Speculation: Ristolainen's Price is High, Sabres Want a Mantha-Caliber Player in Return

[Gniwder]

I said he was a younger Mike Green, as to say he is significantly younger than Mike Green, but plays a similar game. I don’t know if you interpreted it to be a comparison to Mike Green from early in his career, which was absolutely not the comparison I was making.

Fair enough, but when you say "younger Mike Green", I think of Mike Green when he was younger.

It's really misleading to take an older declining player and use the word "younger" with it while comparing current stats and style of play. It would be like saying Nemeth is a younger Jay Bouwmeester, just because they both have similar stats right now.

 

[obey86]

Worth noting Burns top output in Minnesota was 46 points as a minus 10 player.

He didn't break 50 points until 2015 at the age of 30. And despite scoring 650 career points, he's only a +15.

Wasn't he a forward in Minny? Or did he play some defense there too? I don't really remember.

EDIT: Looking at his TOI in Minny, he was definitely a defenseman towards the end.

 

[obey86]

What are you even saying?

You tried to rationalize his poor +/- by saying he plays more minutes than Mantha. While true, it doesn't mean he's a better player, as I (or you'd like a more realistic example, any crappy NHL defenseman) could also play more minutes than Mantha and put up a worse +/-. Play Ericsson 25 min a game and he could probably be a -40 also...does that mean he's good too?

TLDR: Playing more minutes and putting up a league worst +/- is not an accomplishment, just because you happened to play more minutes.

 

[Bench]

Wasn't he a forward in Minny? Or did he play some defense there too? I don't really remember.

EDIT: Looking at his TOI in Minny, he was definitely a defenseman towards the end.

Yeah, he was on the top pair by the time he was traded. It was considered a huge win getting both Devin Setoguchi and Charlie Coyle in the deal for him. Some choice quotes from 2011:

-Absolute Robbery by the Wild.

-This. So much. Fantastic trade for the Wild! Burns was overrated.

-I am a Sharks fan. And yes, you robbed us. have you anything positive to say about Burns? What are we getting?

-This trade is full of win for the Wild.

-I liked Burns. But yeah, you make this deal every single day of the week. Perhaps the Wild are starting to realize you can’t stock your roster full of defensemen. Liking the future for this organization.

-It sounds like the Wild are actually sinking the ship a little to build a respectable team for the future. It’s about time
(I love this quote because it's one summer before they signed Suter and Parise to $100 million dollar deals)

 

[Leadzedder]

Not to derail the conversation but I read the occasional bit about how brutal AA will be in negotiations.

Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t AA went thru 2 negotiations. The first was painful. The second was super easy. I believe he was the first one to sign his bridge deal.

I should have went and made sure this is correct before posting but that’s how I remember it. Maybe it will be a difficult signing but it’s not guaranteed to be.


Edit... just took a peak. He signed his bridge July 5. Last year. 3 mil for 2 years. Mantha signed July 11. 3.3.

I don’t remember any negative noise at all.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

People still use +/- as a stat? Its a ridiculous stat that is more of a team stat than player stat. Outdated.

Basing trades on +/- is ludicrous.

 

[Hen Kolland]

People still use +/- as a stat? Its a ridiculous stat that is more of a team stat than player stat. Outdated.

Basing trades on +/- is ludicrous.

It’s an indicator of bigger problems. He’s so dependent on powerplay for his offense that he can’t mask his deficiency in his own zone. He doesn’t drive strong possession or scoring numbers. He has a negative relative Corsi, a negative relative GF%, a negative relative xGF%, meaning his team is better than him on average.

Hard to buy any of the stuff you guys try to come over and sell because all you can do is say “he’s not that bad” but don’t have anything to suggest that he does anything all that well.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

It’s an indicator of bigger problems. He’s so dependent on powerplay for his offense that he can’t mask his deficiency in his own zone. He doesn’t drive strong possession or scoring numbers. He has a negative relative Corsi, a negative relative GF%, a negative relative xGF%, meaning his team is better than him on average.

Hard to buy any of the stuff you guys try to come over and sell because all you can do is say “he’s not that bad” but don’t have anything to suggest that he does anything all that well.

Then don't trade for him. Easy peasy. Its not like Mantha is some superstar. The guy is a 20 goal scorer. Nothing special. He has not even topped 50 points.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

You tried to rationalize his poor +/- by saying he plays more minutes than Mantha. While true, it doesn't mean he's a better player, as I (or you'd like a more realistic example, any crappy NHL defenseman) could also play more minutes than Mantha and put up a worse +/-. Play Ericsson 25 min a game and he could probably be a -40 also...does that mean he's good too?

TLDR: Playing more minutes and putting up a league worst +/- is not an accomplishment, just because you happened to play more minutes.

I think Risto is the better player.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Then don't trade for him. Easy peasy. Its not like Mantha is some superstar. The guy is a 20 goal scorer. Nothing special. He has not even topped 50 points.

Cool. Why don’t you find your way back to your own board? I think it’s been made abundantly clear that a majority of us don’t have the slightest hint of interest in giving up Mantha for Risto. You are the one who went out of your way to come to another team’s board and in the process try to talk down about their player because they don’t like yours.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Cool. Why don’t you find your way back to your own board? I think it’s been made abundantly clear that a majority of us don’t have the slightest hint of interest in giving up Mantha for Risto. You are the one who went out of your way to come to another team’s board and in the process try to talk down about their player because they don’t like yours.

Why does he have to leave? Because he is saying the truth?

 

[Claypool]

Then don't trade for him. Easy peasy. Its not like Mantha is some superstar. The guy is a 20 goal scorer. Nothing special. He has not even topped 50 points.

The old “your player is not that great but we’d love to take him off your hands for our garbage” proposal.

 

[Bench]

People still use +/- as a stat? Its a ridiculous stat that is more of a team stat than player stat. Outdated.

Basing trades on +/- is ludicrous.

I'm in favor of kicking tires on Risto pretty hard, but his advanced metrics are a tire fire, too. I think part of that is how much has been asked of him in Buffalo without help. The other part is he needs to stabilize his defensive game. Niskanen is a good example of a player that has done that after a rocky first few years.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

The old “your player is not that great but we’d love to take him off your hands for our garbage” proposal.

Risto is not "garbage" compared to Mantha...

 

[Hen Kolland]

Why does he have to leave? Because he is saying the truth?

Because all he has said is “you’re wrong, +/- isn’t real” and discredited Mantha’s value. Even you know Mantha’s value is twofold. You know he’s a low end to average first line forward, and you acknowledge the potential he has to be more than that. Saying he’s a 20 goal scorer and unable to hit 50 points is cherry picking at its finest.

I’m perfectly fine with people coming if they want to have a real discussion, but he hasn’t really done that.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Risto is not as good as Mantha. I think we’ll keep him, unless you wanna add a pick.

Yeah screw Buffalo for wanting value for one of only 9 dmen in the entire league to score 41+ points each of the last 4 years.

Oh and last 3 seasons

Risto - 129 points
Mantha - 132 points

Sorry, but a one dimensional winger fed high OZS every year is not worth far more then Risto. He isn't worth even a little more then Risto. They hold the same value at worst or Risto holds the higher value. Oh and Mantha is actually older then Risto. 25 year old dman with 4 straight 41+ point seasons AND 4 straight seasons of 24:30+ atoi per game is just as valuable if not moreso then the 25 year old winger who hasn't surpassed 50 points in a season yet.

Blame Manthas injuries for ruining his pace all you want but that is even more of a knock on his value. Mantha nearly missed more games due to injury this past season then Risto has missed due to injury in his whole career. Mantha missed 15 games this past season. Risto has missed 17 games in his entire career due to injury and 3 due to suspension. Enough with the Risto disrespect.

Yeah well, Risto is a reclamation project at best. You can keep him and we’ll keep the superior Mantha

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Yeah well, Risto is a reclamation project at best. You can keep him and we’ll keep the superior Mantha

Mantha is an average winger in the NHL...

 

[HisNoodliness]

Then don't trade for him. Easy peasy. Its not like Mantha is some superstar. The guy is a 20 goal scorer. Nothing special. He has not even topped 50 points.

Sorry that this turned a little nasty. Risto's offense certainly isn't in doubt, but even as one of his fans you have to admit that he does have problems with his defense. Even so I would be willing to pay a decent price to add him as I think he's a good player- just not Mantha. We all are still pretty high on Mantha. He played at a 30 goal pace this year, and can look so very good when he's playing well. Inconsistency, Blashill's continued inability to recognize that he's a shooting threat instead of a net-front pigeon and injuries have held him back from his potential, but Wings fans aren't willing to give up on it yet.

A deal centered around AA (who did have 30 goals this year) would be more welcome.

 

[Snuggs]

Mantha is an average winger in the NHL...

He'd play on the top two lines on more than half the teams in the league so IDK. Slightly above average maybe at 24 years old with upside. He did play 13 less games this year and posted the same numbers basically as the year before when he played 80 games. I thought he took a clear step forward the second half of the season. Just my thoughts.

Go to any forum or any GM, Mention his name in a trade and teams will listen. Not saying they'll give up gold or anything but every team would like Anthony Mantha. Not every team wants Risto with his price/term.

 

[lidstromiscool]

He'd play on the top two lines on more than half the teams in the league so IDK. Slightly above average maybe at 24 years old with upside. He did play 13 less games this year and posted the same numbers basically as the year before when he played 80 games. I thought he took a clear step forward the second half of the season. Just my thoughts.

Go to any forum or any GM, Mention his name in a trade and teams will listen. Not saying they'll give up gold or anything but every team would like Anthony Mantha. Not every team wants Risto with his price/term.

A 24 year old 6'5 winger with a mean streak who has improved every year in the league, and scored at a 30 goal pace is not a league average winger. He's a first line winger, who can become elite in a year or two if he could be more consistent, or play with a #1 center a whole season. If Mantha - Larkin - Bert stay together this upcoming season. 35/30 wouldn't be out of reach for Mantha

 

[deca guard]

A 24 year old 6'5 winger with a mean streak who has improved every year in the league, and scored at a 30 goal pace is not a league average winger. He's a first line winger, who can become elite in a year or two if he could be more consistent, or play with a #1 center a whole season. If Mantha - Larkin - Bert stay together this upcoming season. 35/30 wouldn't be out of reach for Mantha

i really really like the tuzzi-larks-mantha line , and see it as developing into a top 20 line this season with lark n mantha both at 35+ and tuzzi 25+ . but ide really like seeing a new line of aa-larkin-mantha , it could become the most exciting line in nhl and a top 10 scoring line . and theres something to be said about the excitement factor in nhl , the speed of that line would be a huge perk for wing fans plus nhl fans world wide would notice big time if it clicks

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

A 24 year old 6'5 winger with a mean streak who has improved every year in the league, and scored at a 30 goal pace is not a league average winger. He's a first line winger, who can become elite in a year or two if he could be more consistent, or play with a #1 center a whole season. If Mantha - Larkin - Bert stay together this upcoming season. 35/30 wouldn't be out of reach for Mantha

He is not a first line winger on a playoff team.

 

[Claypool]

He is not a first line winger on a playoff team.

And Ristolainen is not a top-pairing defenseman on a playoff team. What's your point?

 

[Gniwder]

Because all he has said is “you’re wrong, +/- isn’t real” and discredited Mantha’s value. Even you know Mantha’s value is twofold. You know he’s a low end to average first line forward, and you acknowledge the potential he has to be more than that. Saying he’s a 20 goal scorer and unable to hit 50 points is cherry picking at its finest.

I’m perfectly fine with people coming if they want to have a real discussion, but he hasn’t really done that.

Dude sounds like a used car salesman, hyping up the car he's got to sell while lowballing your trade-in, lol. Used car salesmen aren't welcome anywhere,.

He is not a first line winger on a playoff team.

Predators? Islanders? Penguins (since they traded Kessel)? Hurricanes? LVGK?
The list might be even longer if he doesn't break his hand again next season, and Blash doesn't screw around with the top line. I think Snuggs has the correct assessment.

I don't see why Stevie would trade for a RHD when he just used the #6OA pick for one. Plus the team has Hronek and traded for Bowey. The team doesn't have a viable replacement for Mantha if they trade him. So there's really no way this trade happens, it's all a moot point. You're more likely to see me skating in a Red Wings uniform this season than Risto. ​

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

And Ristolainen is not a top-pairing defenseman on a playoff team. What's your point?

He is better than Mantha is my point.