Red Wings current Veteran contracts

[Bench]

It irks me Abdelkader received far more relative compensation than a far better player at his role: Tomas Holmstrom. At his peak salary, Holmstrom took 3.79% of the cap. Abdelkader this year will be taking 5.34%. And Abby will need to score 20 goals a year for the next 6.5 years to match Holmstroms totals.

 

[BinCookin]

Great Study Henkka.

People just don't appreciate the work, in comparison to nit pick the method. (yes there are holes in any method).

Enjoyed the read.

 

[Inspiration]

It irks me Abdelkader received far more relative compensation than a far better player at his role: Tomas Holmstrom. At his peak salary, Holmstrom took 3.79% of the cap. Abdelkader this year will be taking 5.34%. And Abby will need to score 20 goals a year for the next 6.5 years to match Holmstroms totals.

I love Holmstrom, but is it really fair to compare him with Abdelkader? Holmstrom's two most common linemates in his thirties were Datsyuk and Zetterberg in their respective primes. Of course his production was great. Abdelkader scoring, say, 15 goals next year playing with Helm and Nielsen and minimal power play minutes (I would assume if Rasmussen makes the team he would take Abdelkader's net-front role) is probably just as impressive as Holmstrom scoring 25 with Datsyuk, Zetterberg and ample PP1 minutes on stacked teams.

For the record, I think Holmstrom is a better player than Abdelkader, but merely comparing their production is tough given how different their situations are/were.

 

[ricky0034]

I have a really hard time taking anything that compares the Abdelkader and Williams contracts and comes away with the conclusion that "Abdelkader is underpaid" seriously


like....damn sanity check your methods

 

[jkutswings]

I love Holmstrom, but is it really fair to compare him with Abdelkader? Holmstrom's two most common linemates in his thirties were Datsyuk and Zetterberg in their respective primes. Of course his production was great. Abdelkader scoring, say, 15 goals next year playing with Helm and Nielsen and minimal power play minutes (I would assume if Rasmussen makes the team he would take Abdelkader's net-front role) is probably just as impressive as Holmstrom scoring 25 with Datsyuk, Zetterberg and ample PP1 minutes on stacked teams.

For the record, I think Holmstrom is a better player than Abdelkader, but merely comparing their production is tough given how different their situations are/were.

But even if you normalize the production comparison, Homer never got as big a percent of the cap, let alone for so many years in the twilight of his career.

 

[Henkka]

But even if you normalize the production comparison, Homer never got as big a percent of the cap, let alone for so many years in the twilight of his career.

Those early cap years aren't comparable. My god you guys try to be smartasses.

Every team is paying nowadays more equally to their middle6 players, that it was with 39M cap.

 

[Henkka]

I have a really hard time taking anything that compares the Abdelkader and Williams contracts and comes away with the conclusion that "Abdelkader is underpaid" seriously

like....damn sanity check your methods

Feel free to do your own study.

 

[Winger98]

A lot of work into the original post and it's appreciated, but I also think it's a bit of missing the forest for the trees. None of the contracts in and of themselves, in a vacuum, are out and out brutal. Gator's is the closest entirely because there is still five years on the thing including this upcoming season. But it's not like we threw a big deal at Jeff Finger or Brett Lebda expecting them to solidify our blueline.

At the same time, these deals aren't in a vacuum and can't be taken alone because they are part of a larger picture. Which has been kicked around ad nauseam.

 

[Oddbob]

If you’re talking about Wilson he got over 5 million.
Wait, you’re talking about Abby? Yeah 4,25 for a physical 35-40 point player is pretty good.

Problem is, that Abby hasn't really been that physical in the past year or so. When he was in the lineup in the past, he had an edge to his game, but recently he is basically invisible most nights.

 

[marcmadsen]

To me, the Abdelkader deal was more about term than AAV. I think the past few years he has been reasonably worth the AAV he has carried. I don't know if that will be the case in years 5, 6, or 7 of the deal. I hope it is, but time will tell

The study was interesting. I don't know that I think it covers the full range of factors that go into a player-to-player relative ranking assessment but it had some merit. I think if you are only going to consider those three factors, you should be prefacing the final assessment as saying in terms of TOI, PPG etc. so and so is the blank best forward amongst qualified study participants.

The biggest factor I think this study kind of oversees is that it is purely a relative comparison. Demonstrating the Abdelkader's contract isn't bad in comparison to the rest of the league doesn't in of itself prove that the contract isn't bad. When you include all of the outliers (good and bad) across the league it factors into how you are defining a good or bad contract. Whereas I don't think most people when looking at one individual contract, assess how good a contract is strictly in comparison to the rest of the league. If every other team in the league were handing out huge AAVs and max term to average players would you want the DRW to do the same? If the answer is yes, then you'd probably argue that it's an acceptable practice because other teams are doing it. But don't forget, every year there are 30 teams who don't win the SC. So just because a lot of other teams do something, doesn't mean it's the right way to go (hence past lockouts for UFA overspending).

To me, assessing ABdelkdaer's contract as good or bad simply by comparing it to all other forward contracts that meet the initially criteria (200+ games etc.) only tells you what you think of the contract relative to those other contracts. If anything, if you're of the opinion Abdelkader's contract is bad, this study suggests that the average contract given out these players is on the wrong side of good.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I'm fine with the 3 basis' to get an average ranking, but using the corresponding ranked AAV forward to get "market value" is very misleading.

Heaven forbid any of our forwards end with an average rank of 25th, and Bobby Freaking Ryan is the comparable, when 24th is Mark Stone and 26th is David Krejci.

Are we to assume Bobby Freaking Ryan is actually between those two?

IMO, need another way of getting a comparable. You average the last 4 years, but the current AAV's of these Wings players contracts range from Vanek's 1 year deal all the way to Z's 12 year deal. Maybe averaging the players salaries from the past 4 years and getting a new AAV would be better.

I do give you an A+ for effort.

 

[dragonballgtz]

My conspiracy, I said it here or on letsgowings, is Holland already knew the team was screwed so he overpaid and gave up term to vets to keep them around.

 

[Henkka]

Why things have to be a conspiracy? Why it can't just be different thinking or seeings things deeper?

What does some contract term being conspiracy even mean? What would have been different with shorter contract?

 

[SCD]

Problem is, that Abby hasn't really been that physical in the past year or so. When he was in the lineup in the past, he had an edge to his game, but recently he is basically invisible most nights.

Sometimes having your face broken will do that to a player.

 

[newfy]

. Gator will almost certainly never have another 40+ point season for the rest of his career.

Thats a pretty bold statement. He'll likely hover right around that mark for a few years. Its been mentioned but last year he was on pace for 38 with the teams offense being at its absolute worst. Let Mantha, Larkin and Bertuzzi develop a bit more and add Zadina to the mix and he'll be back scoring a bit more.

The term for Abbys contract isnt good. But its also hard to find players capable of putting up 40 points and playing physical/fighting the odd time. His actual cap hit isnt that bad though and by the end of his contract the cap will rise enough that it doesnt matter. The last couple years woulda been nice to not include on their but that cap hit is fine for the next 3 years. Abdelkader has developed into a decent hockey player

Yeah he got about 2 minutes less "effective" (EV+PP) icetime this year than he did when he got 40+, and still he was on pace for 38 points. I'm not going to bother spelling it out for you.

Yeah Abby is competitive and works hard. I'm sure the intangibles helped him get that contract, I dont love it but I definitely dont think its the worst in the league.

I think Helms is noticeably worse than Abbys, even if the term is shorter

 

[ThankGord]

Abby's contract is a little rough but I think he brings something to the table that's not easy to come by. He'll step up and defend the less physical guys and throw hits while not being a complete waste in the offensive zone. I think it's similar to why Tom Wilson got a shocker of a contract.

As the cap rises his contract will look like less of an issue if he stays around 30 points (I think he can break 40 again).

 

[Winger98]

Thats a pretty bold statement. He'll likely hover right around that mark for a few years. Its been mentioned but last year he was on pace for 38 with the teams offense being at its absolute worst. Let Mantha, Larkin and Bertuzzi develop a bit more and add Zadina to the mix and he'll be back scoring a bit more.

Gator also had 18 points and -13 over his last 50 games last season. Maybe it's just a season averaging out for a guy, or are we going to see him resembling more the guy from the first 25 games last year (17 points, +2) or the guy from his last 50?

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

The problem with Abdelkader's contract has never been the cap hit but the length.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Problem is, that Abby hasn't really been that physical in the past year or so. When he was in the lineup in the past, he had an edge to his game, but recently he is basically invisible most nights.

He still led our team in hits by like ~40 more than anyone else. Even the prior year missing 20 games he was 2nd on the team.

Problem is people see physicality as laying huge hits, when the physical presence of simply finishing checks on a regular basis is probably more valuable, and Abby does that. If you look at the players around the league that have more hits than Abby, not too many stand out as superior actual hockey players.

 

[jkutswings]

He still led our team in hits by like ~40 more than anyone else. Even the prior year missing 20 games he was 2nd on the team.

Problem is people see physicality as laying huge hits, when the physical presence of simply finishing checks on a regular basis is probably more valuable, and Abby does that. If you look at the players around the league that have more hits than Abby, not too many stand out as superior actual hockey players.

And with each passing year, he will likely finish a few less checks, and the chance for injury increases. That style of play does not age well.

For the next couple years, Justin Abdelkader might be a tolerable cap hit with some halfway decent contributions, but by the last 2-3 years of the deal, I expect him to be a shell of a player that adds nothing but dead money.

 

[newfy]

Gator also had 18 points and -13 over his last 50 games last season. Maybe it's just a season averaging out for a guy, or are we going to see him resembling more the guy from the first 25 games last year (17 points, +2) or the guy from his last 50?

Well the whole team took a dive the last bit of the season, I expect it averages out. Hes not skilled enough to give you consistent offensive output but he'll get his points one way or the other. He was carrying more than his fair share of the load for the first bit of the season. I'm sure we'll see a mixture of both and see him right around 40 points again next year


Also, should mention his contract looks too long but depending on who the new GM is, we should see Martin gone potentially and wont see as many bad contracts. Abbys looks bad but if Ericcson, DDK, Zetterberg, and Kronwallas money are all off the books his contract wont really matter much. Its easy to work around a contract for a couple seasons, its having all these guys left over from years of competing for the cup on their last legs thats hurting Detroit

 

[Winger98]

Well the whole team took a dive the last bit of the season, I expect it averages out. Hes not skilled enough to give you consistent offensive output but he'll get his points one way or the other. He was carrying more than his fair share of the load for the first bit of the season. I'm sure we'll see a mixture of both and see him right around 40 points again next year

Also, should mention his contract looks too long but depending on who the new GM is, we should see Martin gone potentially and wont see as many bad contracts. Abbys looks bad but if Ericcson, DDK, Zetterberg, and Kronwallas money are all off the books his contract wont really matter much. Its easy to work around a contract for a couple seasons, its having all these guys left over from years of competing for the cup on their last legs thats hurting Detroit

Fair enough. I've never really been sold on Gator's offensive game, so I'm a bit more pessimistic on that front.

With his contract, I hate the length. But I hate more that we didn't move him for assets when we had the chance. GMs clearly love guys like Gator, and for good reasons, but we really could have used the extra 1st I think he would have pulled in a trade. Same with Helm. Agree entirely about how it's us having a bunch of these guys that kills us. Add Nielsen to that list, too, imo, though he wasn't one of the Cup guys. At some point, they needed to look at what they had and realized that just because we could make it work with the cap, that didn't mean we should have.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I don't understand the point of trying to win the argument that Abdelkader is a 40 point player, considering he is being paid for 7 years, is on the wrong side of 30, and plays the type of game that makes him more likely to regress quickly.

Woo, he can score 40 points, maybe. That doesn't at all justify the term of his deal.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Why things have to be a conspiracy?

Because it's makes it funnier to talk about.lol

I mean really at the end of the day they were bad contracts due to term. To me Holland told them, hey we might not win a lot during your contract but I will give you term and overpay a bit to keep you around and lighten up the locker room.

 

[Oddbob]

He still led our team in hits by like ~40 more than anyone else. Even the prior year missing 20 games he was 2nd on the team.

Problem is people see physicality as laying huge hits, when the physical presence of simply finishing checks on a regular basis is probably more valuable, and Abby does that. If you look at the players around the league that have more hits than Abby, not too many stand out as superior actual hockey players.

Leading our team in hits isn't hard though, as we don't really have physical players other than Witkowski and he didn't play a whole lot. Also it isn't just about hits, he hardly ever does anything to insert himself physically, in scrambles, net front, etc. He also use to stand up for teammates more often,we don't see it that much anymore. The other thing, is the majority of his pts are assists where he just touched the puck rather than he made a nice play to create a goal.