Robin Lehner, Thomas Griess predictions/“The Korn Effect”

[Quicklime]

I’ve seen a thread or two on scoring predictions, though I wanted to talk goalies.

While it’s a roundabout way to start, it may not be something that should be so shocking in hindsight that the #5 US-born scorer in NHL history could be lackluster as a coach when it comes to defense. I’m of the opinion that this team has untapped defensive potential under the right coach (Trotz.)

A good system allows guys like Pelech, Mayfield and Boychuk the space to avoid juggling every lost assignment on the ice so they can bear the positional burden accurately, letting Lehner and Greiss to do their jobs without getting overwhelmed every game.

Anyone have any predictions on how these guys could do, or think Korn can turn the clock back to 2011 & 2017, respectively? If Trotz can successfully revamp the D, can Lehner & Greiss combine for ~40 wins with Korn’s tutelage?

My guess at the (very) high side:
Lehner: 47GP - 25W - 18L - 4OTL
Greiss: 35GP - 16W - 12L - 7OL

Goals Against Average and Save Pct. I’m leaving out - especially since Lehner’s numbers are hard to gauge in Buffalo.

Discuss!

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[seabass45]

I’ll guess .915 for both. Can’t predict wins and losses, too much depends on the rest of the team but i expect close to league average for save percentage. Can’t be worse than last year.

 

[SI90]

Though to predict. Both guys have gone stretches where they’ve been amazing and both have looked like trash.

I’ve always been a bit higher on Lehner than most.

I guess a lot depends on our defense as well. If our goalies aren’t constantly being left out to dry like last year I suspect they will have decent save percentages

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

This might be the worst goalie tandem in the league. This Korn guy better have some magic.

 

[Brunomics]

This might be the worst goalie tandem in the league. This Korn guy better have some magic.

Really? I feel they are both a victim of awful teams in front of them last year.

Greiss is nowhere near as bad as last year. Look at his previous years with the Isles. He'll end up much more in that range than the previous year. I'd say somewhere around. I'd say somewhere around a 2.50 GAA and a .916 save percentage.

Lehner the same. Look what he did in Buffalo his first 80 games. I think he's closer to that that last year. 2.45 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

Before you just both guys from last year look at what was happening in front of them. 95% of the goalies in the league would have had bad numbers here last year.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

This might be the worst goalie tandem in the league. This Korn guy better have some magic.

We base such thoughts on last season.

Can't speak for a very hapless Buffalo team, but the amount of shots Greiss often faced last season was ridonculous. Granted, he lost a few games on his own (i.e. that 6-5 home loss to the Senators was a disgrace, and he was terribly weak on 4 of those goals against).

But take the 2016-17 version of both and it's a much different story:
Greiss = 2.69 GAA, .913 SV%, 26-18-5
Lehner = 2.68 GAA, .920 SV%, 23-26-8

Korn only needs to get these guys to do what they've done before.

If he does, that could have us in playoff contention right on up to the deadline.

 

[SCMURRAY]

If the goalie coaches can get these guys around 2.5 GAA and Trotz can help this defense id be more then happy

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

We base such thoughts on last season.

Well, I'm basing it on that Lehner was basically the last goalie off the board in the summer. The team signed him for 1 year for basically no money which kinda translates to that nobody wanted him and nobody is confident in him. Plus, Greiss is a backup.

 

[Thrasymachus]

Maybe pump the breaks until they play a few games

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Maybe pump the breaks until they play a few games

Sure. But, I'm just calling it as I see it now. It's not the best situation. One guy is on a show me deal, the other is an overpaid backup.

 

[BTrotts19]

I personally am modestly optimistic for both. As bad as Greiss was last year, I think a large part of that was the shitty defense and the pathetic systems. Though years ago now, I won't forget how Greiss and Judas were the ONLY reasons we won that playoff series against the Cats and at times he stole a couple of games for the team last year so I think with better systems under Trotz and Korn to go to on closing up major gaps in the crease so I could see him being in the .914-.919 range. Lehrer is more of a wildcard but with the show me deal he is getting here, I could see him being very motivated and willing to listen to experienced goalie coaches and I think he has the tools to be very good.

 

[Metnut]

I think Greiss is going to have a bigtime bounceback year. He'd been underrated for a while, and then last year happened and he was completely awful. He's not at an age where goalies typically lose it, and he's been training like crazy in the offseason, so I'm optimistic that he's going to be strong for us next year after having a training camp with Korn.

 

[doublechili]

The Isles last year gave up a huge quantity of shots, but the bigger problem was the quality of shots they gave up.

If Trotz can get the team to reduce the quantity of shots and especially push them out of the slot area, then Korn does not necessarily have to be a miracle-worker (although it would help!).

 

[Sleestak Nation]

This discussion make me sad.

Wither Ilya S

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

I think Greiss is going to have a bigtime bounceback year. He'd been underrated for a while, and then last year happened and he was completely awful. He's not at an age where goalies typically lose it, and he's been training like crazy in the offseason, so I'm optimistic that he's going to be strong for us next year after having a training camp with Korn.

He was overrated before he was underrated. Our ex-goalie ex-GM had a beef with Halak/Halak's agent, so Greiss got big money and the number 1 spot without having to earn it. What he did with it is clear to see. A defensive system overhaul may help, but Greiss is a career backup.

 

[PK Cronin]

He was overrated before he was underrated. Our ex-goalie ex-GM had a beef with Halak/Halak's agent, so Greiss got big money and the number 1 spot without having to earn it. What he did with it is clear to see. A defensive system overhaul may help, but Greiss is a career backup.

Fans went nuts about how great Greiss was and how he was better than Halak after that playoff run. It's crazy how people only look at the "what have you done for me lately" angle.

 

[varano]

Lehner is actually a good goalie who has never had a competent goalie coach.

 

[Sheva7]

.914sv% for Lehner
.910sv% for Greiss

 

[Team Cozens]

Sad story in the Athletic today about Lehner and mental health. Very brave of him to come forward. Wishing him the best.

 

[Brunomics]

Sad story in the Athletic today about Lehner and mental health. Very brave of him to come forward. Wishing him the best.

Hope nothing but the best for him. I'll really be rooting for Lehner to get a handle on this. It cannot be easy to live life like that.

 

[d0wn70wn]

I feel it's less Korn and more Trotz. Team D kills goalies. Isles basically had historically bad team D once Dougie took over. Its boring at this point b/c it's been the line since they signed Trotz, but it hinges on how the roster takes to the system. They still have the offensive weapons (like every other team in the league) and their personnel on the back end looks average on paper. There's no reason other than systemic breakdown that they should have been so horrendous last season. I think they'll be fighting for a playoff spot (like 5-6 other teams in the loser point system). Caps, Pens, Jackets top 3 then hopefully Isles can sneak in. But just typing that - Pens D personnel has been ridiculously thin past few seasons and they've had success b/c of systems. Kinda makes the point.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'd like to see what Korn can do with Sorokin. This may be the big payoff down the line.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Fans went nuts about how great Greiss was and how he was better than Halak after that playoff run. It's crazy how people only look at the "what have you done for me lately" angle.

I never thought he was better than Halak. Garth Snow's circus act made the goalie controversy happen, anyway.

 

[PK Cronin]

I never thought he was better than Halak. Garth Snow's circus act made the goalie controversy happen, anyway.

Both goalies being inconsistent and having hot stretches led to the controversy in my mind, followed by how Snow handled it. I really liked Halak and the way he was mistreated after a great first year was such a shame.



I'm going to have to check out this latest article on the Athletic. Seems interesting.

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

Lehner 920
Griess 902