Red Fisher Conference Finals: Worcester Railers (1) vs New York Americans (2)

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@VanIslander @rmartin65

Please post your rosters up ASAP. And good luck!

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[VanIslander]

Worcester Railers
coach Viktor Tikhonov
incessant skating, puckhandling, playmaking & shots
associate coach Roger Neilson​

Reg Noble - Elmer Lach (A) - Guy Lafleur
Herbie Lewis - Doug Gilmour (C) - Marian Hossa
John Tonelli - Marty Walsh - Ziggy Palffy
Camille Henry - Ryan Kesler - Ernie Russell
Milan Novy, Vsevolod Bobrov​

Zdeno Chara (A) - Earl Seibert
Herb Gardiner - Doug Wilson
Bert Corbeau - Brent Burns
Pat "Boxcar" Egan

Terry Sawchuk
Rogie Vachon
​

PP1: Henry - Lach - Lafleur - Chara - Wilson
PP2: Lewis - Gilmour - Hossa - Seibert - Burns
PK1: Gilmour - Kesler - Gardiner - Seibert - Sawchuk
PK2: Lach - Lewis - Chara - Wilson - Sawchuk

COACHING STRATEGY: The Railers have a hard-working bunch, with a defensive-minded center, creative right winger and puck-wielding defenseman on every shift, utilizing the strategy of rolling four lines (though of course the top lines jump the bench more often), as per the Tikhonov way, with each left winger renowned for their ability to get into opportunistic scoring positions by the crease. The squad is to maintain a relentless pace and focus on puck possession and puck recovery, with a lot of shots on net by blueliners and freedom to experiment by wingers. Tikhonov didn't stifle the on-ice creativity of his stars, like Balderis, Makarov, Krutov and Fetisov - quite the opposite - he has the reputation for getting the most out of his players and letting creativity reign as long as pivots backchecked and passing lanes were maintained (I'm confident he'll use associate coach Captain Video and his savvy scouting and NHL rules usage to the team's advantage more often than not, giving insight to Lafleur, Hossa, Palffy and Russell on the tactics of opposing goalies and tendencies of defensemen that they can capitalize on in their creative surges) . This is not dump-and-chase hockey, though a lot of shots on net will result in a lot of rebounds and deflections to corners for forechecking; as well, corner work will help dmen counter dumps by the opposition in the Worcester end of the ice (Lach, Gilmour and Tonelli are highly praised cornermen).

 

[rmartin65]

New York Americans

Coaches: Anatoli Tarasov, Billy Reay
Captain: Boris Mikhailov
Alternate Captains: Sid Abel, Anze Kopitar, Brad Park

Paul Kariya-Stan Mikita-Boris Mikhailov
Sid Abel-Steven Stamkos-Rod Gilbert
Gordon Roberts-Anze Kopitar-Ace Bailey
Dave Balon-Don Luce-Blair Russel

Spare Forwards: Lynn Patrick, LW, Terry O'Reilly, RW

Borje Salming-Brad Park
Babe Siebert-Bob Goldham
Vasili Davydov-Joe Hall

Spare Defense: Lars-Erik Sjoberg

Bernie Parent
Sergei Bobrovsky

PP1
Stamkos-Mikita-Mikhailov
Kariya-Park

PP2
Roberts-Abel-Gilbert
Salming-Hall

PK1
Luce-Bailey
Salming-Goldham

PK2
Kopitar-Dave Balon
Siebert-Park

​

Well, I am sure every GM says it this time of year, but I have to say it- I am really excited about this team.

Coaching and Leadership
This has historically been a weaker part of my teams, but not this year; Tarasov and Reay fit well with my team- an attacking team with a strong defense- with Mikhailov and Abel leading on the ice and in the locker room, I don’t think we have any concerns on that front.

1st Line
This is one of the strongest lines in the draft, in my opinion. Offensively, it has it all- 2 very capable puck carriers that can beat you with a pass or a shot in Kariya and Mikita to go with puck-winning and defensive ability in Mikita and Mikhailov. VsX isn’t the end-all-be-all, but this unit has a 7 year score of 278.7 (if you give Mikhailov an 86, which is roughly the same score as Iginla. I think he should be higher, but I will make that case at another time). As far as negatives- it is not a very physical line. Mikita and Mikhailov are pretty ornery and won’t back down from anyone, but this line wont be a physically punishing unit.

2nd Line
I haven’t run the numbers for all of the teams, but again, this unit has to be one of the more offensively potent 2nd lines out there, with a 7-year VsX of 253.4, with the potential to increase with Stamkos’ current season- it is basically a suped-up GAG line, with Abel playing the ‘driver’/’digger’ role (as he did in real-life) and defensive safety-valve. Stamkos brings top-notch sniping and underrated playmaking, while Gilbert does the same thing he did alongside Ratelle and Hadfield. Everyone can pass (to varying degrees), and everyone can score. I should add that Abel will take the lion’s share of faceoffs. The downside to this line is that I don’t think it is very strong defensively, nor, like the top line, will it be a physically punishing squad. While I don’t think Stamkos and Gilbert are bad defensive players, they don’t seem to be much more than average in that respect. Abel is above average, but still, the unit as a whole is below average in that regard.

3rd Line
Building around Kopitar, my 3rd line is predicated on strong 2-way play. Kopitar has to be one of the upper-tier 2 way 3rd line centers at this point (in terms of total offensive and defensive package), and Roberts and Bailey add additional size and ability to the unit. Getting VsX out of the way (and giving Roberts a 74, as per a number I saw thrown about last year)- 217.7, not including the bump that Kopitar is going to get this year. Each player is well-above average in size, and while maybe not a punishing line, they can each play the body well and effectively.

4th Line
This line is mainly for defensive situations. It could use more physicality, but I think in terms of skill and ability, this line is above average among the other 4th lines in the league.

Spares
It is unfortunate that most people (I assume) pay little attention to spares, because I think I landed 2 players here that could very easily be regulars; Patrick in particular should be a very solid second-liner, but his extreme dislike of the physical game relegates him to spare-status in a draft this size. However, because he is so talented, I have no problems with him taking over for Kariya when Kariya is injured. O’Reilly adds some muscle without being useless offensively. I didn’t draft a center because I have a couple wingers who played center- Abel and Russel can both shift to center.

1st Pairing
While I missed out on one of the elite number 1 defensemen, in a draft this size Park is still an average to above-average one who is very well-rounded. Salming is a low-end number 1/elite number 2 who is also pretty well rounded, so this should be one of the better 1st pairings in the league. Simply put, it is a plus pairing across the board- defensive ability, physicality, skating, passing, and shooting.

2nd Pairing
I follow up my 1st pairing with another strong unit, with Siebert being a high-end number 3/low-end number 2, and Goldham being a solid number 4. Siebert brings the physicality and offensive skills, while Goldham is the stay-at-home shot blocker with a good outlet pass. Stylistically, I really like this pairing.

3rd Pairing
Again, I think I hit on meshing styles, in much the same way as I did on my second pairing- Davydov plays the role of defensive safety-valve (though many people have written about his passing and skating abilities), while Hall plays the role of offensive driver with a (wicked) mean-streak.

Spare
Sjoberg is an undersized defender but brings a physical presence and strong offensive game. He is a spare, but I don’t have a problem with him on my bottom pairing in the event of injury.

Goaltenders
I am below average here, I wont try to argue the point. However, Parent is not weak to the point that I think he puts my team at a significant disadvantage, especially in the playoffs (where Parent shined). Bobrovsky is a bit of a mercurial case, with very high highs and pretty low lows. However, few backups can boast of 2 Vezina’s/1st Team All-Star nods and 2 Top-5 Hart voting finishes in a 30 team league. His playoff record is quite poor… but I (or rather, Tarasov and Reay) wont be starting our backup in the playoffs. Bobrovsky is there to spell Parent in the regular season, and to keep Parent fresh for the playoffs. Bobrovksy certainly has the record for that.

PP
I think my PP units are above average, but not elite. On my top unit, Mikita, Park and Kariya should be able to drive defenses crazy finding the open shooter (ideally Stamkos or Park), with Mikhailov provind screens and getting greasy garbage goals. The second unit is set up in much the same way, with Gilbert, Salming and Siebert (or Hall, I haven’t really decided) distributing the puck to each other or Roberts, and Abel being the net-front presence.

PK
Like my PP units, I think my PK is pretty strong all the way around. Luce is one of the best, and Kopitar is easily a top PK player who I have slumming it on the second unit. The defensemen are all above-average as PKers as well, with Salming, Goldham and Davydov being well-noted shot blockers.

 

[rmartin65]

I wont be able to do much during the weekdays at this point, but hopefully I'll have the time to contribute over the weekend. Here's to a good series!

 

[rmartin65]

Let's get this started!

Coaching/Leadership
I think it is close, but New York has the edge. Tarasov is superior to Tikhonov, and while the difference in the assistant/associate coaches helps Worcester make up some ground, I still think the difference between the guy making the final decisions at the end of the day carries more weight. Furthermore, I think Mikhailov/Abel/Park is a greater leadership corps than Gilmour/Chara/Lach by a comfortable margin.

1st Lines
On a position-to-position breakdown I have it as
LW: Kariya over Noble (Americans advantage)
C: Mikita over Lach (Americans advantage)
RW: Lafleur over Mikhailov (Railers advantage)

VsX gives us
New York Americans: 192.7 + Mikhailov (86?)= 278.7
Worcester Railers- 190.6 + Noble (65?)= 256.1

22.6 is a rather large gap, Noble really hurts the line from that standpoint. Worcester may have a stronger unit defensively, but not nearly enough to make up that gap. The New York Americans have a sizable advantage in 1st lines.

2nd Line
It gets a little closer here. Again, positional break down gives us

LW: Abel over Lewis (Americans advantage)
C: Gilmour over Stamkos (Railers advantage)
RW: Too close to call. Gilbert has the offense, Hossa the defense

VsX gives us
New York Americans: 253.4 (not including Stamkos' current year, which would raise this score)
Worcester Railers: 239.4

Once again, the New York Americans carry a decisive advantage in terms of offense. Now, I again admit that the Railers' trio is superior defensively, but I dont think the difference is enough to swing the advantage over to Worcester. If we look at awards and all-star nominations, the Americans clearly come out ahead-

1st team all-star: 3 to 0 (Americans advantage)
2nd team all-star: 5 to 1 (Americans advantage)
MVP: 1 to 0 (Americans advantage)
Goal Leaders: 3 to 0 (Americans advantage)
Selke: 0 to 1 (Worcester advantage)

All-in all, this looks like a comfortable advantage for the Americans.

3rd Line
These lines look to be constructed in a pretty similar way.
LW: Roberts over Tonelli (Americans advantage)
C: Kopitar over Walsh (Americans advantage)
RW: Palffy over Bailey (Railers advantage)

I wont calculate VsX, as I dont have the numbers for Walsh or Tonelli, but I will say that it looks like New York has another considerable advantage.

Defensively, it looks pretty close. I'd probably rank them
Kopitar (Americans)
Walsh (Railers)
Bailey (Americans)
Tonelli (Railers)
Roberts (Americans)
Palffy (Railers)

Close enough that I dont think we have to fuss about it.

Overall advantage here goes to the Americans, as they are equal to the Railers' defensively while being much better offensively.

4th lines
Honestly... I dont really care. I think Kesler is the best player here, but Henry is pretty useless at ES. That probably balances that out a bit. I'm comfortable calling this matchup a wash.

1st Pairing
Advantage to New York. Park is better than Seibert, and Salming is better than Chara. It is fairly close, though.

2nd Pairing
Advantage to New York. Siebert is better than Wilson, Goldham and Gardiner are just about a wash.

3rd Pairing
Advantage to New York. Hall is better than Burns, Davydov is better than Corbeau.

Goalie
Big advantage for Worcester. I think Parent is a solid goalie in a draft this size, but Sawchuk is one of the best. If Worcester is to win, it is going to be because of a Herculean effort on his part.

ST
New York looks better on the PP, PK looks to be a wash.

All-in-all, I think New York is a stronger team. Our offensive firepower is just on another level, and while Worcester's forwards are a bit better on defense than New York's, the Americans defense is just too strong. Goaltending is really the only place where Worcester has an advantage, and I don't think that will be enough.

 

[jarek]

Will this series finally settle once and for all who the superior Soviet coach was!?

 

[Dreakmur]

Will this series finally settle once and for all who the superior Soviet coach was!?

That’s long settled for me. Not even close on my eyes.

 

[jarek]

That’s long settled for me. Not even close on my eyes.

I was being facetious of course.

 

[Thenameless]

Coaching

I believe Tarasov to be the best as he was some kind of a visionary, with Billy Reay a nice offset in style as a player's coach. Tikhonov was also a great coach, and I believe the innovative Neilson brings more to the assistant coaching role. I'm seeing this as a dead heat - draw for me.

Force me to choose though, and I'll take Tikhonov and Neilson.

 

[ImporterExporter]

@rmartin65 what are your thoughts on trying to contain Lafleur.

 

[rmartin65]

@rmartin65 what are your thoughts on trying to contain Lafleur.

I would make sure Salming and Park were out there when Lafleur was. Lafleur being Worcester's only real offensive threat makes it easier to focus on him than, say, an opposing team having to face the Americans.

 

[VanIslander]

Lafleur being Worcester's only real offensive threat ...

Lach has a better vsx than Forsberg's 7-year peak!

And the blueline will provide a ton more scoring opportunities on prolific shooting.

It's hard to believe that in the playoffs the Railers' 2nd line isn't a competitive advantage in this series!!!! And goaltending.