Rielly's year?

Community

44 is Rielly good
Oct 30, 2010
6,774
1,683
The Darkest Timeline
To be fair to the OP, I'm not sure one could be considered a true, legit #1 and not receive any Norris votes.

Still has plenty to prove, at least in the eyes of the members of the PHWA.

That's the absolute worst criteria to use to judge who a true, legit #1 Dman is. When you vote for the Norris, you're voting for who you think is a top 5 Dman that year. Why does somebody need to be in consideration for being a top 5 dman in order to be considered a legitimate #1? Using that criteria you are basically saying that in order to be a top ~25 dman you need to be in consideration for a top 5 dman.

In addition, Chara, Giordano, Manson, Slavin, and Hamilton all got at least 1 top 5 votes. All that tells me is that the guys that made that choice shouldn't be allowed to vote next year, not that the aforementioned players deserved the votes they got. Does anybody honestly think Slavin or Manson were the 5th best Dman last year? There are two guys on the PHWA that do, which is ridiculous.

The Leafs not have a super biased voter vote Rielly in as a candidate for the Norris shouldn't be used against Rielly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: seventieslord

Community

44 is Rielly good
Oct 30, 2010
6,774
1,683
The Darkest Timeline
OP has changed his original post, but I would like to say that I firmly believe that a "True #1 Dman" is not the same as "Unarguably a top 10 dman in the league".

So maybe change the question to, will Rielly be one of the top 10 Dmen in the entire league.
 
  • Like
Reactions: seventieslord

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
I personally have him 27th in the league so technically he's a #1 - a true, legit one. Top-10, well that's much more lofty territory. Which three of Karlsson, Doughty, Hedman, Josi, Subban, Suter, Pietrangelo, Keith, Jones, Carlson, Burns and Byfuglien is he going to pass this year?
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
To be fair, Provorov, Werenski and Lindholm didn't receive any votes either and people consider them 1D's as well

You're right of course. You can quite easily be a #1 defenseman while there is still unanimous agreement that you're not one of the top five (which is what it would take to get a norris vote).

Are we supposed to care that Slavin, Giordano and Hamilton each got a Norris vote? That one person in 164 thought they were a top-5 defenseman? No, it's meaningless.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
That's the absolute worst criteria to use to judge who a true, legit #1 Dman is. When you vote for the Norris, you're voting for who you think is a top 5 Dman that year. Why does somebody need to be in consideration for being a top 5 dman in order to be considered a legitimate #1? Using that criteria you are basically saying that in order to be a top ~25 dman you need to be in consideration for a top 5 dman.

In addition, Chara, Giordano, Manson, Slavin, and Hamilton all got at least 1 top 5 votes. All that tells me is that the guys that made that choice shouldn't be allowed to vote next year, not that the aforementioned players deserved the votes they got. Does anybody honestly think Slavin or Manson were the 5th best Dman last year? There are two guys on the PHWA that do, which is ridiculous.

The Leafs not have a super biased voter vote Rielly in as a candidate for the Norris shouldn't be used against Rielly.

...man you're smart.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Community

moon111

Registered User
Oct 18, 2014
2,890
1,283
If you take all the top D-men in the league, there's few who had more points then Rielly did last year at the same age.

Player NameDate of Birth
Connor Carrick1994-04-13
Morgan Rielly1994-03-09
Calle Rosen1994-02-02
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
2,996
Washington, DC
That's the absolute worst criteria to use to judge who a true, legit #1 Dman is. When you vote for the Norris, you're voting for who you think is a top 5 Dman that year. Why does somebody need to be in consideration for being a top 5 dman in order to be considered a legitimate #1? Using that criteria you are basically saying that in order to be a top ~25 dman you need to be in consideration for a top 5 dman.

In addition, Chara, Giordano, Manson, Slavin, and Hamilton all got at least 1 top 5 votes. All that tells me is that the guys that made that choice shouldn't be allowed to vote next year, not that the aforementioned players deserved the votes they got. Does anybody honestly think Slavin or Manson were the 5th best Dman last year? There are two guys on the PHWA that do, which is ridiculous.

The Leafs not have a super biased voter vote Rielly in as a candidate for the Norris shouldn't be used against Rielly.

Alright...Do you think that your perception may be slightly biased?
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,028
11,217
He's not already a legitimate #1 D? That's news to me lol

He was the #1 defenceman with 52 points on the 7th best team in the league last season, but ok? My only gripe with Rielly is his shot, that's it, he does everything else exceptionally well that you'd want from an offensive #1 D.
I worry more about zone denials. His problem is that he forgets how fast he is and is a bit conservative in the pinch. He could easily catch more guys if he misses.
 

Community

44 is Rielly good
Oct 30, 2010
6,774
1,683
The Darkest Timeline
Alright...Do you think that your perception may be slightly biased?

About how I value Rielly? Sure.

About Norris voting being a terrible way to judge who is a top ~25-31 dmen? Absolutely not...

Give me one logical reason as to why voting for who a top 5 dman is in a specific year would be a good way to determine who the top 25-31 dmen are.


Edit: If for some reason you still think this is a logical way to judge dmen, I should also point out that the list only includes 18 dmen this year and typically under 20 dmen each year so that still isnt a viable way to show who dman #21-31ish are.
 
Last edited:

TeamBester

Debunked
Feb 15, 2010
6,573
67
Kingston, Ontario
I already predicted 70+ points for Mo this year in the hot take thread. So I agree this is his breakout year and there will be no arguement how truly good Mo is.
 

hector morrison

Registered User
Apr 1, 2018
4,792
1,998
He is a number 1 on this team . Wouldn't be on every team . Likely not top pairing on some teams. I rate Morgan as a very good 'all rounder',mostly offensive Dman (despite the obvious lack of a 'big shot') and I expect at this point in his career that he will set a personal best,considering the up- front talent on this team.
 

meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
4,714
4,655
Bangkok
I personally have him 27th in the league so technically he's a #1 - a true, legit one. Top-10, well that's much more lofty territory. Which three of Karlsson, Doughty, Hedman, Josi, Subban, Suter, Pietrangelo, Keith, Jones, Carlson, Burns and Byfuglien is he going to pass this year?

I expect him to pass Carlson, Burns and Buff, with an outside chance of passing Karlsson as I'm unsure how sound Karlsson's ankle/foot(?) is going to be. I expect his defensive game to be better as Babcock leans on him more this year than ever before and that he'll pass the 60 point mark as the Leaf's PP should be awesome.
 

Maplebeasts

I See Demons!!!!!
Oct 26, 2014
20,792
12,461
Barrie, Ontario
I expect him to pass Carlson, Burns and Buff, with an outside chance of passing Karlsson as I'm unsure how sound Karlsson's ankle/foot(?) is going to be. I expect his defensive game to be better as Babcock leans on him more this year than ever before and that he'll pass the 60 point mark as the Leaf's PP should be awesome.
I think he's already better than Keith currently as well. Keith was a shadow of his former self this past season.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
I think he's already better than Keith currently as well. Keith was a shadow of his former self this past season.

Keith is a two-time norris winner and three times the #1 on a stanley cup winner. Being a shadow of that doesn't automatically make a player of Rielly's caliber better.

I don't care if one is 24 and on the way up, and one is 34 and on the way down. Given their histories it would still be a smart bet that Keith will have a better season than Rielly.
 

Goleafsgo95

Registered User
Jan 12, 2018
189
89
I do believe Rielly has the potential to become a Top-10 D-man. Norris calibre is a bit lofty, but you never know. There really isn`t a huge list of young Dmen with higher ceilings than Rielly.
 

diceman934

Help is on the way.
Jul 31, 2010
17,335
4,148
NHL player factory
Morgan has played with the worse partners then any teams top pair D man in the league and it has not even been close.

He is underrated league wide. To not get a Norris vote while lessor do is a joke.
His best partner Haisney was carried all year and Rielly had to protect the ice behind Haisney as he was far to slow to do so him self.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Notsince67 and kb

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
By the way, it's not unreasonable to think that Keith will take an even bigger tumble, to the point that a guy of Rielly's stature is better. But if that happens, then other up-and-comers like Provorov, Klingberg, OEL, Trouba and Ristolainen become better than Keith, too. Rielly has to outdo all their progress as well. Getting to top-10 status is very difficult and highly unlikely for Rielly this season.

I said I had him 27th in the league as of now. I'm pretty sure the THN podcast said he barely made their top-25 (the issue hasn't come out for me to verify), so he's in the same range for them. I think we're both being a little generous considering everyone else on that top-25 is going to be a 24+ minute player. Rielly can't even top 22 minutes a game on this no-name defense. I'm not saying he sucks, but just playing devil's advocate - usually the best indicator of a defenseman's value is how much the coaching staff puts him out on the ice. If he's that great, why is Babcock not watching this greatness in action and saying "oh man, I need that out there for 26 minutes a game"?
 

kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,282
21,714
By the way, it's not unreasonable to think that Keith will take an even bigger tumble, to the point that a guy of Rielly's stature is better. But if that happens, then other up-and-comers like Provorov, Klingberg, OEL, Trouba and Ristolainen become better than Keith, too. Rielly has to outdo all their progress as well. Getting to top-10 status is very difficult and highly unlikely for Rielly this season.

I said I had him 27th in the league as of now. I'm pretty sure the THN podcast said he barely made their top-25 (the issue hasn't come out for me to verify), so he's in the same range for them. I think we're both being a little generous considering everyone else on that top-25 is going to be a 24+ minute player. Rielly can't even top 22 minutes a game on this no-name defense. I'm not saying he sucks, but just playing devil's advocate - usually the best indicator of a defenseman's value is how much the coaching staff puts him out on the ice. If he's that great, why is Babcock not watching this greatness in action and saying "oh man, I need that out there for 26 minutes a game"?

Babcock played Matthews, voted the 4th best C in the league, 18 minutes on average. Your lone criteria is fatally flawed. I guess that means we have to hope Matthews can one day become as good as superstars Mikael Backlund, Jordan Staal, and Nick Schmaltz? TOI should NEVER be used as a criteria. Does that mean Hainsey is better than Rielly?

He played (I believe) the 8th toughest minutes amongst D, and put up over 50 points. It's what you do when you are on the ice that matters, not how much time you spend on it.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,125
7,208
Regina, SK
Babcock played Matthews, voted the 4th best C in the league, 18 minutes on average. Your lone criteria is fatally flawed. I guess that means we have to hope Matthews can one day become as good as superstars Mikael Backlund, Jordan Staal, and Nick Schmaltz? TOI should NEVER be used as a criteria. Does that mean Hainsey is better than Rielly?

He played (I believe) the 8th toughest minutes amongst D, and put up over 50 points. It's what you do when you are on the ice that matters, not how much time you spend on it.

Don't put words in my mouth. Nothing is my "lone criteria", and as good as TOI is for telling the story of a defenseman's value, it's not nearly as important for forwards. Production is much more important. Besides, most of the guys with more TOI/GP than Matthews only got there by their PK minutes; Matthews was 15th in ESTOI/GP.

Production is not nearly as important for judging a defenseman's value. All you have to do is look at any season and rank the top scoring defensemen and then rank them by TOI and it's pretty clear right away which list contains all the elite defensemen and which one contains a mix of great players and good PP specialists. Production for defensemen is highly situational; the vast majority of them score at a pretty consistent ES rate and the their raw totals are based on their PP time and what caliber of forwards are on their PP.

And no, Hainsey is obviously not better than Rielly. I think we all know that. I think it's mighty strange though, that Rielly isn't trusted with 4-5 more minutes per game than a guy like Hainsey. A true franchise #1 D with the potential to be top-10 in the league certainly would be. A coach's job is to win hockey games and they're paid millions to do it. If Babcock thinks the best formula to win is to have Rielly out there for just 21-22 minutes then I trust that. It does tell us something about how he values them. It's not like Babcock won't play a player for 24+ minutes. Lidstrom, Kronwall, Schneider and Rafalski were all given that much in one or more seasons.

You look at any other elite, consensus top-15 defenseman and their team is putting them out there for 24+ per game. If Rielly is to be ranked that highly, we have to explain what it is about him, the Leafs, or Babcock that makes him an exception. It doesn't seem to be Babcock, and it's not like there's a ton of quality defenders here taking minutes away from him. Don't act like it isn't important. There are no 18-19 minute defensemen who are elite at anything. The good ones rise to the top and get put out on the ice the most.

He's getting good quality of competition, and his zone starts show a good degree of trust. He's That is a good start. Now he needs to do it so well that the coaches can't help but put him out there more and more often. Having a positive goal differential for the first time in his career would help, too. It's not like the Leafs of the past two seasons haven't been a good place to put up a strong +/- for most players.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad