Reevaluating the “terrible” 2012 draft class

[serp]

For some reason 2012 is also one of the best drafts the Stars had in recent memories until 2017 that is of course.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

I’m glad that Yakupov ended up a bust as it allowed us to get McDavid.

Sometimes God doesn’t give you what you want he gives you what you need.

 

[majormajor]

He was really good last year. 55.2 GF% 5v5 (2nd among Clb defensemen to Savard), 53.7 xGF% 5v5 (1st among Clb defensemen), 52.7 SCF% 5v5 (1st among Clb defensemen) and 24 5v5 points (one behind Werenski and tied with Jones), despite playing only 59 games. In fact, his 1.47 P/60 at 5v5 was actually 7th among all defensemen (after Gio, Rielly, Burns, Letang, Weber and Chabot), and he paced for 40 points with all but 1 point coming at ES. His on-ice shooting percentage suggests regression and he hasn't played that well before, but he was arguably better than Jones in the regular season.

Most of the crowd of people who follow Jackets D closely say that Murray was the Jackets best D-man last year.

Him being injured frequently of course factors into how you value him relative to draft position. But just strictly speaking about what he did on the ice last year, the guy was great. His vision and passing are as good as it gets.

I'm just struggling to find much objective info that points to him being #1 or top-pairing. He doesn't score, he doesn't 'push the pace' (impact possession or shots, but also doesn't get caved in).

I view him as a solid 2nd pairing defenseman, someone like Jonas Brodin maybe. Eat 20 or so minutes and make sure nothing bad happens, but won't make anything spectacular happen either.

Obviously, it's not like if you put Brodin or Murray on a first pairing the world falls apart and your team gets caved. We shoehorn players into labels like #2/#3 and I'm not sure how much of a difference there is between those, but ideally slotted, i'd say 2nd pairing.

If you asked me a year ago I wouldn't have flinched at the Brodin comparison. But after last year it's Spurgeon.

Here's one piece of objective info for you - Ryan Murray just scored 1.47 A/60 (assist rate). That was not only the highest rate in the league last year, it was the highest rate I can find going back ten years.

It was surely affected by shooting percentages, and it was only in 54 games - I bet at some point Karlsson had a stretch of 54 games at that scoring pace. But you don't get to that high of a level, even with everything random going in your favor, without a lot of talent.

Ryan Murray dreams of being prime Vlasic. Truly, kind of embarrassing that you’d even compare the two.

She didn't compare them as players. She compared the situation of being a high level D-man stuck in the lineup behind more offensive and big name D-men.

Kind of embarrassing you didn't notice.

I have yet to see a single other person than you claim that Ryan Murray is a #1D.

I'm not going to bother arguing over something so nebulous. Define it first. If you go by overall impact in the most recent season, Ryan Murray is in. If we go by the idea that you need several strong seasons on the top tier to merit being a #1D, well then Ryan Murray isn't a #1D, and plenty of other defensemen aren't #1D either, Morgan Rielly and Matt Dumba included.

 

[Juxtaposer]

She didn't compare them as players. She compared the situation of being a high level D-man stuck in the lineup behind more offensive and big name D-men.

Kind of embarrassing you didn't notice.



I'm not going to bother arguing over something so nebulous. Define it first. If you go by overall impact in the most recent season, Ryan Murray is in. If we go by the idea that you need several strong seasons on the top tier to merit being a #1D, well then Ryan Murray isn't a #1D, and plenty of other defensemen aren't #1D either, Morgan Rielly and Matt Dumba included.

Why would I pick up on that? The argument that Vlasic wasn’t a #1D was always based on his lack of offense and never on the idea that there were better defensemen ahead of him. From 2013 (last year of Boyle’s eliteness) to 2016, Vlasic was the clearly best D the Sharks had.

My definition of a #1D is someone that you feel comfortable leading your D core. If you took Jones off the Jackets and added your average #3-4D to the team, are you comfortable? In my view, the Jackets have a great situation going on. Jones: an elite, Norris caliber #1D; Werenski: a high octane, offensive-minded #2; and Murray: a strong two-way shutdown #3. Murray is in a good situation himself right now. If you took Jones away, you think that would remain?

You wanna argue that Murray played like a top-pairing D last year, that’s reasonable. I have yet to see a reasonable argument for Murray being a #1D. From Visqi, whom I’ve respected as a great poster for almost a decade, has said little else but “Ryan Murray is a #1D and if you don’t see it too bad, it’s the truth” on the subject. I think that deserves some questions.

 

[KyleDubasWonderKid]

Rielly is quite easily the best player. Burke's comments which were laughed at came true

 

[LeafsNation149]

Pretty homerish comment there. He might not even be the best defensemen, much less the best player from the draft.

Defenseman A: 342 GP, 56 goals, 94 assists for 150 points or .44 points per game. Goals per game? .16
Defenseman B: 470 GP, 51 goals, 192 points for 243 points or .52 points per game. Goals per game? .11

Defenseman A: 8.6 shot percentage
Defenseman B: 5.2 shot percentage

Defenseman A: + 34 career, 184 pims, 426 hits and 336 block shots
Defenseman B: -46 career, 103 PIMs, 407 hits and 635 block shots

Defenseman A had only 8 goals less than Defenseman B, while playing 50 games less.

This is such a bad comparison. You're comparing their career stats, when Rielly was on a horrendous Leafs team and Dumba wasn't even good enough to make the Wild.

Also, Rielly led Dmen in scoring with 20 goals. 8 goals in 50 games isn't as easy to score as you think for defencemen (Dumba's career high is 14). He could've hit it this season, but who can say he would have kept that pace.

 

[Viqsi]

Why would I pick up on that? The argument that Vlasic wasn’t a #1D was always based on his lack of offense and never on the idea that there were better defensemen ahead of him. From 2013 (last year of Boyle’s eliteness) to 2016, Vlasic was the clearly best D the Sharks had.

My definition of a #1D is someone that you feel comfortable leading your D core. If you took Jones off the Jackets and added your average #3-4D to the team, are you comfortable? In my view, the Jackets have a great situation going on. Jones: an elite, Norris caliber #1D; Werenski: a high octane, offensive-minded #2; and Murray: a strong two-way shutdown #3. Murray is in a good situation himself right now. If you took Jones away, you think that would remain?

You wanna argue that Murray played like a top-pairing D last year, that’s reasonable. I have yet to see a reasonable argument for Murray being a #1D. From Visqi, whom I’ve respected as a great poster for almost a decade, has said little else but “Ryan Murray is a #1D and if you don’t see it too bad, it’s the truth” on the subject. I think that deserves some questions.

I personally call him a #1D. When I'm discussing things, I usually dial that down to "top pairing", because calling someone a #1D ends up creating a bunch of arguments that folks don't care for.

The problem is that, most of the time, when I watch a player and think "they're good at X", I can usually go from there to various stats and confirm "yep, they're good at X, altho they might not be as good at Y" and so forth. With Murray, historically that's been very difficult to do, so I frankly gave up on trying to do so a long time ago, and just decided that he was a demonstration of how our statistical models don't cover all the gaps.

That and I've been in a grumpier mood than usual lately for a number of reasons.

 

[Volica]

A goalie is the best player in this draft class... normally not a great sign.

Some top pairing D, some top line forwards, a bunch of starting goaltenders... no superstar talent in terms of skaters. Half of the first round is bust or replacement level.

This was the worst draft of the 2010’s, and not close tbh.

 

[BlueMed]

Rielly is quite easily the best player. Burke's comments which were laughed at came true

Reilly is better than Parayko? Not even close.

I'll take the 6'6 defensemen who can shutdown other team's top forwards over a 7 game series with his insane speed, positioning, and reach who can also shoot 100+ miles per hour.