Red Wings current Veteran contracts

[Henkka]

Just did a simple study. It started from seeing discussion everywhere, how Justin Abdelkader’s contract is supposed to be the ultimate worst in made NHL.

Pretty much I did have a different gut feeling.

So here we go, a caphit comparison for other NHL forwards, with some simple statistics. 4-season total points, Points/game and AVG Ice-time data vs. caphits.

I like the 4-season data, because it cuts lucky seasons off as well as it evens out some unlucky or injury riddled seasons. 1 season matters only 25% in the big picture.

I did took our all our veteran forwards on the study. Kids like Larkin and Mantha are excluded, because they don’t have the 4-season data and rookie seasons are usually weak. It’s more of vets in prime. Limits for stat categories were +200 games. Also included Tatar on the study.

Henrik Zetterberg
- Caphit 6.083M
- 45th highest forward Caphit in NHL

- 30th in 4-season Total points (240 points)
- 44th in 4-season Points/Game (0.74)
- 21st forward in TOT Ice-time (19:26)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~32nd best forward in NHL.

32nd highest forward Caphit in NHL is Nicklas Bäckström with 6.7M.

- Compared to Bäckström caphit, Zetterberg is underpaid by 617k.
- Relative value, his Caphit (6.083M/6.7M) is 90.8% of what he is really worth.


Tomas Tatar
- Caphit 5.3M
- 92nd highest forward Caphit in NHL

- 96th in 4-season Total points (181 points)
- 128th in 4-season Points/Game (0.55)
- 150th forward in TOT Ice-time (16:02)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~125th best forward in NHL.

125th highest forward Caphit in NHL is Chris Kreider with 4.625M.

- Compared to Kreider caphit, Tatar is overpaid by 675k.
- Relative value, his Caphit (5.3M/4.625M) is 114.6% of what he is really worth.


Frans Nielsen
- Caphit 5.25M
- 99th highest forward Caphit in NHL

- 111th in 4-season Total points (169 points)
- 137th in 4-season Points/Game (0.53)
- 114th forward in TOT Ice-time (16:50)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~121st best forward in NHL.

121th highest forward caphit in NHL is Gustav Nyquist with 4.75M.

- Compared to Nyquist caphit, Nielsen is overpaid by 500k.
- Relative value, his caphit (5.25M/4.75M) is 110.5% of what he is really worth.


Gustav Nyquist
- Caphit 4.75M
- 121st highest forward caphit in NHL

- 110th in 4-season Total points (185 points)
- 119th in 4-season Points/Game (0.57)
- 118th forward in TOT Ice-time (16:46)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~116th best forward in NHL.

116th highest forward Caphit in NHL is Elias Lindholm with 4.85M.

- Compared to Lindholm caphit, Nyquist is underpaid by 100k.
- Relative value, his caphit (4.75M/4.85M) is 97.9% of what he is really worth.


Justin Abdelkader
- Caphit 4.25M
- 139st highest forward caphit in NHL

- 143th in 4-season Total points (142 points)
- 157th in 4-season Points/Game (0.49)
- 91th forward in TOT Ice-time (17:26)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~131st best forward in NHL.

131th highest forward caphit in NHL is Justin Williams with 4.5M.

- Compared to Williams caphit, Abdelkader is underpaid by 250k.
- Relative value, his caphit (4.25M/4.5M) is 94.4% of what he is really worth.


Darren Helm
- Caphit 3.85M
- 158th highest forward caphit in NHL

- 193rd in 4-season Total points (107 points)
- 200th in 4-season Points/Game (0.39)
- 170th forward in TOT Ice-time (15:28)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~188th best forward in NHL.

188th highest forward caphit in NHL is Antoine Roussel with 3.0M.

- Compared to Roussel caphit, Helm is overpaid by 850k.
- Relative value, his caphit (3.85M/3.0M) is 128.3% of what he is really worth.

Tomas Vanek
- Caphit 3.0M
- 191st highest forward Caphit in NHL

- 71st in 4-season Total points (197 points)
- 77th in 4-season Points/Game (0.65)
- 183rd forward in TOT Ice-time (15:06)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~111st best forward in NHL.

111st highest forward Caphit in NHL is Matt Moulson with 5.0M.

- Compared to Moulson caphit, Vanek is underpaid by 2.0M.
- Relative value, his caphit (3.0M/5.0M) is 60% of what he is really worth.

Luke Glendening
- Caphit 1.8M
- 234th highest forward Caphit in NHL

- 249th in 4-season Total points (72 points)
- 265th in 4-season Points/Game (0.24)
- 227th forward in TOT Ice-time (13:54)

These three statistical ranks give on average ~247th best forward in NHL.

247th highest forward caphit in NHL is Brett connolly with 1.5M.

- Compared to Connolly caphit, Glendening is overpaid by 300k.
- Relative value, his caphit (1.8M/1.5M) is 120% of what he is really worth.

Biggest overpayments
1. Helm – 850k
2. Tatar – 675k
3. Nielsen – 500k
4. Glendening – 300k
Total 2.325M

Underpaid guys
1. Vanek – 2M
2. Zetterberg – 617k
3. Abdelkader – 250k
4. Nyquist – 100k
Total 2.967M

Biggest relative overpayment
1. Helm – 128.3%
2. Glendening – 120%
3. Tatar - 114.3%
4. Nielsen - 110.5%

Relative underpaid guys
1. Vanek – 60%
2. Zetterberg – 90.8%
3. Abdelkader – 94.4%
4. Nyquist – 97.9%


Final conclusion is, that I didn't find any kind of overpayment for Abdelkader. He has a market value contract, or little less before talking anything about his intangibles, leadership etc. Same happened on that Advanced stats study, Abdelkader looked much better than the consensus believes him to be.

Also, that Tatar-trade just seems to be great. Absolutely great. Holland did get rid of an overpaid scorer, which already has had difficulties to fit on SC contender's TOP4 lines. And Kenny got those nice draft picks of him and we got at least Veleno with them. And also, the message was the same when I did that another advanded stats -study, where Tatar was 10th best forward on our team on last season, with 2nd highest caphit. Negative value was thrown out for futures, great rebuilding.

Based on this study, our real worst forward contract is Darren Helm and second worst is Luke Glendening. At this summer, I also saw an article from The Athletic, where our 4th line was supposed to be one of the worst in NHL at last season. Helm and Glendening played there most.

When our kids start jumping in and we get rid of these two negative contracts, our team will be much better. In big picture, it just needs 4 quality kids. 2 to replace retiring Z and possibly traded Nyquist. Then another 2 to replace Helm and Glendning.

But you Abdelkader bashers, you have been barking on the wrong tree.

Click to read more...

 

[Jon Cusack]

I agree on the Tatar trade, Holland struck gold there and that NYI second could be in the 30’s as well. For Abdelkader it’s the 7 years which annoys people, myself included.

 

[FireBird71]

Not too worried about the contracts they have now..what worries me is the loads of Cap Space Holland has to work with next offseason...I have a feeling he’ll try to resign them all.

 

[Henkka]

Not too worried about the contracts they have now..what worries me is the loads of Cap Space Holland has to work with next offseason...I have a feeling he’ll try to resign them all.

Who are these "them"..?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Your logic is so flawed it hurts my brain. It purposefully ignores all context when discussing these contracts.

When was said contract given out?
How old was the player when said contract was given out?
What was the state of the roster at the time the contract was given out?
Could you reasonably expect the player to produce at a similar or better rate during the duration of his contract?

Let's look at Gator since it is the easiest to show how wrong you are.

You point to Justin Williams 4.5 million cap hit to highlight how he is underpaid. Williams is on a two year deal. Gator is entering year three of his seven year deal. They simply aren't comparable. Even if i humored you and ignored the term of Williams contract, Abdelkader's contract would still look atrocious. Williams is 36 and has produced 40+ points every year over the past five seasons. Gator will almost certainly never have another 40+ point season for the rest of his career.

I really have no clue why you try so hard to defend indefensible contracts.

 

[PullHard]

I think at first we were baffled by the AAV on the deal, but in reality it was always around market value for what he brings to the table

The hard part about his deal is that it isn't a hometown discount, and he also got a dramatically long contract

It would have been more favourable if he settled in around ~$3.5-3.75M giving the team a little bit more flexibility if he was gunning for term

But he got both

 

[Pavels Dog]

Cap hit was never the real issue on Abby's contract. It's a fair number for that type of player, and as evidenced by for example the Wilson contract Abby's cap hit is likely to look better in time as long as he doesn't decline too much. One just wishes it was 2 or 3 years shorter. Same deal with Nielsen essentially. Really like the guy, don't think the cap hit is crazy for a UFA guy, but the term would ideally have been a few years shorter.
Overall, none of our contracts are likely to hurt us much. Our flexibility will go way up in the coming offseasons, we're essentially past the worst already in terms of cap crunch.

Gator will almost certainly never have another 40+ point season for the rest of his career.

38 point pace last season.. yeah it seems insane to think he could get a couple of bounces and reach 40.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Cap hit was never the real issue on Abby's contract. It's a fair number for that type of player, and as evidenced by for example the Wilson contract Abby's cap hit is likely to look better in time as long as he doesn't decline too much. One just wishes it was 2 or 3 years shorter. Same deal with Nielsen essentially. Really like the guy, don't think the cap hit is crazy for a UFA guy, but the term would ideally have been a few years shorter.
Overall, none of our contracts are likely to hurt us much. Our flexibility will go way up in the coming offseasons, we're essentially past the worst already in terms of cap crunch.


38 point pace last season.. yeah it seems insane to think he could get a couple of bounces and reach 40.

It does when you realize that the only two seasons that Gator had 40+ point seasons was when he averaged 18:00 minutes of ice time per game while playing with much better players and he was on the right side of 30.

 

[FireBird71]

Who are these "them"..?

Everyone on the team that’s a free agent after the season

 

[Pavels Dog]

It does when you realize that the only two seasons that Gator had 40+ point seasons was when he averaged 18:00 minutes of ice time per game while playing with much better players and he was on the right side of 30.

Yeah he got about 2 minutes less "effective" (EV+PP) icetime this year than he did when he got 40+, and still he was on pace for 38 points. I'm not going to bother spelling it out for you.

 

[jkutswings]

Why exactly is TOI worth 33% of the grade? And without factoring usage? And, as already stated, why is AAV the only criteria, while ignoring term, or player age, or anything else?

This seems to not capture the entire picture.

 

[Henkka]

Why exactly is TOI worth 33% of the grade? And without factoring usage? And, as already stated, why is AAV the only criteria, while ignoring term, or player age, or anything else?

This seems to not capture the entire picture.

- Total points is quite a good factor. Also it takes injury proneness in account.
- Points per game is a good quality factor, but guys with small smaple-size can't shine here.
- Ice-Time is a good metric from special teams usage, coaches simple use best players most or they lose their jobs. And with IT factor the player is not determined just on points-scoring. There's more on hockey than that.

This combination, imo, will give a good big picture about forwards.

You can do a different study on your own ways, and I think the results wouldn't change very much.

BTW,

did the same for Milan Lucic and he did hit on the 5M ballpark. So guy is overpaid by 1M.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Yeah he got about 2 minutes less "effective" (EV+PP) icetime this year than he did when he got 40+, and still he was on pace for 38 points. I'm not going to bother spelling it out for you.

Yeah lot's of teams and players are on pace for lot's of stuff. Woulda coulda shoulda. Using on pace as an argument for Gator is pretty foolish when you look at his performance history and age. It becomes less and less likely that Gator will ever have another 40+ point season. It's why his contract is so horrendous. He was paid above market value when factoring in the ludicrous term on his contract and the entirety of the contract takes place during his 30's. There is literally no silver lining. It just gets worse and worse. Especially when you realize that he should not be playing in the Wings top six ever again. Assuming everyone is healthy.

 

[jkutswings]

Different coaches value different things in assigning ice time, and teams at different echelons within the league will naturally be doing different things more often.

Meaning, Detroit tends to lose games by having awful transition, multiple odd man rushes from giveaways, and poor overall creativity. So Blashill tends to prioritize players that are least likely to make a big defensive gaffe, regardless of how they fare in other facets of the game. That's why Ericsson led the team in overall TOI... But it doesn't mean he's the best player on the team. Similarly, just because Abdelkader doesn't regularly cough up the puck, and Blashill overplays him, that doesn't make his ice time a reasonable factor to help justify his deal.

 

[Snuggs]

I like a few of them but I'm really raising my eye brow on the Abdelkader thing like everyone else...

Also I hate the Abdelkader/Justin Williams comparison. Like, Williams has had a better more productive career by far when healthy. Abdelkaders best year is comparable to a Justin Williams average season. Not to mention age at this point.... One's 36 the other is 31 or 32.

Pretty interesting read overall though. Still think people have a right to not like the Vanek NTC that you didn't take into account, and the length of the Abdelkader deal for his age at the time of signing. Same with Helm.

Idk how to take the Glendenning thing, I really feel like he'd be a lot more valuable without Helm on this team basically clogging up his minutes. Nice effort enjoyed the read.

 

[Henkka]

I like a few of them but I'm really raising my eye brow on the Abdelkader thing like everyone else...

Also I hate the Abdelkader/Justin Williams comparison.

There was no comparison. Just a salary ballpark.

Some player just is 131th best player with these metrics.

And some player just has the 131st highest NHL caphit.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah lot's of teams and players are on pace for lot's of stuff. Woulda coulda shoulda. Using on pace as an argument for Gator is pretty foolish when you look at his performance history and age. It becomes less and less likely that Gator will ever have another 40+ point season. It's why his contract is so horrendous. He was paid above market value when factoring in the ludicrous term on his contract and the entirety of the contract takes place during his 30's. There is literally no silver lining. It just gets worse and worse. Especially when you realize that he should not be playing in the Wings top six ever again. Assuming everyone is healthy.

Except you are the one being foolish. His performance history indicates he can score 40+ points when healthy. His pace last season indicated he would get around 40 points if he played another 7 games. There's nothing so far indicating a decline in performance unless you base everything on 16-17 when he was clearly not healthy.
You are basically obsessing over a very minor decline in Abby's production from his best seasons, while 90% of the roster has seen bigger declines in their point production compared to a few years ago. Look at Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Dekeyser etc.

Abby's P/60:

17-18 - 1.44
15-16 - 1.34
14-15 - 1.52

Man, look at that huge dropoff.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

90% of Abby's production was from Datsyuk and Z. It's kind of the entire reason why his contract is a joke.

One is gone and the other has one foot in the grave.

Justin Abdelkader is not a 40+ point player without those two, and the Wings roster can no longer function with Gator continuing to play in the Wings top six.

 

[Pavels Dog]

90% of Abby's production was from Datsyuk and Z. It's kind of the entire reason why his contract is a joke.

One is gone and the other has one foot in the grave.

Justin Abdelkader is not a 40+ point player without those two, and the Wings roster can no longer function with Gator continuing to play in the Wings top six.

So explain his 17-18 production?
90% of 40 points is 36, subtract half of that and you're left with 18, subtract half of that and you're left with 9, 9 + the other 10% i.e. 4 points equals 13 points that Abby should be scoring now without Datsyuk and Z only being at half capacity... that leaves 22 points unaccounted for. Dats magic powers still impacting things? Z wearing the jerseys of other players to help Abby out? NHL stat counters making mistakes and crediting Abby for points he actually didn't earn?

(6 of his 26 ES points came with Z on the ice, fyi)

 

[WingedWheel1987]

So explain his 17-18 production?
90% of 40 points is 36, subtract half of that and you're left with 18, subtract half of that and you're left with 9, 9 + the other 10% i.e. 4 points equals 13 points that Abby should be scoring now without Datsyuk and Z only being at half capacity... that leaves 22 points unaccounted for. Dats magic powers still impacting things? Z wearing the jerseys of other players to help Abby out? NHL stat counters making mistakes and crediting Abby for points he actually didn't earn?

(6 of his 26 ES points came with Z on the ice, fyi)

Gator is a 30-35 point player without those two. It's why his contract is so terrible. Seven years at 4.25 million per year for a 30-35 point player is atrocious.

You are taking my posts far too literally, just so you can argue another hypothetical scenario.

Gator is not a 40+ point player.

You then say that he would have hit 40+ if he played seven more games. Sorry but unless the NHL decides to add seven more games to the regular season, Gator ain't hitting 40 points again. Gator could just as easily put up zero points if he played seven more games.

He put up 35 points while being given way too many PP minutes. Soooooo good. 4.25 million for a 30-35 point player that plays on the top PP unit is really worth it.

Feel free to argue how Gator is a 40+ point player without having to resort to hypothetical scenarios.

 

[Pavels Dog]

He put up 35 points while being given way too many PP minutes. Soooooo good. 4.25 million for a 30-35 point player that plays on the top PP unit is really worth it.

If you’re talking about Wilson he got over 5 million.
Wait, you’re talking about Abby? Yeah 4,25 for a physical 35-40 point player is pretty good.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If you’re talking about Wilson he got over 5 million.
Wait, you’re talking about Abby? Yeah 4,25 for a physical 35-40 point player is pretty good.

Wilson is TWENTY-FOUR YEARS OLD. He will be 30 when his horrendous contract ends.

Gator will be...wait for it...THIRTY-SEVEN YEARS OLD when his contract ends.

Not to mention that Wilson's contract was heavily influenced by his playoff performance. His contract is still awful though. Just not as awful as Gator's. At least you are getting Wilson's prime years. You are getting nothing but decline with Gator.

 

[StargateSG1]

Thanks for the comedy hour!
Trying to justify a long term, 4.25 million contract to the 4th liner
is pure gold, using the 'Mr. Game 7" as "comparable".

 

[Invictus12]

Thanks for the comedy hour!
Trying to justify a long term, 4.25 million contract to the 4th liner
is pure gold, using the 'Mr. Game 7" as "comparable".

Yeah, the problem here is that you fail to recognize that Abby can be played up and down the lineup. He's certainly doesn't have the softest hands in the league but he can and does make up for it in other ways. Part of it is physical presence. We play Tampa in playoffs and got pushed around until Abby and Smith return and the whole team looks different and what do you know, the scale tipped in out favor by quite a bit. Smith is a complete dodo-head outside of that and that's his down fall. On the other hand, Abby has his head firmly on his shoulders.

You may not recognize it because you're probably too busy at looking for goals, assists and points columns to evaluate a player and what that player is worth but, that is certainly not the case around the league. Coaches value these guys because they know their value as do GMs and more importantly, agents and the players themselves know what they bring to the ice and how valuable it is. I saw a lot of crap written in regards to Wilson on this board and couldn't help shake my head at how many think it was simply a matter of having a high scoring playoff run that landed him that contract. It may have pushed it up a bit but he was going to be in the ball park no matter what. Reason being, people who's actual opinion and view matters on the matter watch more than highlight of goals on youtube reel.

 

[KJoe88]

Poor Abby.

I remember when I used to bash on him too.

Then he started to be an ok hockey player with an marginal contract.