Redo the first 5 picks of the 1990 Draft

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,980
Brooklyn
First of all, the Detroit Red Wings absolutely needed Brendan Shanahan in two of their three pre-lockout Cup runs, so I have to straight-up disagree there. His presence is one of the key reasons that they were able to stand up to the Colorado Avalanche in 1997, so much so to the extent that he literally fought Patrick Roy. In 2002, he was their glue in the regular season, and up until the point in which they coasted through April, his name was brought up with Francis' and Iginla's as one of the possible forward contenders for the Hart Trophy in a goalie heavy year.

Brodeur would allow the Detroit Red Wings to win maybe one extra Stanley Cup pre-lockout: 1995, and that's because his play was one of the major reasons that the Devils won it in the first place. Detroit was consistently knocked out of the playoffs not because they didn't have a strong goaltender, but because they ran into the hottest goalie of the month.

1996 (Pre-Shanahan)
Roy: .921
Osgood: .898
Brodeur: N/A

1999
Roy: .920
Osgood: .919
Brodeur: .856

2000
Roy: .928
Brodeur: .927
Osgood: .924

2001
Potvin: .909
Osgood: .905
Brodeur: .897

2003
Giguere: .945
Brodeur: .934
Joseph: .917

2004
Joseph: .939
Kiprusoff: .928
Legace: .905
Brodeur: .902


Taking away Shanahan via Primeau in order for Brodeur to come in doesn't provide a definitive goaltending edge against any of the teams that knocked out the Red Wings (and perhaps only twice or so over Osgood, Legace, and Joseph), and because of Shanahan's absence, they would have had even fewer offensive weapons at their disposal.

It might have been a wash or worse.

Is comparing save percentages of goalies who played different teams supposed to be meaningful?

I mean, i do agree that shanny was a pissing piece, but those stats don't mean very much. Jagr owned brodeur in 1999 for whatever reason; he wouldn't have played brodeur if brodeur was on Detroit.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
28,585
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You do realize that the split had nothing to do with the revolution or desovietization, do you?

i don't want to go too overboard with the '89 period eastern-european history here. but my point about the split into independent republics was that political change takes time, especially after a regime change. yes, the revolution was not waged in order to separate the czech republic and slovakia, but at the same time the separation into two independent republics was still a consequence of the revolution.

You also do realize that Czechoslovakia was never a "soviet country", right?

that was sloppy terminology on my part. obviously i meant "communist." the old cold war rhetoric is still jammed up there in my head.

The point is, no one would've stopped him if he went. He was completely free to go to the US.

it turns out in retrospect that this is correct. that's easy for us to say in 2011, but NHL teams in 1990 did not have our perspective. this was a country in political transition, working through a massive regime change. how is a north american hockey team going to know who is really in charge? who has the final say?

again, *in retrospect* and knowing what we know about communist bureaucracy, we all should have known that no one was really in charge and that jagr could slip through the cracks (with, of course, the requisite "fees" being paid). maybe if pat quinn had read a kafka novel, he wouldn't have drafted nedved.

He hadn't completed his military service yet? Did teams not draft Finns because they haven't completed their military service (which is compulsory in Finland) at the time of the draft yet? There was nothing different in drafting Jagr re: military than drafting a Finn. Same deal with Sweden until last year when they abolished mandatory military service. Didn't stop Quebec from drafting Sundin just a year earlier, did it?

The contract point is also completely irrelevant, nearly all drafted Europeans are under a contract to a local team.

can you really use what went on in scandinavian countries as a precedent for what we *presume* would go on in the former czechoslovakia? the point is, jagr was the first czechoslovakian player to be enter the NHL without defecting. there was no precedent.

with sundin, you knew you would get him after a year. without any comparable player at the top of that draft, you take him and you wait. there was a standard release fee for swedish and finnish players and everyone knew how the process was going to play out.

with jagr, not only do you not know *when* he will be able to come over, you don't know how much it's going to cost you.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
77,850
51,520
Brodeur would have had Scottie Bowman in Detroit.

Yes but keep in mind how the Wings faced a lot of growing pains getting adjusted to the Bowman blueprint, like losing to the Leafs and Sharks in the first round in 1993 and 1994. Maybe it wouldn't have made a huge difference in any event, but to me the NJ/Brodeur marriage was a match made in heaven, couldn't have seen it working out better in any other arrangement.
 

Sadekuuro

Registered User
Aug 23, 2005
6,763
1,170
Cascadia
I don't buy the argument that the Red Wings win the 1995 Finals if Brodeur switches sides. Goaltending wasn't the difference. They just plain got housed. Nobody besides Fedorov and Coffey could even gain the zone.
 

kmad

riot survivor
Jun 16, 2003
34,133
60
Vancouver
I don't buy the argument that the Red Wings win the 1995 Finals if Brodeur switches sides. Goaltending wasn't the difference. They just plain got housed. Nobody besides Fedorov and Coffey could even gain the zone.

But if Detroit has Brodeur, Jersey has Chris Terreri in goal. Hell, they likely wouldn't even make the finals.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,980
Brooklyn
But if Detroit has Brodeur, Jersey has Chris Terreri in goal. Hell, they likely wouldn't even make the finals.

Agree. Likely the Devils would have lost tobrhe Penguins or Flyers without brodeur in goal. Assuming they made they playoffs - not a guarantee considering the big difference a couple of games would have been in the short year.
 

Blades of Glory

Troll Captain
Feb 12, 2006
18,401
6
California
Why is there such a consensus on Jagr over Brodeur? Assuming we're picking based on what we know now.

5 Art Ross Trophies? 127 points on a line with Kip Miller and Jan Hrdina in the dead puck era? 181 points in 169 playoff games? Jagr is a generational talent like few others. If we know what we know now, Jagr would go #1 overall in all but one draft of the last 30 years. In 1984, he would go #2. He is the best RW in NHL history not named Gordie Howe or the Rocket.
 
Last edited:

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,980
Brooklyn
5 Art Ross Trophies? 127 points on a line with Kip Miller and Jan Hrdina in the dead puck era? 181 points in 169 playoff games? Jagr is a generational talent like few others. If we know what we know now, Jagr would go #1 overall in all but one draft of the last 30 years. In 1984, he would go #2. He is the best RW in NHL history not named Gordie Howe.

I think jagr was the better player and likely had the better career. But if I'm drafting a franchise player, I probably draft brodeur first. With brodeur, you know that for 15 seasons, your goal is well tended by a self-motivated goalie who never has a bad season, never puts himself over his team, and always gives you a shot at the Cup if you surround him with the right guys.

When Jagr was on, there were few or none better, but I think brodeur is just such an easy player to build a winning franchise around.
 

Blades of Glory

Troll Captain
Feb 12, 2006
18,401
6
California
I think jagr was the better player and likely had the better career. But if I'm drafting a franchise player, I probably draft brodeur first. With brodeur, you know that for 15 seasons, your goal is well tended by a self-motivated goalie who never has a bad season, never puts himself over his team, and always gives you a shot at the Cup if you surround him with the right guys.

When Jagr was on, there were few or none better, but I think brodeur is just such an easy player to build a winning franchise around.

I think Brodeur and Jagr are very similar in the regard that they could take a mediocre (or worse) team into the playoffs, and even win a round. Honestly, if I was building a team, I don't know who I would pick. Jagr could win the Art Ross with trash on his line, and Brodeur could win the Vezina with trash in front of him. But I think Jagr was too dominant of a player not to go first overall in 90, especially to Quebec. If you put Jagr with Sakic, God knows what happens. In hindsight, considering they got Roy, I think Quebec would definitely pick Jagr. But it all depends on the team that is picking first.
 

IggyFan12

Registered User
Jul 26, 2010
317
6
Its very tuff to go with either Jagr or Brodeur because it all depends on your philosophy as a team. Both players are in the top 10 of their position all time. One thing to consider however is if Jagr would want to play his whole career in Quebec while Brodeur being from Quebec probably would have no problem playing for Quebec. In terms of a pure hockey sense the thought of a Sakic, Sundin and Jagr line which would dominate for many many years is pretty hard to pass up.
 

BamBamCam*

Guest
i don't want to go too overboard with the '89 period eastern-european history here. but my point about the split into independent republics was that political change takes time, especially after a regime change. yes, the revolution was not waged in order to separate the czech republic and slovakia, but at the same time the separation into two independent republics was still a consequence of the revolution.



that was sloppy terminology on my part. obviously i meant "communist." the old cold war rhetoric is still jammed up there in my head.



it turns out in retrospect that this is correct. that's easy for us to say in 2011, but NHL teams in 1990 did not have our perspective. this was a country in political transition, working through a massive regime change. how is a north american hockey team going to know who is really in charge? who has the final say?

again, *in retrospect* and knowing what we know about communist bureaucracy, we all should have known that no one was really in charge and that jagr could slip through the cracks (with, of course, the requisite "fees" being paid). maybe if pat quinn had read a kafka novel, he wouldn't have drafted nedved.



can you really use what went on in scandinavian countries as a precedent for what we *presume* would go on in the former czechoslovakia? the point is, jagr was the first czechoslovakian player to be enter the NHL without defecting. there was no precedent.

with sundin, you knew you would get him after a year. without any comparable player at the top of that draft, you take him and you wait. there was a standard release fee for swedish and finnish players and everyone knew how the process was going to play out.

with jagr, not only do you not know *when* he will be able to come over, you don't know how much it's going to cost you.

Where are you going with this? I think you have a lot of misconceptions about Czech Republic and Slovakia. I visited in 1990, 1992 and 1994. Jagr was allowed to leave without all this unknown processes you keep referring to. Czechoslovakia was not a backwards country. He was also the first Czech player to be allowed to be physically able to be in attendance at the NHL draft. So, they were not going to be any issues leaving and playing in the NHL.

I am very interested in the "Czechoslovakia was not a Soviet country" because they most certainly were a Soviet satellite. But that's a discussion somewhere else.
 

Merya

Jokerit & Finland; anti-theist
Sep 23, 2008
2,279
418
Helsinki
Have to remember that in 1990, there wasn't much experience in how well Eastern European players adapted to NHL.
 

BamBamCam*

Guest
Have to remember that in 1990, there wasn't much experience in how well Eastern European players adapted to NHL.
This is probably more true about the unknown factors of a Czech player. Jagr did have many issues adjusting to life in North America. I believe the Pens traded for Jiri with help Jagr adjust.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
28,585
15,948
my point is that GMs didn't know with any degree of certainty what the jagr situation was going to be. if i've perpetuated any misconceptions, it's because i'm talking precisely about misconceptions and not what actually happened-- because as we all know, jagr was able to leave, and right away. so i'm just repeating what GMs and hockey analysts were saying at the time. craig patrick said at the draft that taking jagr was a gamble, but that his talent made it a gamble worth taking. i remember reading in beckett the first year that magazine existed one of the other GMs-- i think it was clarke-- who said that they would definitely have taken jagr if not for the political instability and unclear picture in czechoslovakia.

we are talking about why jagr wasn't taken 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, not what the actual circumstances of his ability to leave were. this discussion arose because someone had mentioned that GMs didn't take jagr sooner because they didn't know if they could get him to come over quickly. then someone from slovakia said, "communism ended in 1989. so you're wrong." that fact, in and of itself, doesn't prove anything.

if you were there in 1990, maybe you can help out here. i really don't know the timeline on how things in the country changed after '89, but if the jagr case can be any indication, it happened really fast. reasonable to assume, though, that NHL GMs also didn't have a clear picture of what was going to happen with respect to hockey players and leaving as late as june 1990. there wasn't much time between the velvet revolution and the '90 draft to establish new politics, but again these are just assumptions.

Jagr could not have picked a better time in history to become eligible for the NHL draft. The fall of communism in Czechoslovakia was in progress in 1990. Though at draft time there was still much political uncertainty, Jagr and other young Czechs would be allowed to leave the country to purse careers in the NHL. Previous generations of hockey stars in Czechoslovakia could only hope for special permission after years of service to the national team, or risk defecting to the west, leaving their families and home behind forever.

Because the political uncertainty scared many NHL teams, Jagr, the hands-down best player in a strong draft, dropped to the 5th overall selection where the Pittsburgh Penguins were more than willing to be patient with the talented superstar. And their gamble proved to be not much of a gamble at all, as political concerns were all for not. Jagr and other young hockey players were given the blessing to pursue careers in the NHL.

http://penguinslegends.blogspot.com/2008/07/jaromir-jagr.html

NHL scouts were intrigued, but many teams were hesitant to use a high draft pick to select Jagr. Unlike other highly rated standouts from his homeland such as Petr Nedved, Jagr was still in Czechoslovakia. He still had a year remaining on his contract with Kladno, after which he would have to perform two to three years of military service before he would be available to sign with a North American team, assuming that Kladno did not then hold him for a king's ransom.

In the 1990 NHL Entry Draft, the Pittsburgh Penguins, who already had an established franchise player in Mario Lemieux, could afford to take a gamble, and they chose Jagr fifth overall. It was an astute move, as the Penguins got their man much sooner than expected. The Eastern Bloc dissolved that summer and Jagr, suddenly free to move once Kladno released him, arrived in the United States as an 18-year-old rookie.

http://www.legendsofhockey.net/LegendsOfHockey/jsp/SearchPlayer.jsp?player=10703

i think, in a weaker year, you would still probably take jagr first and gamble that he would defect or that he would eventually be able to come over. but those other four guys had tremendous upside too. still, jagr was the cream of the crop, according to most.

"It's funny, but the Canucks asked me who was the best player in the draft when they interviewed me in 1990," Nedved says. "I told (General Manager) Pat Quinn, 'Jagr, by far,' yet they took me. Just think if Vancouver had Jagr, Pavel Bure and Alexander Mogilny now."

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_n16_v220/ai_18191253/pg_3/?tag=content;col1 (the sporting news)

so it seems that the *perceived* uncertainty is what kept him from going higher, which is what we were talking about.

as for the other thing (which this is probably not the best time or place to get into), it's a difficult question, this terminology. i certainly am not going to tell a slovakian that his country was or was not soviet. but yes, there is a reason jagr wore 68, and it wasn't for what some university students did in paris.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
28,585
15,948
Have to remember that in 1990, there wasn't much experience in how well Eastern European players adapted to NHL.

This is probably more true about the unknown factors of a Czech player. Jagr did have many issues adjusting to life in North America. I believe the Pens traded for Jiri with help Jagr adjust.

mogilny, who came over a year earlier, is a pretty good example of a young eastern-european player who had an extremely difficult time adjusting to north american life. the talent was there for all to see, but the personal problems also affected his play. craig patrick's trade for hdrina was brilliant. i don't know why more GMs didn't do that back then.
 

BamBamCam*

Guest
mogilny, who came over a year earlier, is a pretty good example of a young eastern-european player who had an extremely difficult time adjusting to north american life. the talent was there for all to see, but the personal problems also affected his play. craig patrick's trade for hdrina was brilliant. i don't know why more GMs didn't do that back then.

Hrdrina that was his name, could only remember the Jiri part, thanks.

I understand Jagr had major troubles adjusting also, didn't know the language, etc.. At that time, the Czechs and Slovaks were required to learn Russian not English so, my understanding was, he didn't know any English when he came over.

http://sports.jrank.org/pages/2264/Jagr-Jaromir-Drafted-by-Penguins.html

Off the ice, Jagr found the transition to life in the United States difficult. He did not yet speak the language, though he was learning it from television. While the Penguins placed him with a Czech family in the city, he missed his own family and friends. During the season, the team traded for an elder Czech—Jiri Hrdina—to translate for him and help him make the transition as a player and away from the rink. But each summer in the 1990s, Jagr would return to his native country and train.
 

BamBamCam*

Guest
we are talking about why jagr wasn't taken 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, not what the actual circumstances of his ability to leave were. this discussion arose because someone had mentioned that GMs didn't take jagr sooner because they didn't know if they could get him to come over quickly. then someone from slovakia said, "communism ended in 1989. so you're wrong." that fact, in and of itself, doesn't prove anything.

This may sound arrogant because that poster is from Slovak and perhaps lived it but I am not sure how old he is either; by saying that Czechoslovakia was not a Soviet country in his first post because it very much was a Soviet satellite. That raises my eyebrow, if you catch my meaning. I may not be understanding him very well either.

It was in fact very quick from the first days of the Velvet/Gentle Revolution to the fall. The Warsaw Pact had already collapsed, the first demonstrations were in late November and I believe by December the Communists had already agreed to give up control. By the end of December Havel was already the new President. It was that quick. It happened in a matter of weeks to one month.

if you were there in 1990, maybe you can help out here. i really don't know the timeline on how things in the country changed after '89, but if the jagr case can be any indication, it happened really fast. reasonable to assume, though, that NHL GMs also didn't have a clear picture of what was going to happen with respect to hockey players and leaving as late as june 1990. there wasn't much time between the velvet revolution and the '90 draft to establish new politics, but again these are just assumptions.

You have merit in what you say but I can't stop thinking that by Jagr being present at the draft, that it was symbolic enough that, there were not going to be any issues. As it turned out there were zero issues.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
28,585
15,948
yeah, nedved defected at a tournament in calgary. he then played in the WHL in seattle and tore up the league. i remember having his pro set rookie card and looking at his WHL stats i thought he was going to be the next hawerchuk.

1989-90 Seattle Thunderbirds WHL 71 65 80 145

watching him those early years in vancouver, he had the talent too. the shot, the passing ability and vision, the size. a lot like kovalev but less flashy. a lot of people looked at him defecting and said, "that's a courageous young man. he will be a warrior in the league." funny how that turned out.

apparently, they put jagr in intensive english classes when he came over. he didn't know a word of english.

The Penguins did their due diligence in developing Jagr. They immediately brought him to Pittsburgh and found a Czech family in the city for him to live with. They set him up with intense English tutoring a good month before his first training camp. And they would acquire long time Czech player Jiri Hrdina to give Jagr a friend and father figure. Together they were known as the Czech Mates.

http://penguinslegends.blogspot.com/2008/07/jaromir-jagr.html

having larionov there really helped bure when he came to vancouver, and he was 20 already. jagr was 18. i remember reading that he couldn't do anything by himself-- banking, taking cabs, even ordering at restaurants. he couldn't talk to his teammates at first, or fully understand what badger bob was telling him to do on the ice. good on pittsburgh for giving him that support network. as i recall, he really picked up his game in the second half of that season after hrdina came over from calgary and felt more like a part of the team. and i remember reading twenty years ago that having a an old pro like trottier there really helped jagr adapt as a player too.
 

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