Why do you all think we're going to suck? Same defense as the year before last that performed very well. We're only missing ROR and Tarasenko really. We're also much faster, with Kap and Vrana. The change back to a legitimate defense structure is the biggest change. God, MacTavish literally trashed an entire year of our franchise.
I'm probably closer to your outlook than the 'this team is going to be a dumpster fire' outlook, but I think there is a pretty reasonable argument for believing that the issues were more than just the assistant coaches.
We weren't a good defensive team in 2021/22. We weren't nearly as bad as last year, but it was still an average to below average performance defensively. At 5 on 5, we were in the bottom third of the league in scoring chances against, high danger chances against, expected goals against, and shots against. We finished 18th in total goals against at 5 on 5 and 15th in goals against per 60 at 5 on 5. That included getting 38 starts worth of .919 goaltending from Husso and 37 starts of .901 goaltending from Binner. Husso went 25-7-6 while Binner went 18-4-4.
We also got an unbelievable offensive performance out of a lot of guys, including several who aren't here anymore. Tarasenko led the team in goals and points with 34 and 82. Barby had 26 goals and 60 points (both 5th on the team). Perron had 27 goals (4th) and 57 points (8th) in 67 games played. ROR didn't have a monster offensive year (21 goals and 58 points) but excelled in a very clear shutdown role.
That's 108 goals from 4 forwards that are no longer on the team and .919 goaltending through 38 starts from a goalie who is no longer on the team. Those contributions were extremely important in overcoming what was a middling defensive group. I've got a lot of faith in Hofer, but I will be very surprised if he puts in 35+ starts of top 5-10 NHL goaltending this season. I'm high on Vrana, but I don't see a 30+ goal AND 40+ assists season in him. I think Hayes is being underrated and could effectively replace ROR's production, but he won't be nearly as good defensively as ROR was in 2021/22. I don't see any of Blais/Kap/Sunny/Neighbours stepping into the roles/production that we got from Barby/Perron.
I think the forward group meets in the middle a bit, which could be enough for the team to be a 95-100 point team rather than a 109 point or 81 point team. Same with the goaltending. I also think it is reasonable to believe that the D will be better than last year and get back to the 2021/22 levels of performance. But that still wasn't a good defensive group that year. It was still a below average defensive group.
Special teams are a question mark too. In 2021/22, our PK was 84% in 2021/22 (5th) and the PP was 27% (2nd). That combo earned us a bunch of standings points and the coaches in charge of them are no longer here. They were awful last year. The PP was 19% (22nd) and the PK was 72% (30th). The coaches in charge of them are also not here anymore. I think it is fair to worry about special teams.
I tend to agree that a change in defensive structure will be very helpful. But there is no guarantee that it gets us back to 2021/22 levels and that team wasn't great defensively either. Given the roster changes everywhere else and the lack of experience from the new assistants, I think the pessimism is warranted.