Revamped Roster’s Using Advanced Analytics

Elvs

Registered User
Jul 3, 2006
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As someone who used to edit all player overalls myself, I respect the commitment. But I wonder why nearly everyone's so fast? As a Ducks fan, Getzlaf and Steel ain't 91 speed. Silferberg isn't 94 and Lindholm/Rakell aren't 95. Max Jones, who's just 85 speed, is faster than all of them. And why is David Backes strenght a mere 78? That one especially buggles me :huh:
 

bruins2012

Registered User
Aug 26, 2018
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Kaohsiung, Taiwan
As someone who used to edit all player overalls myself, I respect the commitment. But I wonder why nearly everyone's so fast? As a Ducks fan, Getzlaf and Steel ain't 91 speed. Silferberg isn't 94 and Lindholm/Rakell aren't 95. Max Jones, who's just 85 speed, is faster than all of them. And why is David Backes strenght a mere 78? That one especially buggles me :huh:

I usually do my own edits too, but most of the guys end up basically the same since I’m just using weight for strength and what I might know about that player.

Do you ever put any stats like aggression/body checking for a player that doesn’t play a physical game and that weighs somewhere in the 170lb range? The lowest I usually go for any stat is 70ish.
 

Elvs

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Jul 3, 2006
12,284
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I usually do my own edits too, but most of the guys end up basically the same since I’m just using weight for strength and what I might know about that player.

Do you ever put any stats like aggression/body checking for a player that doesn’t play a physical game and that weighs somewhere in the 170lb range? The lowest I usually go for any stat is 70ish.

I edit my players with Franchise Mode in mind. So first of all, I think of the overalls which determines the player roles. Since Erik Cernak was mentioned before and he's a player I follow closely (I'm nerdy about Slovak players), I can tell that my targeted overall for him would be 81. Because that seems to be EA's standard for an ok #4 or a very good #5 defenseman.

But since you ask about aggression/body checking relative to size, I will use Chris Wagner as an example in another post. I'll edit him in the game now and after I will explain my reasoning for each attribute.
 
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Elvs

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Jul 3, 2006
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Okay, so typically I will use NHL.com stats (for hits, blocked shots and faceoffs), Youtube highlights (for skating and shooting power) and, of course, my own knowledge about the player. The Sports Forecaster has short scouting reports on all players which can be useful (but sometimes misleading). Anyway, this is also the site I use to see a players point totals and icetime, because the site is simple and quick to load.

Note that in Franchise Mode, forwards in the 79-81 range will either be a "3rd line checking forward" or a "3rd line scoring forward". I'm not sure if the attributes play a role in this, but the player type certainly does. A sniper/playmaker/power forward tends to get labeled "3rd line scoring forward" while a two-way forward/grinder tends to be labeled "3rd line checking forward" if their overall is in that 79-81 range.

For Wagner, I want to keep his role to "4th line forward". My targeted overall here is 78.

wagner2.jpg


This is how he I made him.

First of all, I've learned to avoid making players into the grinder type as much as possible, and it seems EA does the same thing. The reasoing is grinders tend to fall way down the depth chart even in the AHL, but more importantly they ruin chemistry in franchise mode. The only NHL level players I make into grinder types, are those who would be playing depth roles even at the AHL level. Nicolas Deslauriers or Zac Rinaldo for example.

I'm a Ducks fan and watch the Bruins quite often, so I know Wagner's game well. I don't really have to watch youtube on him, but I did refresh my memory a little for the sake of this post. Anyway, below is my reasoning behind each attribute:

---

Puck Skills:


Deking (84): For a 4th liner who doesn't put up a lot of points, Wagner has surprisingly good hands.

Hand-Eye (81): I can't remember him scoring many goals on deflections, but when you go below 80 they are almost incapable of deflections in the game.

Passing (80): He doesn't put up a lot of assists, but is at least a better passer than his numbers suggests. I was leaning towards 79, but there's not many guys I give below 80.

Puck control (83): Again, as with his deking, he's got better puck skills than most people would think. Also his scouting report says: "He is fairly good at maintaining possession of the puck" although it mostly comes from his strong lower body.

---

Defense:

Defensive awareness (84): This is a tricky one. Because while I think this is a tad high for Wagner, EA really has some inflated numbers in this category. Basically they give any offensive star player a high defensive rating. I try my best to fix it, but don't want to sacrifice their whole overall. Meanwhile, if I'm playing Franchise Mode with my friend, I don't want my friend to think Wagner is a lousy penalty kill option and someone like Ovechkin or Kane a great option. So while those guys probably end up with a defensive awarness number of 84 or 85, at least Wagner at 84 is a viable option for the kill.

Face offs (74): This one is also interesting. If you check EA's default numbers, you will notice that '80' is actually a decent faceoff stat, while '80' is considered low for other stats. In the past, I would give players too high face off ratings, and new players coming into the league (in franchise mode) would always struggle in the circle. Now '80' is my average. That's what I give someone who wins 50% of faceoffs (combined stats of the last two seasons using NHL.com). In this case Wagner is 45.8% in the last two seasons combined. That would translate to a faceoff rating of 76, but since he doesn't take a ton of draws and his primarly a winger, his rating drops to 74. Players who win draws, but barely takes any, will be rated below 70, and defenseman usually below 50. Long story short, I don't want my friends (when we play franchise together) to use wingers as centers.

Shot blocking (83): For a defenseman, one block per game is quite little. For a forward, one block per game is a lot. I use NHL.com for this stat (same as with faceoffs, I check the last two seasons combined). Wagner has 69 blocks in his last 143 regular season games. Nearly 0.5 blocks per game, which seems to be about average for a forward. But then I also keep in mind that he's only playing 10 minutes per game, but at the same time I keep in mind he typically sees some time on the penalty kill which helps pad this stat. In hindsight, I think I should've given him 82.

Stick checking (85): This one I don't have a good strategy for. Basically I stem this one on memory, and try to keep the number close to the other defensive stats. If a player is tall and have a long reach/stick, that can also help. Also, if a defenseman is known for being very good defensively, but isn't overly physical, he's likely to get a good stick checking rating. Hampus Lindholm I give above 90 in this. The same with Patrice Bergeron.

---

Senses:

Discipline (78): I used to be more harsh with this one, but felt my players took too many penalties. Because I just check the amount of penalty mintues relative to games played and ice time. Wagner has quite many minutes in the last couple of years, but a couple of those comes from fights I think. He also had years in the past where he didn't take as many penalties, which gave him a slightly better number.

Offensive awareness (80): I rarely go below 80 with NHL forwards, but same as with passing, Wagner was close to 79 here. He has the skill set to produce like a 3rd liner, so I feel it's his offensive IQ and confidence with the puck that holds him back. On the other hand, I think he'd be capable of 45-ish points in the AHL, so I think he at least has some offensive awareness. Keep in mind this stat isn't only about vision and finding teammates with passes, but also helps a player score goals (with a higher rating they can more easily spot the openings behind the goalie).

Poise (80): This one I decide based on a mix of the players overall number, as well as their age and experience, namely playoff experience and success. So in the case with Wagner, he is an 78 overall, but I think he can raise his level to 80 in a playoff series. He has some experience at this point and he's been in the finals. He didn't produce like Nordstrom or Kuraly did, but overall all the Bruins bottom six guys did a good job in those playoffs.

---

Skating:

Acceleration (84): The skating categories are maybe the most tricky. In real games, you rarely see guys go full speed (especially not defenseman), and often when they appear slow they are just tired after an extended shift. I watched a couple of highlights of Wagner now, and on one breakaway he shows at least some speed, and on another breakaway he looks very slow. From my memory of him in Anaheim, he's just average. You have to keep a players size in mind also. A bigger player than Wagner could be slower with the same rating. Anyway, in terms of acceleration, simply try to pay attention to guys first steps when you're watching games or highlights. You will be surprised with how some small guys are really quick, but aren't as fast as you'd imagine. And the opposite goes for larger players, they are often slow in terms of acceleration, but can have pretty good top speed once they get going. But there are many exceptions even to that rule. Josh Manson and Kevan Miller are big defensive defenseman who owns a very good first step, but poor top speed.

Agility (86): While Wagner isn't the fastest guy around, he skates pretty well. I should maybe have given him 87 here.

Balance (89): One of his biggest strenghts. Of course I don't know how much he squats or anything, but there are clues that can help us determine this. First of all, the scouting report says "Has a strong lower base". Second of all, he's pretty heavy for a shorter guy. Third of all, there's youtube videos of him absolutely wrecking people much bigger than himself while he barely loses his balance at all. It's pretty obvious that he must have a strong core.

Endurance (82): For this one I mainly check icetime and age. Wagner doesn't play much in Boston, but is in his prime age. He could probably handle more ice time from an endurance standpoint, but still we don't want to go overboard. Most players will be in the 82-86 range. Some defensemen who play 24 minutes per game, or forwards who play 19-20 minutes, could get a rating above 90 in this category. Nearly nobody gets below 80, unless they are a 35+ year old enforcer playing 4 minutes per game or something.

Speed (84): Bascially I already touched on everything before when I talked about acceleration. Nothing more to add.

---

Shooting:

Slapshot accuracy (80): He scores goals at a decent rate for a defensive minded 4th liner. Enough to get an 80 rating at least, especially when you factor in his little icetime and no PP time.

Slapshot power (82): This one I'm not sure of. Like the majority of forwards, he doesn't shoot a lot of slappers. I found a youtube clip where he shot a muffin, though it was probably a bit of a missfire.

Wrist shot accuracy (81): Same as with slapshot accuracy, but should be slightly better. For the accuracy categories, note that I care more about raw goal totals than shooting percentage. The reason is simple: there's no way to know how many shots a player will fire in franchise mode. If a guy has a high shooting percentage in real life, but doesn't shoot much, I run the risk of them shooting much more in my franchise mode, and thus they could get many more goals than what's realistic. I don't want that.

Wrist shot power (84): It's neither weak or strong. Pretty average, but good enough to score the occasional goal with.

---

Physical:

Aggressiveness (96): I've read this one helps players dish out those really big hits, but mainly it makes players hit more often. I know this because I've tested editing players with 99 aggressivness/36 body checking and vice versa, and then simmed seasons and checked the stats of number of hits. Wagner hits a ton, 439 hits in his last 143 regular season games. So his high rating here is self explanatory. But there's also guys like Andrew Cogliano and Zach Parise, who don't hit a ton, but they skate really hard on the forecheck. So for them, I try to keep the body checking low but boost their aggressive a little. But I'm not sure if it actually helps them work harder in the game. On the other side of the spectrum, you have guy who don't hit a ton, but will really make you feel it once they do. Think Niklas Kronwall. He would have high body checking but not so high aggresviness.

Body checking (94): Besides from hitting plenty, Wagner also has a very good hitting technique. Along with his balance which we discussed before, it helps him wreck people who are much bigger than himself.

Durability (84): This determines how easily a player gets injured. For this stat, I check how many games a guy has played in recent years. The Forecaster site easily shows if a player was healthy scratched or out with injury (check the game log on any player). Age is also a factor here, as well as icetime. Wagner playing so few minutes is why his durability isn't higher. When you're playing 10 minutes instead of 20, the risk of injury obviously decreases. I don't want 4th liners in the game to be immune to injuries.

Fighting (72): I was too lazy to check his fights on youtube. Anyway, I try to make more distance between players in this category. In the game, it's too easy to beat some big goon in a fight even if you're controlling some smallish playmaker. The guys who don't fight at all, I usually give a rating in the 60's, but also has the fighting frequency set to "never". Chris Wagner would belong to the "rarely" category. He'll throw the gloves occasionaly, against middle- or leightweight players.

Strenght (86): You gotta know the strenght cateogry affects a bunch of other stats. Slap shot power. Hitting. Balance. Fighting. Possibly even puck control. But you also gotta take into account that size has an affect here. While Wagner's lower body (balance) is where his main strenght lays, he's pretty strong overall for a smaller guy. When I decide this number, age might also come into play, because "man strenght". When you're 28, you're likely to be stronger than you were at 21, even if you weigh the same. You could also pay attention to guy's physice when they are being interviewed with no hockey gear on ;) Seriously though, some smaller guys are built like tanks while some players are mostly heavy because they are tall, not because they are overly strong.
 
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Elvs

Registered User
Jul 3, 2006
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That was a super long post... Anyway, to answer your question, you should avoid giving players low body checking or strenght just because they are small. Remember that size and speed has an affect on the attributes. A player who is big and fast can wreck anyone in the game, even if their body checking rating is low. But for a guy like Chris Wagner, who is quite small and has average speed, you wanna give him enough strenght/balance/body checking/aggressivness to be able to play his game.







If you give him physical/hitting stats in the 70's or low 80's, just because he's small, he's never gonna be able to deliver these kind of hits in the game.
 

Igor Shestyorkin

#26, the sickest of 'em all.
Apr 17, 2015
11,090
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Moscow, RUS
I saw you use "advanced analytics" but then you also made Brett Howden a 79 overall. Analytically, he's an AHLer, so I'm not sure what the parameters here are?
 

abo9

Registered User
Jun 25, 2017
9,087
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I just had a quick look through the overalls but seems like younger/lesser known players get a 1-2 bump, while well-reputated players get a little knock. Interesting to see and love the commitment!
 

abo9

Registered User
Jun 25, 2017
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Okay so I just read the goalie update one (because goalies <3 )

Awesome job! How much work went into this? Idk how EA does their ratings each year (manually???) , but with some automation they could probably do the ratings of every players based on the previous year's stats (maybe even weighted across a couple past seasons) and come up ahead of what they currently do. Putting it in place might be some work, but then it would be smooth sailing every year. You looking at only one year does bring up some weird names like Ullmark, but he's been great in Buffalo so why not? No reason he should be close in ratings as Elliott as in the original ratings.

It might be harder to include prospects, but setting their potentials based on stats could probably be doable too.

Basing it on stats alone obviously won't be 100% accurate, but there's no way they pay people to "scout" every NHL players + prospects + euro leagues. I'll have to read your exerpt on skaters, since I could see how one would come up with checking/hitting ratings, but have a harder time how one would come up with speed and agility for example.

Props for your work, hope you enjoy your new revamped rosters!
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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Dec 6, 2011
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I wish they did stuff like Madden where they try to create a bit of separation.

Skaters:

1st liners should be 83+ depending on how good they are

2nd liners should be rated between 78-83

3rd liners should be between 73-78, with the better 3rd liners around 78-80

4th liners, extra forwards, and AHLers should be between 60-72

1st pairing D should be 83+ depending on how good they are

2nd pairing D should be in the 76-82 range, with only the better 2nd pairing D being over 80

3rd pairing D should be in the 70-75 range

7th/8th D and AHLers should be in the 60-70 range

Younger players should have their speed/shot/passing be what it should be for their potential/draft position, but lower on offensive/defensive awareness.

The better Euros should be in the 3rd/4th line or 3rd pairing range

Goalies:

Starters should be 77+ depending on how good they are

Backups should be 67-75

AHL goalies should be in the 60-70 range


And my opinion is that they should be objective: Is this guy a 1st liner on any team? etc.

Opinion: Only the top 3 players at each position should be over 90. If you want to do it a certain way, you can have the previous year's awards finalists as the 90 OA players.

Forwards like McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon
Defensemen like Hedman, Josi, Carlson
Goalies like Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Rask
 
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