Confirmed with Link: Report: Couture to sign 8-year, $8m AAV contract extension (begins for 2019/20 season)

[Maladroit]

When you say lit up, you mean playing against top comp every night and still coming out on the + side?

And when you say he contributes nothing offensively, you mean that in the context of him being 22nd in the NHL for D goals and 44th in D points last season?

Got it....

By lit up I mean the Sharks carried just 45.9% of shot attempts with Vlasic-Braun on the ice last season and 46.2% in 2016-17. Compare that to 53% in 2015-16 (51% in 14-15, a ridiculous 59% in 13-14) and it's clear they've dropped off precipitously. They've always played the most difficult minutes so it's not like that changed over the past two seasons. And before you say that shots don't matter, only goals do, we were also outscored 45-50 with Vlasic-Braun on the ice at even strength this season and outscored 34-37 the previous year.

Vlasic had the highest on-ice SH% of any Shark last season except for Goodrow and Hansen who barely played. Anyone who's ever watched one shift of Vlasic knows he's not the one driving that. He had a lucky season, especially on the goal scoring side, that he probably won't repeat. He can't pass or shoot the puck, I'm not breaking new ground here for anyone who actually watches him play.

I think Vlasic will be fine defensively if he's paired with someone other than Braun but there's zero indication the Sharks even know this is an issue let alone are taking any steps to fix it.

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

Thought this was a Logan thread??
Demelo? Vlasic?
Let's stay on topic maybe??
Something like
Miere-hertl-logan??

 

[Mattb124]

By lit up I mean the Sharks carried just 45.9% of shot attempts with Vlasic-Braun on the ice last season and 46.2% in 2016-17. Compare that to 53% in 2015-16 (51% in 14-15, a ridiculous 59% in 13-14) and it's clear they've dropped off precipitously. They've always played the most difficult minutes so it's not like that changed over the past two seasons. And before you say that shots don't matter, only goals do, we were also outscored 45-50 with Vlasic-Braun on the ice at even strength this season and outscored 34-37 the previous year.

Vlasic had the highest on-ice SH% of any Shark last season except for Goodrow and Hansen who barely played. Anyone who's ever watched one shift of Vlasic knows he's not the one driving that. He had a lucky season, especially on the goal scoring side, that he probably won't repeat. He can't pass or shoot the puck, I'm not breaking new ground here for anyone who actually watches him play.

I think Vlasic will be fine defensively if he's paired with someone other than Braun but there's zero indication the Sharks even know this is an issue let alone are taking any steps to fix it.

Vlasic and Braun's results have declined, I dont think anyone is challenging that. The hyperbole used to vastly overstate the degree of the decline however...

Am I understanding you position correctly that Vlasic is an offensive black hole because last year doesn't count because he was lucky? Because you watch hockey and no one else here (or at least no one who holds an alternate opinion) does?

A few years back Vlasic had virtually the same level of ES points as Doughty. Another lucky year?

 

[Maladroit]

Vlasic and Braun's results have declined, I dont think anyone is challenging that. The hyperbole used to vastly overstate the degree of the decline however...

Am I understanding you position correctly that Vlasic is an offensive black hole because last year doesn't count because he was lucky? Because you watch hockey and no one else here (or at least no one who holds an alternate opinion) does?

A few years back Vlasic had virtually the same level of ES points as Doughty. Another lucky year?

I think the numbers paint a pretty clear picture that the decline is massive. This was arguably the best defense pairing in the league, considering the difficulty of minutes that they were playing (and continue to play), two years ago. Now it's probably the worst first pairing in the NHL. I don't think it's possible to be hyperbolic about that kind of a drop off.

Personally I don't think points are a great way to measure a defenseman's contribution to offense outside of the top guys like Burns, Karlsson and Subban who put up huge points year in and year out. For the vast majority of NHL defensemen there's little to no correlation in their point totals from one year to the next - it's largely random and driven by players and events outside of the defenseman's control. So Vlasic having a couple of moderately productive years doesn't really mean much to me as someone who watches every Sharks game and can clearly recognize his vast limitations with the puck. If you disagree that's fine but I think most people who watch Vlasic intently would agree that he's not an offensive player.

 

[Sharksrule04]

By lit up I mean the Sharks carried just 45.9% of shot attempts with Vlasic-Braun on the ice last season and 46.2% in 2016-17. Compare that to 53% in 2015-16 (51% in 14-15, a ridiculous 59% in 13-14) and it's clear they've dropped off precipitously. They've always played the most difficult minutes so it's not like that changed over the past two seasons. And before you say that shots don't matter, only goals do, we were also outscored 45-50 with Vlasic-Braun on the ice at even strength this season and outscored 34-37 the previous year.

Vlasic had the highest on-ice SH% of any Shark last season except for Goodrow and Hansen who barely played. Anyone who's ever watched one shift of Vlasic knows he's not the one driving that. He had a lucky season, especially on the goal scoring side, that he probably won't repeat. He can't pass or shoot the puck, I'm not breaking new ground here for anyone who actually watches him play.

I think Vlasic will be fine defensively if he's paired with someone other than Braun but there's zero indication the Sharks even know this is an issue let alone are taking any steps to fix it.

This nonsense right here is why people get annoyed with fans obsessed with advanced stats and then throw back arguments of "have you ever played bro" and "do you even watch the game". If you were the GM you'd probably trade Vlasic because of the above stats. Personally I dislike +/- but I'd take that any day over your shot attempt stats. Who cares about shot attempts? A defenseman could be in perfectly good position and still have plenty of shots attempted against him and I'd always assume the defenseman playing against the best forwards would face more shots/attempts. Despite playing against the best players last season Braun and Vlasic still had the best +/- among our d-men with exception of Ryan.

Is Vlasic a bit worse than he was in his best seasons? Sure, but he's still a top 5 shutdown d-man in the NHL, you don't get rid of that because there is no realistic replacement. I don't love these 7-8 year deals that are being handed out but that is modern NHL. Accept it and move on because it is not changing. Stop worrying about 6-7 years from now when it comes to one of the best d-men in the NHL. If that deal is what we needed to keep him in teal, you sign it. Plain and simple.

Also, I'd never mistake Vlasic for an offensive d-man but to deny that he can put the puck in the net is just dumb. His game isn't pretty offensively but he's averaging 9.5 goals, 24.6 assists and 34.1 points per 82 games over the last 4 seasons, mostly coming even strength.

People are so bored right now, that we've literally come to the point where we're complaining about a world class defensive d-man who has been shutting down the NHL's stars for a good 12 years right now.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Let's keep this thread about Couture. Any Vlasic talk should go in the Roster Thread. Thank you.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I think the numbers paint a pretty clear picture that the decline is massive. This was arguably the best defense pairing in the league, considering the difficulty of minutes that they were playing (and continue to play), two years ago. Now it's probably the worst first pairing in the NHL. I don't think it's possible to be hyperbolic about that kind of a drop off.

Personally I don't think points are a great way to measure a defenseman's contribution to offense outside of the top guys like Burns, Karlsson and Subban who put up huge points year in and year out. For the vast majority of NHL defensemen there's little to no correlation in their point totals from one year to the next - it's largely random and driven by players and events outside of the defenseman's control. So Vlasic having a couple of moderately productive years doesn't really mean much to me as someone who watches every Sharks game and can clearly recognize his vast limitations with the puck. If you disagree that's fine but I think most people who watch Vlasic intently would agree that he's not an offensive player.

Could it be that you don't like the stat that indicates how much scoring directly correlated to a player (points) because it doesn't support your argument? Also, lol at calling Vlasic and Braun the worst first pairing in the NHL.

Once again, how does this team constantly succeed with so many declining mediocre players who are getting horrible contracts while being the worst drafting team? Can someone please answer this? At some point someone has to see how ridiculous all this complaining is?

 

[Maladroit]

This nonsense right here is why people get annoyed with fans obsessed with advanced stats and then throw back arguments of "have you ever played bro" and "do you even watch the game". If you were the GM you'd probably trade Vlasic because of the above stats. Personally I dislike +/- but I'd take that any day over your shot attempt stats. Who cares about shot attempts? A defenseman could be in perfectly good position and still have plenty of shots attempted against him and I'd always assume the defenseman playing against the best forwards would face more shots/attempts. Despite playing against the best players last season Braun and Vlasic still had the best +/- among our d-men with exception of Ryan.

Is Vlasic a bit worse than he was in his best seasons? Sure, but he's still a top 5 shutdown d-man in the NHL, you don't get rid of that because there is no realistic replacement. I don't love these 7-8 year deals that are being handed out but that is modern NHL. Accept it and move on because it is not changing. Stop worrying about 6-7 years from now when it comes to one of the best d-men in the NHL. If that deal is what we needed to keep him in teal, you sign it. Plain and simple.

Also, I'd never mistake Vlasic for an offensive d-man but to deny that he can put the puck in the net is just dumb. His game isn't pretty offensively but he's averaging 9.5 goals, 24.6 assists and 34.1 points per 82 games over the last 4 seasons, mostly coming even strength.

People are so bored right now, that we've literally come to the point where we're complaining about a world class defensive d-man who has been shutting down the NHL's stars for a good 12 years right now.

When did I say I would trade Vlasic beacuse of his poor underlying numbers over the past two seasons? I literally said in the post you've quoted that I think he'll be fine with a different partner. I would have traded Vlasic last summer no matter how he was performing rather than sign him to a contract that carries a $7 million cap hit until he's 39.

 

[Sharksrule04]

When did I say I would trade Vlasic beacuse of his poor underlying numbers over the past two seasons? I literally said in the post you've quoted that I think he'll be fine with a different partner. I would have traded Vlasic last summer no matter how he was performing rather than sign him to a contract that carries a $7 million cap hit until he's 39.

Looping Couture back in this. The way I see it, anyone who wishes we didn't sign these Kane, Couture, Vlasic, and Burns deals doesn't care about winning now and are far too worried about 6-8 years from now. All of these guys are ingredients to winning and you should expect that they will get paid. If you would let these guys go so that you don't have to pay them 6-8 years from now when the cap hit will likely be much lower as a percentage than you can't possibly care about winning now. They're being paid based on how they're performing and all of your negative arguments about these long term deals is purely speculative that they will suddenly drop off a cliff production wise. You can guess all you want about how Couture or Vlasic will play when they're in the mid to late 30's but there is a good chance you'll be wrong. They are however playing among the best players in the league at their positions so these contracts are well earned.

 

[hohosaregood]

Let's keep this thread about Couture. Any Vlasic talk should go in the Roster Thread. Thank you.

Promptly ignored lol

 

[Sharksrule04]

Promptly ignored lol

I was already typing that post so didn't see his message. My last post tried to bring it back on topic.

 

[Nolan11]

Looping Couture back in this. The way I see it, anyone who wishes we didn't sign these Kane, Couture, Vlasic, and Burns deals doesn't care about winning now and are far too worried about 6-8 years from now. All of these guys are ingredients to winning and you should expect that they will get paid. If you would let these guys go so that you don't have to pay them 6-8 years from now when the cap hit will likely be much lower as a percentage than you can't possibly care about winning now. They're being paid based on how they're performing and all of your negative arguments about these long term deals is purely speculative that they will suddenly drop off a cliff production wise. You can guess all you want about how Couture or Vlasic will play when they're in the mid to late 30's but there is a good chance you'll be wrong. They are however playing among the best players in the league at their positions so these contracts are well earned.

Personally, I think Couture will be our next Captain. His long term contract locks him up and signals the next generation of leadership. Those still advocating a tank-job, that ship has sailed (at least for the next 4-5 years). We would need Murphy himself to come down here and set up the dominos to have a top 5 tank. Best we could realistically hope for is a barely miss play-offs and a lottery win. The new core of this team will be around a loooooong while and these players will keep us in the mix. (Sure, other teams in the pacific will get there act together and eventually pass us, but its unlikely 3 of them will until at least 2022). So we as fans should embrace the reverse-tank. We still need a move or two to truly be in the running for the cup. Best we can hope for is DW makes the right moves in next 6-12 months to put us in the conversation for top 4 teams in NHL. (Instead of maybe top 10-12 that we are at the moment).

And these long term contracts are the wave of the future. Until cap stops growing by 4+% a year, we can only expect more of the same around the league.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Looping Couture back in this. The way I see it, anyone who wishes we didn't sign these Kane, Couture, Vlasic, and Burns deals doesn't care about winning now and are far too worried about 6-8 years from now. All of these guys are ingredients to winning and you should expect that they will get paid. If you would let these guys go so that you don't have to pay them 6-8 years from now when the cap hit will likely be much lower as a percentage than you can't possibly care about winning now. They're being paid based on how they're performing and all of your negative arguments about these long term deals is purely speculative that they will suddenly drop off a cliff production wise. You can guess all you want about how Couture or Vlasic will play when they're in the mid to late 30's but there is a good chance you'll be wrong. They are however playing among the best players in the league at their positions so these contracts are well earned.

I care about winning now, but if I feel like there’s a 1% chance to win now and a 0% chance to win in 5 years with these contracts, versus a 0% chance to win now and a 10% chance to win in 5 years without these contracts, then I’ll take the 0% chance to win now if it grants me a 10% chance to win in 5 years. I feel like these contracts completely mortgage our future for a lottery ticket of a shot at winning today even if we were to acquire a Tavares or Seguin level player.

I also believe that Vlasic, Kane, and Couture are all overpaid with how they are performing now. I am using Corsicahockey’s player ratings model because while I understand it is certainly flawed, it takes a lot more into account than just goals and points. I will check GAR/WAR for these guys to see just how accurate these rankings are.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Vlasic 44th in the NHL amongst defensemen - 20th amongst LD. Vlasic also ranked 44th amongst NHL defensemen in points. Vlasic carries the 10th highest cap hit among defenseman in the NHL and the 3rd highest cap hit among left handed defenseman in the NHL. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Vlasic is anywhere near a top-10 NHL defenseman today and/or anywhere near a top-3 left handed defenseman.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Evander Kane 20th among left wingers and 60th among forwards. Kane ranked 9th in goals and 22nd in points among left wingers; he ranked 33rd in goals among forwards and 78th in points among forwards. Kane carries the 4th highest cap hit among left handed wingers and the 26th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Kane is anywhere near a top-5 NHL left winger and/or anywhere near a top-30 NHL forwards.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings rank Logan Couture 23rd among centers and 67th among forwards. Couture finished 9th in goals among centers and 32nd in points among centers; he finished 17th in goals among forwards and 60th in points among forwards. Couture will carry the 12th highest cap hit among centers and the 18th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me evidence that Couture is anywhere near a top-15 NHL Center or a top-20 NHL forward.

 

[Maladroit]

Looping Couture back in this. The way I see it, anyone who wishes we didn't sign these Kane, Couture, Vlasic, and Burns deals doesn't care about winning now and are far too worried about 6-8 years from now. All of these guys are ingredients to winning and you should expect that they will get paid. If you would let these guys go so that you don't have to pay them 6-8 years from now when the cap hit will likely be much lower as a percentage than you can't possibly care about winning now. They're being paid based on how they're performing and all of your negative arguments about these long term deals is purely speculative that they will suddenly drop off a cliff production wise. You can guess all you want about how Couture or Vlasic will play when they're in the mid to late 30's but there is a good chance you'll be wrong. They are however playing among the best players in the league at their positions so these contracts are well earned.

I think you need to keep a balanced view on both the short and long terms, especially for a team like the Sharks who are clearly not one of the top 3-5 Cup contenders in the league right now and realistically don't project to be for quite some time barring a significant addition. That's why I have no problem with the Couture or Burns deals even though I'm sure they'll look pretty bad in three or four years. We need Couture and Burns now and the likelihood of replacing them without trading other significant assets is minimal.

With Kane we know how easy it would have been to find a cheaper, cost and term-controlled replacement for him because Doug Wilson literally went out and did it this summer by flipping Boedker for Hoffman. Hoffman is a better version of Kane making $2mil/yr less for five fewer seasons. The 2016 version of Vlasic is irreplaceable but we've already lost that player. It's not the same Vlasic anymore and given the aging curve of those types of defensemen it's likely that contract will look awful before any of the others. Jones, you could go either way. He's nothing spectacular but I also wouldn't want to trade another first round pick to gamble on some other unproven goalie turning into Jones. At the same time committing that many years to a mediocre starter seems like a bad idea.

Anyway my point is you don't have to be a fan of or hate all of the long-term contracts. Couture and Burns are reasonable because those are guys you need to keep in the short term and would be hard pressed to find anything resembling replacements for. Kane on the other hand is easily replaceable and I think the player Vlasic has declined into wouldn't be tough to replace either, especially if the only alternative was signing him to this deal.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I care about winning now, but if I feel like there’s a 1% chance to win now and a 0% chance to win in 5 years with these contracts, versus a 0% chance to win now and a 10% chance to win in 5 years without these contracts, then I’ll take the 0% chance to win now if it grants me a 10% chance to win in 5 years. I feel like these contracts completely mortgage our future for a lottery ticket of a shot at winning today even if we were to acquire a Tavares or Seguin level player.

I also believe that Vlasic, Kane, and Couture are all overpaid with how they are performing now. I am using Corsicahockey’s player ratings model because while I understand it is certainly flawed, it takes a lot more into account than just goals and points. I will check GAR/WAR for these guys to see just how accurate these rankings are.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Vlasic 44th in the NHL amongst defensemen - 20th amongst LD. Vlasic also ranked 44th amongst NHL defensemen in points. Vlasic carries the 10th highest cap hit among defenseman in the NHL and the 3rd highest cap hit among left handed defenseman in the NHL. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Vlasic is anywhere near a top-10 NHL defenseman today and/or anywhere near a top-3 left handed defenseman.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Evander Kane 20th among left wingers and 60th among forwards. Kane ranked 9th in goals and 22nd in points among left wingers; he ranked 33rd in goals among forwards and 78th in points among forwards. Kane carries the 4th highest cap hit among left handed wingers and the 26th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Kane is anywhere near a top-5 NHL left winger and/or anywhere near a top-30 NHL forwards.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings rank Logan Couture 23rd among centers and 67th among forwards. Couture finished 9th in goals among centers and 32nd in points among centers; he finished 17th in goals among forwards and 60th in points among forwards. Couture will carry the 12th highest cap hit among centers and the 18th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me evidence that Couture is anywhere near a top-15 NHL Center or a top-20 NHL forward.

This is the beginning of the contract, of course it will look inflated when comparing him to players who could be in years 4-6 of their deals or rookie contracts. The deal though is locked in and won't go up so by the time Couture and the others are in years 4-5 he won't be nearly as high on those lists of top paid players.

I'd argue Vlasic is adequately paid now after being heavily underpaid for years. Couture is paid about what he's worth.

I will say this, Couture finished top 10 in goal scoring for Centers so that is argument enough to pay him 8M not to mention his playoff production. A center who can score 35 goals and 65 points is worth 8M IMO.

Kane was worth more towards 6.5M based on past production but I do think after this coming season we will be happy to pay him 7M.

Most importantly though we needed to retain these guys in the event we do get a player like Tavares or Seguin like everyone wants. Yes this team desperately needs that next wave #1C but the #1C won't mean anything if he isn't surrounded by guys like Couture, Vlasic and Kane. I really don't think these players are as replaceable as everyone thinks they are. Kane is most replaceable of the 3 but I still don't think he can just be replaced easily.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Sean Tierney’s GAR model (again, not perfect, but a decent model which is entirely subjective and takes defense into account) ranks Vlasic 49th among defensemen, Kane 99th among forwards and 17th among left wingers, and Couture 133rd among forwards and 75th among centers. The model has way too many wingers listed as centers so the reality is probably closer to Couture being around 40th among centers and Kane being closer to 30th among left wingers according to that model but still, not seeing any sort of statistical evidence that says these guys aren’t paid way too much relative to their peers.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This is the beginning of the contract, of course it will look inflated when comparing him to players who could be in years 4-6 of their deals or rookie contracts. The deal though is locked in and won't go up so by the time Couture and the others are in years 4-5 he won't be nearly as high on those lists of top paid players.

I'd argue Vlasic is adequately paid now after being heavily underpaid for years. Couture is paid about what he's worth.

I will say this, Couture finished top 10 in goal scoring for Centers so that is argument enough to pay him 8M not to mention his playoff production. A center who can score 35 goals and 65 points is worth 8M IMO.

Kane was worth more towards 6.5M based on past production but I do think after this coming season we will be happy to pay him 7M.

Most importantly though we needed to retain these guys in the event we do get a player like Tavares or Seguin like everyone wants. Yes this team desperately needs that next wave #1C but the #1C won't mean anything if he isn't surrounded by guys like Couture, Vlasic and Kane. I really don't think these players are as replaceable as everyone thinks they are. Kane is most replaceable of the 3 but I still don't think he can just be replaced easily.

These guys are also in decline age. Their decline will likely go hand in hand with the decline of their cap hit percentage so the deals might look pretty similar in years 3-4 when they’ve only begun to decline but by years 5-6, the contracts will probably look hideous.

I would totally agree that Vlasic was underpaid in the past, but I also don’t care. I don’t think the steal of a deal that he was on in the past is any sort of justification for the overpayment he was just given. I’m still not seeing any sort of evidence as to why he deserves to be anywhere near the 10th highest paid defenseman in the NHL or the 3rd highest paid LHD. If you would argue that Vlasic deserves to be paid that much, then please do argue and explain why.

Couture did finish 9th in goals among centers, but he also finished 29th in shots among centers and 123rd in individual expected goals for for forwards. His shooting percentage was a whopping 16.7% when he’s shot 12.5% over his career; had he shot at his career shooting percentage over the 204 shots he took this year, he would have scored 26 goals which would have him ranked 28th among centers and 58th among forwardsf. That’s probably more in line with his real abilities as a goal scorer where he ranks 19th among centers and 43rd among forwards over the past 3 seasons.

And, on top of all of that, goal scoring is his best trait! If we’re being generous, Couture is one of the 15 best goal scoring centers and one of the 30 best goal scoring forwards in the NHL. But, what about his defensive work and his playmaking? What about his ability to drive possession? Those traits are nowhere near those ranks among centers and forwards in the NHL. A fair ranking for Couture would probably be around 30 among centers and 60 among forwards right now, and it’s probably only going to get worse from here on out.

His past playoff performance is the only thing that comes anywhere near justifying his contract, but it also looks at a much smaller sample size and it’s not something I think we should expect him to replicate going forward.

Kane is a horse that has been beaten to death, but I’ve yet to see one clear, concise argument that shows why he is worth anywhere near his new cap hit. He is the only forward making at least $7M that has never scored 60 points. His contract is by far the worst of the bunch and that’s saying something.

 

[spintops]

I care about winning now, but if I feel like there’s a 1% chance to win now and a 0% chance to win in 5 years with these contracts, versus a 0% chance to win now and a 10% chance to win in 5 years without these contracts, then I’ll take the 0% chance to win now if it grants me a 10% chance to win in 5 years. I feel like these contracts completely mortgage our future for a lottery ticket of a shot at winning today even if we were to acquire a Tavares or Seguin level player.

I also believe that Vlasic, Kane, and Couture are all overpaid with how they are performing now. I am using Corsicahockey’s player ratings model because while I understand it is certainly flawed, it takes a lot more into account than just goals and points. I will check GAR/WAR for these guys to see just how accurate these rankings are.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Vlasic 44th in the NHL amongst defensemen - 20th amongst LD. Vlasic also ranked 44th amongst NHL defensemen in points. Vlasic carries the 10th highest cap hit among defenseman in the NHL and the 3rd highest cap hit among left handed defenseman in the NHL. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Vlasic is anywhere near a top-10 NHL defenseman today and/or anywhere near a top-3 left handed defenseman.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings model ranks Evander Kane 20th among left wingers and 60th among forwards. Kane ranked 9th in goals and 22nd in points among left wingers; he ranked 33rd in goals among forwards and 78th in points among forwards. Kane carries the 4th highest cap hit among left handed wingers and the 26th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me some evidence that shows Kane is anywhere near a top-5 NHL left winger and/or anywhere near a top-30 NHL forwards.

Corsicahockey’s player ratings rank Logan Couture 23rd among centers and 67th among forwards. Couture finished 9th in goals among centers and 32nd in points among centers; he finished 17th in goals among forwards and 60th in points among forwards. Couture will carry the 12th highest cap hit among centers and the 18th highest cap hit among forwards. I challenge you to show me evidence that Couture is anywhere near a top-15 NHL Center or a top-20 NHL forward.

Wow this is blindly looking at a (heavily) flawed stat and basing your entire view of the sharks using it. You know who ranks just below Logan Couture on corsicahockey ? John Tavares. How much did you want to offer him ? Seems like a terrible deal paying the 82nd ranked forward 10+ million! Brent Burns was the #1 Dman in hockey this season? Seesh

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Wow this is blindly looking at a (heavily) flawed stat and basing your entire view of the sharks using it. You know who ranks just below Logan Couture on corsicahockey ? John Tavares. How much did you want to offer him ? Seems like a terrible deal paying the 82nd ranked forward 10+ million! Brent Burns was the #1 Dman in hockey this season? Seesh

Did I not literally say that it was a flawed stat? I’m bringing up points and goals as well. Those are flawed too. Every single statistic is flawed without a plethora of context and even then, statistics will never be able to completely determine the value of a single player. However, I’m trying to find evidence of how Logan Couture provides value anywhere near on par with his cap hit, and I can’t find it. I tried looking at a few different statistical models.

Tavares was also what, top-15 in goals and points this season?

 

[spintops]

Did I not literally say that it was a flawed stat? I’m bringing up points and goals as well. Those are flawed too. Every single statistic is flawed without a plethora of context and even then, statistics will never be able to completely determine the value of a single player. However, I’m trying to find evidence of how Logan Couture provides value anywhere near on par with his cap hit, and I can’t find it. I tried looking at a few different statistical models.

Tavares was also what, top-15 in goals and points this season?

Didn't mean to come across rude, but you are literally using the metric that rates them the worst. You can see the flaw in saying pay Tavares anything, then undercutting Couture using a stat that rates him higher then Tavares right?

I totally agree that Couture, Kane, Vlasic were all probably somewhat overpaid. It would be nice if Wilson could have signed them all for a 1 million or more less per year // less term. But I don't think it's as simple as "he should have signed Couture for 7M per season". It's closer to a world of sign Couture for 8 mil per, or let him test FA with a chance of not signing him at all. Some fans probably would have let him walk, but Wilson wasn't letting any of our core pieces go.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Didn't mean to come across rude, but you are literally using the metric that rates them the worst. You can see the flaw in saying pay Tavares anything, then undercutting Couture using a stat that rates him higher then Tavares right?

I totally agree that Couture, Kane, Vlasic were all probably somewhat overpaid. It would be nice if Wilson could have signed them all for a 1 million or more less per year // less term. But I don't think it's as simple as "he should have signed Couture for 7M per season". It's closer to a world of sign Couture for 8 mil per, or let him test FA with a chance of not signing him at all. Some fans probably would have let him walk, but Wilson wasn't letting any of our core pieces go.

It’s certainly not the best metric. No argument there. But again, I already conceded it was flawed; it’s just the first all-encompassing “player effectiveness” model that I could find. If you want to talk goals and/or assists over the past few seasons, 5V5 and/or all strengths, you’re sure as hell not going to be able to say that Couture’s stats are in line with the contract he just got.

If somebody said Tavares wasn’t worth it, I would quickly bring up the fact that he is 5th in points among all players and 3rd in points among centers since 2010-2011. Also 4th in goals among all players and 2nd in goals among centers. Then I would move to his 2 Hart Trophy nominations, the effect he has on the scoring rates of players like Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson, and Kyle Okposo. I would conclude by saying that I know full and well that $15.9M is an overpayment for him, but that overpaying is okay when our team is in a position where we have no other method of acquiring a franchise #1C, Tavares clearly fits that bill, etc.

When it comes to Couture, I can understand the argument from Maladroit that he is not easy to replace, he is very important for our team to succeed, we will be lost without him, etc. But I am not seeing any sort of solid argument that he is not overpaid right now, or that his contract isn’t likely to be an albatross down the road. I would say the same for Burns but also would say that he totally isn’t overpaid right now. If his performance continues to decline, then he will be overpaid. And his contract will probably be an albatross in 4-5 years.

However, with Kane and Vlasic, I no longer believe those players are essential to our success to the point where they are worthy of an overpayment even if I believed the Sharks had a legitimate chance at being a contender for next year and the years that follow. Kane is just not an effective enough player when healthy and firing to take on the risk of his injuries and inconsistent performances at $7M for 7 years. Vlasic was at his peak for sure but the player he was over the past two seasons is worth $5M at most and he will probably just continue to decline from this point on.

 

[spintops]

It’s certainly not the best metric. No argument there. But again, I already conceded it was flawed; it’s just the first all-encompassing “player effectiveness” model that I could find. If you want to talk goals and/or assists over the past few seasons, 5V5 and/or all strengths, you’re sure as hell not going to be able to say that Couture’s stats are in line with the contract he just got.

If somebody said Tavares wasn’t worth it, I would quickly bring up the fact that he is 5th in points among all players and 3rd in points among centers since 2010-2011. Also 4th in goals among all players and 2nd in goals among centers. Then I would move to his 2 Hart Trophy nominations, the effect he has on the scoring rates of players like Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson, and Kyle Okposo. I would conclude by saying that I know full and well that $15.9M is an overpayment for him, but that overpaying is okay when our team is in a position where we have no other method of acquiring a franchise #1C, Tavares clearly fits that bill, etc.

When it comes to Couture, I can understand the argument from Maladroit that he is not easy to replace, he is very important for our team to succeed, we will be lost without him, etc. But I am not seeing any sort of solid argument that he is not overpaid right now, or that his contract isn’t likely to be an albatross down the road. I would say the same for Burns but also would say that he totally isn’t overpaid right now. If his performance continues to decline, then he will be overpaid. And his contract will probably be an albatross in 4-5 years.

However, with Kane and Vlasic, I no longer believe those players are essential to our success to the point where they are worthy of an overpayment even if I believed the Sharks had a legitimate chance at being a contender for next year and the years that follow. Kane is just not an effective enough player when healthy and firing to take on the risk of his injuries and inconsistent performances at $7M for 7 years. Vlasic was at his peak for sure but the player he was over the past two seasons is worth $5M at most and he will probably just continue to decline from this point on.

I would pay Tavares as well, was just using a extreme example of the metrics downfalls. I also agree that all 3 guys are probably overpaid, and the contracts can be really bad if they don't age well. On the other hand, hopefully the cap keeps rising and 8M to a guy in a few years is more like 4-5M now.

I think aren't giving Vlasic enough credit at all. Sure he probably had a down year, but you could argue he was are most important player for the last 5 years (People are going to jump on me and say Burns, probably during our SCF run, but for a solid 5 year stretch). If you let Vlasic walk the entire defense that played pretty well for the most part crumbles. Best case scenario we pick up the "top" FA De Haan and deploy him with Braun ? Vlasic does so much for the other pairs by getting totally screwed on his deployment. And during his good years he thrived shutting down the NHL elites no matter how he was used. Take him off that line with or without adding someone and you have DeMelo facing top lines, Burns starting in the defensive zone, etc. Maybe we would be tanking at that point.

Kane is overpaid. The sharks struggle to score 5v5. Kane is top 15 in the NHL at scoring goals 5v5. The sharks see him filling a huge area of need, simple.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Did I not literally say that it was a flawed stat? I’m bringing up points and goals as well. Those are flawed too. Every single statistic is flawed without a plethora of context and even then, statistics will never be able to completely determine the value of a single player. However, I’m trying to find evidence of how Logan Couture provides value anywhere near on par with his cap hit, and I can’t find it. I tried looking at a few different statistical models.

Tavares was also what, top-15 in goals and points this season?

While you said it was a flawed stat you then proceeded to use it to explain why these contracts are too much. I usually really like your opinions and line of thinking when it comes to hockey. What I don’t respect is when you make arguments where you cherrypick the data to fit the narrative you are pushing. If Tavares is below couture then it makes your point almost worthless.

What I got from your post is that Vlasic is a #2 D, Kane is a top line LW, and Couture is a top line C. Those are not guys you just toss aside for nothing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I would pay Tavares as well, was just using a extreme example of the metrics downfalls. I also agree that all 3 guys are probably overpaid, and the contracts can be really bad if they don't age well. On the other hand, hopefully the cap keeps rising and 8M to a guy in a few years is more like 4-5M now.

I think aren't giving Vlasic enough credit at all. Sure he probably had a down year, but you could argue he was are most important player for the last 5 years (People are going to jump on me and say Burns, probably during our SCF run, but for a solid 5 year stretch). If you let Vlasic walk the entire defense that played pretty well for the most part crumbles. Best case scenario we pick up the "top" FA De Haan and deploy him with Braun ? Vlasic does so much for the other pairs by getting totally screwed on his deployment. And during his good years he thrived shutting down the NHL elites no matter how he was used. Take him off that line with or without adding someone and you have DeMelo facing top lines, Burns starting in the defensive zone, etc. Maybe we would be tanking at that point.

Kane is overpaid. The sharks struggle to score 5v5. Kane is top 15 in the NHL at scoring goals 5v5. The sharks see him filling a huge area of need, simple.

I’m not going to jump on you for saying that about Vlasic. I think that Thornton, Pavelski, Marleau, and Burns have been better than him in every 5 year run you can pick out since I’ve been watching, but I realize that Vlasic’s name should be in that conversation, and I know just what he did for this team. He was f***ing amazing. But the key word there is was. Over the past two seasons, he hasn’t been that player anymore. It wasn’t just one year of minor decline; it’s been 2 years of significant decline that began promptly after the World Cup.

Over the past two years, Vlasic-Braun have been out scored 34-37 and 45-50 at 5V5. That’s not just one season; this is two seasons of Vlasic not being the player that he once was. The defense would certainly take a hit if we were to trade Vlasic, but it wouldn’t be that bad if we traded him and acquired a player like Jake Gardiner and it would certainly help us out more in the long term.

If you don’t disagree that these guys are overpaid, then the argument really isn’t there. My primary argument was with the idea that Couture, Vlasic, and Kane are not overpaid right now. I don’t think Kane will have that big of an effect on our 5V5 scoring but that’s a different topic for a different day.

While you said it was a flawed stat you then proceeded to use it to explain why these contracts are too much. I usually really like your opinions and line of thinking when it comes to hockey. What I don’t respect is when you make arguments where you cherrypick the data to fit the narrative you are pushing. If Tavares is below couture then it makes your point almost worthless.

What I got from your post is that Vlasic is a #2 D, Kane is a top line LW, and Couture is a top line C. Those are not guys you just toss aside for nothing.

Dude, I am not saying that GAR or player rankings model are the be all end all for where these guys rank in the NHL. I’m saying it was one other thing I took a quick look at to see where these guys rank after taking things besides goals, points, and assists into consideration. I can’t find anything that justify the idea that Couture, Vlasic, and Kane are not overpaid right now relative to their peers.

They aren’t guys you toss away for nothing, and I’m not suggesting we toss them away for nothing. Not signing Kane would have got us a 1st. Trading Couture and Vlasic with one year left could have got us a pretty serious haul if they weren’t willing to sign more reasonable extensions.

 

[Sharksrule04]

These guys are also in decline age. Their decline will likely go hand in hand with the decline of their cap hit percentage so the deals might look pretty similar in years 3-4 when they’ve only begun to decline but by years 5-6, the contracts will probably look hideous.

I would totally agree that Vlasic was underpaid in the past, but I also don’t care. I don’t think the steal of a deal that he was on in the past is any sort of justification for the overpayment he was just given. I’m still not seeing any sort of evidence as to why he deserves to be anywhere near the 10th highest paid defenseman in the NHL or the 3rd highest paid LHD. If you would argue that Vlasic deserves to be paid that much, then please do argue and explain why.

Couture did finish 9th in goals among centers, but he also finished 29th in shots among centers and 123rd in individual expected goals for for forwards. His shooting percentage was a whopping 16.7% when he’s shot 12.5% over his career; had he shot at his career shooting percentage over the 204 shots he took this year, he would have scored 26 goals which would have him ranked 28th among centers and 58th among forwardsf. That’s probably more in line with his real abilities as a goal scorer where he ranks 19th among centers and 43rd among forwards over the past 3 seasons.

And, on top of all of that, goal scoring is his best trait! If we’re being generous, Couture is one of the 15 best goal scoring centers and one of the 30 best goal scoring forwards in the NHL. But, what about his defensive work and his playmaking? What about his ability to drive possession? Those traits are nowhere near those ranks among centers and forwards in the NHL. A fair ranking for Couture would probably be around 30 among centers and 60 among forwards right now, and it’s probably only going to get worse from here on out.

His past playoff performance is the only thing that comes anywhere near justifying his contract, but it also looks at a much smaller sample size and it’s not something I think we should expect him to replicate going forward.

Kane is a horse that has been beaten to death, but I’ve yet to see one clear, concise argument that shows why he is worth anywhere near his new cap hit. He is the only forward making at least $7M that has never scored 60 points. His contract is by far the worst of the bunch and that’s saying something.

I can't provide stats to why Vlasic deserves exactly 7M per year but I watch every game and I still think he is among the elite shutdown d-men in the game. Yes Braun has declined which may be hurting that pairing but Vlasic is always facing the best offensive players in the league and he's still doing a great job at it. He is a plus player, great defensively and contributes a good 30 or so points with 7-10 goals. I think that level of production in both ends of the rink cannot be replaced so he's worth paying 7M for him. I also don't think he'll decline much further because his game is based on reads, positioning and having a great stick. He isn't much of an injury risk.

I understand all the arguments made against Kane, but I do think he has another gear that will come out playing with the Sharks. I have a feeling DW believes the same. Maybe paying him based on speculation is a poor move and will backfire but I think Kane has a monster year and will produce like a player making 7M for a good 3-5 years. Those last couple years could hurt if he is plagued with injuries but I don't think you let him go completely over that possibility and over a difference of .5M in worth.

For Couture I think he is a top 30 center and in the playoffs I'd argue he's top 5-10. I once again could understand the argument that he's overpaid by .5M and maybe a year or 2 too long but as I stated above I think it's more important to retain these higher end players if you have dreams of competing and winning a cup. DW will target an elite level player and having these guys are necessary to compliment that superstar. Having 2-3 guys making .5M than they should be isn't going to kill the team and it's better to pay guys of this caliber that extra money than waste it on a Melker Karlsson level player.