Rene Lecavalier Division Semi Finals - Salt Lake Golden Eagles (2) vs Orillia Terriers (3)

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Salt Lake Golden Eagles (2)

"Stubborn labor, self-sacrifice, selfish devotion to a favored activity, tireless perfection of athletic perfectionalism..."

Coach: Viktor Tikhonov

Captain: Mats Sundin
Alternate: Adam Oates
Alternate: Red Kelly

John Tonelli - Adam Oates (A) - Bernie Geoffrion
Patrick Marleau - Mats Sundin (C) - Jarome Iginla
Jack Adams - Rick MacLeish - Ken Hodge
Dennis Hull - Craig MacTavish - Jamie Langenbrunner

Extra: Pit Martin, Harry Smith

Moose Johnson - Red Kelly (A)
Leo Reise, Jr. - Alex Pietrangelo
George McNamara - Howard McNamara

Extra: Frantisek Tikal

Gump Worsley
Al Rollins

PP1: Sundin - Oates - Iginla - Kelly - Geoffrion
PP2: Marleau - MacLeish - Hodge - Johnson - Pietrangelo

PK1: MacTavish - Langenbrunner - Johnson - Pietrangelo
PK2: Oates - MacLeish - Reise Jr - G. McNamara

*Geoffrion will play the point on the 1st PP.

Estimated Ice Time Forwards - Tikhonov will have final say

Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
Geoffrion	14	5		19
Oates	13	4	2	19
Sundin	14	4		18
Iginla	14	4		18
Marleau	14	3		17
MacLeish	10	3	3	16
Tonelli	14		1	15
Hodge	11	3		14
MacTavish	8		4	12
Adams	11			11
Langenbrunner	7		4	11
Hull	8			8
	138	26	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Estimated Ice Time Defence - Tikhonov will have final say

Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
Kelly	19	5		24
Johnson	18	2	4	24
Pietrangelo	15	2	4	21
Reise Jr	16		3	19
G. McNamara	12		3	15
H. McNamara	12			12
	92	9	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

VS

'

Orillia Terriers (3)


Barry Trotz

Dean Prentice - Jonathan Toews "C" - Gordie Howe
Anatoli Firsov - Dave Keon "A" - Bernie Morris
Jack Marshall - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko
Camille Henry - David Krejci - Bobby Schmautz

Wade Redden - Drew Doughty
Kevin Lowe "A" - Brent Burns
Keith Yandle - Jack Portland

Johnny Bower
Glenn Resch

Spares
Walt Buswell, D
Jaroslav Jirik, LW/RW
Buddy O'Connor, C

PP1 - Camille Henry - Bernie Morris - Gordie Howe - Brent Burns - Keith Yandle
PP2 - Anatoli Firsov - Jason Spezza - Vladimir Tarasenko - Drew Doughty - Wade Redden

PK1 - Dave Keon - Anatoli Firsov - Kevin Lowe - Jack Portland
PK2 - Jonathan Toews - Gordie Howe - Wade Redden - Drew Doughty
​

Click to read more...

 

[Habsfan18]

This I feel will be a great series. Good luck to @Dreakmur. Van and I are looking forward to this series!

I’ll start off by saying that Gordie Howe (RW) and Anatoli Firsov (LW) are the two best at their positions in this series. There is no way around that. However, that being said, I believe Salt Lake has the greater overall depth, superior offensive firepower, and a superior blueline.

Another early observation: Are Jason Spezza and Vladimir Tarasenko really bottom 6 players on a Barry Trotz coached team? I’m not sure I see the fit there at all.

Anyways, the name of the game is to score more, and to keep the opposing team from doing so. We feel Salt Lake’s offense will do that, and our defense will do its job to prevent Orillia from doing so. Sounds simple but with the way the lineups are constructed that’s how we see it.

Gordie is Gordie, no way around that. He will do his thing, but as for having Toews and Prentice as his linemates I’m not sure if that is a recipe for success as an overall line. Howe can create on his own, but he will be asked to do a lot there. Adam Oates has proven historically time and time again that he makes his linemates better and a fair share of players had career years playing with him. I don’t believe Toews as a 1st line center will make as much of an offensive mark and have an effect on his linemates in a way that Adam Oates will.

Bernie Geoffrion, meanwhile, has an ideal C for his style of play with an elite playmaker in Adam Oates. That is a pairing that in our minds will be very effective offensively. I see no reason for Adam Oates not to be able to create offensive magic with Boom Boom, just as he did with Brett Hull in St. Louis for example. John Tonelli is a beast in the corners, and he’ll do the dirty work to allow Boom Boom and Oates to do their thing.

Sundin and Iginla are a pair that we think stacks up quite well with any two-some group on a 2nd line in the draft. Keon and Firsov are very nice as well, but we feel Sundin and Iginla are superior as a pairing in this series and the reason is two-fold. For one, we believe they will provide more overall offense as a pair and two, their puck possession abilities and cycling down low will be quite the handful, making them the more difficult pairing to play against. Bernie Morris certainly brings some offense as well though, I will say. But we still like our 2nd line here. Patrick Marleau is another big body on the line who brings solid two-way play, speed, and a natural touch around the net. We initially had him on the 1st line, but we decided he was a much better fit on this line with Sundin and Iggy.

In keeping with the theme of overall offensive depth and firepower, having Ken Hodge, Rick MacLeish and Jack Adams as our 3rd line will hopefully provide some additional scoring. Both teams have offensive minded 3rd lines, but the difference is our trio fits a Tikhonov club more than Orillia’s trio fits a Trotz club IMO. I get that it’s not a typical 3rd line in the normal sense of the word, but Spezza and Tarasenko in a bottom 6 role on a Trotz club just seems odd to me. Hodge in particular has to be one of the stronger offensive 3rd liners in the draft and along with Geoffrion and Iginla they pose a pretty formidable trio at RW.

The 4th line will do its job well and will bring solid defensive play. Don’t sleep on the fact that Jamie Langenbrunner has historically shown an ability for coming up huge in clutch situations, and Dennis Hull brings a rocket from the wing that he will be sure to utilize.

Now, defense is where we feel Salt Lake really separates itself from Orillia. Van and I built what we feel is the best pairing in the draft in Moose Johnson and Red Kelly. That is an elite pairing in a 40 team draft and probably still a damn good one in a 20 team one. Wade Redden and Drew Doughty just cannot compare. Wade Redden especially, as a 1st pairing D, sticks out like a sore thumb here. I can foresee him having a very difficult time with the offensive firepower of the Golden Eagles. Drew is solid, but can he make up for the fact that his defensive parter is playing in a situation that has him in way over his head?

The 2nd pairings are much closer than those 1st pairings. Lowe and Burns are a nice pairing, but Reise Jr and Pietrangelo brings 3 2nd-team all-star selections to the table and together should bring more solid overall defensive ability than the Orillia pair. Pietrangelo is quite underrated offensively and will be able to make his mark on the scoreboard, although he doesn’t bring the level of offense that Burns does.

Our 3rd pairing is just a fun, physical and defensively capable pairing of brothers that obviously brings a level of chemistry that will be tough to match.

Our goaltending is about average in this draft. Edge to Bower, but I don’t think Bower > Worsley is a big enough step down for Salt Lake to the point that it would actually be the deciding factor in the series. Al Rollins has won some big games and has come up clutch as well, so Tikhonov always had the option of putting him in if need be. But I don’t see Gump being a problem.

Tikhonov’s “high flying” style of offensive hockey should suit this Salt Lake team quite nicely. We like Tikhonov with his roster over Trotz with his roster in this series.

Now, for special teams. We feel we have a 1st unit PP that can compete with any team in the draft. We stacked up our “star power” to form what is obviously our most dangerous PP unit. Kelly and Geoffrion on the point. Sundin, Oates and Iginla up front. That 5 man unit will play the majority of the PP time and should be able to make teams pay. Our second group obviously isn’t as dangerous, but Marleau’s hand-eye coordination and his ability to battle for rebounds can be a factor, and Ken Hodge will hopefully provide some secondary PP offense. Moose Johnson is on the point as well.

The PK obviously isn’t our strong suit and understandably took some heat initially but we improved it with the addition of a specialist in Craig MacTavish and putting Oates in there as well. Langenbrunner and MacLeish aren’t among the best in the draft but they can still do their job. Alex Pietrangelo is possibly the best PKer of his generation so that has to count for something. He’ll be an asset.

I should also make note that Van and I don’t foresee Salt Lake being a highly penalized club, so the PK wasn’t a main concern for us. It clearly isn’t among the top groups, but with our style of play and personnel, we think the pairs we have can do the job when called upon which hopefully shouldn’t be often.

So, I’ll stress again what I mentioned above. Orillia had Gordie, but we feel we have more overall depth, greater offensive firepower, and the superior blueline. Orillia’s starting goaltender also isn’t noticeably superior in the sense that it will make or break this series. All in all Van and I feel and hope this will be a recipe for success for Salt Lake to come out on top.

 

[Dreakmur]

This I feel will be a great series. Good luck to @Dreakmur. Van and I are looking forward to this series!

Good luck to you as well. Let's start to dig into this post!

I’ll start off by saying that Gordie Howe (RW) and Anatoli Firsov (LW) are the two best at their positions in this series. There is no way around that. However, that being said, I believe Salt Lake has the greater overall depth, superior offensive firepower, and a superior blueline.

Howe and Firsov are obvious. Your blueline is obvious. I think I also have the best goalie, though the margin isn't large. I also think I have the best center in Dave Keon.

Offensive firepower, I think, is a clear edge for Orillia. Let's break it down more as we go.

The two BIG advantages are Orillia's 1st line and Salt Lake's 1st pair. Everything else looks rather close at first glance.

Another early observation: Are Jason Spezza and Vladimir Tarasenko really bottom 6 players on a Barry Trotz coached team? I’m not sure I see the fit there at all.

Trotz is a demanding coach, but he's not stubborn. There's a reason, despite his strict military-esque style, he's very popular among his players. He's described as a "noted consensus builder, soliciting the leadership group for opinions". As I said when I picked him, he's one of the only guys who can be called both a discipline coach AND a player coach.

Gordie is Gordie, no way around that. He will do his thing, but as for having Toews and Prentice as his linemates I’m not sure if that is a recipe for success as an overall line. Howe can create on his own, but he will be asked to do a lot there. Adam Oates has proven historically time and time again that he makes his linemates better and a fair share of players had career years playing with him. I don’t believe Toews as a 1st line center will make as much of an offensive mark and have an effect on his linemates in a way that Adam Oates will.

I've gone over the even strength scoring numbers for these lines. Orillia has a very significant edge in that department.

Toews will have an impact that you can't measure in goals and assists. He doesn't just make his line mates better, he makes his whole team better. That's why he was viewed as a top-5 player in the world for just about his entire prime.

Adding up all 3 players' 7 season ESv.2 scores:
Orillia = 270.3
Salt Lake = 227.9

That doesn't even account for the intangibles, which are widely in favour of Orillia's unit.

Bernie Geoffrion, meanwhile, has an ideal C for his style of play with an elite playmaker in Adam Oates. That is a pairing that in our minds will be very effective offensively. I see no reason for Adam Oates not to be able to create offensive magic with Boom Boom, just as he did with Brett Hull in St. Louis for example. John Tonelli is a beast in the corners, and he’ll do the dirty work to allow Boom Boom and Oates to do their thing.

Geoffrion is a good offensive RW. He is what he is, but I've just never been a huge fan of one-dimensional scorers. He's also a guy who really relies on the PP to rack up points.

Sundin and Iginla are a pair that we think stacks up quite well with any two-some group on a 2nd line in the draft. Keon and Firsov are very nice as well, but we feel Sundin and Iginla are superior as a pairing in this series and the reason is two-fold. For one, we believe they will provide more overall offense as a pair and two, their puck possession abilities and cycling down low will be quite the handful, making them the more difficult pairing to play against. Bernie Morris certainly brings some offense as well though, I will say. But we still like our 2nd line here. Patrick Marleau is another big body on the line who brings solid two-way play, speed, and a natural touch around the net. We initially had him on the 1st line, but we decided he was a much better fit on this line with Sundin and Iggy.

This Marleau-Sundin-Iginla line is better than the Tonelli-Oates-Geoffrion line. I think it's one of the really good second lines in the draft. Iginla is by far your best scorer at even strength, and I think he's your best forward.

Orillia has 2 of their first 3 drafted forwards on their second line, so it's obviously going to be strong too. This line is a little bit trickier to measure offensively. I'm quite confident that Firsov is a better offensive player than Valeri Kharlamov.... but that still doesn't get us anywhere concrete. I have arbitrarily give Kharlamov a score of 90 in the past, so I think that's about where I'll place Firsov as well. Not everyone likes my 1912-1926 consolidated scoring data, but I'm quite confident it's a good representation of that era's scoring abilities. Using that data, Morris comes away with a score of 85.9. Not knowing exactly how their scoring it distributed, we can't assume they were particularly reliant on PP scoring, nor can we assume they were particularly good at ES, so their scores will just stay the same,

Orillia = 247.9
Salt Lake = 241.7

Offensively, these two lines are quite similar. Once again, however, that doesn't measure the defensive advantage created by the Keon/Firsov duo.

I'll come back to this again later, but this should at least start some discussion.

 

[Habsfan18]

Good luck to you as well. Let's start to dig into this post!

Cheers! I had a feeling we would be matched up in the playoffs.

Offensive firepower, I think, is a clear edge for Orillia. Let's break it down more as we go.

The two BIG advantages are Orillia's 1st line and Salt Lake's 1st pair. Everything else looks rather close at first glance.

You have the best player on our 1st lines, but I definitely don’t see yours having the superior overall trio especially in terms of an ideal fit. I mentioned it previously, but in my mind Oates and Geoffrion are made for each other as line mates much more-so than Toews and Howe are as a pair. Howe can create offense on his own as I mentioned, because he’s Gordie Howe, but I stand firm in my belief that he will be asked to do a lot here. He is certainly capable, but will it be enough over the course of the series?

Adam Oates makes his line mates better and Boom Boom is an ideal winger for him. Boom Boom in turn will make Oates a better and more effective player. Toews has historically made his wingers better as well, but do their numbers show for it to the extent that Oates did? Keep in mind many players had career seasons playing with Oates. His effect on his linemates was obvious and the offensive totals show it. Will Gordie in turn make Toews a better player? Will Toews be able to rise up to Gordie’s level offensively as his center iceman? Or would Gordie benefit more from stylistically, a different type of center iceman?

Trotz is a demanding coach, but he's not stubborn. There's a reason, despite his strict military-esque style, he's very popular among his players. He's described as a "noted consensus builder, soliciting the leadership group for opinions". As I said when I picked him, he's one of the only guys who can be called both a discipline coach AND a player coach.

I still think it’s an odd look for 2/3 of a 3rd line on a Trotz team. He can be very popular with his players, but that still doesn’t answer the question from a hockey standpoint if that’s what Trotz would want from his 3rd line. I know Salt Lake doesn’t have a traditional checking 3rd line either, but I think MacLeish and Adams absolutely make a stronger case for ATD 3rd liners than Spezza and Tarasenko do. Just my opinion though.

I've gone over the even strength scoring numbers for these lines. Orillia has a very significant edge in that department.

Toews will have an impact that you can't measure in goals and assists. He doesn't just make his line mates better, he makes his whole team better. That's why he was viewed as a top-5 player in the world for just about his entire prime.

Adding up all 3 players' 7 season ESv.2 scores:
Orillia = 270.3
Salt Lake = 227.9

That doesn't even account for the intangibles, which are widely in favour of Orillia's unit.

I’m not a big fan of using numbers like that when comparing entire lines because the numbers of 1 player could be the major difference and that shouldn’t be the sole deciding factor on a line being superior overall. Of course your numbers will look better there, you have Gordie Howe.

But just because the numbers you provided look good in Orillia’s favor, it doesn’t necessarily mean in this playoff matchup your 1st line as a trio is superior to our trio. I look at those numbers but then I look at the fit stylistically to both units trio’s and on ours I see an elite playmaking center who historically has put up big numbers (him and his linemates, especially his primary running mate) offensively playing with a big time goal scoring winger with a booming shot who feeds off said playmaking center. The fit is essentially perfect, IMO. Add John Tonelli who although clearly isn’t Gordie Howe, is also a beast in the corners in his own right and can do the needed dirty work for the line.

But I agree that the intangibles are obviously strong with Toews and Howe. I can’t debate that. But my question for Orillia would be will your center icemen of Toews/Keon/Spezza help provide and create enough offense for your wingers? Like I said, Howe won’t need to rely too much on Toews, but is it still the ideal fit to get the best out of Gordie?

Geoffrion is a good offensive RW. He is what he is, but I've just never been a huge fan of one-dimensional scorers. He's also a guy who really relies on the PP to rack up points.

But keep in mind Adam Oates has a history of playing with one-dimensional scorers. Like I states before, I see no reason why he can’t do for Boom Boom what he did for Brett Hull in St. Louis.

This Marleau-Sundin-Iginla line is better than the Tonelli-Oates-Geoffrion line. I think it's one of the really good second lines in the draft. Iginla is by far your best scorer at even strength, and I think he's your best forward.

The thought behind Salt Lake’s top 2 lines was creating 1A and 1B C/RW duos with glue guys/third wheels as the LW’s. We planned and executed the Geoffrion-Oates duo, and we set ours sights on Sundin and Iginla to create a formidable 1B duo. As I touched on, I think their puck possessions skills and cycling ability will make them very tough to play against.

If we match up our 2nd lines vs each other, I actually think that’s a really solid matchup. Sundin/Iginla vs Keon/Firsov. That has to be one of the better 2nd line matchups in this thing. Bernie Morris provides some nice offense as well, but I think Patrick Marleau’s style will compliment Sundin and Iginla quite well. So as trio’s I like both lines.

Orillia has 2 of their first 3 drafted forwards on their second line, so it's obviously going to be strong too. This line is a little bit trickier to measure offensively. I'm quite confident that Firsov is a better offensive player than Valeri Kharlamov.... but that still doesn't get us anywhere concrete. I have arbitrarily give Kharlamov a score of 90 in the past, so I think that's about where I'll place Firsov as well. Not everyone likes my 1912-1926 consolidated scoring data, but I'm quite confident it's a good representation of that era's scoring abilities. Using that data, Morris comes away with a score of 85.9. Not knowing exactly how their scoring it distributed, we can't assume they were particularly reliant on PP scoring, nor can we assume they were particularly good at ES, so their scores will just stay the same,

Orillia = 247.9
Salt Lake = 241.7

Offensively, these two lines are quite similar. Once again, however, that doesn't measure the defensive advantage created by the Keon/Firsov duo.

I'll come back to this again later, but this should at least start some discussion.

Defensive advantage goes to Keon/Firsov for sure, but Sundin-Iginla will be a handful to handle. In doing so, will that limit the offense your line will produce?

 

[Dreakmur]

You have the best player on our 1st lines, but I definitely don’t see yours having the superior overall trio especially in terms of an ideal fit. I mentioned it previously, but in my mind Oates and Geoffrion are made for each other as line mates much more-so than Toews and Howe are as a pair. Howe can create offense on his own as I mentioned, because he’s Gordie Howe, but I stand firm in my belief that he will be asked to do a lot here. He is certainly capable, but will it be enough over the course of the series?

You say he'll be asked to do a lot, but with two line mates so adept at playing a grinding two-way game, he'll actually have to do less. The whole point is to get Howe out of the corners and into skilled positions rather than grinder positions as much as possible.

Gordie Howe always talked about the reason for the Production Line's success was that all three guys could play offense, play defense, and grind it out. He had his most success with a grinding glue-guy center in Sid Abel.

Most importantly, you can claim Howe has to do all the scoring, but Prentice (74.4) and Toews (79.9) produce more at ES than Tonelli (62.9) and Oates (83.9).

Adam Oates makes his line mates better and Boom Boom is an ideal winger for him. Boom Boom in turn will make Oates a better and more effective player. Toews has historically made his wingers better as well, but do their numbers show for it to the extent that Oates did? Keep in mind many players had career seasons playing with Oates. His effect on his linemates was obvious and the offensive totals show it. Will Gordie in turn make Toews a better player? Will Toews be able to rise up to Gordie’s level offensively as his center iceman? Or would Gordie benefit more from stylistically, a different type of center iceman?

Adam Oates makes a certain part of Geoffrion's game better. Goal scoring is great, but as much as many guys scored lots of goals with Oates, none of them won Stanley Cups....

Toews' total game will take the trench-work away from Howe, and that allows his to do more offensively. Toews' style of play and leadership guided teams to championships.

I still think it’s an odd look for 2/3 of a 3rd line on a Trotz team. He can be very popular with his players, but that still doesn’t answer the question from a hockey standpoint if that’s what Trotz would want from his 3rd line. I know Salt Lake doesn’t have a traditional checking 3rd line either, but I think MacLeish and Adams absolutely make a stronger case for ATD 3rd liners than Spezza and Tarasenko do. Just my opinion though.

I've said it a million times, the bottom 6 should provide things that the top 6 might lack. Do you think my top 6 lacked defensive play? If Trotz needed to use players in a defensive situation, he has Toews and Keon. If he needs offensive guy, Spezza is the better option.

I’m not a big fan of using numbers like that when comparing entire lines because the numbers of 1 player could be the major difference and that shouldn’t be the sole deciding factor on a line being superior overall. Of course your numbers will look better there, you have Gordie Howe.

As I showed above, Prentice+Toews > Tonelli+Oates at even strength. Yes, Gordie Howe is a beast, but it's not just him.

But I agree that the intangibles are obviously strong with Toews and Howe. I can’t debate that. But my question for Orillia would be will your center icemen of Toews/Keon/Spezza help provide and create enough offense for your wingers? Like I said, Howe won’t need to rely too much on Toews, but is it still the ideal fit to get the best out of Gordie?

At even strength, Toews+Keon+Spezza (227.9) are equal to Oates+Sundin+MacLeish (230.)

Gordie Howe is very used to being the best player on his line. Neither Oates nor Geoffrion are.

But keep in mind Adam Oates has a history of playing with one-dimensional scorers. Like I states before, I see no reason why he can’t do for Boom Boom what he did for Brett Hull in St. Louis.[/qupte]

Howe has a history of playing with complimentary centers.

 

[VanIslander]

Defensively, Spezza is lackadaisical (dangerous against Salt Lake centers), Henry is famously small and weak (exposed if against the powerful Salt Lake RWers) and that Orilla blueline?! Redden on the top pairing? Yandle pinching and caught up ice? Burns uneven without the puck? Trotz will have fits, Broda overloaded unlike his HOF blueline in Toronto and Toews, Keon given the Herculean task of covering for the defensive lapses by the team's skaters.

 

[Habsfan18]

You say he'll be asked to do a lot, but with two line mates so adept at playing a grinding two-way game, he'll actually have to do less. The whole point is to get Howe out of the corners and into skilled positions rather than grinder positions as much as possible.

What I mean by asked to do a lot, I’m speaking in terms of him having to be relied on heavily for creating offense in comparison to Geoffrion who has Oates as his centermen to help make it easy for him.

Let’s not ignore the fact that Gordie’s line will likely be matched up against Moose Johnson and Red Kelly, an elite defensive pairing.

Gordie Howe always talked about the reason for the Production Line's success was that all three guys could play offense, play defense, and grind it out. He had his most success with a grinding glue-guy center in Sid Abel.

Sid Abel also had goal finishes of 1, 3, 7, 11. And assist finishes of 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 10.

Obviously those numbers are helped by the fact that he played with Howe, but I’m not sure I see Toews as being capable of the same offensive effectiveness with Howe. Voters will decide of course, but we see differently here.

Most importantly, you can claim Howe has to do all the scoring, but Prentice (74.4) and Toews (79.9) produce more at ES than Tonelli (62.9) and Oates (83.9).

We can quote those numbers all we want, but I don’t know how many people are expecting much in terms of 1st line level offense from Toews and Prentice. Just as Van and I admittedly aren’t expecting much offense from John Tonelli. It’s not the role we are asking him to play there. If he provides secondary scoring, great. But he has a clear role on the line and it should be obvious. I won’t sit here and try to convince voters that he is something that he’s not.

Adam Oates makes a certain part of Geoffrion's game better. Goal scoring is great, but as much as many guys scored lots of goals with Oates, none of them won Stanley Cups....

Toews' total game will take the trench-work away from Howe, and that allows his to do more offensively. Toews' style of play and leadership guided teams to championships.

That’s a fair point, and Toews certainly has leadership/winning intangibles. I won’t deny that. But Toews having specific leadership and two-way intangibles over Adam Oates doesn’t necessarily give Orillia an obvious advantage over Salt Lake offensively, in my mind. I’ve said from the beginning that the name of the game is to score more goals, and a team can bring all the intangibles in the world but if the opposing team scores more goals..that’s a wrap. I just see Oates and Geoffrion as a more dangerous offensive pairing than what Toews and Howe can bring as a pair. That has been my stance. Strictly speaking offensively, I think our first line can leave a bigger mark. It will be up to the voters to decide if the intangibles of your top unit can limit the offense of what I feel our line will bring.

Something else to keep in mind, our 1st line will likely be matching up against Wade Redden and Drew Doughty, right? Is Wade Redden not going to be noticeably exposed there?

For comparison sake, if we match top units for top units:

Gordie’s line goes up against..

Red Kelly and Moose Johnson.

Oates and Boom Boom go up against..

Wade Redden and Drew Doughty..

That has to count for something. There is no comparison there whatsoever. I’m sure we can agree on that.

I've said it a million times, the bottom 6 should provide things that the top 6 might lack. Do you think my top 6 lacked defensive play? If Trotz needed to use players in a defensive situation, he has Toews and Keon. If he needs offensive guy, Spezza is the better option.

Fair enough. They definitely bring more offense than defense, but I don’t know how much offense you can expect out of them. I feel like Ken Hodge, Rick MacLeish and Jack Adams will bring more to the table in terms of bottom 6 scoring.

As I showed above, Prentice+Toews > Tonelli+Oates at even strength. Yes, Gordie Howe is a beast, but it's not just him.

At even strength, Toews+Keon+Spezza (227.9) are equal to Oates+Sundin+MacLeish (230.)

Gordie Howe is very used to being the best player on his line. Neither Oates nor Geoffrion are.

Let’s also discuss the fact that defense will play a big part of this series as well. And your group of forwards have to deal with a superior backend compared to the group that ours have to deal with. Ours have the likes of Wade Redden, Brent Burns, Drew Doughty and Kevin Lowe to deal with. Yours have to deal with Red Kelly, Moose Johnson, Alex Pietrangelo and Leo Reise Jr. I like our situation better.

It may come down to what voters think is a better situation offensively:

For example:

Howe/Toews/Prentice vs Kelly and Johnson
Firsov/Keon/Morris vs Pietrangelo and Reise Jr

vs

Geoffrion/Oates/Tonelli vs Redden and Doughty
Sundin/Iginla/Marleau vs Lowe and Burns

Hodge/MacLeish/Adams vs Spezza/Tarasenko/Marshall

In terms of offense, I guess it will depend on how voters view the ability of our offensive players to create offensive opportunities against those they are matched up against.

 

[Dreakmur]

What I mean by asked to do a lot, I’m speaking in terms of him having to be relied on heavily for creating offense in comparison to Geoffrion who has Oates as his centermen to help make it easy for him.

As I said already, Prentice+Toews create more than Tonelli+Oates.

Let’s not ignore the fact that Gordie’s line will likely be matched up against Moose Johnson and Red Kelly, an elite defensive pairing.

That's what my hope is, that you'll match up Kelly against Howe. The more I can keep Kelly on defense, the less he can be involved in the offense.

Sid Abel also had goal finishes of 1, 3, 7, 11. And assist finishes of 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 10.

Sid Abel's 7 season ESvs.2 is 82.3 playing with Howe and Ted Lindsay. Toews is 79.9 playing with.... not Howe and Lindsay...

Obviously those numbers are helped by the fact that he played with Howe, but I’m not sure I see Toews as being capable of the same offensive effectiveness with Howe. Voters will decide of course, but we see differently here.

Is he capable? Well, it's a pretty common opinion that Toews could have been a consistent 100+ point guy if he chose to play one-dimensional hockey.

We can quote those numbers all we want, but I don’t know how many people are expecting much in terms of 1st line level offense from Toews and Prentice. Just as Van and I admittedly aren’t expecting much offense from John Tonelli. It’s not the role we are asking him to play there. If he provides secondary scoring, great. But he has a clear role on the line and it should be obvious. I won’t sit here and try to convince voters that he is something that he’s not.

The numbers are what they are. Prentice and Toews are excellent even strength scorers. Oates and Geoffrion scored a large portion of their points on the PP, which isn't relevant when comparing how lines are going to match up at ES.

Strange that it's ok for Tonelli to suck offensive "because he has a role"... but Toews' doesn't get the same credit.

That’s a fair point, and Toews certainly has leadership/winning intangibles. I won’t deny that. But Toews having specific leadership and two-way intangibles over Adam Oates doesn’t necessarily give Orillia an obvious advantage over Salt Lake offensively, in my mind. I’ve said from the beginning that the name of the game is to score more goals, and a team can bring all the intangibles in the world but if the opposing team scores more goals..that’s a wrap. I just see Oates and Geoffrion as a more dangerous offensive pairing than what Toews and Howe can bring as a pair. That has been my stance. Strictly speaking offensively, I think our first line can leave a bigger mark. It will be up to the voters to decide if the intangibles of your top unit can limit the offense of what I feel our line will bring.

Even if you look only at offense, the Orillia line is vastly superior. 270.9 vs 227.9 is a massive difference.

Something else to keep in mind, our 1st line will likely be matching up against Wade Redden and Drew Doughty, right? Is Wade Redden not going to be noticeably exposed there?

As I said early, that's Salt Lake's largest advantage.

For comparison sake, if we match top units for top units:

Gordie’s line goes up against..

Red Kelly and Moose Johnson.

Oates and Boom Boom go up against..

Wade Redden and Drew Doughty..

That has to count for something. There is no comparison there whatsoever. I’m sure we can agree on that.

That's a big part of this series. Is the Howe line going to be more effective against the Kelly pair than the Oates line will be against the Doughty pair?

The size and aggressiveness of the Prentice-Toews-Howe line could mean a lot of hard, grinding, defensive minutes for your best offensive weapon in Red Kelly. I like that matchup.

Fair enough. They definitely bring more offense than defense, but I don’t know how much offense you can expect out of them. I feel like Ken Hodge, Rick MacLeish and Jack Adams will bring more to the table in terms of bottom 6 scoring.

They are actually about equal in ES scoring. MacLeish is pretty bad in that regard.

Let’s also discuss the fact that defense will play a big part of this series as well. And your group of forwards have to deal with a superior backend compared to the group that ours have to deal with. Ours have the likes of Wade Redden, Brent Burns, Drew Doughty and Kevin Lowe to deal with. Yours have to deal with Red Kelly, Moose Johnson, Alex Pietrangelo and Leo Reise Jr. I like our situation better.

Yes, your top pair is better. Part of that can be mitigated by the elite defensive play of my top 2 centers. They'll lave a bit less workload with so much help on the backcheck and in the corners. Still, the top pair is a big advantage for Salt Lake.

Second pair, I'm not sure which is better.

 

[Habsfan18]

As I said already, Prentice+Toews create more than Tonelli+Oates.

Based on the fancy stat numbers you provide, sure. But for this series call me old fashioned..in terms of pure good ‘ol hockey, I like pairing the elite playmaker with the elite goalscorer and adding in the glue guy to do the dirty work to complete the trio. That has been my stance from the beginning.

That's what my hope is, that you'll match up Kelly against Howe. The more I can keep Kelly on defense, the less he can be involved in the offense.

Red Kelly can be equally effective at both ends of the ice. We obviously hope he will provide as much offense as possible, but if for this series his primary role is to help limit the scoring of your best offensive line. Then maybe that’s a trade off we like as well. But Kelly will still get his offensive chances, I’m sure of it.

Is he capable? Well, it's a pretty common opinion that Toews could have been a consistent 100+ point guy if he chose to play one-dimensional hockey.

Umm, is it? I guess I don’t share this common opinion.

The numbers are what they are. Prentice and Toews are excellent even strength scorers. Oates and Geoffrion scored a large portion of their points on the PP, which isn't relevant when comparing how lines are going to match up at ES.

If you don’t think that Adam Oates and Bernie Geoffrion will be an offensively dangerous duo at even strength than I don’t think anything I can say will change your mind. In the ATD of course we use real historical data and stats, but we also must look at the chemistry and fit of specific fantasy combinations and decide how we feel they’ll succeed in an ATD setting. I’m of the opinion our 1st line will be dangerous offensively.

Strange that it's ok for Tonelli to suck offensive "because he has a role"... but Toews' doesn't get the same credit.

The difference is Tonelli isn’t tasked with being the 1st line C and a primary playmaker to Gordie Howe on his wing. Tonelli is tasked with being a third-wheel glue guy to help create space for Oates and Geoffrion to be the primary offensive players on the line. Their supposed roles are certainly different.

Even if you look only at offense, the Orillia line is vastly superior. 270.9 vs 227.9 is a massive difference.

Again, looking at it that way sure. But I touched on that above. What those offensive numbers don’t show are the results of Gordie Howe playing with Jonathan Toews as his C and Bernie Geoffrion playing with Adam Oates as his C.

As I said early, that's Salt Lake's largest advantage.

That's a big part of this series. Is the Howe line going to be more effective against the Kelly pair than the Oates line will be against the Doughty pair?

The size and aggressiveness of the Prentice-Toews-Howe line could mean a lot of hard, grinding, defensive minutes for your best offensive weapon in Red Kelly. I like that matchup.

Like I said, that hypothetical tradeoff could work both ways. You could like it because it may limit Red Kelly’s offensive effectiveness. We could like it because matching up against Kelly (and Johnson) may limit Gordie Howe’s overall offensive effectiveness.

Looking at the rosters, who will be relied on to provide more offense for the success of their team? Red Kelly or Gordie Howe? Let’s remember that Red Kelly will have plenty of offensive opportunities in PP situations as well.

But even if Tikhonov does plan on matching top unit vs top unit, I still like Red Kelly’s ability to create offense, especially in transition.

Yes, your top pair is better. Part of that can be mitigated by the elite defensive play of my top 2 centers. They'll lave a bit less workload with so much help on the backcheck and in the corners. Still, the top pair is a big advantage for Salt Lake.

Second pair, I'm not sure which is better.

I don’t think the gap is as clear to one side in the 2nd pairings as it is in the 1st, but I still like Pietrangelo and Leo Reise Jr. Leo is a positionally sound, physical D that was was twice a 2nd team-all star. Alex Pietrangelo, himself a 2nd team all-star, recently captained a Stanley Cup winning club all the while playing Conn Smythe level hockey. Give me that pair.

 

[VanIslander]

Tonelli was a prolific playoff scorer at even strength (as i detail below).

But Prentice wasn't. Prentice once was 3rd in team scoring with 5 goals, 5 assists in a finals run. One other time he was 3rd in team scoring in a semifinal run with 2 goals, 5 assists. No other significant scoring. Of course, he played on bad teams. Though he himself didn't provide heroics (unlike Tonelli).

Now, for details.

Tonelli, like Tikkanen, turned up the offense when needed in the playoffs.

• Tonelli as an 18 year old tied the team lead in playoff goals with 7 on a finals run in the WHA.
  
• Tonelli had 7 even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier & Bossy) in the Isles first Stanley Cup. He made a great cross ice pass in OT on the even strength cup-clinching goal.
  
• Tonelli had 5 even strength playoff goals (the same as Trottier) and 2 game winners in the second cup postseason.
  
• Tonelli had 5 more even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier) and another game winner in the third cup victory. In fact, his heroics kept the dynasty alive: trailing 1-3 in the 3rd period of the deciding game in an early round, Tonelli set up a goal with 5 minutes remaining, then he scored the tying goal AND the series-deciding OT goal (at even strength).
  
• Tonelli had 7 even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier, 2nd only to Bossy) and 2 more game winners in the fourth cup year.
  
• Tonelli was MVP of the 1984 Canada Cup with 9 points, making a beautiful pass in OT of the semifinal on Bossy's game-winning goal (at even strength).
  
• Tonelli then went to Calgary where he scored 6 even strength playoff goals and a game winner in a finals run.

TONELLI WAS CLEARLY A TALENTED SCORER AT EVEN STRENGTH as he proved time and again when it mattered most: in the playoffs.

The fact that the Selke finalist usually was a role player in the regular season doing the grunt work in the corners and in checking doesn't mean he won't score AT EVEN STRENGTH in the playoffs!

Time to put down the regular season even strength analysis and consider other measures (like the above evidence of his even strength playoff scoring).

 

[Dreakmur]

Tonelli was a prolific playoff scorer at even strength (as i detail below).

But Prentice wasn't. Prentice once was 3rd in team scoring with 5 goals, 5 assists in a finals run. One other time he was 3rd in team scoring in a semifinal run with 2 goals, 5 assists. No other significant scoring. Of course, he played on bad teams. Though he himself didn't provide heroics (unlike Tonelli).

Now, for details.

Tonelli, like Tikkanen, turned up the offense when needed in the playoffs.

• Tonelli as an 18 year old tied the team lead in playoff goals with 7 on a finals run in the WHA.
  
• Tonelli had 7 even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier & Bossy) in the Isles first Stanley Cup. He made a great cross ice pass in OT on the even strength cup-clinching goal.
  
• Tonelli had 5 even strength playoff goals (the same as Trottier) and 2 game winners in the second cup postseason.
  
• Tonelli had 5 more even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier) and another game winner in the third cup victory. In fact, his heroics kept the dynasty alive: trailing 1-3 in the 3rd period of the deciding game in an early round, Tonelli set up a goal with 5 minutes remaining, then he scored the tying goal AND the series-deciding OT goal (at even strength).
  
• Tonelli had 7 even strength playoff goals (more than Trottier, 2nd only to Bossy) and 2 more game winners in the fourth cup year.
  
• Tonelli was MVP of the 1984 Canada Cup with 9 points, making a beautiful pass in OT of the semifinal on Bossy's game-winning goal (at even strength).
  
• Tonelli then went to Calgary where he scored 6 even strength playoff goals and a game winner in a finals run.

TONELLI WAS CLEARLY A TALENTED SCORER AT EVEN STRENGTH as he proved time and again when it mattered most: in the playoffs.

The fact that the Selke finalist usually was a role player in the regular season doing the grunt work in the corners and in checking doesn't mean he won't score AT EVEN STRENGTH in the playoffs!

Time to put down the regular season even strength analysis and consider other measures (like the above evidence of his even strength playoff scoring).

When your team is good, and you get to play a lot of games, you tend to get more chances to score.

Tonelli was good in the play-off, but let’s not pretend his scoring doesn’t go down in the playoffs, just like most other guys. 0.24 ES goals per game in the regular season and 0.20 ES goals per game in the regular season.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Thank you guys for presenting an old school ATD debate.

This is a great match up and I thoroughly enjoy reading the back and forth.

 

[Dreakmur]

Based on the fancy stat numbers you provide, sure. But for this series call me old fashioned..in terms of pure good ‘ol hockey, I like pairing the elite playmaker with the elite goalscorer and adding in the glue guy to do the dirty work to complete the trio. That has been my stance from the beginning.

I don't disagree that every line needs certain aspects to be effective. A good line needs to be able to produce offense. A good line needs to be able to retrieve the puck when they don't have it. A good line needs to be able to defend effectively.

I don't think that have one guy to do each job is the most effective way to accomplish that. You call it old fashioned, but it's really just predictable. When more players can do more things, it allows them to play in a much more natural way.

The Tonelli-Oates-Geoffrion line, as an example, has a puck-winner, a playmaker, and a goal-scorer. That seems like a great line, since it has a lot of different parts. The problem is that each player is so on-dimensional in their role that it will be incredibly simple to stifle.

Oates is the only playmaker, so pressure him early, which forces the puck off his stick. The other two guys are such weak playmakers, Oates likely never gets the puck back.

Geoffrion is the only goal scorer, so if you cheat towards him - or even resort to an all-out shadow - and you seriously limit that line's effectiveness. Neither Oates nor Tonelli are big threats, so you can comfortably cheat off them.

If the puck goes into the right corner in the offensive zone, who forechecks? I know you want Tonelli in there, but he's coming from the far side, which means I'll have more time to simply break out with no pressure. The closest guy is Geoffrion, and in most systems, the F1 attacks the puck, but that creates two issues. First he's not a good forecheck, nor puck-winner, nor a playmaker if he actually gets possession. Second, he's your only real scoring threat, so you don't want him behind the goal line, from where he cannot score.

Red Kelly can be equally effective at both ends of the ice. We obviously hope he will provide as much offense as possible, but if for this series his primary role is to help limit the scoring of your best offensive line. Then maybe that’s a trade off we like as well. But Kelly will still get his offensive chances, I’m sure of it.

Yes, Kelly is good at both ends of the ice. He just can't be at both ends at once. Every second we can stick him in his own end is a win for us. Not only does that take up time from him providing offense, but it wears him down physically.

If you don’t think that Adam Oates and Bernie Geoffrion will be an offensively dangerous duo at even strength than I don’t think anything I can say will change your mind. In the ATD of course we use real historical data and stats, but we also must look at the chemistry and fit of specific fantasy combinations and decide how we feel they’ll succeed in an ATD setting. I’m of the opinion our 1st line will be dangerous offensively.

It's not that they aren't good... it's just how good. They both scored a lot on the PP. You agree with that?

The chemistry with Oates ad Geoffrion will be good, but it's just so predictable. Wish such an offensive plug on the other wing, it limits the effective offensive options.

The difference is Tonelli isn’t tasked with being the 1st line C and a primary playmaker to Gordie Howe on his wing. Tonelli is tasked with being a third-wheel glue guy to help create space for Oates and Geoffrion to be the primary offensive players on the line. Their supposed roles are certainly different.

This NHL2008 line up style of Scorer-Playmaker-Grinder is so out-dated.

Again, looking at it that way sure. But I touched on that above. What those offensive numbers don’t show are the results of Gordie Howe playing with Jonathan Toews as his C and Bernie Geoffrion playing with Adam Oates as his C.

I already showed that Toews' even strength scoring is essentially equal to Howe's real-life center.

Bernie Geoffrion played with Jean Beliveau. That's where his totals were amassed. Do you think he's do as well with Adam Oates?

Like I said, that hypothetical tradeoff could work both ways. You could like it because it may limit Red Kelly’s offensive effectiveness. We could like it because matching up against Kelly (and Johnson) may limit Gordie Howe’s overall offensive effectiveness.

Kelly is solid defensively, but not elite. He sure isn't "shut-down Howe" good.

Looking at the rosters, who will be relied on to provide more offense for the success of their team? Red Kelly or Gordie Howe? Let’s remember that Red Kelly will have plenty of offensive opportunities in PP situations as well.

But even if Tikhonov does plan on matching top unit vs top unit, I still like Red Kelly’s ability to create offense, especially in transition.

Did Tikhonov even match lines? I'm pretty sure all those Soviet guys just copied Tarasov's near-equal-ice line rolling, right?

 

[Habsfan18]

I don't disagree that every line needs certain aspects to be effective. A good line needs to be able to produce offense. A good line needs to be able to retrieve the puck when they don't have it. A good line needs to be able to defend effectively.

I don't think that have one guy to do each job is the most effective way to accomplish that. You call it old fashioned, but it's really just predictable. When more players can do more things, it allows them to play in a much more natural way.

The Tonelli-Oates-Geoffrion line, as an example, has a puck-winner, a playmaker, and a goal-scorer. That seems like a great line, since it has a lot of different parts. The problem is that each player is so on-dimensional in their role that it will be incredibly simple to stifle.

Oates is the only playmaker, so pressure him early, which forces the puck off his stick. The other two guys are such weak playmakers, Oates likely never gets the puck back.

Geoffrion is the only goal scorer, so if you cheat towards him - or even resort to an all-out shadow - and you seriously limit that line's effectiveness. Neither Oates nor Tonelli are big threats, so you can comfortably cheat off them.

If the puck goes into the right corner in the offensive zone, who forechecks? I know you want Tonelli in there, but he's coming from the far side, which means I'll have more time to simply break out with no pressure. The closest guy is Geoffrion, and in most systems, the F1 attacks the puck, but that creates two issues. First he's not a good forecheck, nor puck-winner, nor a playmaker if he actually gets possession. Second, he's your only real scoring threat, so you don't want him behind the goal line, from where he cannot score.

You can call it easy to stifle and predictable, but each player has proven historically to be very effective at their particular role on the line. Let’s not pretend as if they weren’t. So voters will have to be of the opinion that a defensive unit of Wade Redden, Drew Doughty, Brent Burns and Kevin Lowe have the proper ability to assist with doing so. And if in your mind, Howe/Toews/Prentice spend much of the time stiffling a predicable attack, keep in mind their offensive attack is then up against one of the best units in the draft in Red Kelly and Moose Johnson. Your top line will be relied on heavily to provide offense for your club. So you can talk down the Oates line all you want, but even if you stifle them as you seem to believe it will be so easy to do, you then have to capitalize on that offensively as well right? Because even if you take away much of the offensive effectiveness of our top line, it won’t matter if you’re not scoring either. Voters will have to agree that IF our top line is stifled, Howe/Toews/Prentice better take advantage of that and they are up a very reliable defense pairing. So we could see a situation where both top line units aren’t scoring as much as we would like.

It may sound like a simplistic formula, but puck-winner, playmaker, goal scorer has proven that ot can be a winning formula.

Listen, obviously your forwards are better defensively, but in this series you’re still going up against a club with a much stronger defense group in my mind. So voters will have to believe you’ll stifle the Salt Lake offensive attack AND come out on top offensively against our group of defensemen.

And remember that the whole game isn’t played with our top lines. We also have what we feel is a pretty damn solid 1B line that will play just as much even strength ice time as the Oates line. It is very much a 1A and 1B situation. So IF voters think you’ll be able to deal easily with that 1A line, you also have the Sundin-Iginla pairing to deal with, and then the 3rd line as well who will be relied on to bring offense. The Oates line isn’t the only line we are relying on for offense.

Yes, Kelly is good at both ends of the ice. He just can't be at both ends at once. Every second we can stick him in his own end is a win for us. Not only does that take up time from him providing offense, but it wears him down physically.

I could say the same for a guy like Gordie though. If he has to spend a lot of time playing defensive style hockey with Toews trying to stifle offensive-minded opponents, Salt Lake will view that as a win as well.

It's not that they aren't good... it's just how good. They both scored a lot on the PP. You agree with that?

I won’t deny that. It’s obvious. But you make it sound like they will be completely useless at even strength and I don’t think that’s fair nor accurate.

The chemistry with Oates ad Geoffrion will be good, but it's just so predictable. Wish such an offensive plug on the other wing, it limits the effective offensive options.

This NHL2008 line up style of Scorer-Playmaker-Grinder is so out-dated.

We’ve never tried to claim that the line is something that they aren’t. It’s plain as day what that lines intentions are. It still needs to be stopped and I certainly don’t think it will be as easy as you’re claiming it will be. But I can understand why in a debate you would try to make it seem that way.

I mean, Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have made a career out of the “predictable” goal scoring sniper and playmaker on a line formula. Theoretically that should be pretty simple to stop right? Easier said than done..

I already showed that Toews' even strength scoring is essentially equal to Howe's real-life center.

Bernie Geoffrion played with Jean Beliveau. That's where his totals were amassed. Do you think he's do as well with Adam Oates?

Adam Oates clearly isn’t Jean Beliveau. But a proven goal scoring winger is still paired up with a playmaker with the following assist finishes:

1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th

And I didn’t need fancy stats to show that.

Kelly is solid defensively, but not elite. He sure isn't "shut-down Howe" good.

He doesn’t need to shut him down completely, just limiting his effectiveness will be considered a win for Salt Lake. It’s Gordie Howe.

Did Tikhonov even match lines? I'm pretty sure all those Soviet guys just copied Tarasov's near-equal-ice line rolling, right?

Yeah, Van and I have always had the belief that Salt Lake will for the most part roll lines. I have just been assuming this entire time that the teams will match power on power, but maybe not.

 

[VanIslander]

Oates is a good checker.

He ain't no Weight, Thornton or Gretzky.

"... a gifted two-way center and one of the league's best at winning faceoffs"

From Boston Bruins Greatest Moments and Players by Stan Fischler.

 

[Dreakmur]

You can call it easy to stifle and predictable, but each player has proven historically to be very effective at their particular role on the line. Let’s not pretend as if they weren’t. So voters will have to be of the opinion that a defensive unit of Wade Redden, Drew Doughty, Brent Burns and Kevin Lowe have the proper ability to assist with doing so.

If anyone is going to shadow Geoffrion, it would be Frisov or Prentice. I think they would be very capable.

If anyone is going to quick-pressure Oates, it would be Keon or Toews. I think they would be very capable too.

And if in your mind, Howe/Toews/Prentice spend much of the time stiffling a predicable attack, keep in mind their offensive attack is then up against one of the best units in the draft in Red Kelly and Moose Johnson.

Those three are just going to play their game. They all played good defensive games while they scored, so they don't have to sacrifice one for the other.

Your top line will be relied on heavily to provide offense for your club.

With a second line of Firsov-Keon-Morris, I think I have quite enough scoring from that line.

So you can talk down the Oates line all you want, but even if you stifle them as you seem to believe it will be so easy to do, you then have to capitalize on that offensively as well right? Because even if you take away much of the offensive effectiveness of our top line, it won’t matter if you’re not scoring either. Voters will have to agree that IF our top line is stifled, Howe/Toews/Prentice better take advantage of that and they are up a very reliable defense pairing. So we could see a situation where both top line units aren’t scoring as much as we would like.

Oh definitely. Better competition makes scoring harder - that's no secret.

It may sound like a simplistic formula, but puck-winner, playmaker, goal scorer has proven that ot can be a winning formula.

Anything can be a winning formula. I just described some serious flaws. How do you counter those?

Listen, obviously your forwards are better defensively, but in this series you’re still going up against a club with a much stronger defense group in my mind. So voters will have to believe you’ll stifle the Salt Lake offensive attack AND come out on top offensively against our group of defensemen.

It's not just that they're better defensively. They're better offensively too, and they don't even rely on the predictable A to B to C plays.

And remember that the whole game isn’t played with our top lines. We also have what we feel is a pretty damn solid 1B line that will play just as much even strength ice time as the Oates line. It is very much a 1A and 1B situation. So IF voters think you’ll be able to deal easily with that 1A line, you also have the Sundin-Iginla pairing to deal with, and then the 3rd line as well who will be relied on to bring offense. The Oates line isn’t the only line we are relying on for offense.

I could say the same for a guy like Gordie though. If he has to spend a lot of time playing defensive style hockey with Toews trying to stifle offensive-minded opponents, Salt Lake will view that as a win as well.

As I said, they won't be "playing defensively". They re just going to play their regular style. They'll likely just have the puck so much more than the opponent - great face-offs and great puck retrieval.

I won’t deny that. It’s obvious. But you make it sound like they will be completely useless at even strength and I don’t think that’s fair nor accurate.

There's a big difference between me thinking my line is better and me thinking yours is useless.

We’ve never tried to claim that the line is something that they aren’t. It’s plain as day what that lines intentions are. It still needs to be stopped and I certainly don’t think it will be as easy as you’re claiming it will be. But I can understand why in a debate you would try to make it seem that way.

Easy to stop, no. Easier, yes.

I mean, Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have made a career out of the “predictable” goal scoring sniper and playmaker on a line formula. Theoretically that should be pretty simple to stop right? Easier said than done..

They were pretty consistently stopped in the play-offs, right? Pretty sure Kuznetsov replaced Backstrom by the time they won the Cup, right?

Yeah, Van and I have always had the belief that Salt Lake will for the most part roll lines. I have just been assuming this entire time that the teams will match power on power, but maybe not.

So if your coach is just rolling the next line out, isn't that ceding all desired match-ups to Orillia?

 

[Dreakmur]

Oates is a good checker.

He ain't no Weight, Thornton or Gretzky.

"... a gifted two-way center and one of the league's best at winning faceoffs"

From Boston Bruins Greatest Moments and Players by Stan Fischler.

As I said in the assassination thread, I think he's your best PKer.

 

[Habsfan18]

If anyone is going to shadow Geoffrion, it would be Frisov or Prentice. I think they would be very capable.

If anyone is going to quick-pressure Oates, it would be Keon or Toews. I think they would be very capable too.

But hasn’t much of this conversation been based on what one top line would do against the other? I guess I assumed Geoffrion’s line would be out against Gordie’s often enough. Perhaps I misunderstood.

Those three are just going to play their game. They all played good defensive games while they scored, so they don't have to sacrifice one for the other.

Well, I think they certainly would be sacrificing some offense if they are matched up against the Geoffrion line. An offensive-minded line with a premiere goal scorer like Geoffrion and a premiere playmaker like Oates won’t be easy to contain despite your feelings that it will be totally predictable and easy to stifle. So our offensive attacking style surely will have the Howe line on their heels (IMO) often enough, so based on that alone I feel like it should at least limit the offensive chances of that line.

Like I said previously, stopping a “predictable” playmaker-goal scorer duo sounds simple enough in theory...the execution is often not as simple as it sounds. If it were that simple, that (call it basic if you want) formula wouldn’t be so commonly used.

With a second line of Firsov-Keon-Morris, I think I have quite enough scoring from that line.

As do the Golden Eagles with a 1B line of Marleau-Sundin-Iginla who as I said, will be receiving just as much even strength ice time as the Oates line.

Oh definitely. Better competition makes scoring harder - that's no secret.

Indeed, which is why I’m very confident in our top 4 D over Orillia’s.

Anything can be a winning formula. I just described some serious flaws. How do you counter those?

I guess the flaws aren’t as big of a deal in our minds as they are in yours. You feel it will be a predictable attack that will be easy to contain, and I don’t believe it will be nearly as easy as you claim it to be.

Besides, we aren’t relying on the Oates line to be our only provider of even strength offense. IF, and that’s a big IF, they are “stifled” at ES we have the likes of Jarome Iginla, Mats Sundin, Ken Hodge, Jack Adams, Rick MacLeish, and Patrick Marleau who will be able to provide offense. Not to mention our best player, Red Kelly.

And let’s also remember that we stocked up on our 1st PP unit. If you stifle the Oates line at ES, you better sure as hell hope you can also do the same on the PP because we all know how much damage Geoffrion and Oates can do there.

It's not just that they're better defensively. They're better offensively too, and they don't even rely on the predictable A to B to C plays.

They’re “better” with the fancy stats because they have Gordie Howe.

Let’s look at the offensive weapons for Salt Lake and their top 10 finishes..

Bernie Geoffrion:

Goals - 1, 1, 3, 3, 5, 5, 8, 9
Assists - 6, 6, 6, 7, 10
Points - 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 7, 7

Adam Oates:

Assists - 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7
Points - 3, 3, 3, 7, 10, 10, 10

Jarome Iginla:

Goals - 1, 2, 3, 3
Points - 1, 3, 6, 8
Assists - 10

Mats Sundin:

Goals - 2, 8, 10
Points - 4, 7
Assists - 10

Ken Hodge:

Goals - 4, 4, 4
Assists - 4, 8
Points - 3, 4, 5

Rick MacLeish:

Goals - 3, 4
Points - 4, 4

Jack Adams:

Goals - 1, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 10
Assists - 2, 6, 7, 9, 9
Points - 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10

Moose Johnson’s scoring finishes:

3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 8, 10

And of course Red Kelly who finished in the top 10 of NHL scoring 3 times as a defenseman.

Let’s look now at Red Kelly relative to other NHL defenseman:

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5

Yes, you have Gordie Howe and can bring up the overall fancy stats. But as a whole, can your teams offense firepower compete with that? Remember, that was my initial stance. Overall offensive firepower.

As I said, they won't be "playing defensively". They re just going to play their regular style. They'll likely just have the puck so much more than the opponent - great face-offs and great puck retrieval.

I’m not sure that stifling our offensive attack will be as easy as you claim if they’re playing their “regular style”.

They were pretty consistently stopped in the play-offs, right? Pretty sure Kuznetsov replaced Backstrom by the time they won the Cup, right?

It’s obvious what I was getting at. You were saying the playmaker-sniper formula is a predictable one, and I simply gave an example of a duo that had proven and effective offensive chemistry for years.

So if your coach is just rolling the next line out, isn't that ceding all desired match-ups to Orillia?

Desired in your mind, perhaps. But I still like Salt Lake over Orillia when going power-on-power.

Remember, we have a 1A and 1B setup. So Tikhonov rolling those lines is more about him being confident in using both equally as offensive units.

 

[Dreakmur]

Moose Johnson’s scoring finishes:

3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 8, 10

So, of the 6 defensemen who regularly played in that 3 team split-league....

 

[Dreakmur]

But hasn’t much of this conversation been based on what one top line would do against the other? I guess I assumed Geoffrion’s line would be out against Gordie’s often enough. Perhaps I misunderstood.

Trotz has the option to load up a line of Firsov-Keon-Howe.

Well, I think they certainly would be sacrificing some offense if they are matched up against the Geoffrion line. An offensive-minded line with a premiere goal scorer like Geoffrion and a premiere playmaker like Oates won’t be easy to contain despite your feelings that it will be totally predictable and easy to stifle. So our offensive attacking style surely will have the Howe line on their heels (IMO) often enough, so based on that alone I feel like it should at least limit the offensive chances of that line.

Oh, no line is ever going to have 100%.

I view most things like face-offs. The best guys in the league will win about 60%. So, let's say Gordie Howe is the best puck-winner.... he's still not coming out of the corner 100% of the time, even against weak battlers.

Like I said previously, stopping a “predictable” playmaker-goal scorer duo sounds simple enough in theory...the execution is often not as simple as it sounds. If it were that simple, that (call it basic if you want) formula wouldn’t be so commonly used.

Who is the last Stanley Cup champion to employ that formation? 2002 Red Wings?

As do the Golden Eagles with a 1B line of Marleau-Sundin-Iginla who as I said, will be receiving just as much even strength ice time as the Oates line.

They should play more, since they're a better line.

And let’s also remember that we stocked up on our 1st PP unit. If you stifle the Oates line at ES, you better sure as hell hope you can also do the same on the PP because we all know how much damage Geoffrion and Oates can do there.

Your PP is very good. Quite a few guys are almost PP specialists, so obviously they'll do well here.

With Geoffrion on the point, though, you could fall victim to short-handed chances. My PKers are quite dangerous in that regard.

They’re “better” with the fancy stats because they have Gordie Howe.

The fancy stats showed that my LW/C combo has better ES scoring numbers than your LW/C combo. That has nothing to do with Howe.

Let’s look at the offensive weapons for Salt Lake and their top 10 finishes..

Top-10s are basically obsolete. They just don't accurately represent offensive ability.

Yes, you have Gordie Howe and can bring up the overall fancy stats. But as a whole, can your teams offense firepower compete with that? Remember, that was my initial stance. Overall offensive firepower.

You say fancy stats, but they're really just a better way to measure performance.

It’s obvious what I was getting at. You were saying the playmaker-sniper formula is a predictable one, and I simply gave an example of a duo that had proven and effective offensive chemistry for years.

When the result is repeated play-off failure, I'm not sure you've shown anything positive.

Desired in your mind, perhaps. But I still like Salt Lake over Orillia when going power-on-power.

Desired in Trotz's mind - he's the guy making the changes in game.

The main issue is that Tikhonov seems to be the kind of coach who just lets the other team dictate the match-ups.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Did Tikhonov even match lines? I'm pretty sure all those Soviet guys just copied Tarasov's near-equal-ice line rolling, right?

As far as I know, Tikhonov did not much lines - they were all supposed to be strong at both ends of the ice. It's been several years since I've watched the old Canada Cups, but I remember Mike Keenan basically got whatever matchups he wanted whenever he wanted.

 

[Habsfan18]

Who is the last Stanley Cup champion to employ that formation? 2002 Red Wings?

Isn’t this the ATD though? I mean, we draft players from as far back the late 1890’s and early 1900’s. We form opinions on players by what they did in their era, based on the over 100 years of professional hockey history. In an all-time sense, that setup has proven it can be a successful one.

Why should it matter, ATD-wise, that it hasn’t been prevalent on a top line of a recent Stanley Cup winner? Are we to assume these fantasy ATD games are being played in present-day NHL? And if so, has this been officially stated and I am just learning this now? I am genuinely curious.

Either way, I still think the line will be effective, and if they are limited, we have a 1B line we like just as much..who will play just as much. We’ll have to agree to disagree on the Oates line and we’ll leave it in the hands of the voters.

With Geoffrion on the point, though, you could fall victim to short-handed chances. My PKers are quite dangerous in that regard.

That has to be a chance we are willing to take though. It’s a potential risk with a potentially high reward obviously. Let’s face it, if you have a Boom Boom Geoffrion as one of your primary PP weapons, most anyone would put him on the point even taking that risk into account.

Top-10s are basically obsolete. They just don't accurately represent offensive ability.

I disagree completely. Top-10’s are an exact historical representation of who the primary offensive contributors were in every single season and era in hockey history. It certainly has to count for something. It doesn’t tell us everything, but it certainly gives us a good peek into who the best of the best were at that time.

I mean, it’s in the numbers. I showed the amount of top 10 finishes the main offensive contributors on the Golden Eagles have, and I feel that based on what they did in their era’s, it shows that overall the Golden Eagles have more offensive depth and overall firepower.

 

[Dreakmur]

Isn’t this the ATD though? I mean, we draft players from as far back the late 1890’s and early 1900’s. We form opinions on players by what they did in their era, based on the over 100 years of professional hockey history. In an all-time sense, that setup has proven it can be a successful one.

Why should it matter, ATD-wise, that it hasn’t been prevalent on a top line of a recent Stanley Cup winner? Are we to assume these fantasy ATD games are being played in present-day NHL? And if so, has this been officially stated and I am just learning this now? I am genuinely curious.

Either way, I still think the line will be effective, and if they are limited, we have a 1B line we like just as much..who will play just as much. We’ll have to agree to disagree on the Oates line and we’ll leave it in the hands of the voters.

The ATD isn't played in any era, or under any set of rules.

Sure, the playmaker-scorer duo is common, but if you don't have a useful third member of the line, it's too easy to zero in on certain players. Probably the only times that was truly successful was Tikkanen-Gretzky-Kurri and maybe Gillies-Trottier-Bossy, though I think Gillies might have been too skilled to count. That 2002 Red Wing team, I very generously counted Shanahan as a "grinder" when he was really a top-end scorer too.

That has to be a chance we are willing to take though. It’s a potential risk with a potentially high reward obviously. Let’s face it, if you have a Boom Boom Geoffrion as one of your primary PP weapons, most anyone would put him on the point even taking that risk into account.

Absolutely. Geoffrion is an excellent PP point man. He is exposed if the puck turns over, so teams with good counter-attacking PKers can take advantage of that.

I disagree completely. Top-10’s are an exact historical representation of who the primary offensive contributors were in every single season and era in hockey history. It certainly has to count for something. It doesn’t tell us everything, but it certainly gives us a good peek into who the best of the best were at that time.

I mean, it’s in the numbers. I showed the amount of top 10 finishes the main offensive contributors on the Golden Eagles have, and I feel that based on what they did in their era’s, it shows that overall the Golden Eagles have more offensive depth and overall firepower.

Top-1o finishes show where you placed on the leaderboard, but not how close you were to being the best. The number of teams and the number of players significantly impact that. Few teams and players mean a higher percentage of them land on the leaderboard.

I think it's much more important to know how close you were to the best than it is to know how many players were ahead of you. In the pre-modern NHL, there were often significant gaps between tiers of scoring.​

 

[Dreakmur]

As far as I know, Tikhonov did not much lines - they were all supposed to be strong at both ends of the ice. It's been several years since I've watched the old Canada Cups, but I remember Mike Keenan basically got whatever matchups he wanted whenever he wanted.

Yeah, I'm not sure what Tikhonov actually did. The only "innovation" that I have seen him credited with is rigorous training sessions, which he definitely just took from Tarasov.

If I'm being a bit blunt, he seems to have been little more than a dictator who inherited an already excellent program. Most of the tools he used to keep players in line aren't available in this setting.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The ATD isn't played in any era, or under any set of rules.

Agree for the most part. The one caveat is that the ATD is clearly played under rules that allow for 18 dressed skaters at a time - no way of getting around that one. But other than that, I try to the extent possible to see the ATD as a mix of different eras, including rules and style of play.

I think it's much more important to know how close you were to the best than it is to know how many players were ahead of you. In the pre-modern NHL, there were often significant gaps between tiers of scoring.

​

Yes, this is the entire reason percentage systems like VsX were created.