Speculation: Ristolainen Trade Discussion - The Return

[littletonhockeycoach]

Rantanen > Marner >> Laine imo

Agreed on Marner being overpaid.

edit: I wouldn't include Reinhart in a deal for Rantanen though, I don't think the upgrade is all that big and Sam will probably be cheaper despite the bridge

So as you can assume, I've watched both Reinhart and Rantanen pretty closely. Reinhart sees the ice so much better than just about anybody much less Rantanen who is sometimes overly focused on his own play. Rants has a superb quick release and snap shot that definitely qualifies as snipe. It's early but it looks to me like VO has that same quality.

One thing people don't seem to notice about Rantanen is that he has a propensity to trip over his skates. A lot. Especially when he's not on his game. His skate blade tips seem to dig in and there she blows.... it's like watching a redwood fall. He's also not very agile on his feet in the defensive mode. His lateral motion - speed and recovery - is lacking.

So I agree with you. I'd keep Sam. He's way more versatile and able to produce w/o Jack. Not so sure Rantanen can produce as well w/o MacKinnon on his line.

 

[yahhockey]

They can keep Laine and we'll take Ehlers. Six years at six million AAV. Last year 30 of Ehlers 37 points were at 5v5 whereas for Laine it was 27 of 50. One visual representation of Laine's 5v5 struggles would be these graphs.
Ehlers:

Laine:

Put Ehlers on PP2 or not on the PP at all. Laine negatively impacts offence and defence 5v5 while positively contributing to the PP. He will be paid more than Ehlers over the next six years and may require more assets to acquire. There may be other Winnipeg players to put on the wish list other than Ehlers however Laine should not be one of them. Buffalo is better off without him.

There is also this blog post and replies which would be akin to comments posted on HFB.
The Winnipeg Jets should not trade Nikolaj Ehlers

 

[toomuchsauce]

They can keep Laine and we'll take Ehlers. Six years at six million AAV. Last year 30 of Ehlers 37 points were at 5v5 whereas for Laine it was 27 of 50. One visual representation of Laine's 5v5 struggles would be these graphs.
Ehlers:

Laine:

Put Ehlers on PP2 or not on the PP at all. Laine negatively impacts offence and defence 5v5 while positively contributing to the PP. He will be paid more than Ehlers over the next six years and may require more assets to acquire. There may be other Winnipeg players to put on the wish list other than Ehlers however Laine should not be one of them Buffalo is better off without him.

There is also this blog post and replies which would be akin to comments posted on HFB.
The Winnipeg Jets should not trade Nikolaj Ehlers

The way to think about Ehlers is less "Should he be the guy the Sabres get back in a Ristolainen trade?" and more "If Winnipeg is willing to entertain the idea of trading him, how can the Sabres create a package, including Ristolainen, that would make Winnipeg agree to trade him?" The hope is that, because Winnipeg is such a bad spot with their D and their 21-year old, former-50-goal-scoring-former-2nd-overall-draft-pick, they'll do something dumb. But, they're not going to be "Ehlers doesn't score in the playoffs so he's bad" levels of dumb, so, presumably, any trade package is going to have to include a prospect that will sting, and I would also assume a high pick, too.

 

[Tatanka]

Watching this Jets Flames game and having a hard time seeing the Jets trade Roslovic for Risto much less Ehlers.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Watching this Jets Flames game and having a hard time seeing the Jets trade Roslovic for Risto much less Ehlers.

Roslovic is the player I’d want from the Jets.

 

[Zman5778]

See the return for Faulk?

That's pretty much what we're looking at for Risto. Maybe we get a touch more since the Blues had to re-up Faulk......but it's not much more.

Given that, I'm keeping Risto.

 

[allsilverdreams]

Ya that trade definitely hurts Risto trade.

 

[sufferer]

It also took another RD off the market for Winnipeg. I'd still hold out hope for something worthwhile from them, but I'm not too hung up on it.

 

[Steddy33]

Someone explain Risto=Faulk trade value. I watched quite a few Carolina games last season and Faulk stood out much of the time in a bad way. Faulk was on a better team and I'm assuming he was playing easier minutes

 

[Sabreality]

See the return for Faulk?

That's pretty much what we're looking at for Risto. Maybe we get a touch more since the Blues had to re-up Faulk......but it's not much more.

Given that, I'm keeping Risto.

I just dont think you can look at trade returns in a vacuum like that. Canes had to (or REALLY wanted to) move Faulk. Canes basically swapped Faulk at 6.5 x7 for Gardiner at 4 x3 + Edmundson at 3x1 + Bokk. I don't see the return for Risto being a Vet on a 1yr deal + an OK prospect.

 

[Zip15]

I just dont think you can look at trade returns in a vacuum like that. Canes had to (or REALLY wanted to) move Faulk. Canes basically swapped Faulk at 6.5 x7 for Gardiner at 4 x3 + Edmundson at 3x1 + Bokk. I don't see the return for Risto being a Vet on a 1yr deal + an OK prospect.

Bokk is Pronman's #50 prospect. If we got Comtois (Pronman's #52 prospect) and some vet from Anaheim, I'd do backflips. I'd also be happy with Vesalainen (Pronman's #60) and Perrault.

 

[jc17]

It only hits the Risto trade if people value them evenly. All it takes is one team to really like a guy for that guy to have higher value. See: Adam Larsson

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It also took another RD off the market for Winnipeg. I'd still hold out hope for something worthwhile from them, but I'm not too hung up on it.

Yep, now there’s only one RHD left on the market, which had to work in our favor. The fact that Risto has three years left - a perfect amount of term imo - also helps us.

that said, I’m not expecting all that much better than the Faulk return

 

[Team Cozens]

Yep, now there’s only one RHD left on the market, which had to work in our favor. The fact that Risto has three years left - a perfect amount of term imo - also helps us.

that said, I’m not expecting all that much better than the Faulk return

Apparently, the Canes and Ducks were talking Faulk so I hope Botts in the phone to Anaheim as we speak. Ducks have a ton of fantastic young prospects.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Apparently, the Canes and Ducks were talking Faulk so I hope Botts in the phone to Anaheim as we speak. Ducks have a ton of fantastic young prospects.

One for one for Zegras. One can dream.

 

[Fezzy126]

Someone explain Risto=Faulk trade value. I watched quite a few Carolina games last season and Faulk stood out much of the time in a bad way. Faulk was on a better team and I'm assuming he was playing easier minutes

I don't get it either... but analytics twitter is a loud voice these days. I'd be shocked if you were able to find a single coach or scout in the league that agrees with that assessment though.

Also, if you believe in WAR/GAR, there's this:

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I don't get it either... but analytics twitter is a loud voice these days. I'd be shocked if you were able to find a single coach or scout in the league that agrees with that assessment though.

Also, if you believe in WAR/GAR, there's this:

View attachment 257067

Jesus, in 3 fewer games Risto played 15% more minutes.

 

[jc17]

I don't get it either... but analytics twitter is a loud voice these days. I'd be shocked if you were able to find a single coach or scout in the league that agrees with that assessment though.

Also, if you believe in WAR/GAR, there's this:

View attachment 257067

Its weird that the analytics group you mention hates risto so much, while this pretty popular stat indicates hes ok, not awful in terms of overall impact

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Apparently, the Canes and Ducks were talking Faulk so I hope Botts in the phone to Anaheim as we speak. Ducks have a ton of fantastic young prospects.

If Anaheim didn't offer more than what STL did, what makes you think they will for Risto?

 

[Sabreality]

If Anaheim didn't offer more than what STL did, what makes you think they will for Risto?

Faulk had the ability to block a trade with his M-NTC, so STL was one of the 15 on his list he'd go to, Ducks likely not.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Faulk had the ability to block a trade with his M-NTC, so STL was one of the 15 on his list he'd go to, Ducks likely not.

Good point. All things considered, we may end up with a decent haul for Risto.

 

[Team Cozens]

Good point. All things considered, we may end up with a decent haul for Risto.

Not sure what people think of Jonathan Drouin, but he is the same and age, has a similar contract as Risto.
Habs rumored to be moving a forward.

Edit: Found a July 15th article from Buffalo Hockey Central that listed Drouin as a possible trade acquisition for Risto.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Not sure what people think of Jonathan Drouin, but he is the same and age, has a similar contract as Risto.
Habs rumored to be moving a forward.

Edit: Found a July 15th article from Buffalo Hockey Central that listed Drouin as a possible trade acquisition for Risto.

Not interested

 

[Club]

One for one for Zegras. One can dream.

Not a fan. Hes a lottery ticket.

 

[thewookie1]

Not sure what people think of Jonathan Drouin, but he is the same and age, has a similar contract as Risto.
Habs rumored to be moving a forward.

Edit: Found a July 15th article from Buffalo Hockey Central that listed Drouin as a possible trade acquisition for Risto.

Drouin is practically garbage, no thanks.