Roman Josi vs Seth Jones

Better Defenseman Moving Forward


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Web In Front

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Feb 1, 2020
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Does the brain stop learning at age 26 and nobody told me?!

You never stop "learning" but the human brain does finish developing at 25, which was the discussion.

This is more of a pet theory of mine than something I've crunched the numbers on but, logically, you would think the average age at which players at each position break into the NHL would also be the average age at which all players at that position peak. So for example if the average forward plays his first season as a NHL regular at 22, average defenseman at 23, average goalie at 25 we can probably conclude that forwards, defenseman and goalies as a whole also peak at those ages on average.

Bringing it back to this discussion, you almost never see a defenseman have a real NHL career after breaking into the league at 26 so it's pretty safe to conclude they peak before then.
 
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Hischier and Hughes

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Jan 28, 2018
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Both Josi and Piets started playing top pairing minutes later in their careers then Jones.

I don't see much of a difference between Piets season at 22 and last year. Josi's increased impact is largely because he previously had Subban or Weber eating up offensive minutes.

As I outlined above. We likely see little improvement to Jones' game because he's already been playing in a role that gives him every opportunity to succeed.
Josi and Jones both started playing over 22 atoi at the exact same age

Plus what does any of this actually matter? Pietrangelo Hedman and Josi can all get better between 26-30 but Jones cant because he played a better 21 year old season than the other three?

Its not like we are arguing Jones will get bigger and stronger. Being a better player can include changes in mentality or thought processing as more time passes.
 
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Gurglesons

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Josi and Jones both started playing over 22 atoi at the exact same age

Plus what does any of this actually matter? Pietrangelo Hedman and Josi can all get better between 26-30 but Jones cant because he played a better 21 year old season than the other three?

Its not like we are arguing Jones will get bigger and stronger. Being a better player can include changes in mentality or thought processing as more time passes.

I mean, number one I don’t think any of those three has gotten notably “better” between 26-30.

Number two, I didn’t say Jones can’t get better, I just don’t really see what would improve his game or what situations he isn’t playing in would boost his value. Versus Hedman’s team getting better, Piets getting softer minutes due to the defensive success of Parayko or Josi getting more powerplay and offensive minutes with the departure of Weber then Subban.
 

Ryan Michaels

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Mar 21, 2017
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So?

Pietrangelo played the best hockey of his life at ages 29 and 30 and got a huge deal for it. Josi is better now at 30 than he was at 26. Hedman just played his best hockey at 29 about to turn 30.

Seth Jones isnt not going to improve simply because hes 26

There are certainly valid examples, some much more stark than the ones you listed(Keith, Chara), but it's also important to note that a few examples doesn't disprove the idea. Can Seth Jones improve? Absolutely, and he's good enough already it might be worth gambling on in this poll. Alternatively, he could also be the pick here without improving if Josi declines, so there's certainly an aergument. However, the expectation(by no means a guarantee) should be that he is what he is.
 

Dirtyf1ghter

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Aug 7, 2019
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Really very surprised with the result. I don't have the last NHL game but if I had to put notes on both players, I will put 90 for Josi and 87 for Jones. I think Werenski is a better player than Jones.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Jun 14, 2017
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I haven't watched Jones a lot in Columbus, but I did look at most of their playoff games this year, and he really impressed me. I thought maybe he just needed one more dash of... ?confidence? maybe to really start taking charge of games, in a Hedman-esque way. Is that how he always plays, through whole seasons? I don't know.

But I do see Josi all the time, and he has basically been handed the keys in Nashville now, and that's good and bad both. He's probably the one who is getting a little overrated here. Not many defensemen get the green light to run the whole offense. He has it and he did well with it. Well on that side of the ice. But he's still pretty weak in his own zone, and he wears the C for a team that is kind of floundering for leadership and chemistry. Josi isn't as good as he's being made out to be here.

I'd take Jones in general, for a neutral team. But of course as a Preds fan I also wouldn't trade Josi for Jones, since we're kind of hitched to Josi's wagon now and sentimentally attached to him. If you don't have that connection though, I can't see why you'd take him over Jones.
 

Paul4587

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Jan 26, 2006
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Josi is better but moving forward I take the guy 4 years younger and on the right side of 30.
 

Gurglesons

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I think for D men it certainly does.

D men age better than forwards and generally peak much later. Not uncommon for a D man’s peak years to be in that 28-34 years old range.

So why would you not take Josi if you subscribe to this view? He’d have four more years of prime play and I don’t think anyone can dispute Jones at this point in time is better than Josi.
 

3074326

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Apr 9, 2009
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Really very surprised with the result. I don't have the last NHL game but if I had to put notes on both players, I will put 90 for Josi and 87 for Jones. I think Werenski is a better player than Jones.

I don't see the argument here. Watched a ridiculous amount of both players. Love Werenski.. but I'd take Jones 10/10 times. (CBJ are my #2, and I live in Columbus)

In regards to the poll, Josi is better now.. but this is about going forward. Both are strong enough to carry the D though.
 
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snipes

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So why would you not take Josi if you subscribe to this view? He’d have four more years of prime play and I don’t think anyone can dispute Jones at this point in time is better than Josi.

I voted Josi lol

That was my point, Josi has several peak years remaining.

This is common wisdom for good reason, D is a very difficult position to break in at for young players. They have almost always, generally speaking, peaked later than forwards.

It’s far, far more common for D men to have their best years well into their 30s compared to forwards which are generally mid 2oish years for peak years.

D men generally have longer and later peak seasons compared to forwards. Hence why drafting and developing at this position is so crucial (ideal path is 2 more years of junior + 2 or more AHL years before NHL games slowly worked into the lineup after the draft). Whereas high end forwards outside of the 1-2 overall pick you can take them in their D+2 and plug them into the lineup.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Who is better right now?
I'm not entirely sure... Josi has a more "refined" sense of offense, anyway. But he also has enormously greater opportunity. He can literally do anything he wants anytime he wants, and that's part of his team's structure. I doubt Jones feels he has quite the same freedoms. Not many defensemen do, nor can they thrive in that situation even if they did. So it's almost a moot point. But I suspect if Jones was leading every rush, felt free to go deep on every single play, he'd probably produce points at a very similar level to Josi. He might not look quite as silky smooth doing it as Josi does, and he'd accumulate some proportion of those points with more of a brawny approach than Josi does with offensive IQ. But they wouldn't seem quite so different just in terms of raw numbers anymore. And then I think Jones' size, reach, and physical strength continue to make him a better defensive zone player. Josi to his credit does get back pretty well after he goes up ice, and he is reasonably crafty in his defensive game. But he still doesn't possess the attributes to be a truly imposing defensive zone player like Jones can be. Jones might actually be the better player right now. But you can't quite tell for sure, given their different utilization?
:dunno:
 
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Gurglesons

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I'm not entirely sure... Josi has a more "refined" sense of offense, anyway. But he also has enormously greater opportunity. He can literally do anything he wants anytime he wants, and that's part of his team's structure. I doubt Jones feels he has quite the same freedoms. Not many defensemen do, nor can they thrive in that situation even if they did. So it's almost a moot point. But I suspect if Jones was leading every rush, felt free to go deep on every single play, he'd probably produce points at a very similar level to Josi. He might not look quite as silky smooth doing it as Josi does, and he'd accumulate some proportion of those points with more of a brawny approach than Josi does with offensive IQ. But they wouldn't seem quite so different just in terms of raw numbers anymore. And then I think Jones' size, reach, and physical strength continue to make him a better defensive zone player. Josi to his credit does get back pretty well after he goes up ice, and he is reasonably crafty in his defensive game. But he still doesn't possess the attributes to be a truly imposing defensive zone player like Jones can be. Jones might actually be the better player right now. But you can't quite tell for sure, given their different utilization?
:dunno:

No, it is Josi. He had nearly double Jones production and was better defensively too.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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No, it is Josi. He had nearly double Jones production and was better defensively too.
Is Jones that bad defensively? I don't watch him enough to know. He has the physical tools to be good defensively, and I liked the way he was using them in the playoffs. But maybe he struggles with consistency?

The way he played in the playoffs anyway was far better than anything Josi can manage defensively. But maybe it's not a representative sample. I can only speak for Josi... he's not good defensively. But the way he's utilized allows his offense to more than compensate for that.
 

Krewe

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Mar 12, 2019
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Is Jones that bad defensively? I don't watch him enough to know. He has the physical tools to be good defensively, and I liked the way he was using them in the playoffs. But maybe he struggles with consistency?

The way he played in the playoffs anyway was far better than anything Josi can manage defensively. But maybe it's not a representative sample. I can only speak for Josi... he's not good defensively. But the way he's utilized allows his offense to more than compensate for that.

The first bolded is basically the problem with Jones. Dude is obviously a very skilled player with amazing physical tools. But it doesn't result in elite results (or even 1D-level results). That's because his decision-making is very suspect and he gets burned a lot for it. There are a number of articles going over this topic with a combination of video review and analytics.

And, FWIW, he got caved in this year in the playoffs in terms of scoring chances, etc. Don't let the flashy skating and shots fool you, he was not good against tampa.

If the guy can clean up his game he would be amazing, but he has yet to actually impact the game in an elite way for anything more than small stretches at a time. All the tools but way too many mistakes.
 

canuckking1

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Feb 8, 2015
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Josi is definitely better than Jones even if I think he's underrated by the analytics crowd. The only guy I could say is definitely better than Josi right now would be Hedman.
 

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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The first bolded is basically the problem with Jones. Dude is obviously a very skilled player with amazing physical tools. But it doesn't result in elite results (or even 1D-level results). That's because his decision-making is very suspect and he gets burned a lot for it. There are a number of articles going over this topic with a combination of video review and analytics.

And, FWIW, he got caved in this year in the playoffs in terms of scoring chances, etc. Don't let the flashy skating and shots fool you, he was not good against tampa.

If the guy can clean up his game he would be amazing, but he has yet to actually impact the game in an elite way for anything more than small stretches at a time. All the tools but way too many mistakes.

This is the sort of take I'd expect from people casually skimming analytics articles written by people who didn't understand Jones' game to begin with.

Seth Jones is not a mistake prone player that gets "burned". He maybe got beat once or twice in the whole playoffs. He doesn't turn the puck over much in his end or in the neutral zone. And if he is tasked with it he can be very aggressive defensively and usually prevent opponents from even getting a shot off. There is this Jack Han video where he says Jones gives up the zone so much because of his "inferior glide". In reality, Jones was known for being an expert zone denial D-man until the last couple years when Torts has increasingly pushed his D-men into a turtle defensive posture where they easily give up the outside of their zone.

The reason Seth Jones isn't quite on the level of a Hedman or Josi is entirely in the offensive end. Jones can carry the puck into the offensive end no problem, he doesn't turn it over much at all until that point. But his vision and handling from the blueline forward are not elite, those qualities of his are actually barely average. He'll pick up a decent amount of points because of his shot and pass quality but he often fails to find passing lanes or curl in tight spaces to buy time. Instead you'll see him rim the puck and cautiously scoot back into a defensive posture. It's an interesting contrast with Jones' 3v3 play where he dominates in the extra space. I don't have the stats handy but last I checked he was by far the top scoring 3v3 D-man over the last four seasons.

The idea of Jones being a mistake prone player who gets frequently burned is obviously ignorant, and he certainly wasn't getting burned and hanging Korpisalo and Merzlikins out to dry in the playoffs. He was always where he was supposed to be: in the middle of his own zone, that or playing man coverage on someone like Matthews. He only got scored on four times across 250+ 5v5 minutes. You can argue that he wasn't playing enough of a possession oriented game, but that's more of a coaching thing. Jones certainly wasn't caved in relative to his teammates.
 
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