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FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
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In 2008 John Carlson was drafted 27th - he'd certainly be a top 10 -maybe even top 5 pick if the draft was done over.

Top 5 for Carlson is a stretch and a half. Top 10 is very debatable.

Stamkos
Doughty
Pietrangelo
Eberle
Schenn
Myers
Karlsson
Ennis
... after that I'd have a group of guys like Carlson, Bogosian, Sbisa, Hodgson, Wilson etc. So MAYBE top 10.
 

Dr.Sens(e)

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Feb 27, 2002
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I think he's a 3rd round player, but could see him go in the 2nd after his good showing (or just more exposure) at the U-18's.

Not to come after you, but first you say that what Ewanyk did at the U-18's is par for the course all season and for Redline to say he is a riser is to suggest they don't watch him (enough anyway). Then when asked yourself, you upgrade him from a 3rd rounder to a 2nd rounder (which is a big jump) based on the U18's. Seems you have done the same, no?

To have the same impact (and even get invited) at the U-18's is surely a positive sign for the guy to move him up, and that is all they are saying. The guy wasn't an impact player in the WHL per se. Is it just the exagerated hyperbole by Woodlief in describing him that bugged you?
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
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Not to come after you, but first you say that what Ewanyk did at the U-18's is par for the course all season and for Redline to say he is a riser is to suggest they don't watch him (enough anyway). Then when asked yourself, you upgrade him from a 3rd rounder to a 2nd rounder (which is a big jump) based on the U18's. Seems you have done the same, no?

To have the same impact (and even get invited) at the U-18's is surely a positive sign for the guy to move him up, and that is all they are saying. The guy wasn't an impact player in the WHL per se. Is it just the exagerated hyperbole by Woodlief in describing him that bugged you?

Yes.

My issue is that Redline was so shocked at his play at the U-18's. Suggesting that they didn't really have a strong handle on him as a player. I agree with their explanation of him and stand by my prediction of a (likely late) 2nd round pick.
 

birddog*

Guest
Top 5 for Carlson is a stretch and a half. Top 10 is very debatable.

Stamkos
Doughty
Pietrangelo
Eberle
Schenn
Myers
Karlsson
Ennis
... after that I'd have a group of guys like Carlson, Bogosian, Sbisa, Hodgson, Wilson etc. So MAYBE top 10.

I've never been a fan of Karlsson and his defence. I've seen him out-muscled, in situations that led to goals, too many times to count. I would take Carlson above him. Ditto for Ennis.

Agreed top 5 is a stretch but top 10 is not. Still the overall point stands that at 27 he was drafted much lower than he should have been.
 

FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
31,084
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Ottawa
First thing to remember is that putting up a point per game with the NTDP team is different than putting up a point per game in the USHL with another team. The NTDP team is the youngest in the league. Age, inexperience, physical and mental immaturity are huge factors working against them on most nights. The majority of the NTDP team(s) didn't even dominate the NAHL for those same reasons. The sledding is even tougher for them obviously in a much superior league. Second thing to remember is that Grimaldi's NTDP team isn't one of the better offensive teams the NTDP has had. Offensively, they're basically a one line team with Rocco, J.T. Miller, and Reid Boucher and Rocco is the straw that stirs that drink.

For more perspective, just look at where Rocco is in NTDP History for scoring. He's currently 8th in career goals, 2nd in career assists, and 5th in career points. The only players ahead of him in career points are 1) Phil Kessel (180); 2) Patrick Kane (172); 3) Andy Hilbert (153); 4) Jeremy Morin (139); and then 5) Rocco Grimaldi (135).

Even with that, you have to remember that during Kessel, Kane, and Morin's NTDP runs they played in the NAHL both seasons and not the USHL like Rocco. Hilbert's first season was also in the NAHL as well but his second season was in the USHL (NTDP last played full seasons in the USHL during the 98-99 and 99-00 seasons. They just rejoined the USHL last season). When Hilbert played with the NTDP they also used to play a lot more games and the USHL was a much weaker league back then. Now not only were all 4 of those players playing in weaker leagues, but in the case of Kessel, Kane, and Morin you also need to look at who they played with. Kessel played with the following: Peter Mueller (also Top 10 in NTDP goals, assists, and scoring), Jack Johnson (#3 in all-time NTDP d-man scoring), Erik Johnson (#4 in all-time NTDP d-man scoring) Nathan Gerbe, Jack Skille, Ryan Stoa, etc. Kane played with following: Blake Geoffrion, Bill Sweatt, Erik Johnson, Jamie McBain, Jim O'Brien, and Rhett Rakhshani. Morin played with the following: Drew Shore, Jerry D'Amigo, Ryan Bourque, Jordan Schroeder, Kyle Palmieri, Cam Fowler (#10 all-time NTDP d-man scoring), David Warsofsky, Danny Kristo, etc. Andy Hilbert also played with the #10 all-time NTDP player in career points in Connor Dunlop.

With that for some perspective, you also just have to see Rocco play to see what the hype is about. If he were 5'10, he'd be in the running for the #1 pick in the draft. He's an elite skater. Very fast. Very shifty. He has a great shot. He has very, very slick hands. Very good vision. He's very good on face-offs. He plays both ends of the ice. And most importantly, given his size, is that he's a pit bull. He's small but he's compact and tenacious. He doesn't back down at all. He's not afraid to throw his "weight" around, go in the corners, in front of the net, traffic areas, etc. He not only goes to those areas but he excels in them and isn't pushed around and he'll challenge anyone in the process. He's also probably the most driven player I've ever followed. His only drawback is his size.

That said, he's not going Top 10 because he is that small. Even in the new NHL it's a risk and one I don't think teams will be willing to make that high. But he should, and I think he will, go in the 1st Round. This draft doesn't have a lot of "guarantees" and a lot of the players have some glaring warts. A guy like Rocco is worth the pick in the 1st round.

Great post, thank you.
 

Jules Winnfield

Fleurymanbad
Mar 19, 2010
8,919
1,963
I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon Saad drops after the top 20 in getting picked. Not sure if he's injured or what but man he's had a lot of that Dustin Penner look in him this season. Kid showed a lot of promise last season and has some high end skill. If he only had the fire his teammate Trocheck has he'd be a top 8 guy this year.

BTW, whoever gets Trocheck is going to love this kid. I see a lot of Dubinsky in his game.
 

nanzenkills

Registered User
Jan 31, 2007
2,293
1
Ontario, California
:facepalm:


I'll glady take Mika Z at 9. Who wouldn't want a big Iranian Finnish Power Forward?


Zibanejad was born in and plays for Sweden, but his father is Persian and his mother is Finnish. That's where Crossfire's reference came from.

Top 5 for Carlson is a stretch and a half. Top 10 is very debatable.

Stamkos
Doughty
Pietrangelo
Eberle
Schenn
Myers
Karlsson
Ennis
... after that I'd have a group of guys like Carlson, Bogosian, Sbisa, Hodgson, Wilson etc. So MAYBE top 10.

Carlson was the #1 defenseman on the #4 defensive team in the NHL this year. He and his partner Alzner were consistently matched up against opponents' top lines, but he still finished +21 and managed to score 37 points. He made his share of rookie mistakes in his own end, but I would definitely take him over Ennis and Eberle at this point in time. Probably over Karlsson, maybe over Schenn as well. I think he's definitely top 10 for that draft class so far, but top 5 is debatable.

First thing to remember is that putting up a point per game with the NTDP team is different than putting up a point per game in the USHL with another team. The NTDP team is the youngest in the league. Age, inexperience, physical and mental immaturity are huge factors working against them on most nights. The majority of the NTDP team(s) didn't even dominate the NAHL for those same reasons. The sledding is even tougher for them obviously in a much superior league. Second thing to remember is that Grimaldi's NTDP team isn't one of the better offensive teams the NTDP has had. Offensively, they're basically a one line team with Rocco, J.T. Miller, and Reid Boucher and Rocco is the straw that stirs that drink.

For more perspective, just look at where Rocco is in NTDP History for scoring. He's currently 8th in career goals, 2nd in career assists, and 5th in career points. The only players ahead of him in career points are 1) Phil Kessel (180); 2) Patrick Kane (172); 3) Andy Hilbert (153); 4) Jeremy Morin (139); and then 5) Rocco Grimaldi (135).

Even with that, you have to remember that during Kessel, Kane, and Morin's NTDP runs they played in the NAHL both seasons and not the USHL like Rocco. Hilbert's first season was also in the NAHL as well but his second season was in the USHL (NTDP last played full seasons in the USHL during the 98-99 and 99-00 seasons. They just rejoined the USHL last season). When Hilbert played with the NTDP they also used to play a lot more games and the USHL was a much weaker league back then. Now not only were all 4 of those players playing in weaker leagues, but in the case of Kessel, Kane, and Morin you also need to look at who they played with. Kessel played with the following: Peter Mueller (also Top 10 in NTDP goals, assists, and scoring), Jack Johnson (#3 in all-time NTDP d-man scoring), Erik Johnson (#4 in all-time NTDP d-man scoring) Nathan Gerbe, Jack Skille, Ryan Stoa, etc. Kane played with following: Blake Geoffrion, Bill Sweatt, Erik Johnson, Jamie McBain, Jim O'Brien, and Rhett Rakhshani. Morin played with the following: Drew Shore, Jerry D'Amigo, Ryan Bourque, Jordan Schroeder, Kyle Palmieri, Cam Fowler (#10 all-time NTDP d-man scoring), David Warsofsky, Danny Kristo, etc. Andy Hilbert also played with the #10 all-time NTDP player in career points in Connor Dunlop.

With that for some perspective, you also just have to see Rocco play to see what the hype is about. If he were 5'10, he'd be in the running for the #1 pick in the draft. He's an elite skater. Very fast. Very shifty. He has a great shot. He has very, very slick hands. Very good vision. He's very good on face-offs. He plays both ends of the ice. And most importantly, given his size, is that he's a pit bull. He's small but he's compact and tenacious. He doesn't back down at all. He's not afraid to throw his "weight" around, go in the corners, in front of the net, traffic areas, etc. He not only goes to those areas but he excels in them and isn't pushed around and he'll challenge anyone in the process. He's also probably the most driven player I've ever followed. His only drawback is his size.

That said, he's not going Top 10 because he is that small. Even in the new NHL it's a risk and one I don't think teams will be willing to make that high. But he should, and I think he will, go in the 1st Round. This draft doesn't have a lot of "guarantees" and a lot of the players have some glaring warts. A guy like Rocco is worth the pick in the 1st round.

From your description, Grimaldi sounds like the second coming of Theo Fleury. Would you make that comparison?
 

FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
31,084
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Ottawa
I've never been a fan of Karlsson and his defence. I've seen him out-muscled, in situations that led to goals, too many times to count. I would take Carlson above him. Ditto for Ennis.

Agreed top 5 is a stretch but top 10 is not. Still the overall point stands that at 27 he was drafted much lower than he should have been.

Bolded part: of course you think that. You have to by default. :laugh:

As for Carlson going too low, why do you say that? I didn't watch him in his draft year so I can only really go by stats, which weren't anything astronomical to be a top 10 pick in a very strong draft (43 pts in the USHL). Did you watch him and determine this or is it purely hindsight?

Do you wonder why many good players seem to get drafted in the later parts of round 1? The good teams who don't rely on draft position pick there and are far better at developing players. Give Washington some credit here. The Hershey system is one of the best around and they've done wonders with many of the players currently on the Caps.

Scouting was only one part of the success of that pick. Its impossible to say that JC would be were he is now if he had been drafted by a team like Florida or Toronto.
 

birddog*

Guest
Bolded part: of course you think that. You have to by default. :laugh:

As for Carlson going too low, why do you say that? I didn't watch him in his draft year so I can only really go by stats, which weren't anything astronomical to be a top 10 pick in a very strong draft (43 pts in the USHL). Did you watch him and determine this or is it purely hindsight?

Do you wonder why many good players seem to get drafted in the later parts of round 1? The good teams who don't rely on draft position pick there and are far better at developing players. Give Washington some credit here. The Hershey system is one of the best around and they've done wonders with many of the players currently on the Caps.

Scouting was only one part of the success of that pick. Its impossible to say that JC would be were he is now if he had been drafted by a team like Florida or Toronto.

I don't have to think that and his horrid +/- backs me up. I've seen it - he's not very physical - and his small stature allows him to be out-muscled.

I'm not a fan of Washington, so please do tell why I would have to pick Carlson - who I believe is a much better all around defenseman.

As for you give some credit blah blah blah - I have no idea what you are talking about - that's exactly what I am doing here - giving them credit for consistently grabbing guys that should have gone much higher. And the dude put up 76 points in 59 games in London before he ever got to Hersey. I'd say he was pretty damn good before he got to Hersey but those 48 games there sure did do him wonders.

Sorry to hurt your feelings by pointing out your precious is weak defensively.
 

wickedwitch

Registered User
Mar 21, 2010
1,215
39
As for Carlson going too low, why do you say that? I didn't watch him in his draft year so I can only really go by stats, which weren't anything astronomical to be a top 10 pick in a very strong draft (43 pts in the USHL). Did you watch him and determine this or is it purely hindsight?
If you look at the pre-draft discussion, many thought Carlson would be a top 20 pick, and one or two thought he might even squeak into the top 10.

As to why he fell, I don't entirely know. I think a lot of teams are more comfortable drafting out of the CHL, because the level of competition is more well known. But I don't think that's the entire explanation.
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
4,032
32
Kevin Allen touts him as a possible top ten pick (probably more in the 10-15 range). http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2011-04-24-top-american-prospects_N.htm

That's stretching things a bit. He looked good at the U-18's, but I don't expect him to go in the top 20, perhaps not even the first round. In talking with one head scout yesterday for example....he doesn't have Miller in his top 30. If not, he's got to be pretty close I would think.

Boucher is certainly underrated by CS - all he does is score. Love his release, smarts and competitevness.

The real wildcard looks to be Connor Murphy - his stock is rising like no other American prospect - hearing whispers that he may be a first round pick.

I will be co-publishing McKeen's top 125 draft rankings this spring on their website, and also will be writing the profiles for Bob McKenzie's top 60 list on TSN. I spent the previous two seasons scouting for an NHL team on a part-time basis.
 

Rabid Ranger

2 is better than one
Feb 27, 2002
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That's stretching things a bit. He looked good at the U-18's, but I don't expect him to go in the top 20, perhaps not even the first round. In talking with one head scout yesterday for example....he doesn't have Miller in his top 30. If not, he's got to be pretty close I would think.

Boucher is certainly underrated by CS - all he does is score. Love his release, smarts and competitevness.

The real wildcard looks to be Connor Murphy - his stock is rising like no other American prospect - hearing whispers that he may be a first round pick.

I will be co-publishing McKeen's top 125 draft rankings this spring on their website, and also will be writing the profiles for Bob McKenzie's top 60 list on TSN. I spent the previous two seasons scouting for an NHL team on a part-time basis.

I'm under the impression Allen has been in touch with scouts. His ranking is based on their input. Miller might not be a "name" player to many around here, but he has the attributes to be a top two line player at the NHL level. That doesn't mean he's a for sure 1st rounder, but I'd wager a fair amount he will be. He could even go top 15 given how much uncertainty there is with this draft.
 
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Bjorn Le

Hobocop
May 17, 2010
19,592
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Martinaise, Revachol
Carlson was the #1 defenseman on the #4 defensive team in the NHL this year. He and his partner Alzner were consistently matched up against opponents' top lines, but he still finished +21 and managed to score 37 points. He made his share of rookie mistakes in his own end, but I would definitely take him over Ennis and Eberle at this point in time. Probably over Karlsson, maybe over Schenn as well. I think he's definitely top 10 for that draft class so far, but top 5 is debatable.

Carlson was only the #1 defensemen since Green was injured half the season. Agree with the rest of the points though.
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
4,032
32
I'm under the impression Allen has been in touch with scouts. His ranking is based on their input. Miller might be a "name" player to many around here, but he has the attributes to be a top two line player at the NHL level. That doesn't mean he's a for sure 1st rounder, but I'd wager a fair amount he will be. He could even go top 15 given how much uncertainty there is with this draft.

If he think Biggs and Miller are top ten candidates I'm under the impression he hasn't talked to very many crossover scouts...maybe some regional American scouts, but any scout I've talked to that sees players in all of the leagues, and I talk to three regularly don't even like Miller in the first round. We'll see.....could be a huge coincidence...but from what I've personally seen, and I've scouted all of the top prospects except Oleksiak, there's little chance he goes in the top 15. Not enough top-end skill.
 

Rabid Ranger

2 is better than one
Feb 27, 2002
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Murica
If he think Biggs and Miller are top ten candidates I'm under the impression he hasn't talked to very many crossover scouts...maybe some regional American scouts, but any scout I've talked to that sees players in all of the leagues, and I talk to three regularly don't even like Miller in the first round. We'll see.....could be a huge coincidence...but from what I've personally seen, and I've scouted all of the top prospects except Oleksiak, there's little chance he goes in the top 15. Not enough top-end skill.

You could be right, however it only takes one team to like a player to take him higher than the consensus. We'll see. USNTDP and U.S. High School players always begin their rise this time of year anyway.
 
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Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,381
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I liked Miller alot at the u18s. I thought he might have been the best American player or at least the most consistent player in the games I watched. It would not shock me to see a couple of teams like him enough to take him in the first round. The draft is pretty open after the top 8 so it isn't that hard to see that happening.
 

WreckItRask

Registered User
Mar 5, 2007
7,377
16
Minnesota
Glad to see there's a consensus top eight with the talent dropping off after that.

Bruins pick is at nine.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see one of these guys available at #9. All it takes is one GM to go "off the board" with a guy that they're smitten with, and that alters it right away.

I'm not a draftnik by any stretch, and I haven't seen enough of these guys play to compare them against each other, but I'm speaking more in general terms. Certain GM's value certain things/types of players/leagues/personality traits/etc more than other GM's, and sometimes it leads them to rank certain guys higher than the "traditional" rankings that we all subscribe to. You might see a guy like Siemens get taken in the top 8 because he brings that element of toughness, etc.

As a Bruins fan, this pick is playing with house money, so it's not the end of the world if one of these guys doesn't slip. Despite reports to the contrary, Seguin is going to be a really good NHLer, Jared Knight is probably going to be a solid 2nd/3rd liner, so as long as this pick isn't a total bust then it's hard to get upset with it. But all it takes is one GM to covet a different guy to alter the top 9. Who knows?
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
4,032
32
You could be right, however it only takes one team to like a player to take him higher than the consensus. We'll see. USNTDP and U.S. High School players always begin their rise this time of year anyway.

Good points. Just talked to a highly respected scout who says Miller may go in the 20-30 range - he personally doesn't have him there, but some teams might. He also suggested Biggs may go top 15..not that he has him ranked that high, but there are teams who like his pro-style game and size even if his skill isn't high end.

I just asked Bob Mac about JT Miller - he say he got no consideration for Miller as a top ten guy in his last survey of NHL scouts - he had him ranked 28th in his mid terms. He said he'll do his final survey in a month's time or so.

That's not to say his rankings won't change - Miller's performance at the U-18's couldn't have hurt. As I said, I liked what I saw, and on initial impression thought he may be a first-round candidate. Not a top ten or top 15 guy, but someone who could vie for a top 25 spot.

Things are indeed wide open after the top 20 or so - I think you'll find that most teams have 20 guys that will be in most everyone's top 30 lists, but after that it's pretty random.

In no particular order -

Nugent-Hopkins
Larsson
Landeskog
Hamilton
Huberdeau
Couturier
R. Murphy
Strome
Brodin
Siemens
Beaulieu
Zibanejad
Jensen
Bartschi
Jenner
Armia
Puempel
Biggs
Saad
Rattie



I think you'll find that most teams have those 20 prospects ranked in their top 30 - maybe one or two teams is concerned about Jenner's skating and leaves him out of the first, but I'd be surprised if there are many....he's a warrior.

Then there are players like Oleksiak, Murphy, Klefbom and Scheifele who may go top 20..I know a team or two that thinks Scheifele might be top 15, and Klefbom is gaining steam. McNeill is another who is highly touted in some circles and might be a top 20 consideration by teams not worried about his timidity.

Miller has his work cut out for him cracking the top 20 I think - I can't work him into my top 25 either at this point despite his solid U-18 - I am going to end up ranking him somewhere in the 25 to 35 range I would suspect. You have to be careful with the guys you see at the end of the year..that they don't overly influence your rankings thanks to one strong tournament. A couple of years ago I ended up overrating Kenny Ryan based on his season-ending performance at the U-18's for instance..ended up putting him in the top 30 when he wasn't deserving of it based on his talent projection... I put too much value in performance instead of projection.

Not that Miller hasn't played well before this, but the general consensus most of the year from my sources were that he wasn't a first-round prospect before the U-18's.

This year's draft is fairly deep thanks to an unusually strong OHL crop. If Miller ends up in my top 30 odds are that he will be replacing a solid OHL prospect. Right now I have 18 OHLers in my top 40, and have been dropping out players some scouts think are top 30 guys like Rakell and Prince to make room for Klefbom and Murphy.

I think it's a pretty good year to have an extra second round pick. You may end up with three players in your top 25. A team like Ottawa may end up with four or five players in their top 25...
 

Rabid Ranger

2 is better than one
Feb 27, 2002
31,061
11,075
Murica
Thanks for the insight, although as I said before USNTDP and U.S. High School players tend to rise at this time of year as they get more exposure. I'm not saying a guy like Miller is a necessarily a better pro-prospect than some of the CHL guys, but without the "name" he and the rest of his teammates can be marginalized a bit. As for your list, I think the bigger omission might be Noesen. He doesn't seem to get much love even though he has a very pro-friendly game.
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
4,032
32
Thanks for the insight, although IMO a bigger miss is no Noesen.

I think Noesen is quite underrated....he's in my top 30...he's not one of the OHLers I dropped. :) I'm surprised that some teams don't like him in the first round....I've had more than one debate with one head scout in particular....his skating concerns some...I think it will come around.
 

Grant McCagg

@duhduhduh
Dec 13, 2010
4,032
32
The USNDTP team certainly gets looked at beforehand...certainly as much as Europeans by the head scouts....but yes there are players in the USHL in particular that get more looks at this time of year as they are still playing.

In the USNDTP's case...more so than exposure.... I think there is always that tendency to overrate or underrate the players you see at the end of the year as they leave your final impression. The key is to find the proper balance.

Overexposure in the CHL can both help and hurt you. :)
 

boredmale

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Jul 13, 2005
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I think Noesen is quite underrated....he's in my top 30...he's not one of the OHLers I dropped. :) I'm surprised that some teams don't like him in the first round....I've had more than one debate with one head scout in particular....his skating concerns some...I think it will come around.

Just curious, is Stromes stock dropping slightly(although still top 8) with an average playoffs?
 

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