Report: Oilers fire stats blogger Tyler Dellow?

[pucka lucka]

Fine, so you don't care if you're taken seriously. Apparently, I understand this much of your point. Maybe I'm learning.

So you are going to continue to make **** up aren't you? Keep insulting me, I know you think its winning you something. I thought posters were off limits here ?

 

[Hammer Time]

Honest question, what information could the guy provide that isn't known to any hockey team?

I say moron because he acts like stats are the be all end all of the NHL and hockey.

On Dellow's old website (which has now shut down), he had a very thorough article about Duncan Keith. Keith had a poor Relative Corsi in 2013, so Dellow did some research into what caused that by watching game film and digging up NHL play-by-play data from every Hawks game that season. He eventually discovered that the way the Hawks were making line changes was screwing with the Corsi, and if you looked a little deeper into the numbers, Keith was, in fact, a great defenceman. I think his final conclusion, based on how much Keith's presence impacted the Hawks' shot and goal totals, was that he was worth 5-10% in the standings.

I think this is really possible. The guy's a complete *******.

Yep, that's always been the issue with him.

It reminds me so much of the great baseball story, "Moneyball", except for the winning and success and stuff.

But you know, other teams that have actually won stuff do buy in to hockey analytics. Let's look at the consensus two best teams in the NHL right now:

- I remember seeing a TSN interview in the playoffs where one of the LA assistant coaches was talking about Corsi. Darryl Sutter is on the record as saying that puck possession is the key to success in today's NHL. Also, Dean Lombardi mentioned when he took the LA job that he wanted "a cultural change" and cited Moneyball as one of his influences (after all, he was GM in San Jose at the same time when Beane had his big season with the A's).

- Also, according to Blackhawks blogger Jen Lute Costello (who has connections in the organization), the Hawks have been tracking zone entries and exits, which is something that most analytics websites don't even track yet. I suspect that some NHL teams may be ahead of the stats bloggers - they're just not revealing anything.

 

[pucka lucka]

I thought I brought up his exact position a few posts up? It looks pretty clear. He doesn't believe teams have personnel or companies track stats that aren't available to the public.

Hopefully he comes back to clarify.

Is the word stats interchangeable with data? You don't even know what I said.

 

[Seedling]

Is the word stats interchangeable with data? You don't even know what I said.

So how do you feel about the Oilers? Not even kidding. What could a guy who knows stats like you do, do for them? Clearly they need as much help as they can get. I find the whole subject very interesting, and clearly, you have some insight into this field that the rest of us don't understand because we don't work in that field.

What do you see when you look at the Oilers? Who are the guys that you think are overrated and underrated? What would they benefit from etc.

Honestly, I would like your thoughts on it. Thanks in advance.

 

[Aceonfire*]

Were people honestly expecting a miraculous turnaround because Dellow was hired?

He was brought in as an analytics consultant for Eakins. His job was to consult, he had zero power.

The idea was to give themselves an advantage if they could find one.

Dellow has done some great work. His article on Anaheim and losing faceoffs in the OZ was great.

When Eakins was fired, Dellow was no longer a consultant. Simple as that.

The frustrating thing about this is that he likely presented his findings and the team looked the other way.

 

[Seedling]

Were people honestly expecting a miraculous turnaround because Dellow was hired?

He was brought in as an analytics consultant for Eakins. His job was to consult, he had zero power.

The idea was to give themselves an advantage if they could find one.

Dellow has done some great work. His article on Anaheim and losing faceoffs in the OZ was great.

When Eakins was fired, Dellow was no longer a consultant. Simple as that.

The frustrating thing about this is that he likely presented his findings and the team looked the other way.

I alluded to this earlier in the thread. Basically his job is to show things that others cannot see and see if there is a way to act on it, correct it or capitalize on it if it is indeed a real "thing".

Whether or not the people he reported that information to had the desire or capability to use it is another issue altogether.

To me, as I said earlier, a stats/analytics guru is an extension of your scouting and coaching. Their job is to see issues and trends, things that are not traditionally obvious and communicate that to the other part of the scouting/coaching team in a way that they are able to act on it, should they choose to.

I don't think it's a position where you'd ever be able to measure the true impact of what that person does and most things would be trends that either change over time or don't (again, human personality and influence factors).

I think if you hire one of these guys/gals you really have to believe in what they do because the results will be tough to measure. Being that this field is in it's genesis for most NHL clubs and personnel, it's going to take time to see if it's embraced or not on certain clubs.

I don't think you hire on of these analytical folks and expect them to fix your club over time. They simply reveal a different perspective based on their method of manipulating data that is not the traditional stuff we've been used to.

My feeling is Dellow was hired as an Eakins guy and dumped when Eakins was as the others didn't really believe he was of long term value. Either that or there was an issue in the dynamics of the relationship and that is really something that happens in every job. Sometimes it just doesn't fit the situation. You move on, on both sides of the relationship.

Just my two cents of speculation.

 

[Stoneman89]

Help drive the team into the ground?

Help drive the team into the ground?

Where was the team, exactly, when he was hired? Yeah, they sure are significantly worse now. Good call. What team have you been watching?

Perhaps the team continued their ways by ignoring any advice they were given. Perhaps the analytics showed longer-term strategies for which we haven't seen the results yet (and may not at all, now).

Or perhaps the analytics he was providing were useless. Bottom line, the team was susbstantially worse with him and his buddy Eakins. Substantially. On the scoreboard, to the eye, in the standings. You know, in all the things that really count. Except for the fancy graphs and charts. Darn.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Or perhaps the analytics he was providing were useless. Bottom line, the team was susbstantially worse with him and his buddy Eakins. Substantially. On the scoreboard, to the eye, in the standings. You know, in all the things that really count. Except for the fancy graphs and charts. Darn.

This past year was substantially worse than the past few, where they've been picking #1 overall off-and-on? Dubious.

 

[Seedling]

Or perhaps the analytics he was providing were useless. Bottom line, the team was susbstantially worse with him and his buddy Eakins. Substantially. On the scoreboard, to the eye, in the standings. You know, in all the things that really count. Except for the fancy graphs and charts. Darn.

Our corsi was off the charts to start the year though!! Woohoo!!

 

[Voight]

The frustrating thing about this is that he likely presented his findings and the team looked the other way.

That is likely to happen when your management team for the last 15 years is composed of former hockey players who played thirty years ago.

 

[Seedling]

This past year was substantially worse than the past few, where they've been picking #1 overall off-and-on? Dubious.

It was atrocious how much worse they were. Not even kidding. Nelson seems to be getting them to at least play harder for now.

Eakins seems to be a guy that was really, really disliked by the players to a man. Eakins was just a disaster in every way you could possibly imagine. Every player regressed under him except maybe Hall.

He should have been canned last season but MacT handcuffed himself with all the statements of "too many coaches" etc. It doesn't matter how many coaches you get if all you do is hire crappy ones and have the worst development systems in the league.

Quinn, Renney, Krueger to Eakins. That's some kind of awful trending in experienced coaching.

Then you have the scouting in Edmonton....it's a real mess. Having said that, Eakins was truly the most terrible coach I've seen at the NHL level. It's not even close.

 

[Seedling]

That is likely to happen when your management team for the last 15 years is composed of former hockey players who played thirty years ago.

I am a big proponent of the "full house cleaning" needing to be done in Edmonton but really, couldn't that statement above apply to almost all the teams in the league?

 

[Voight]

I am a big proponent of the "full house cleaning" needing to be done in Edmonton but really, couldn't that statement above apply to almost all the teams in the league?

Not exactly. Some of the leagues best GMs like Lombardi, Bowman, and Chiarelli never played pro.

 

[Seedling]

Not exactly. Some of the leagues best GMs like Lombardi, Bowman, and Chiarelli never played pro.

True, but what I was really alluding to is that every team is riddled with guys from "15 years ago" that played hockey from another era.

The real difference, to me, is whether or not they have been able to or are willing to adapt to what the NHL is now. I should have worded that better. (not just the GM)

I would think that being a former player is a massive advantage so long as you learn all the stuff that players are not exposed to during their careers on how to properly run a team. Having the proper mentors to do that is obviously key. Really, before becoming the head executives in Edmonton, Lowe and MacT had really done nothing to merit that position other than being good old Oilers. Nobody should be able to argue against that IMO.

Then you have a team like Detroit that takes Yzerman and he shadows Holland for a few years. Same with Draper now. Good teams with good management identify guys who have the ability to learn the management stuff. Then they train them properly. None of that has happened here in Edmonton.

I'm not saying at all that you need to have even played the game to be a good executive. You don't, but it sure would give you a good start in understanding the culture. I think the difference is the way the new GM is trained to think and adapt vs. the traditional jock type GM who just knows a "thing or two about winning".

Is that fair? I think we are on the same page.

 

[Knave]

Were people honestly expecting a miraculous turnaround because Dellow was hired?

Hold on - they didn't stand still, they got worse.

 

[Voight]

True, but what I was really alluding to is that every team is riddled with guys from "15 years ago" that played hockey from another era.

The real difference, to me, is whether or not they have been able to or are willing to adapt to what the NHL is now. I should have worded that better. (not just the GM)

I would think that being a former player is a massive advantage so long as you learn all the stuff that players are not exposed to during their careers on how to properly run a team. Having the proper mentors to do that is obviously key. Really, before becoming the head executives in Edmonton, Lowe and MacT had really done nothing to merit that position other than being good old Oilers. Nobody should be able to argue against that IMO.

Then you have a team like Detroit that takes Yzerman and he shadows Holland for a few years. Same with Draper now. Good teams with good management identify guys who have the ability to learn the management stuff. Then they train them properly. None of that has happened here in Edmonton.

I'm not saying at all that you need to have even played the game to be a good executive. You don't, but it sure would give you a good start in understanding the culture. I think the difference is the way the new GM is trained to think and adapt vs. the traditional jock type GM who just knows a "thing or two about winning".

Is that fair? I think we are on the same page.

I agree totally. Former players turned GMs can turn out great (Yzerman) or horrible (Milbury) just depends who mentors/teaches them and what organization they're with.

Pretty sure any Oiler from the 80's can get a high level job with them now

 

[Seedling]

I agree totally. Former players turned GMs can turn out great (Yzerman) or horrible (Milbury) just depends who mentors/teaches them and what organization they're with.

Pretty sure any Oiler from the 80's can get a high level job with them now

Gawd I hope we stop that trend.

 

[King In The North]

I agree totally. Former players turned GMs can turn out great (Yzerman) or horrible (Milbury) just depends who mentors/teaches them and what organization they're with.

Pretty sure any Oiler from the 80's can get a high level job with them now

Yzerman actually spent years learning management. Lowe and McTavish collectively have 0 years experience in front office prior to taking GM roles and more.

 

[bohlmeister]

Don't need analytics to tell you that team sucks.

Tyler was probably making Lowe and MacTavish look bad.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Pretty obvious they never listened to him anyway. Gotta wonder why they even bothered to hire him in the first place if they weren't going to listen to him at all.

because it was cool to hire these stats guys?

 

[Kimota]

Don't worry, they only did that so they could hire him as the new goalie coach.

 

[BillDineen]

They may have many inferior techniques ( I know they do) they use. They have the same data everyone else has access to. Things will change when those tracking systems get into place, assuming they work. I find it odd that people think NHL teams have some kind of secret knowledge no one else has access to.

"Another frontier approach to player and game performance analytics is to gather proprietary data on players. Most teams make use of widely-available data that is provided by their league or by commercial firms that sell player and team data. A few highly analytical teams, however, gather their own proprietary data, or adopt technologies that produce it. There are several examples across sports:"

http://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en_us/doc/whitepaper2/iia-analytics-in-sports-106993.pdf

Then the article provides NON-NHL examples from nba, baseball and nfl on proprietary data.

Blackhawks:

"Models like this are commonplace in baseball, where Sabremetrics have a place in every organization’s front office, and they serve a valuable place in professional football even among viewers now that Fantasy Football is so popular. And while Bowman hints that many NHL teams have access to the same kinds of software and analytics tools, the Blackhawks have added their own “proprietary†toolset to make it more effective.

“Stats are what they are,†Bowman told the Sun Times. “There’s no disputing who scored the goal, or who was on the ice for the goal. That’s fact. What you do with that is sort of the real value. And I think there’s an art to it. The analytics themselves are very objective. But then you have to do something with them and draw conclusions.

“What we do is different,†Bowman added. “I think it’s better, but I guess it’s a matter of opinion. It’s also a competitive advantage. That stuff’s readily available, but what we have is more proprietary. Which is why I’m really trying not to talk about it. I think what we do gives us an advantage over other teams. They might say I’m wrong, but we’re pretty confident that what we have works.â€

http://www.nextgov.com/big-data/2014/05/what-feds-can-learn-chicago-blackhawks-data-analytics/83686/

Leafs:

"
Now the Leafs are going to the next level, announcing on Thursday a partnership with analytics leader SAS to help them with a data-driven approach to judging player performance and creating on-ice strategy.
SAS is more famous for using analytics to help banks and insurance companies make financially sound decisions. Now the company is going to provide the Leafs with real-time analysis of all the stats the NHL provides — and proprietary stats provided by Dubas and the Leafs — to help the team make decisions."


“The video system the team uses is so intricate and interesting,†says Dubas. “It produces a lot of data for the coaching staff and the front office.
“Scoring chances are certainly worth tracking, and certainly interesting. But we’re trying to go beyond much further beyond scoring chances. Scoring chances are more toward the end result of a much longer process.â€
The Leafs will continue to produce their own proprietary data.
"


http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2014/10/16/maple_leafs_make_deal_with_analytics_company_sas.html

 

[I am the Liquor]

Hilarious that teams so fundamentally flawed like the Oilers believe statistical analysis will make a difference.

 

[BHD]

Not surprising, if he was indeed let go. Pretty sure Oilers management couldn't stand being corrected all the time, especially in Dellow-ian fashion.

 

[Hivemind]

@supahdupah

Do you have access to a full-ice camera view of every game? Including minor leagues?
Do you have access to combine-like stats and player benchmarks?
Do you have access to every team's practices?

If not: Then, no, you don't have all the data.