Rising/Slipping for '06

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VOB

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Rush5Collapse5 said:
If the WJC is the litmus for determining how high Kessel should go, then the same should be said about Toews in falling. The Toews apologists "he's only 17" out, is laughable considering Kessel's hat trick when he was 17 in last years WJC's.


I am basing this on how Kessel has played through out the year thus far!

In my opinion, scouts are now viewing Kessel as a high reward/high risk type of player. I have defended Kessel since the start of the year and I have a bias for him, being that I want him to succeed for the betterment of American hockey.

I am starting, however, to believe that Kessel will either be an impact player at the NHL level or an absolute bust. I am not sure there will be an in between.

There are and will be "safer" players (such as Johnson, Staal and yes even Toews) that may upend him for this very reason.
 

AmericanDream

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Whoever ended up second in the A Pool was going to have a very tough time making the Gold Medal game. I did expect a better effort by USA vs Russia, but it wasn't there. The schedule for the second place teams puts them at a distinct disadvantage, but you've really got to look at Walt Kyle as to why his team was so fatigued. JJ seemed to play every second shift. The fourth line hardly played at all. He really went with a short bench and it backfired on him.

I don't agree with you that questions about his team play/playmaking abilities have been answered. A lot of his assists were on 2 on 1's where the defenseman took him and he dished it off to Bourque. Most players can make those type of passes in that situation. I really didn't see any playmaking ability through the neutral zone or even entering the offensive zone. He had 5 assists against the worst team in the tournament. His assist against the Czechs was from a rebound he created.

You seem to like to make digs at Toews throughout the message board. I didn't bring him up at all, but since you did ...

Toews was not expected to lead this tournament. He is not on the first line. He did not see first unit powerplay time (He did play on a disappointing 2nd unit). He does not kill penalties. Why? Canada has older more experienced players that Sutter likes to use. His linemates are Pouliot and Blunden. By all accounts, Pouliot has had an awful tournament. He has missed golden opportunities (some set up by Toews) and he has taken many stupid penalties. Bourque and Oshie were 2 of the best forwards and Kessel's linemates. I would expect with the ice time he saw (Walt Kyle seemed to roll only 2 & 1/2 lines), Kessel had every opportunity to shine. Toews did not move up on anyone's list this tournament, but he did nothing to move down.

With that said, EJ passed both of them to rise to the number one pick.

he did nothing to move down???? what did he do??? seriously?
yeah yeah yeah, keep making excuses for his zero productivity. we all know he is 17, and that the Canadian team was so old right??? well phil kessel became "over-hyped" because of what he did as a 17 year old, and I am sorry, JT couldnt be a hemroid on phils' butt then and now. JT drops out of the top five with this no performance.
 

GaryU

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So far, I guess no one knows who's going #1. I'd think it depends on who's up 1st. If it's Pitt, DEFINITELY Johnson (immediately their BEST D). Other teams may need O. Frankly, Kessel leading the WJC in scoring sounds like he wasn't too awful. Let's not forget, the entire team played poorly especially in the big games.
 

Daily Special

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VOB said:
I am basing this on how Kessel has played through out the year thus far!

In my opinion, scouts are now viewing Kessel as a high reward/high risk type of player. I have defended Kessel since the start of the year and I have a bias for him, being that I want him to succeed for the betterment of American hockey.

I am starting, however, to believe that Kessel will either be an impact player at the NHL level or an absolute bust. I am not sure there will be an in between.

There are and will be "safer" players (such as Johnson, Staal and yes even Toews) that may upend him for this very reason.

"being that I want him to succeed for the betterment of American hockey."

What a contradictory position from the one you were taking as such a die hard activist for Canada over America in When Does the USA Surpass Canada as the #1 Hockey Country?
Now you suddenly care about the "betterment of American hockey"?

:dunno:

And what's wrong with Phill Kessel this year so far? He's second on his team in scoring as a freshman with 22 pts in 18 games in a notoriously point stingy collegiate league.

:dunno:

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Transported Upstater

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Kessel showed several things to me in this tournament:

1) Pure skill set, no one in this draft class compares.

2) Game-wise, he has a ways to go yet. He's by no means ready for the NHL.

3) Needs work on defense and ability to fit into a team concept (though to be fair, you could say that about much of the American team)


In Kessel's defense, he's been "the guy" on every team he's played for until this year, so he's still used to playing an individual game.

He showed he has plenty of weaknesses, and he's still raw, but I believe he is still the best prospect (if handled correctly) in the 2006 NHL draft.

But his style is not for everyone, and I doubt he'll ever be a really well-rounded player. But the things he excels at are largely the type of things you just can't teach, and that makes Kessel have an enourmous ceiling as a prospect (and quite a floor, as well; I think Kessell will either become an All-Star player for virtually his whole career, or will be a fringe player in the league.)
 

VOB

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Rush5Collapse5 said:
"being that I want him to succeed for the betterment of American hockey."

What a contradictory position from the one you were taking as such a die hard activist for Canada over America in When Does the USA Surpass Canada as the #1 Hockey Country?
Now you suddenly care about the "betterment of American hockey"?

:dunno:

And what's wrong with Phill Kessel this year so far? He's second on his team in scoring as a freshman with 22 pts in 18 games in a notoriously point stingy collegiate league.

:dunno:

-


Get a grip Rush, please don't have a meltdown/ collapse on us! Just because I don't believe the U.S. will ever surpass Canada doesn't mean I don't care about the U.S. and its fortunes in hockey.

Kessel's play in traffic, or I should say lack of play, is a huge concern for me at the moment. Given the space he can make things happen but once every inch of the ice is contested (as it is in the NHL), Kessel simply fades away. There is no question that his stock has dropped.
 

Daily Special

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VOB said:
Kessel's play in traffic, or I should say lack of play, is a huge concern for me at the moment. Given the space he can make things happen but once every inch of the ice is contested (as it is in the NHL), Kessel simply fades away. There is no question that his stock has dropped.

Calm down, don't go to pieces because Kessel was dazzling again.

As everyone saw for the second year in a row he was the big scoring sensation in games against the world's best under 20 players.
 

quebec

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I keep reading how all the top draft picks are going to come out of the WJC this year.Does anyone know how many top end players did not play for there countries.Either they where not picked or they where injured or they played in leagues there countrys did not care for.Everyone can say that they think E J moved ahead of Kessel for the #1 spot in the draft but you are not looking at the whole picture. The whole picture is the U.S.A.team lost. The U.S.A. won 1 time and that was because of a bad bounce.I am an American living in Canada and I was just wondering are there any other states that have good hockey players other than the Mid West.If I remember correctly when we won gold in 81 the roster had addresses from the east to the west.The roster went further than just MI.,MN.If I rember they do play hockey in the Northeast.To let you know I am originaly fromMI.The U.S.A. team had a lot of talent this year but it seemed to be indivisual talent.If all of these U S players #1 or #2 ore even mostly first round draft picks how come we didnt even win a MEDAL.
 

VOB

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Rush5Collapse5 said:
Calm down, don't go to pieces because Kessel was dazzling again.

As everyone saw for the second year in a row he was the big scoring sensation in games against the world's best under 20 players.


Kessel was anything but dazzling, especially when the games really counted.

Kessel has proved that he is a force on the PP (where he garnerd 3/4 of his points) but he also showed that he could be neutralized rather easily 5 on 5 and once the game began to be played along the wall and in the corners - he was completly out of his element.

Like I said, he still has an excellent chance of going 1st over-all but if the second half of the season is similiar to his first half (where teams like Wisconsin totally shut him down) he will certainly be no lock for first over-all.

As I mentioned in a previous thread some time ago, Kessel's point production is pretty impressive for a freshman in the NCAA but no more impressive than what both Vanek and Parise did during their freshman seasons (in fact, Kessel's point production and over-all play is probably a tad less impressive) and either one of those players went first over-all.
 

Rabid Ranger

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TransportedUpstater said:
Kessel showed several things to me in this tournament:

1) Pure skill set, no one in this draft class compares.

2) Game-wise, he has a ways to go yet. He's by no means ready for the NHL.

3) Needs work on defense and ability to fit into a team concept (though to be fair, you could say that about much of the American team)


In Kessel's defense, he's been "the guy" on every team he's played for until this year, so he's still used to playing an individual game.

He showed he has plenty of weaknesses, and he's still raw, but I believe he is still the best prospect (if handled correctly) in the 2006 NHL draft.

But his style is not for everyone, and I doubt he'll ever be a really well-rounded player. But the things he excels at are largely the type of things you just can't teach, and that makes Kessel have an enourmous ceiling as a prospect (and quite a floor, as well; I think Kessell will either become an All-Star player for virtually his whole career, or will be a fringe player in the league.)


Couldn't have said it better myself. :clap:
 

Dr.Sens(e)

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Let's keep in mind that draft eligible players rarely make an impact when playing at the WJC. Joe Thornton and Vincent Lecavalier are just two players who were support players at best in their draft year. As such, I don't think those draft eligible players that did contribute should be dismissed.

To me, Kessel actually doesn't look like a high risk pick. I think his overall offensive instincts aren't the strongest, but he has pro speed, a great release and a good motor. Worst case, I think you're looking at a Courtnall type scorer. I actually think his upside might be a little lower (certainly the Crosby comparison is unfair to him), but from where I sit, he is a safe bet to be a 25-30 goal scorer in the NHL some day.

But I also agree EJ has got to be considered #1 now. The guy really was fantastic, and the fact that a few of the goals were partly his fault has more to do with him being one the best d-men in the tourney getting matched up against a player that would be in the Calder race if he were in the NHL, and other pro players. For the most part, he faired very well one-on-one though, and I liked the way he covered up for JJ when he rushed deep. I think he has certainly shown more than either Suter or Phaneuf at the same age, and don't quite understand how someone can say he doesn't have the upside of those two. He might be higher risk at this stage, but he skates better than Phaneuf and is a bigger package than Suter.

I really liked Toews game, the way he used his linemates and how he battled, but the Staal comparison is a bad one. Staal was an elite skater from the get-go, and Toews will never be a top skater. He'll likely be a really good NHL forward one day, but I'd still have to say he is probably #3 on my list.

Finally, I think Backstram has placed himself in the top 10, and might keep moving up. Top 5 is definitely achievable - I think people forget how much movement can happen in the latter half of a draft year. Look where Kopitar ended up, and where he was at mis-season.
 

MXD

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Blue Jackets : Johnson
Blues : Kessel
Caps : Toews
Penguins : Frolik
Chicago : Mueller.
 

hawksfan50

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Before we get to final rankings for the draft,I think it is safe to say Erik Johnson will
go #1 --he's good now and has enormous upside for one not even 18...

I'm not sure Kessel is automatic at #2 any more...does he even have more upside or is this it?

The 2 17 year olds in the mx = Toews+ Mueller competing against the older group,looked a lot more unfinished ...so projecting must be done for further downthe line--BUT I do not think either showed the speed I was looking for,and that sends some red flags to my opinion...they might overcome this with improvement in the strentgh and decision-making game as they mature --but as I said,I thought they would be faster skaters than I saw,so that is a concern...

Jordan Staal was not there of course--however,he is already stronger than Toews and Mueller and will grow to the biggest of the three when playing pro--plus you just cannot overlook the Staal family factor --if he is anywhere near the excellence of Eric and Mark --the genes reek of saying: project that enormous upside of excellence...but I don't think Jordan has his eldest brother's shot...
Anyway we shall get to compare him and Mueller at the Top Prospects Game ...
And I want to see how Brassard does in that game as well...

Backstrom improved his stock with his speed and fine 2-way play at the WJHC...I think you can project even more on the upside...
 

TK79

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Joensuu did redeem himself a bit in the bronze game against the US. He scored twice and finally started to show some nifty puck-handling on the powerplay. Easily his best game of the tournament.. I personally think Jesse should have gone to Canada to play Major Junior hockey this season. The Finnish junior-A league isn't good enough for him and in the SM-liiga he plays a checking-role. In Canada he could have had the chance to be a top-line player in a very competitive league and the chance to focus more on his offensive game. But big guys tend to develop a bit later and his combination of size (6'4) and skill-set will still be very attractive come draft time. On the other hand not being able to play in the U18's because of his age might hurt his stock a bit. I predict he'll still be drafted 8-15 come draft day.
 

monster_bertuzzi

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Ben Maxwell should be rising into a possible top 15/10 spot. He's at a point per game with Kootenay after 40 games. He's got size, he can really skate - and he's got probably the softest hands in the WHL.
 

MN_Gopher

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hawksfan50 said:
I'm not sure Kessel is automatic at #2 any more...does he even have more upside or is this it?


I wish people could watch Minnesota games. From the first series of the year to now he has gotten lots better. In his own and is passing more. He looks like he gained a season of experiance in his first 20 college games. The WJC was not his finest outing and he looked different out there the 2 games i saw him.

His max upside is Pavel Bure but can match those goals with assists. A 50/50 season would not surprise me. Is 52% on faceoffs this year. Plays regular PK shifts too.

Personally i think as wing he would score more and his speed and knack for the puck would look better as a forechecker than a defensive center. His goals would go up and his assist would take a slight hit. But he is not a bad center either. Just needs to learn more. And so far he is.
 
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