Rielly

[BertCorbeau]

The hard part is the replacement player .. That's the big risk, since the UFA market is pretty thin and banking on the trade market (especially given what trade value is out there) is really tough to do. Especially since the Leafs' are trying to win now.

And at this point, the Jones extension really hurt the Leafs' ability to get Rielly on a bargain. Had that deal not occurred, it would have been easier to negotiate an extension after July 28th (when Rielly can sign). They could have started discussions earlier but the Jones deal would have changed that conversation.

Now they're at a point where you have to determine how this season will affect Rielly's UFA value. Does his value stay the same, increase, or decrease in the next several months? If the Leafs look to sign now, it appears they could be signing him while the market is high.

 

[ToneDog]

I think 7M aav is a bit high. I think max the leafs can realistically afford with a flat cap for Reilly is 6.5M. Pretty much give him the money from Kessel's 1.2M retention coming off the book next year. There are starting to be some serious questions about his ability to qb a top PP. If he isn't on a top PP he definitely isn't worth 7M and possibly not even my proposed 6.5.

I would actually argue that Muzzin has been the best leafs D the last 2 years but it's debatable. I would like to resign Reilly too but if he's looking at Jones as a comparable it's not going to work. The Leafs are in a real tough cap situation moving forward and if players aren't willing to sign for what works for the leafs you have to recoup some assets.

It seems like people who are saying we can't afford to trade Reilly are forgetting that the leafs can take his 5M and sign a pretty good D for about 5-6M. It's not like the leafs would be trading him and then do nothing to replace him. If the leafs had started negotiations a few weeks ago they could have had a pretty good idea of if he's gunna walk next year and therefore decide to trade him and sign a UFA. Instead, I have heard they will begin negotiations in August... After the top D UFA have signed. Huge time and asset management mistake.

Rielly doesn't have to use Jones as a comparable. Even if he says he is 75% the dman, he is worth 7.125x8. Now if you agree with some posters that Jones is bad (lol) then Rielly should be able to get closer to 80-90% of the Jones deal. Prepare to throw another player overboard in order to keep the greedy 3 and JT.

 

[ToneDog]

The hard part is the replacement player .. That's the big risk, since the UFA market is pretty thin and banking on the trade market (especially given what trade value is out there) is really tough to do. Especially since the Leafs' are trying to win now.

And at this point, the Jones extension really hurt the Leafs' ability to get Rielly on a bargain. Had that deal not occurred, it would have been easier to negotiate an extension after July 28th (when Rielly can sign). They could have started discussions earlier but the Jones deal would have changed that conversation.

Now they're at a point where you have to determine how this season will affect Rielly's UFA value. Does his value stay the same, increase, or decrease in the next several months? If the Leafs look to sign now, it appears they could be signing him while the market is high.

So Lou blew it by waiting to sign Willie and now Dubas has blown it by waiting to sign Rielly. Sigh.

 

[Dreakmur]

So Lou blew it by waiting to sign Willie and now Dubas has blown it by waiting to sign Rielly. Sigh.

Not fair to apply hindsight. Waiting is fine, signing a bad contract isn’t.

 

[Zonk]

And at this point, the Jones extension really hurt the Leafs' ability to get Rielly on a bargain. Had that deal not occurred, it would have been easier to negotiate an extension after July 28th (when Rielly can sign). They could have started discussions earlier but the Jones deal would have changed that conversation.

Small point that does not change the gist of your post. Jones has signed his extension that does not take affect until 2022-23. Were players entering the final year of their contract allowed to extend after July 1, as in other years?

 

[KitchenSink]

Rielly doesn't have to use Jones as a comparable. Even if he says he is 75% the dman, he is worth 7.125x8. Now if you agree with some posters that Jones is bad (lol) then Rielly should be able to get closer to 80-90% of the Jones deal. Prepare to throw another player overboard in order to keep the greedy 3 and JT.

That's why I'm saying the leafs should be seriously looking at trading him and that they have made a huge mistake in the timing of their negotiations after Free Agency has already begun. I have no idea what they are thinking with that. I agree with your estimates of what Reilly might be asking for which is more than the absolute max the leafs can afford of 6.5 I have proposed. I would like to keep him around but not over 6.5M.

 

[binop7]

We have no replacement for Rielly. Hamilton is gonna sign for 8.5M or 9M probably with NJD. So then we need a 1D who makes less than 7M for this to work cap wise. I think we have to keep Rielly. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't sometimes.

 

[DuklaNation]

Rielly is not a #1 PP QB. None of the top 4 forwards are great at running the top of a PP either. Dubas should have traded this guy a while ago as he had decent value as a #3 dman (perception > reality). But they're still in denial.

 

[Racer88]

We have no replacement for Rielly. Hamilton is gonna sign for 8.5M or 9M probably with NJD. So then we need a 1D who makes less than 7M for this to work cap wise. I think we have to keep Rielly. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't sometimes.

You are correct we don’t have a replacement for Rielly and no real cap space to upgrade him because just replacing him with the “same” type player is not good enough. We have had no success with him and need better

 

[binop7]

You are correct we don’t have a replacement for Rielly and no real cap space to upgrade him because just replacing him with the “same” type player is not good enough. We have had no success with him and need better

I don't disagree but I don't see a mythical 6M #1D on the horizon.

 

[The CyNick]

I would interested in seeing what you could net out with by trading Reilly and Marner.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Should get Makar type contact.

There’s no basis to that at all.

 

[sxvnert]

Spinless Dubas will end up keeping him until next summer and lose him for nothing. He'll tweak around the edges from the UFA market and the media shills will polish that turd until it shines like glass all season long.

Dubas cares more about his rep than moving one of the "we can and we will" top four and the media will back him 100%.

 

[sxvnert]

Should get Makar type contact.

Its more likely he'll get slightly more than whatever Barrie gets this summer. They're basically the same type of player. Rielly gets the slight edge on toughness/defensive awareness and Barrie gets a slight edge on offence.

 

[Budz]

Who's better?

Brodie for sure. Muzz too.

 

[ToneDog]

Not fair to apply hindsight. Waiting is fine, signing a bad contract isn’t.

It is like buying a house and waiting to long and all of a sudden prices rise. Still gotta pay the higher market price.

 

[Dreakmur]

It is like buying a house and waiting a day all of a sudden prices rise. Still gotta pay the higher market price.

You never have to pay.

 

[Racer88]

I don't disagree but I don't see a mythical 6M #1D on the horizon.

I agree but that is the GM’s job to figure out how to get that upgraded player. However as we all know there is very little cap left to do that with the faulty dispersement of our cap

 

[Guy Boucher]

I was really disappointed to hear Dubas say that he’s yet to talk to the Reilly camp about an extension, and will begin talks after free agency.

Reasons why this is really stupid:

1- what if Reilly wants way too much money? The time to move him would have been at the draft, when teams were paying insane prices for defensemen (see risto). After free agency, rosters will be relatively set and you won’t get as much back for Reilly. Also replacing Reilly becomes much more difficult after free agency.

If he wants too much money and we don’t move him, he’ll be part of a long list of talent we’ve bled without return from bozak, gardiner, jvr, Hyman, etc. With more foresight, this team could have moved those players for assets in order to maximize the prime of matthews with cheap, effective ELC’s.

2. The strategy of waiting has hurt the leafs so much. All of matthews, nylander, marner could have been signed to better contracts if the leafs had negotiated sooner. But they decided to wait which only drove up the price. Heck even Hyman could have been signed to 4x4 or even 3.5x6 if they tried signing him last summer. Waiting isn’t working, and the likelihood of more comparables will only drive up Reilly’s price. Really disappointed they haven’t learned from these past errors.

 

[Menzinger]

Mentioned this in the free agency thread but I'd suspect he gets re-signed sometime in August unless management convinces Hamilton to sign here at a below expected rate.

 

[steam whistle]

I am sort of feeling Kyle will sign Reilly a deal like Phaneuf

 

[The Apologist]

You are correct we don’t have a replacement for Rielly and no real cap space to upgrade him because just replacing him with the “same” type player is not good enough. We have had no success with him and need better

Yes, Rielly is the reason we are struggling. Our defense is really Montreal won. Clearly.

 

[daveleaf]

Reilly is part of the solution, not the problem. He needs to be signed. He may not be a true number one but he is very good. I am surprised by his lack of aggression in shooting the puck on the power play. We will never have a Jones on this team but I would be a huge fan of Reilly and Hamilton and trade Marriner.

 

[ShaneFalco]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021...with-an-unsigned-morgan-rielly-on-the-roster/

This is not unfamiliar territory for the Leafs, save for the fact that they might actually salvage some value in return for Hyman prior to losing him.
If they don’t, Hyman will join a growing number of players who have walked out of the organization as UFAs for nothing in return in the five-year run where the Leafs have been eliminated in the first round every single season (note: technically, they lost out in the play-in round against Columbus — not the first round).
This growing list of players includes:

• Zach Hyman
• James van Riemsdyk
• Tyler Bozak
• Jake Gardiner
• Leo Komarov
• Tyson Barrie
• Cody Ceci
• Tomas Plekanec
• Brian Boyle
• Ron Hainsey
• Roman Polak
• Tyler Ennis
• Kyle Clifford
• Zach Bogosian (likely)
• David Rittich (likely)
• Riley Nash (likely)
• Ben Hutton (likely)
• Nick Foligno (likely)

Now, some of these are trade deadline acquisitions, so while it might not be the same as a long-tenured player walking for free, they are players the Leafs paid assets for, the team was promptly eliminated, and the players then walked for free.

Over the last five seasons, the Leafs spent the following draft picks on the acquisitions of Foligno, Boyle, Plekanec, Rittich, Hutton, Clifford, and Nash:

• 1 x 1st
• 2 x 2nd
• 2 x 3rd
• 1 x 4th
• 1 x 5th
• 1 x 6th

That’s an entire draft class, plus extra picks. The average number of games those players played for the Leafs? 13.

It should be noted that not every season is equal. The Leafs should have gone for it this past season. They finished first in a weak division with a clear path to a final-four appearance. The team didn’t get the job done. It was justifiable to pay up at the deadline, and it arguably would have been a fireable offense if Kyle Dubas was not active. Unfortunately, the players didn’t reward the management group, and now the Leafs are facing yet another offseason where several good players will walk for nothing in return.
It should also be noted that early on, fans were sold on the idea of the Leafs retaining their own players at the deadline in order to help the team make the playoffs, if for no other reason than gaining the young players experience. Let the record show that this was a fruitless exercise — the experience accomplished very little, if anything.

 

[PromisedLand]

I was really disappointed to hear Dubas say that he’s yet to talk to the Reilly camp about an extension, and will begin talks after free agency.

Reasons why this is really stupid:

1- what if Reilly wants way too much money? The time to move him would have been at the draft, when teams were paying insane prices for defensemen (see risto). After free agency, rosters will be relatively set and you won’t get as much back for Reilly. Also replacing Reilly becomes much more difficult after free agency.

If he wants too much money and we don’t move him, he’ll be part of a long list of talent we’ve bled without return from bozak, gardiner, jvr, Hyman, etc. With more foresight, this team could have moved those players for assets in order to maximize the prime of matthews with cheap, effective ELC’s.

2. The strategy of waiting has hurt the leafs so much. All of matthews, nylander, marner could have been signed to better contracts if the leafs had negotiated sooner. But they decided to wait which only drove up the price. Heck even Hyman could have been signed to 4x4 or even 3.5x6 if they tried signing him last summer. Waiting isn’t working, and the likelihood of more comparables will only drive up Reilly’s price. Really disappointed they haven’t learned from these past errors.

Solid post!

MLSE continues to allow the incompetent management group lead the Leafs; not sure how else to put it