Speculation: Robert Hägg

deadhead

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Hagg's having a very weird year, pre-Tahoe he was off to a putrid start (was he out of shape going into camp?).
Post-Tahoe he's putting up elite metrics.
Now some of that is the sheltered role effect on metrics, Gudas is exhibit A, always has good metrics yet generally confined to the 3rd pairing.
But after 22 games, Hagg looks like the light went on, he's playing more under control.

Hagg is never going to be more than a big limited 3rd line D-man, but if he continues to refine his game, he can play another 10 years, these are the guys who get shopped around at the TDL for 3rd rd picks every February because playoff teams don't want to be forced to play the Prossers of this world for an extended period if a real defenseman goes down with an injury.
 

Beef Invictus

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Even with his horrid start this season, Hagg ranks (among 175 D-men with 450+ 5x5 minutes):
89th in xGF%
46th in CF%
76th in xGA/60
97th in HDCA/60
PDO .984

Since Lake Tahoe he's posted some ridiculous metrics:
CF 56.26%, CFrel +0.57, xGF 56.21%, xGFrel +3.28
22 games is a sizeable sample.

Is he as good as these metrics? Of course not.
Has he made a significant jump since Tahoe? Of course.
At 25, with an affordable salary, he's an attractive 3rd pair guy at this point in his career.

So Seattle will have to choose between Ghost and Hagg?

It's really a testament to those who've had to step up to carry him to this.

Because his actual on ice processes were the same trash heap the whole time.

It's especially funny that you point to expected offense when he spent the whole year deferring transition and breakout play to wherever his partner was while doing nothing at all to drive play.
 

deadhead

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Except his rel stats during that period are better than Ghost and Sanheim.
If he was being carried, they should be far worse, that is, they play better without him on the ice.
 

Beef Invictus

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Except his rel stats during that period are better than Ghost and Sanheim.
If he was being carried, they should be far worse, that is, they play better without him on the ice.

When a selection of stats does not remotely match the actual on ice performance of a player, and nothing the player is doing is in line with those stats, something is wrong. He's the same passenger as ever.
 

Starat327

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When a selection of stats does not remotely match the actual on ice performance of a player, and nothing the player is doing is in line with those stats, something is wrong. He's the same passenger as ever.

It's funny how stats are the end all be all when they fit the argument.

But when the posters self admitted preferred way of evaluating defensive abilities matched up to a player he doesn't like we completely invalidated all concepts of statistical analysis because they couldn't possibly be right.

It really is funny how that works.
 

Beef Invictus

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Even now his moments of praise come from when he makes plays that are regular, common occurrences for NHL dmen, even bottom pair players. But they aren't regular, common occurrences for him so it's neat to see him step up. Says a lot.
 
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Beef Invictus

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It's funny how stats are the end all be all when they fit the argument.

But when the posters self admitted preferred way of evaluating defensive abilities matched up to a player he doesn't like we completely invalidated all concepts of statistical analysis because they couldn't possibly be right.

It really is funny how that works.

Yeah.

I've always strongly preferred matching stats to actual play. The player should be doing things that justify their stats. The two products should line up.
 

Starat327

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Yeah.

I've always strongly preferred matching stats to actual play. The player should be doing things that justify their stats. The two products should line up.

The problem is most people can't look past an error and engrain that error in their head. Yes, Ghost made some bone headed plays this year. However, that doesn't invalidate all of the good and exceptional plays he made instead, which were much more frequent.

But, because that one time he turned it over and had a goal scored against him, it means he can't play D.

The fact of the matter is he was our best all around defensemen this year, and both the eye test and stats back that up.
 

Beef Invictus

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The problem is most people can't look past an error and engrain that error in their head. Yes, Ghost made some bone headed plays this year. However, that doesn't invalidate all of the good and exceptional plays he made instead, which were much more frequent.

But, because that one time he turned it over and had a goal scored against him, it means he can't play D.

The fact of the matter is he was our best all around defensemen this year, and both the eye test and stats back that up.

Myers last year was a good example. He had a lot of good stats but he was doing a lot of really silly stuff on the ice. Regression wasn't a surprise.
 

deadhead

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If Ghost is our best defenseman, we're in trouble, shades of Streit being on our 1st pair.
2014 Streit, MDZ were 1/2 in TOI, ES TOI.
2015 MDZ and Streit were 1/2 in TOI. MDZ, AMac, Streit top 3 in ES TOI.
AMAC and Streit were the top D-men on the Islanders at one point.

Point is Ghost at this point in his career is Streit, with the same strengths and weaknesses.
On a good team, he'd be #5 and PP1 QB.
Which is why we need a solid RHD to pair with Provorov, and be patient with Sanheim/Myers.
 
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Beef Invictus

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If Ghost is our best defenseman, we're in trouble, shades of Streit being on our 1st pair.
2014 Streit, MDZ were 1/2 in TOI, ES TOI.
2015 MDZ and Streit were 1/2 in TOI. MDZ, AMac, Streit top 3 in ES TOI.
AMAC and Streit were the top D-men on the Islanders at one point.

Point is Ghost at this point in his career is Streit, with the same strengths and weaknesses.
On a good team, he'd be #5 and PP1 QB.
Which is why we need a solid RHD to pair with Provorov, and be patient with Sanheim/Myers.

I'd say we have indeed been in trouble this year, yes. Ideally Provorov should be clearly better as well as Sanheim.
 
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deadhead

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Even now his moments of praise come from when he makes plays that are regular, common occurrences for NHL dmen, even bottom pair players. But they aren't regular, common occurrences for him so it's neat to see him step up. Says a lot.

Says he's a 3rd pair guy, like a 100 or so (not just the 64 who start, but the #7th D-man on every team who ends up playing half the season due to injuries). But he's becoming a good third pair guy, which has real value, if not to us (if we're lucky and Zamula, Millman, Andrae pan out) then to some other team.
 

BritainStix

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It's funny how stats are the end all be all when they fit the argument.

But when the posters self admitted preferred way of evaluating defensive abilities matched up to a player he doesn't like we completely invalidated all concepts of statistical analysis because they couldn't possibly be right.

It really is funny how that works.
I'd argue this goes both ways. There is a terribly boring pissing contest between two select small groups of posters on this forum. They are both such extremes that it's endless. The passive agressive comment's are laughable from both to get around directly calling each other out.

The rest of us just have to put up with it because they can't agree to disagree. It's f***ing childish and matches the apathy most of us have for this organisation at the moment.
 

Beef Invictus

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Says he's a 3rd pair guy, like a 100 or so (not just the 64 who start, but the #7th D-man on every team who ends up playing half the season due to injuries). But he's becoming a good third pair guy, which has real value, if not to us (if we're lucky and Zamula, Millman, Andrae pan out) then to some other team.

3rd pair guys can make routine NHL plays more than a couple times a game at most.

He really isn't becoming a good 3rd pair guy. The last few games have featured far too much of him freezing up in one spot and then forcing his partner to play both sides. When he's with Braun and he does that it's a total disaster, and this tendency is normal for him. It's also not normal for any regular NHLer.
 

Starat327

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I cant help but wonder if the people who are willing to invalidate Haggs 200+ games of below replacement play are willing to also admit that Laughton is an overpaid, 9 point 4th liner. After all, over that same sample, Laughton has regressed pretty tremendously, so...good for the goose, good for the gander, no?

Oh, I'm also curious how Sanheim after 200 games played "is what he is" but Hagg is having this crazy metamorphosis ( and make no mistake, him going from ECHL level to passable #7 is a ridiculous metamorphosis) and were all supposed to just believe he's turned a corner?

I love when people blow holes in their own logic.
 

deadhead

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3rd pair guys can make routine NHL plays more than a couple times a game at most.

He really isn't becoming a good 3rd pair guy. The last few games have featured far toouch of him freezing up in one spot and then forcing his partner to play both sides. When he's with Braun and he does that it's a total disaster, and this tendency is normal for him. It's also not normal for any regular NHLer.

Not really, there are a lot of bad defensemen starting around the NHL. The supply is always greater at the fatter portion of the talent tail.
Just think how often we force turnovers against them when our forecheck is humming.

When you get down to #6 on most teams, you're just hoping they don't screw up on a regular basis.
Hagg has reduced his screw-ups to an acceptable rate since Tahoe, and he actually has a passable offensive skill set.
He may not please you aesthetically, but he has become functional.
 
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Starat327

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I'd argue this goes both ways. There is a terribly boring pissing contest between two select small groups of posters on this forum. They are both such extremes that it's endless. The passive agressive comment's are laughable from both to get around directly calling each other out.

The rest of us just have to put up with it because they can't agree to disagree. It's f***ing childish and matches the apathy most of us have for this organisation at the moment.

I tried having a direct conversation, and the poster instead just wanted to lie and make arguments only applicable to players in which they didn't or did have an agenda. Being truthful around here appears to be a lost art.

There's an extremely easy way for you to not have to see either side of the argument, as well.
 
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Striiker

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When a selection of stats does not remotely match the actual on ice performance of a player, and nothing the player is doing is in line with those stats, something is wrong. He's the same passenger as ever.
Yup. Stats can't really be wrong*, they can only be misinterpreted or lacking context. That's why when you see a stat that doesn't match the eye test, you can usually find a reason for why that's happening.

Perfect example was when people were pointing to Hagg's possession stats, which didn't come close to matching his individual quality of play. Sure enough, it was explained by both looking at who he was playing with and the fact that when guys like Sanheim or Ghost were paired with him, they got much more offensive zone starts than when away from him. He was bad, they were very good, mystery solved.

Or another great example would be when people were fooled by Laughton's raw scoring numbers, which was easily explained by looking at his shockingly high individual and on-ice shooting %s. And exactly as was predicted, they came crashing back down to Earth because regression to the mean is a real thing.

*assuming there wasn't a counting/equation error
 

Beef Invictus

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Not really, there are a lot of bad defensemen starting around the NHL. The supply is always greater at the fatter portion of the talent tail.
Just think how often we force turnovers against them when our forecheck is humming.

When you get down to #6 on most teams, you're just hoping they don't screw up on a regular basis.
Hagg has reduced his screw-ups to an acceptable rate since Tahoe, and he actually has a passable offensive skill set.
He may not please you aesthetically, but he has become functional.

There are a lot of bad defensemen and Hagg is among the absolute worst of them. We have better players.

He has not become functional. The disconnect between his numbers and his on-ice processes is absolutely massive. That gulf dwarfs the gap that existed last year between Myers' play and his stats, and we've seen what that regression can look like.

Gambling on Hagg because of absolutely inexplicable stats is a way to make your team worse and bleed points for no reason.
 

Beef Invictus

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Yup. Stats can't really be wrong*, they can only be misinterpreted or lacking context. That's why when you see a stat that doesn't match the eye test, you can usually find a reason for why that's happening.

Perfect example was when people were pointing to Hagg's possession stats, which didn't come close to matching his individual quality of play. Sure enough, it was explained by both looking at who he was playing with and the fact that when guys like Sanheim or Ghost were paired with him, they got much more offensive zone starts than when away from him. He was bad, they were very good, mystery solved.

Or another great example would be when people were fooled by Laughton's raw scoring numbers, which was easily explained by looking at his shockingly high individual and on-ice shooting %s. And exactly as was predicted, they came crashing back down to Earth because regression to the mean is a real thing.

*assuming there wasn't a counting/equation error

One of the big improvements in Hagg this year is that he far more heavily defers to his partners.

That being less involved ends up being a big positive for the team is not a good omen. The team is better served by having someone who can be involved and effective.
 

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