Red Wings Prospect Tracker - Part VII

[Laser Rayzor]

For me if a guy is putting up 80 points against junior players and the other guy is putting up 40 points in a pro league I rate the other guy higher even though the first guy may have more upside. Once he starts playing pro he then can leap right to number 1 if he proves it.

Just me I guess. I like to see prospects prove it against tougher competiion that is closer to what they will see in the NHL. Helps me keep my expectations in check while their still developing as teenagers.

Mitch Callahan is on pace for 43 points in the AHL would you really consider him a better prospect than Mantha?

I agree with your argument but to me it's important to find a middle ground, i.e. RWC may be too focused on potential (having Mantha over Jurco and Mrazek) while you may be under valuing potential (if you would in fact rank Cally higher than Mantha)
Just my $0.02

 

[probertrules24]

Mitch Callahan is on pace for 43 points in the AHL would you really consider him a better prospect than Mantha?

I agree with your argument but to me it's important to find a middle ground, i.e. RWC may be too focused on potential (having Mantha over Jurco and Mrazek) while you may be under valuing potential (if you would in fact rank Cally higher than Mantha)
Just my $0.02

Today I might. The moment Mantha starts in GR he may end up shooting past everybody. I guess I have a different stance then many that it means more putting up points against other men. I'm not trying to say everybody else isn't welcome to their opinions or ranking system. I guess I've seen to many guys never really pan out and it worries me to put to much hype on a guy.

I should also add that I don't believe Callahan is a better prospect then Mantha but that he is higher in the rankings today.

 

[Laser Rayzor]

Today I might. The moment Mantha starts in GR he may end up shooting past everybody. I guess I have a different stance then many that it means more putting up points against other men. I'm not trying to say everybody else isn't welcome to their opinions or ranking system. I guess I've seen to many guys never really pan out and it worries me to put to much hype on a guy.

Fair enough

 

[WesNichols14]

looking at a few different articles that give NHL equivalents these are how a few of Our top prospects would be doing this year.

these were the most recent ones I could find.
AHL .55 QMJHL .29 WHL .30 OHL .30 SEL .78 Most were from shortly after the Draft.

This is not a perfect science since players will be in different roles than where they are currently playing and the NHL playing style will help some and hurt others. Sheahan for example seems to be much better suited for the NHL than he is for the AHL.

I basically took there converted their goals and assist to their average per game and multiplied that times the amount of games the Wings have played this year (52) and then multiplied that by the equivalent.

Mantha's points would have been found by 85/39*52*0.29 = just under 33
I did this with goals and assist.

Mantha 16-17-33
Jurco 12-17-29
Jarnkrok 7-8-15
Sheahan 8-10-18
Ouellet 3-6-9
Sproul 5-10-15
Backman 4-12-16
Marchenko 1-11-12
Athanasiou 11-12-23
Glendening 8-11-19
Ferraro 8-9-17
Pulkkinen 11-13-24
Almquist 1-20-21
Janmark 19-11-30
Callahan 11-5-16

 

[Brandel*]

Can't say I agree with these. I love Mantha and think he will be good but no way he sniffs the #1 spot for me. Not this year. These rankings look like they way to heavy on projections and not where the players are in their development.

Isn't that what prospect rankings are? I look at them like their value. Mantha is worth more than any of our prospects.

 

[newfy]

Today I might. The moment Mantha starts in GR he may end up shooting past everybody. I guess I have a different stance then many that it means more putting up points against other men. I'm not trying to say everybody else isn't welcome to their opinions or ranking system. I guess I've seen to many guys never really pan out and it worries me to put to much hype on a guy.

I should also add that I don't believe Callahan is a better prospect then Mantha but that he is higher in the rankings today.

I agre you have to balance readiness and potential but Mantha is the clear number one. After that I would have Mrazek and Jurco as 2 and 3 in each order. After those few though I'm not sure I agree with RWC.

Bottom line is, the wings havent had a prospect dominate a league like Mantha has in as long as I've been alive. Hes also got the size and dominated at the WJC.

 

[Boomhower]

Not Sure how Jarnkrok is ahead of players like Oullette, Sproul and Sheahan. These rankings are based on NHL potential, not SHL potential, correct?

 

[Kevin Forbes]

Not sure how many of you can follow French, but RDS did a report on Philippe Hudon tonight with a second piece due to air tomorrow.

http://www.rds.ca/vidéos/la-situation-bien-particulière-de-philippe-hudon-1re-partie-3.922998

It's primarily about his life with OCD and talking about how it manifests itself. Primarily with a focus on precision and order and having things "just so".
There's some footage of him taping his stick and also a scene where the reporter adjusts the laces on his skates hanging in his stall and though Hudon laughs it off a bit, he soon reaches over to put them back as they were.

Interesting stuff.

 

[ChadS]

McNulty 1+1 last night. Now up to 12+17=29 in 47 games vs last year's 8+7=15 in 52 games.

 

[Zorin]

What I love is that almost everybody in the Top-20 would have been undisputed No.1 every year between 1995 and, say, 2008 with the exception of Fischer, Zetterberg and Datsyuk. (And the latter even very short time, he came from a "fringe prospect" to NHL-Player in pretty short order.)

Hell, we had times that freaking Paul Ballantine was clear number one! Compare that to the potential of a Jensen who is not even rated!! Backmann, Janmark or Marchenko could even have given Zetterberg a run for his money for some time.

Just amazing prospect depth!

 

[Xvash2]

What I love is that almost everybody in the Top-20 would have been undisputed No.1 every year between 1995 and, say, 2008 with the exception of Fischer, Zetterberg and Datsyuk. (And the latter even very short time, he came from a "fringe prospect" to NHL-Player in pretty short order.)

Hell, we had times that freaking Paul Ballantine was clear number one! Compare that to the potential of a Jensen who is not even rated!! Backmann, Janmark or Marchenko could even have given Zetterberg a run for his money for some time.

Just amazing prospect depth!

The most important thing is one of them become that Zetterberg-level player, in some capacity at least.

 

[Henkka]

What I love is that almost everybody in the Top-20 would have been undisputed No.1 every year between 1995 and, say, 2008 with the exception of Fischer, Zetterberg and Datsyuk. (And the latter even very short time, he came from a "fringe prospect" to NHL-Player in pretty short order.)

Hell, we had times that freaking Paul Ballantine was clear number one! Compare that to the potential of a Jensen who is not even rated!! Backmann, Janmark or Marchenko could even have given Zetterberg a run for his money for some time.

Just amazing prospect depth!

Yeah, half of the guys can bust/ruin career for injuries and we still get many quality players.

The future is good in Hockeytown.

 

[drw02]

The way I see it

1. Mantha
2. Mrazek
3. Jurco
4. Sheahan
5. Sproul
6. Jarnkrok
7. Ouellet
8. Pulkkinen
9. Marchenko
10. Athanasiou
11. Backman
12. Janmark
13. Callahan
14. Ferraro
15. Frk
16. Paterson
17. Jensen
18. Almquist
19. Nastasiuk
20. Bertuzzi

 

[Kronwalled55]

I don't know how anyone can say that Mantha isn't the consensus #1. The numbers he is currently putting up are #1 overall-esque. He was good in the WJC too. Question his work ethic, but simply put he will give you points.

In this rare occasion, I think it's fair to "overhype" him.

 

[SimplySolace]

I don't know how anyone can say that Mantha isn't the consensus #1. The numbers he is currently putting up are #1 overall-esque. He was good in the WJC too. Question his work ethic, but simply put he will give you points.

I no longer question his work ethic after the WJC's

 

[probertrules24]

I don't know how anyone can say that Mantha isn't the consensus #1. The numbers he is currently putting up are #1 overall-esque. He was good in the WJC too. Question his work ethic, but simply put he will give you points.

In this rare occasion, I think it's fair to "overhype" him.

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not questioning his talent or work ethic at all. I believe he's a fantastic prospect. I have no problem calling him the #1 junior prospect. Problem I see putting him over guys like Jurco, Mrazek, ect is they are already doing it at the pro level.

Next year I'm sure he will shoot right to number one on my list.

 

[jaster]

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I put Mrazek at #1. Mantha's exciting, no question, but he's not a pro yet, and he doesn't have a complete game, so he has his holes in terms of ranking him. I can easily see him cementing the #1 spot by mid-season next year, but he's not there yet.

 

[jaster]

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not questioning his talent or work ethic at all. I believe he's a fantastic prospect. I have no problem calling him the #1 junior prospect. Problem I see putting him over guys like Jurco, Mrazek, ect is they are already doing it at the pro level.

Next year I'm sure he will shoot right to number one on my list.

I tend to agree with this reasoning in general. However, in the case of Mantha vs Jurco, I can see it going either way. Jurco has already made it to the NHL level, made all the necessary transitions, and acquitted himself well, but on the other hand Mantha has done so much more at the same age, at the junior level, as Jurco did. It's hard not to see Mantha having at least as much success as Jurco at the pro level at this point.

 

[newfy]

I tend to agree with this reasoning in general. However, in the case of Mantha vs Jurco, I can see it going either way. Jurco has already made it to the NHL level, made all the necessary transitions, and acquitted himself well, but on the other hand Mantha has done so much more at the same age, at the junior level, as Jurco did. It's hard not to see Mantha having at least as much success as Jurco at the pro level at this point.

The one thing that I think is unerrated is how much of a difference Mantha made for his team. He was supposed to get traded at the dfeadline because goign into the year his team looked like bottom dwellers. He literally threw the team on his back.

Jurco had great junior numbers but was like the 3rd or fourth best player on his team alone. The size and numbers are just too great to not put him at number 1

 

[Kronwalled55]

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not questioning his talent or work ethic at all. I believe he's a fantastic prospect. I have no problem calling him the #1 junior prospect. Problem I see putting him over guys like Jurco, Mrazek, ect is they are already doing it at the pro level.

Next year I'm sure he will shoot right to number one on my list.

I wasn't picking on you in particular. I've just read it a few times over here.

I see your angle though. Mrazek is NHL ready right now, and Mantha likely isn't. Jurco and Sheahan are probably ready too.

 

[probertrules24]

I wasn't picking on you in particular. I've just read it a few times over here.

I see your angle though. Mrazek is NHL ready right now, and Mantha likely isn't. Jurco and Sheahan are probably ready too.

That's pretty much how I look at the rankings. If Babcock was going to add a player today, position is irrelevant who would I be. With over sea's players I tend to think of them one step behind guys in GR obviously certain players over sea's are still a head just because of differences in talent. A guy like Mantha who is destroying his league is the wrinkle in my formula. I'd still put him outside the top 5 though.

 

[malkinfan]

Telyakov signed in Toledo. Unofficial flyer on the guy, at 6'9 why not? Also I guess he worked out for a couple months in the summer in Detroit.

 

[Brandel*]

That's pretty much how I look at the rankings. If Babcock was going to add a player today, position is irrelevant who would I be. With over sea's players I tend to think of them one step behind guys in GR obviously certain players over sea's are still a head just because of differences in talent. A guy like Mantha who is destroying his league is the wrinkle in my formula. I'd still put him outside the top 5 though.

MOD

I understand you value playing pro but that is outrageous in every sense of the word. How can you undervalue a guy so much just because he is ineligible to play pro? Where would you put Mackinnon if he were putting up similar numbers in the Q?

Please list the guys you'd rather have as prospects than Mantha and then tell me you wouldn't trade any of those guys for Mantha.

 

[SoupNazi]

Telyakov signed in Toledo. Unofficial flyer on the guy, at 6'9 why not? Also I guess he worked out for a couple months in the summer in Detroit.

Elite Prospects has him listed at 6'9 and 216 pounds. Talk about skinny!

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Telyakov signed in Toledo. Unofficial flyer on the guy, at 6'9 why not? Also I guess he worked out for a couple months in the summer in Detroit.

IIRC he was at the past 2 summer camps the Wings had. Nothing wrong with getting some depth & you never know with someone that big you may be able to develop a Hal Gill out of him. Now all we need is that Center, who's name escapes me right now, and we'll be set with out Russian contingent.