Their is a 1st tier=ERIK JOHNSON =clear #1 BPA...
Their is a 2nd tier --and I'm not certain you can really determine the order of ranking between Kessel,Toews,Staal Backstrom and Little--I would put Mueller,Frolik and Brassard in a 3rd tier with Nigel Williams...that is how I see a top ten...
I have gone through the arguments before: Kessel gets the majority of his points playing on a powerfull PP unit with Potulny and Irmen at Minnesota--5x5 he hasn't dominated--nor does his shooting % excite --one expected more goals from him --sure,he's piled on assists but look who he plays with on that PP unit--one wonders how many goals Towes would have if he played on that loaded PP unit in Minnesota instead of Kessel...there are the other issues too with Kessel--size,indivdual play vs team concept,defensive issues when playing better competion...
Toews--looks more like a goal scorer with his shot than a creative assist guy--may be a better winger/finisher than centre for that reason--he was behind Kessel in development but some scouts would take himahead of Kessel now..
Staal-the young baby of the draft--least developed but already 6'4 215 and stronger than brother Eric was at the same age--his stats show a big improvement over last year-and he should improve next year to 90+ pts...by the time he is 19 he could just dominate the OHL ..so he may (IF HE DEVELOPS AS PROJECTED) have more upside than any of the forwards in this draft..the downside is that if he doesn't progress and figure out the game better--then he may be just a big third liner at the NHL level--so still raw and a work in progress..
Backstrom--the most mature and advanced of any forward in this draft;good in lots of areas --a very safe pick for a first or second line centre...he looked very creative at the WJHC,and conversely his shooting % of 15% is very good playing against the Swedish pros in the SEL...His diving to block a shot on the PK said waves about what an effort he gives and what a team player he is--this in contrast to Kessel's quiiting on a play and not attempting to come back and check when he was caught deep in the offensive zone and the opposition started back in
transition.So no "character" question about Backstro--but there is about Kessel...
Mueller --also a baby for the draft as a late 18 birthday--so may earn more projection points--HOWEVEr he failed to impress me any at the WJHC and at the Top Prospects Game--I must put him only into the third tier of the top ten...
Little--I was not that impressed with him upto this year--but on closer observation I realize he is a player who will always get his points...just a natural points getter..probably has the best sniping shot of any of the forwards in this draft...he is actually bigger (at 195lbs) than Kessel --but neither is that physical ..he has had 3 successive years in the OHL where he has put up the goals and this year he has been even more creative with the assists..he is a natural sniper and will get multiple point nights often..but because these plays happen bang bang-you don't think he's doing much out there at other times in the game...still a CERTAIN "EFFECTIVE" offesive points whiz...you cannot ignore such effectiveness...he belongs in with the 2nd tier because nobody can guarantee which of them wil be the best points guy of the bunch --but there is no reason why Little can't be that guy...he's probably under-rated on most lists..some team is going to get a good value with him ...
Frolik--somehow he has failed to deliver the promise thrust on him 2 years ago when he was crowned a Jewel of this draft crop right up there with Kessel...He still may turn out ok--but I think hes dropped to the bottom half of the top ten on several ranking lists now and certainly on my radar..I think he belongs on the third tier now...
Williams may go 7-10 given his size and should a team need to deepen its D-men prospects base...but I would be shocked if he is picked higher..
I think one has to do this hypothetical: How many points do you think Bryan Little would have if he were a freshman at Minnesota and given the PP time with their loaded team? If you think he couldn't do what Kessel has done by even 3/4 --then there is a legitimate "gap" between them--if you think he would have done about the same --then they should be ranked nearly the same--either Little upgraded or Kessel downgraded ...if you think Little would have done much better--then switch them in your rankings from the 'consensus" views...
I just do not think Kessel is head and shoulders above the other guys in tier two --for the reasons I've expounded. That doesn't mean he isn't a fine prospect--but I think teams will be deluding themselves if they see much of a "gap" in the talent/effectiveness level btween Kessel,Toews,Staal,Backstrom and Little for various different reasons...it will be a crap shoot!
