So basically you are saying dont sign ovie so we can protect a richard panik or Carl hagelin? Plus that would leave like 5 days from the expansion draft to when Ovechkin can sign with any team
Leaving Ovechkin unsigned allows them to opt for the protect 8 total skaters route, rather than 7F & 3D. With an unsiged Ovie, there's only really four forwards worth protecting (Vrana, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Wilson), leaving them the ability to protect four defensemen. Obviously how the D shakes out over the next 11-13 months (or however long it ends up being before the expansion draft) will figure heavily into these calculations (Does Dillon Stay? Does Kempny Rebound? Does Jensen seize the 2RD role?). This also assumes the team is fine with moving on from Oshie (who will be 34 and presents hometown appeal to Seattle).
I'm not particularly scared about Ovechkin signing with a different team. And it wouldn't be the first time the Capitals opted for leaving a player unsigned to grant de facto protection from the expansion draft (they did it with Oshie).