Rene Lecavalier Division Finals Guelph Platers (1) vs Elmira Jackals (2)

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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Their PP contributions do matter.... on the PP.

Thanks captain obvious.

The point being is that everything being dumped in the thread was ES only, and included a bunch of estimates.. and I think some of those numbers are not true indicators for a few reasons such as those I mentioned. Furthermore, the PP matters. More for top 6 than bottom 6, but powerplay time is a higher even time than ES so it isn't as easy as saying "more time is played at ES" either.

Or are we aiming to be even more reductionist in our comparisons now?

I'm much more interested in ES for 3rd and 4th liners here than 1st and 2nd. Exceptions would be instances like my team where some of my third liners move up for specialist roles on the PP. For 1st and 2nd liners who are enjoying PP time like they did in real life I think their combined VsX is a better indicator of their overall offensive ability in those roles.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Thanks captain obvious.

The point being is that everything being dumped in the thread was ES only, and included a bunch of estimates.. and I think some of those numbers are not true indicators for a few reasons such as those I mentioned. Furthermore, the PP matters. More for top 6 than bottom 6, but powerplay time is a higher even time than ES so it isn't as easy as saying "more time is played at ES" either.

Are we aiming to be even more reductionist in our comparisons now?

The PP does matter, but it's separate from ES.
 

VanIslander

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Jackals 3rd line features a real-life duo who scored 275 points in one season, setting franchise records in goals and assists that remain unbeaten over a quarter century later.


 

BraveCanadian

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You can calculate that using the same method. Figure out the PP benchmark for each season, and divide into it.

No need. It would obviously be flattering to my 1st line / PP since as I showed, our 1st line is better offensively overall (by VsX at least).
 

VanIslander

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Here are the 7 season ESvs.X scores.

Ovechkin-Oates-Hextall 96.0+83.9+79.3=259.2
Thompson-Apps-Smith 82.6+87.0+70=239.6
Stevens-Tavares-Rousseau 67.9+82.9+70.7=221.5

Elias-Bentley-Cook 79.6+83.3+104.4=267.3
Conacher-Kennedy-Gilbert 92.0+78.0+82.0=252
Holik-Lafontaine-Mogilny 70+75.7+78.7=224.4
Clear.

Plus look at defense. And goaltending. And the best faceoff artists in hockey (Bowman said Jarvis - the Jackals' 4th line pivot and pker - was the best since Kennedy, the Jackals' 2nd line center). This team was built to succeed.
 

BraveCanadian

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Jackals 3rd line features a real-life duo who scored 275 points in one season, setting franchise records in goals and assists that remain unbeaten over a quarter century later.

They were incredible in 92-93 but that was the mother of all seasons for offensive players throwing up a big peak, and they hit peaks that neither one came close to again.

Tavares is a 2 time Hart finalist and a better offensive player than Lafontaine over the 7 year prime we generally go by. They are otherwise quite similar in value I think.

Overall the lines are relatively close offensively with Holik and Rousseau being good two-way players, the centers being pretty good defensive players, and the remaining winger not really being much tw-ways. Actually, depending on how people rate Holik with no NHL track record, I think these lines are pretty close except that the Jackals 3rd line has zero physical presence while we have Kevin Stevens.

Lafontaine and Mogilny are no threat to anyone physically and I don't really know if Holik mixed it up at all. Stevens gives us a true power forward and while he has to balance out Rousseau in that regard, Tavares is another good sized body if nothing else.

We feature at least some players that can grind down the opposition and work for wins on each line.
 
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BraveCanadian

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I can completely understand how if you ignore one of my teams best weapons and where my top drafted player excels things would look better to you.

If you can manage to play a 7 game playoff series while getting pounded by the physical wingers we have going into the corners without taking a penalty then it may even work out.
 

BraveCanadian

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Quick look at the defense in this:

Pronovost - Shore vs Johnson - Park


First pairing for the Jackals is quite strong with Marcel Pronovost and Eddie Shore. I'll use the HOH list as short hand for these guys - they were 34th and 4th on the list. Our first pairing is also good but behind both with Johnson and Park being 41st and 11th on the HOH list.

I like our fit better. Johnson can play safer and Park can do his all around thing. For the Jackals both Pronovost and Shore liked to rush the puck and both were quite physical as well -- but there is only one puck. Pronovost had a lot of injury issues due his penchant for playing with physicality.. he'll be going into the corner against Hextall and Smith so I like that. Jean Pronovost was apparently a real digger in the corners as well on our right side. Shore was just plain nuts at times which should get us some nice time on the PP. In particular because Shore will be enjoying the company of Ovechkin, Stevens, and Tremblay on his side. I think the Johnson - Cook matchup is better for us since Johnson is a "tower of strength", more defensively biased, and has that legendary poke check. Cook is a monster, of course, but Johnson is a good matchup.

Having a peek at overpass' adjusted plus minus spreadsheet we have partial coverage for Pronovost's career including 2 of his AS seasons. From 1960 on, Pronovost is practically an even player with an adjusted plus minus of only 24 in quite heavy usage. Park has an adjusted +/- of 214. Unfortunately, Shore and Johnson don't have that data as far as I know.

This one has to be seen as an good advantage for the Jackals in a vacuum, however I do think we have a great bunch of wingers to matchup against them and I like our chances of wearing down Pronovost and drawing penalties against Shore with our physical wingers.


Mike Grant - Lutchenko vs Hap Day - Sylvio Mantha

All four of these players were up for voting at the end of the HOH defensemen project so I'll assume they are relatively close in value. Mantha made the list at 56 which gives him a bit of an edge. My read on my pair is that they are both able to move the puck well enough but biased somewhat towards defense. A steady pairing that won't get beaten easily and won't be hemmed in.

Grant is an early era star who I believe was known for his rushing, and Lutchenko was mobile and a strong defensive presence. A good traditional fit for each other.

Both are solid pairings but I'll call this one for the Platers based on the project that went into way more detail than I know on these guys.



Cy Wentworth - Rob Ramage vs Markov - Bubla

Wentworth is a "clean hitting" defensive defenseman and Ramage was a chippy two-way guy for much of his career. On our side Markov is a mobile thinking man's defenseman and powerplay quarterback - "The General" - while Bubla is also very mobile while adding in some physical grit and a great shot for the PP.

I don't know how to factor Bubla and Wentworth (who peaked as a second team allstar) in this context so I'll leave that to people who know them better.

I will say that we are happy to play against Ramage with all those penalty minutes he takes, and because over his career he was suprisingly not a very good defenseman at ES - which is presumably where he will be playing most of his time here. Ramage did not tilt the ice during his career outside of a couple of seasons vs. his off ice comparables. Ramage's AEV +/- is -38 for his career. By contrast, the underrated Markov almost always outperformed his team and has a career AEV+/- +123.
 

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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I won't have any more time before voting is up so here goes.

Why Guelph should win this series:

1) Home ice advantage + a big coaching advantage with Al Arbour

2) A better top line overall offensively (yes the PP matters even if you don't post one) + great physicality to even outmatch Cook. This should allow us to take advantage of our devastating PP by drawing penalties against short fuse players like Shore and Ramage, for example.

3) The best offensive player on every line of this matchup 1-3 (Ovechkin, Apps, Tavares), and I'm fairly confident the ES scoring from our 4th line as well (both 4th lines in this series are strong defensively). The 2nd and 3rd lines overall would really depend on the values estimated in for Smith and Holik.

4) We'll get more realistic production from our 3rd line since we have players there still getting some PP time as they did in real life. Hard to compare that with the Jackals since they have not given any special teams.

5) Physical wingers on each line to grind down our opponents - I think that overall our lines and pairings are constructed to gel really well compared to the Jackals who are lacking physicality on some lines completely, and who have some possible mismatches.

6) A solid and steady defense with no poor defensive players like Ramage to take advantage of, and upper level goaltending by Dryden to keep us close to the advantages the Jackals are relying on heavily in those areas.

I'd make more comparisons if our opponents even had PP and PK teams listed but suffice it to say I'm very confident that our PP is a huge differentiator in this series when combined with the physical play that we're able to generate without an over abundance of penalties on our side (primarily Ovechkin and Hextall, Stevens and Smith were more chippy).


Good luck to everyone in voting this round.
 
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VanIslander

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If you can manage to play a 7 game playoff series while getting pounded by the physical wingers we have going into the corners...
Bill Cook will not be pounded.

Bobby Holik and Bob Nystrom will pound! :)

Kennedy will check hard. Jiri Holik was excellent defensively.

Try to pound Bentley and Jarvis, as both made a career of eluding checks.
 

VanIslander

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The Jackals' 7th dman Pat "Boxcar" Egan will see ice time in the series.

The rugged rearguard is at least as good as the opposition's 5th, 6th dmen, Markov, Bubla.
 
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VanIslander

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I dunno.

Dreakmur said i draft "mediocre" teams. And despite EVERY one of my lines surprisingly having a better vs.x and a better 1D, and better face-off artists, and better goalie, Dreakmur again voted against a squad of mine. Go figure. TDMM of course being right behind him in support. They also made sure to make multiple posts each on the thread.
 
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Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
I dunno.

Dreakmur said i draft "mediocre" teams. And despite EVERY one of my lines surprisingly having a better vs.x and a better 1D, and better face-off artists, and better goalie, Dreakmur again voted against a squad of mine. Go figure. TDMM of course being right behind him in support. They also made sure to make multiple posts each on the thread.

Just because you vote in a personally vindictive manner doesn't mean everybody else does too.

It's no secret that I think you're a complete tool, but I always voted for the team that I think is better. If I think your team should win, I vote for your team.

@The Macho King feel free to release my votes... and may as well do the same for VI, since he's throwing accusations around.
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
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Just because you vote in a personally vindictive manner doesn't mean everybody else does too.

It's no secret that I think you're a complete tool,...
You are a man throwing clear venom today.

A complete tool?

I have never attacked individual character. I have disagreed with specific opinions.

Be hard on the problem, not the person.

I do not see the world as divided between them and us. I constantly hope different positions can be taken.

My last vote was for BOTH TDMM & Dreakmur's teams. Because they are great. That's the injustice i feel to have no votes my way, just PMs from Dreakmur: "Stop being mediocre". It cuts to the bone.
 

The Macho King

Back* to Back** World Champion
Jun 22, 2011
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People should stop telling me to release the votes just because there is a stupid pissing match going on.

We do not establish a criteria for voting, and the process is obviously one subject to subjectivity.
 
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Dreakmur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
You are a man throwing clear venom today.

A complete tool?

I’m done trying to tap-dance around you. The whole persecution complex gets old.

I have never attacked individual character. I have disagreed with specific opinions.

Yes, accusing people of voting dishonestly isn’t an attack on character... right...

Be hard on the problem, not the person.

The person has become the problem.

My last vote was for BOTH TDMM & Dreakmur's teams. Because they are great.

Let’s release the voting then. I assume you’re good with that?

That's the injustice i feel to have no votes my way, just PMs from Dreakmur: "Stop being mediocre". It cuts to the bone.

Just like always, you come here to make an accusation and then whine when you get confronted.

As for my PMs, if you would stop sending me random insanity, I wouldn’t respond... and then you would never get a message from me. I promise you that I have zero interest in having a private conversation with you.
 
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VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
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Sorry.

I don't understand the venom.

But I will comply. (I sent a PM today but that olive branch will be broken.)

I have no dug-in enemies in real life. This feels weird.
 

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