Reevaluating the “terrible” 2012 draft class

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by NoName, Sep 3, 2019.

  1. Filthy Dangles

    Filthy Dangles Playing puck on a pond somewhere

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    "bi-perrenial 50 point player"

    Yeah, if you have to describe a former top3 overall pick like that..........they probably aren't very good.
     
  2. Juxtaposer

    Juxtaposer Outro: Divina Comedia

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    You gotta give up this quest to convince everyone that Ryan Murray is a #1D. He isn’t by any measure.
     
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  3. joe dirte

    joe dirte Registered User

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    There are some good dmen, but overal, it's definitely not stacked. It's weak, but some solid D talent came out of it.

    The forwards are quite clearly a large step down from most other draft classes, and compare the defense - Rielly, Trouba, Skjei, Maatta, and Murray, to say:

    2013 - Seth Jones, Ristolainen, Pesce, Zadorov, Nurse, Morrissey, Theodore, Pulock, and Ben Fricken Harpur.
    2014 - Ekblad, Montour, Sanheim, Deangelo (2012 D is much better, but not enough to make up for the amount of offense in that draft, like Point, Ehlers, Draisaitl, Larkin, Pastrnak, Nylander).
    2015 - Werenski, Provorov, Hanifin, Carlo, Nutivaara, Chabot, Dermott

    There may be some good D, but it doesn't really set itself apart from most years, and the forward talent overall is quite frankly atrocious. only 4 forwards with more than 200 points. Despite having 1 less year to accomplish that, 2013 already has 6. Despite having 2 less years, 2014 already has the same, 4. Despite having 3 less seasons, 2015 already has the same, 4. If Debrincat has another year like last, 2016 will have 4 after this season.

    Overall, it's definitely a bad draft class. Average, maybe a little above in terms of dmen, bottom of the barrell for forwards.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019 at 11:18 AM
  4. Viqsi

    Viqsi where we're going we don't need draft picks

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    Thanks for sharing. He's a #1D. Or do you also presume that Marc-Edouard Vlasic was never a #1D?
     
  5. ABCUser

    ABCUser Registered User

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    Reinhart was a great pick for the Islanders. It's a case of one man's garbage is another man's treasure. If Chiarelli wasn't the Oilers GM, it would have been a terrible pick. But knowing that Chia was available to trade with and that Reinhart played juniors in his area, it was genius grabbing him at #4. Besides the Barzal pick, I'm still surprised the Isles couldn't work out getting Hall in that deal. I would have loved to hear what a Chiarelli / Snow conversation sounded like.
     
  6. Filthy Dangles

    Filthy Dangles Playing puck on a pond somewhere

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    I'm just struggling to find much objective info that points to him being #1 or top-pairing. He doesn't score, he doesn't 'push the pace' (impact possession or shots, but also doesn't get caved in).

    I view him as a solid 2nd pairing defenseman, someone like Jonas Brodin maybe. Eat 20 or so minutes and make sure nothing bad happens, but won't make anything spectacular happen either.

    Obviously, it's not like if you put Brodin or Murray on a first pairing the world falls apart and your team gets caved. We shoehorn players into labels like #2/#3 and I'm not sure how much of a difference there is between those, but ideally slotted, i'd say 2nd pairing.
     
  7. Viqsi

    Viqsi where we're going we don't need draft picks

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    Look at team record with and without him. Overall and particular teammates.
     
  8. ESH

    ESH Registered User

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    You can go through every draft and claim it’s not bad because there were good players drafted. 2012 has the weakest forward crop for a draft in who knows how long.
     
  9. SadEugeneOregonDonor

    SadEugeneOregonDonor Registered User

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    He's not the best but he's up there for sure. Best in the top 5 though.

    Guys in that draft who are worthy of top 5 picks:
    - Vasilevsky
    - Rielly
    - Forsberg
    - Dumba
    - Slavin

    Guys worthy of top 10:
    - Murray
    - Lindholm
    - Trouba
    - Hertl
    - Teravainen
    - Lindell
    - Parayko
    - Andersen
    - Murray
    - probably Helleybucyk
    - probably Ghost
    - probably Wilson

    Not a great draft by any means, though... some very good players but a lot of very very middling guys, too. And while there are 3-4 above average starters and 8 or 9 top pair DMen, there will likely be not even 5 top line forwards from the draft.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019 at 3:27 PM
  10. SadEugeneOregonDonor

    SadEugeneOregonDonor Registered User

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    Youre the funniest poster on here by far
     
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  11. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Depends on how you evaluate a draft. Is it only top end talent? Or is it how many career NHL players a draft produces? I'm going to define a career NHLer as 200+ NHL GP, since players in such recent drafts will not have had an opportunity to reach a significantly higher total yet. Similarly, I didn't compare any drafts after 2012, since those players would not have had the same amount of time to establish themselves in the NHL.

    The 2012 NHL draft has produced 45 players with 200+ NHL GP
    The 2011 NHL draft has produced 44 players with 200+ NHL GP
    The 2010 NHL draft has produced 49 players with 200+ NHL GP
    The 2009 NHL draft has produced 51 players with 200+ NHL GP

    All of these are recent drafts, and some career NHLers are still reaching the 200GP treshold in them, but 2012 has already passed 2011 and looks similarly poised to the three drafts before that. 2012 still has several players that have a very reasonable chance of passing 200 in the next 1-2 years (Kerfoot, Jankowski, Leipsic, Djoos, Sundqvist, etc).

    Looking at some older drafts for context. Note that since the larger time elapsed, there will be more players reaching these 200 NHL GP thresholds.

    The 2006 NHL draft has produced 42 players with 200+ NHL GP and 26 with 500+ NHL GP
    The 2003 NHL draft has produced 69 players with 200+ NHL GP and 46 with 500+ NHL GP
    The 2000 NHL draft has produced 46 players with 200+ NHL GP and 32 with 500+ NHL GP
    The 1999 NHL draft has produced 41 players with 200+ NHL GP and 23 with 500+ NHL GP

    So the 2003 class continues to establish itself as the cream of the crop in almost any evaluation metric, but the 2012 class holds up well when compared to the relatively well regarded 2006 class and is already ahead of the 1999 class and on the verge of matching the 2000 class. So while the names at the top of the 2012 class aren't all that impressive, it doesn't seem to be an outlier in any fashion with regards to the quantity of NHL depth produced.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019 at 3:47 PM
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  12. ottawa

    ottawa Avatar of the Year*

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    How many 50 point forwards are there in the league? Galchenyuk is most definitely a top 6 forward, people just have outdated expectations for a top 6 forward...it's not 1983 anymore.
     
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  13. Juxtaposer

    Juxtaposer Outro: Divina Comedia

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    Marc-Edouard Vlasic was one of the very best shot-impact players in the entire league for a half-decade while being absolutely buried in terms of usage and carrying Justin Braun with him. He regularly tilted the ice to the tune of 60% shot share against any star forward opponents had to offer. He won a Gold medal playing shutdown minutes against the best players in the world. He lead the Sharks to a Cup Final in 2016, while being on the ice for TWO even strength goals against in the entire first three rounds (again, that’s 18 games) against the likes of Kopitar, Tarasenko, and Forsberg.

    Ryan Murray dreams of being prime Vlasic. Truly, kind of embarrassing that you’d even compare the two.

    More interesting is that I haven’t seen a single other Jackets fan come to your defense in your single minded insistence that Ryan Murray is a #1D this summer.

    You haven’t provided a shred of objective argument, other than record when he’s in and out of the lineup, which is incredibly deceiving since it doesn’t take into account literally any other factor about what’s going on with the team at the time (other injuries, strength of opponent, hot/cold goaltending).

    They aren’t mocking your definition of top-6 forward, they’re mocking your claim that Galchenyuk isn’t a disappointment.
     
  14. Viqsi

    Viqsi where we're going we don't need draft picks

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    Maybe if it was actually a controversial position to take they would. You're the first to start insisting "no, really, he's not". He had a bit of a coming out party this year. At bare minimum he's top-pairing.
     
  15. serp

    serp Registered User

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    Some very good goalies and defenseman in the 2012 draft . Forwards are really lacking though . Most any forward from that draft scored in a season is 76 points . Two complete busts drafted in the top 5 don't look good either.
     
  16. Sergei Shirokov

    Sergei Shirokov Registered User

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    Interesting class. Despite the depth I'd still call it relatively weak. Although it did include the best 1st round goalie prospect in awhile.
     
  17. Sergei Shirokov

    Sergei Shirokov Registered User

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    Yup.

    2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Jones, Monahan, Lindholm, Horvat all elite to high end players. Plus Drouin / Ristolainen.

    2014 is a bit weaker, but Draisaitl is a gem. Ekblad, Reinhart, Nylander, Ehlers have all turned out to be good NHLers too.
     
  18. Juxtaposer

    Juxtaposer Outro: Divina Comedia

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    I have yet to see a single other person than you claim that Ryan Murray is a #1D.
     
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  19. alko

    alko Registered User

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    How many individual trophies and Stanley Cups is connected with this draft year?
     
  20. Regal

    Regal Registered User

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    He was really good last year. 55.2 GF% 5v5 (2nd among Clb defensemen to Savard), 53.7 xGF% 5v5 (1st among Clb defensemen), 52.7 SCF% 5v5 (1st among Clb defensemen) and 24 5v5 points (one behind Werenski and tied with Jones), despite playing only 59 games. In fact, his 1.47 P/60 at 5v5 was actually 7th among all defensemen (after Gio, Rielly, Burns, Letang, Weber and Chabot), and he paced for 40 points with all but 1 point coming at ES. His on-ice shooting percentage suggests regression and he hasn't played that well before, but he was arguably better than Jones in the regular season.
     
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  21. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan lasertarian

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    hampus lindholm
     
  22. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan lasertarian

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    i wouldnt call him a 1d but his 18-19 was much better than his previous 2 seasons. hes a #3 at worst.
     
  23. nturn06

    nturn06 Registered User

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    The problem with BB is that he only came out saying that he had Yakupov on the do not draft list and Rielly at #1 many years after the draft.

    It is amazing how badly he failed as GM in Toronto given how he was never wrong in evaluating players and their future careers...
     
  24. MessierII

    MessierII Registered User

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    Still the worst draft in recent history at the top
     
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  25. Voight

    Voight #winning

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    No he didn't.



    7:22-7:35 of the video you can hear him tell Bettman that he had Rielly ranked #1 and Bettman says "not bad, funny how things work out"

    Burke thrilled after Maple Leafs draft defenceman Morgan Rielly fifth overall

    In this article he says it literally the night of the draft.
     

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