RFA standoff summer 2019

[LadyStanley]

NHL players, young and old, watching the RFA standoff: 'I...

Paywall. Marner's been signed since this article was written, but still some good points.

Quotes some execs thinking the best time for an offer sheet (to be successful) may be on season opening day.

Also how emphasis has shifted to the players coming off their ELS deals rather than doing a bridge deal of a year or few.


Paradigm shift is here to stay?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

They have a right to sit out but thats about it. Basically no rights. The GM's can just wait them out, they have all the power.

Damn, they might have to play for say $5 million for a couple years, then get nearly market value on the next contract, then get nearly market value on when they have the ability to freely negotiate with any team, instead of $8 million or more, instead of getting $9 million now for several years and then a lower salary in UFA when their skills are perceived by everyone to be declining.

Life is so unfair.

 

[StreetHawk]

Damn, they might have to play for say $5 million for a couple years, then get nearly market value on the next contract, then get nearly market value on when they have the ability to freely negotiate with any team, instead of $8 million or more, instead of getting $9 million now for several years and then a lower salary in UFA when their skills are perceived by everyone to be declining.

Life is so unfair.

Players decline with age. The great 2003 draft class turns at least 34 in 2019. Just saw Perry and Phaneuf get bought out of the final 2 years of their deals and neither was playing up to their contracts the past 1-2 years really. You can probably count on 1 hand the number of skaters from that class who are still going very strong, like Bergeron, Pavelski, Burns, Weber, maybe one of Getzlaf/Staal.

So if you hit the end of your elc at age 22/23 you have either 4-5 years left of rfa before you hit ufa at age 26/27. Once you hit ufa you will be highly paid up to around age 31 maybe 32. Gives you 4-6 years once you are on the open to get max dollars. Then for any year over 32 you’ll get paid less to coincide with expected drop in production which lowers the cap charge.

Honestly, I’d rather do the Warenski deal for 3 years until he is 25 then sign him for max term at big money taking him to age 33 over provorov for 6 years to 28 and having to max term him to 36. Knowing that I’ll be paying warenski for all prime years vs getting about 2 declining years from provorov. That should cost me a higher cap charge.

 

[LadyStanley]

Players decline with age.

I take exception to the blanket statement, but will accept a qualification of MOST.

Joe Thornton is 40. And played one of his best seasons coming back from back-to-back years of knee injuries. But he's one of the few that is playing well at his age and is headed to the HHOF after he retires.

Teemu Selanne also played past 40 (and got back to higher play after knee surgery). HHOF too.

Plus there's Gordie Howe. Played until 50+

 

[StreetHawk]

I take exception to the blanket statement, but will accept a qualification of MOST.

Joe Thornton is 40. And played one of his best seasons coming back from back-to-back years of knee injuries. But he's one of the few that is playing well at his age and is headed to the HHOF after he retires.

Teemu Selanne also played past 40 (and got back to higher play after knee surgery). HHOF too.

Plus there's Gordie Howe. Played until 50+

As they age, they are not doing contracts with term. Going more year to year so that teams can pay according to production.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Players decline with age. The great 2003 draft class turns at least 34 in 2019. Just saw Perry and Phaneuf get bought out of the final 2 years of their deals and neither was playing up to their contracts the past 1-2 years really. You can probably count on 1 hand the number of skaters from that class who are still going very strong, like Bergeron, Pavelski, Burns, Weber, maybe one of Getzlaf/Staal.

So if you hit the end of your elc at age 22/23 you have either 4-5 years left of rfa before you hit ufa at age 26/27. Once you hit ufa you will be highly paid up to around age 31 maybe 32. Gives you 4-6 years once you are on the open to get max dollars. Then for any year over 32 you’ll get paid less to coincide with expected drop in production which lowers the cap charge.

Honestly, I’d rather do the Warenski deal for 3 years until he is 25 then sign him for max term at big money taking him to age 33 over provorov for 6 years to 28 and having to max term him to 36. Knowing that I’ll be paying warenski for all prime years vs getting about 2 declining years from provorov. That should cost me a higher cap charge.

So again, the complaint is ... the timing of when players get paid? If you can demonstrate where on average players are getting screwed in total relative to their total contribution, then you'd have a point to argue.

I've yet to see anyone even attempt that.

 

[Crede777]

If GM's aren't going to use the immense leverage they get over players coming out of an ELC, then they should honestly trade it during the next CBA discussion in exchange for something valuable they will use.

 

[42]

If GM's aren't going to use the immense leverage they get over players coming out of an ELC, then they should honestly trade it during the next CBA discussion in exchange for something valuable they will use.

This. The Matthews contract comes to mind as one of the most player-friendly RFA contract in memory. Big AAV with the least-favorable team term, taking the RFA player to UFA status. What possible motivation prompted this signing? An offer sheet would have likely resulted in a better contract for the Leafs. What else was Matthews going to do? He wasn't sitting out, and if he did, it was going to hurt him more than the Leafs.

 

[LadyStanley]

Can't recall where I read the tweet, but apparently Marner had TWO offer sheets (offered), but he didn't sign either (during the summer).

So there were at least two teams willing to shake up the status quo.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Can't recall where I read the tweet, but apparently Marner had TWO offer sheets (offered), but he didn't sign either (during the summer).

So there were at least two teams willing to shake up the status quo.

Obviously the solution is to change rules on offer sheets in some way to have either made it more likely that he would have signed them or forced him to sign one of them.