Redrafting 2012

[My Special Purpose]

There's a neat thread on the main board talking about the 2012 draft, which is interesting for us for a lot of reasons.

First of all, Jaccob Slavin is getting a *ton* of love, with a lot of non-Hurricane-fan posters actually putting him at the top of their lists. I heart Slavin. I really do. But I'm pretty sure a lot of us can't even do that. So my first question is this, who would Hurricanes fans take No. 1 in a redraft of the 2012 draft?

Personally, if I had the No. 1 pick in a 2012 redraft for Carolina, I'd have a hard time not taking Matt Murray or Filip Forsberg.

Secondly, some guys available in free agency and the current trade market were top picks in 2012, like Yakupov (No. 1) and Galchenyuk (No. 3). I agree with some posters on this board advocating taking a flyer on Yakupov. I can see it. And I really, really like Galchenyuk. He's been jerked around a bit in Montreal and still produced for a young player. I think the best is yet to come from him, especially if he gets a clear position and role from a new team. He's the same age as Teuvo Teravainen (also in the 2012 draft and around No. 20 in a redraft) and already has a 30-goal season.

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[tarheelhockey]

I mean, without Slavin this team has Hanifin on the top pair and... Fleury on the second pair?

Yeah I'm taking Slavin (or possibly Lindholm) there. The addition of a top-pair LHD in that draft was a massive leap forward, moreso than any forward or goalie in that particular draft could deliver.

 

[DaveG]

Forsberg is still the guy I'd have at #1 from that drat, but yeah no doubt in my mind more then anyone else Slavin challenges that.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

While Murray is off to the best start to a career by a netminder since Barrasso, or maybe even Dryden, he's still just a goalie. Maybe it's because the really good ones don't get traded, but that position hasn't held elite value recently. Schneider, a semi-proven all-star caliber talent, went for the 9th overall pick alone back in 2013. A comparable skater would be worth more.

I'd go with Forsberg 5 years in, but if Slavin continues to develop offensively, he'll definitely be in the conversation in the long-term.

 

[Roboturner913]

Forsberg would be hard to pass on for sure.

Let's just say though, as it turns out, if you were not going to have a first-rounder one given year, 2012 was a pretty good one to do that.

Forsberg, Parayko, Slavin, Murray seem to be the best 4 options there to me, in that order.

 

[Breakdowns]

People actually know about Slavin huh? That is a surprise, half a year ago, there were not many how did know him.

Let`s keep him as a secret please

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

My top 3 would be Lindholm, Forsberg, and Murray. I realize we are looking in hindsight, but if I was a GM, I would never take a goalie that high because they are too unpredictable.

Tier 1
Lindholm
Forsberg
M. Murray

Tier 2
Trouba
Parayko
Slavin
Rielly

After that: Galchenyuk, Pearson, Andersen, Gostisbehere, Dumba, Ceci, Skjei, Matta, Severson, in some sort of order and I'm sure I'm missing someone.

For as weak as that draft is viewed to be, there are some really fantastic defensemen to come out of it.

 

[DougieSmash]

I don't get the logic for Murray. Let's return to 2006 draft. Kessel is two time SC winner but Backstrom is not. So, by that logic maybe Kessel should go before Backstrom in eventual re-draft? Maatta is from this draft, too. But two Cups or not, he's not better than Slavin, Trouba or Rielly.

Should Bryan Rust go before Skinner in 2010 because those two Cups?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't get the logic for Murray. Let's return to 2006 draft. Kessel is two time SC winner but Backstrom is not. So, by that logic maybe Kessel should go before Backstrom in eventual re-draft? Maatta is from this draft, too. But two Cups or not, he's not better than Slavin, Trouba or Rielly.

Should Bryan Rust go before Skinner in 2010 because those two Cups?

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see people putting Murray up high simply because he's won a cup. He's been an excellent goalie through the playoffs and even the regular season behind a team that isn't exactly strong defensively. The Pens don't exactly lock other teams down like the LAK did.

As I said, I would never choose a goalie that high as they are too unpredictable, but now with hindsight, it's clear to me how good Murray has been. A good/great goalie has the ability to impact a team's fortunes like no other position on the ice.

 

[sheriff bart]

Goalies are so hard to project. Here's a post I made on another message board a while back on this subject. Seems like the answer is to throw a lot of darts...and pray.

Finding a starting goalie really is a crap shoot. If you look at the top 10 goalies for wins (had to pick some kind of stat) and where they came from, you will see that it's a head scratcher.



Holtby - 4th round

Talbot - Undrafted FA

Bobrovsky - Undrafted FA

Dubnyk - 1st round

Price - 1st round

Rask - 1st round

Jones - Undrafted FA

Allen - 2nd round

Anderson - 7th and 3rd round (damn you Freddy)

Murray - 3rd round.



Yes, there are three 1st rounders there, but there are just as many undrafted players. You have to throw a lot of darts, and the one dart that hit the bullseye fell out when Anderson held out to re-enter the draft because we had all the goalies we needed in Ward. Add in the fact that goalies often get hot for a handful of seasons and then regress back to "average at best". GM's must buy Pepto-Bismol by the case.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Goalies are so hard to project. Here's a post I made on another message board a while back on this subject. Seems like the answer is to throw a lot of darts...and pray.

Yep, good post. I like this "goalie a year" strategy, and I don't ever really care to spend a first rounder on one unless it's a slam dunk (rarely if ever is).

 

[Unsustainable]

If I tiered them:

Lindholm
Forsberg
Slavin

Murray
Trouba
Rielly
Parayko

Gost, Galch, Dumba, Skjei

Ceci starts the next tier, I think Ceci is over rated.

 

[RibFrabcus]

I'd probably go:

Lindholm
Forsberg
Trouba
Parayko
Slavin

 

[the halleJOKEL]

i don't think you can discount the fact that matt murray plays for pittsburgh. pretty sure most goalies would look above average on that team

 

[sheriff bart]

Yep, good post. I like this "goalie a year" strategy, and I don't ever really care to spend a first rounder on one unless it's a slam dunk (rarely if ever is).

You do that, and you may be rewarded with the next Rick Dipietro. If you are going to crap the bed on a goalie, don't do it in the first round.

edit: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1871042-what-went-wrong-in-rick-dipietros-once-promising-career

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

You do that, and you may be rewarded with the next Rick Dipietro. If you are going to crap the bed on a goalie, don't do it in the first round.

Agreed. The difference between Price and Holtby doesn't intrigue me enough to risk the Dipietros and Campbells of the world.

(I always go to Campbell instead of Dipietro; Dipietro at least made an All Star Game, and the Stars could've had Fowler instead of what turned out to be absolutely nothing.)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

i don't think you can discount the fact that matt murray plays for pittsburgh. pretty sure most goalies would look above average on that team

Wins/Losses, yes, but I'm not so sure about that when it comes to SV% and GAA. For the Pens games I watched, they weren't exactly "tight" defensively and seemed to give up a fair amount of scoring chances. I think they were also one of the worst teams in the league in terms of shots against.

Another datapoint is that MAF had a .909 SV% vs. a .923 SV% for Murray.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think it's Forsberg or Slavin.

I don't see why Lindholm would be in their tier.

I never know what to think of goalies on great teams. I don't know if we'll ever know how good Fleury or Crawford really were.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think it's Forsberg or Slavin.

I don't see why Lindholm would be in their tier.

Defensively, Lindholm is as good or better than Slavin. Slavin's offense (assists) this past season is a little better than Lindholm's, but Lindholm has been a better goal scorer and has a longer track record. IMO, Lindholm definitely is in at least the same tier if not higher.

 

[Ole Gil]

Defensively, Lindholm is as good or better than Slavin. Slavin's offense (assists) this past season is a little better than Lindholm's, but Lindholm has been a better goal scorer and has a longer track record. IMO, Lindholm definitely is in at least the same tier if not higher.

Hampus. That's a derp on my part there.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

If I tiered them:

Lindholm
Forsberg
Slavin

Murray
Trouba
Rielly
Parayko

Gost, Galch, Dumba, Skjei

Ceci starts the next tier, I think Ceci is over rated.

If you frequented the Sens board, you'd see he's underrated. People there want to fire him into the sun.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

People actually know about Slavin huh? That is a surprise, half a year ago, there were not many how did know him.

Let`s keep him as a secret please

He's getting a fair bit of love in the Top 25 D-men thread, too. I think only two lists I've read thus far excluded him and of those two, one had none of our d-men and one had Faulk at #25.

 

[MinJaBen]

Some of you may have seen it already, but I just found it today. It is a great read on how the 2012 draft played out with us selecting Slavin. Very much like the Cane's piece on the Aho draft.

Slavin Draft

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Some of you may have seen it already, but I just found it today. It is a great read on how the 2012 draft played out with us selecting Slavin. Very much like the Cane's piece on the Aho draft.

Slavin Draft

Yeah, saw that a while back. I'd like to see what they had on Carrick though, because they chose him a few picks ahead of Slavin so obviously someone thought he was the better choice of the two.

 

[HisIceness]

This team badly needed blue-line help in 2012. Jay Harrison was our best D-man, Faulk was still developing and one of the worst things that could have happened to his development would have been a constant revolving door of Bobby Sanguinetti/Joe Corvo types year after year.

Forsberg is hard to pass on sure, but at this particular time I'm looking for any way to improve the blue-line. I'm picking Slavin. Proof you can find studs past round 2.