In the real world NHL, agents know within the first 48 hours or so whether there is going to be interest. Even if a formal offer doesn't come, GM's will let agents know one might be. So in the NHL, agents can figure out pretty quickly whether to just accept the QO or not. Not to mention they figure it out and get hints before FA even begins. In the HFNHL, this isn't the case.
You are acting like the QO is some lottery win. The bottom line is each GM signed a player to a contract, and if they are a RFA, you know they are not going to take a pay cut without testing free agency. You signed them to the offer, if you want to keep them, they aren't going to take a pay cut. If you think they are worth less, DON'T qualify them, and let them test FA waters. It's really quite simple.
The difference is in the NHL, teams actually cut loose their RFA's and don't tender offers. In the HFNHL, GM's qualify every player with a pulse - and even a few that don't have one if they haven't been keeping track of current events.
If his QO is twice his market value, you're an idiot for qualifying him first off. And yes, he's going to take it. The only reason he doesn't sign before FA because the agents don't have time to go through all the offers to figure out the no brainer acceptances. Easier to go through them all together after free agency and the dust has settled.
But the reality is GM's don't typically complain about the Mike Duco's of the world. It is typically some quality young RFA with significant potential they want to sign dirt cheap for 4 years at a pay cut below last year's salary, all because they didn't get an offer sheet. This isn't how the NHL works, so I don't think the HFNHL should. Agents get a lot of these offers, and they are indeed time wasters for everyone involved.
As you note yourself, it is a judgement call of whether to accept it. And frankly, it's a lot easier to just wait than have the agents go through HUNDREDS of RFA's to evaluate each one and decide whether they should sign or not (which would involve some research for many players, frankly). Easier to just let the market decide. For 75% of the RFA's, we could probably just sign them. The rest are in the grey area of whether they could possibly get an offer sheet, of which only a small % do. But it is not insignificant by any means.
Either way, in my experience, any time we let agents "judge" who should accept a QO, and who should not, it will lead to great debate and protests from GM's who feel they have been wronged. "Why did his guy take a QO, and mine didn't !!!", "I got screwed!". It would be a poor process. Again, just let the market decide.
In the end, do you have some examples of RFA's that didn't accept a QO originally, but then did later, and show how the team really got screwed? I always find this argument strange when GM's compain about HAVING to pay the QO, when (A) they signed them to the original contract and knew what the QO would be, (B) They offered them in the QO a month, if not weeks earlier and the guy's value hasn't dropped during the summer, and (C) it is always because the agent won't accept the dirt cheap 4 year deal.
The bottom line, is if you offered Mike Duco a 4 year deal at the league minimum, as agents, we would simply say no thanks, let him sit on your prospect list and be done with it until next year, at which time he would be a year older and closer to UFA, and you would still need to tender a QO 10% higher than the last one.
Just curious, but can you give me an NHL example of where a pending RFA took a major pay cut on a long-term deal to stay with the same team, versus just testing free agency? So why do you think this should take place in the HFNHL?
