Rebuild: Who To Keep?

TruBlu

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Feb 7, 2016
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I think Tarasenko is probably a 20 goal guy per season from here on out. He's not been on the roster for pretty much two years, he's gained weight and lost a step, and he's had two surgeries on his shoulder. He's still going to be a goal scorer, but he's never going to be the consistent 30-40 goal guy we had a few years ago.
 
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Mike Liut

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We better hope Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin and Perunovich turn out to be difference makers. And that’s very possible.
 
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Lucid88

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Aug 21, 2020
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I think Tarasenko is probably a 20 goal guy per season from here on out. He's not been on the roster for pretty much two years, he's gained weight and lost a step, and he's had two surgeries on his shoulder. He's still going to be a goal scorer, but he's never going to be the consistent 30- 40 goal guy we had a few years ago.
Honestly I’d even wager 15-20goals optimistically . Tarasenko’s shot selection and passes are really troubling at this point. He usually shoots directly into the goalies chest with no traffic or from the outside on a terrible angle. He usually makes 3-4 passes a game that are picked off or are super risky. I truly believe he is done being a top 6 forward in the NHL sadly.
 
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Majorityof1

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Honestly I’d even wager 15-20goals optimistically . Tarasenko’s shot selection and passes are really troubling at this point. He usually shoots directly into the goalies chest with no traffic or from the outside on a terrible angle. He usually makes 3-4 passes a game that are picked off or are super risky. I truly believe he is done being a top 6 forward in the NHL sadly.

Coming back from a 3rd shoulder surgery and averaging only a 48-point pace in his first 20 games back....he's done. Yep, this is the kind of quality analysis that almost keeps me not coming back to this forum.

<deep breath> Ok. Yea, it is very frustrating that we are bad and Tarasenko is no longer a difference maker. But he is producing in aggregate. That is good. As of 3 months ago, I honestly didn't think he'd even be dressed and skating by now. Give him some time to recover and find his groove before completely writing him off.

In his first 20 games since coming back from his 3rd SHOULDER SURGERY, he is 2nd on the team in scoring chances per 60, first in individual Corsi events per 60, 3rd in assists per 60, 7th in points per 60 (but not far away from 4th). The goals aren't going in but he is producing assists and opportunities. There is not reason to believe that the other numbers wont improve with time and healing. His few goals we have seen are prime Tarasenko goals. Given time it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he gets that classic Tarasenko swagger back.
 

Xerloris

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Coming back from a 3rd shoulder surgery and averaging only a 48-point pace in his first 20 games back....he's done. Yep, this is the kind of quality analysis that almost keeps me not coming back to this forum.

<deep breath> Ok. Yea, it is very frustrating that we are bad and Tarasenko is no longer a difference maker. But he is producing in aggregate. That is good. As of 3 months ago, I honestly didn't think he'd even be dressed and skating by now. Give him some time to recover and find his groove before completely writing him off.

In his first 20 games since coming back from his 3rd SHOULDER SURGERY, he is 2nd on the team in scoring chances per 60, first in individual Corsi events per 60, 3rd in assists per 60, 7th in points per 60 (but not far away from 4th). The goals aren't going in but he is producing assists and opportunities. There is not reason to believe that the other numbers wont improve with time and healing. His few goals we have seen are prime Tarasenko goals. Given time it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he gets that classic Tarasenko swagger back.

I fully believe that next year ( assuming no further injury ) that he will hit 30+ goals again easily. The last time he played any real hockey was June 2019, give the guy time.
 
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Lucid88

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Coming back from a 3rd shoulder surgery and averaging only a 48-point pace in his first 20 games back....he's done. Yep, this is the kind of quality analysis that almost keeps me not coming back to this forum.

<deep breath> Ok. Yea, it is very frustrating that we are bad and Tarasenko is no longer a difference maker. But he is producing in aggregate. That is good. As of 3 months ago, I honestly didn't think he'd even be dressed and skating by now. Give him some time to recover and find his groove before completely writing him off.

In his first 20 games since coming back from his 3rd SHOULDER SURGERY, he is 2nd on the team in scoring chances per 60, first in individual Corsi events per 60, 3rd in assists per 60, 7th in points per 60 (but not far away from 4th). The goals aren't going in but he is producing assists and opportunities. There is not reason to believe that the other numbers wont improve with time and healing. His few goals we have seen are prime Tarasenko goals. Given time it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he gets that classic Tarasenko swagger back.
That was beautiful lol well done. You need guys like me for you to deliver these knockout fully analytically rebuttals. You have me slightly optimistic but we can’t fix those bad passes
 

Renard

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It was the play of Binnington that sparked the team and took us on a long winning streak in 2019.

He is still young and recently got a long term contract. If there is one player who could reverse the trend, it's him. He's not coming off a major injury or surgery.

If we go for a rebuild, and have a goalie with an 89% save percentage, it will be painful. We have two terrific goalie prospects, but neither has yet to play a professional hockey game.

Binnington went thru the hottest fire as a rookie. But he looked bad in last year's playoffs, and he hasn't impressed this season.

Have other teams figured him out? Can he adjust his game to compensate?
 

JEMarks3

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Apr 23, 2021
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Binner could be more aggressive with our old defensive guys and two-way forwards. Petro, Bouw, Edmundson, Gunnarsson, Steen, Sundqvist, etc.

He likes to wander out of the net to cut-off angles a little too much for my liking with our current group. If rebounds are an issue, half the net is open.

We don’t seem to have the offensive structure/power-play/firepower to score 3 or 4 on high-end playoff teams. It looks like the Blues have to play nearly perfect games to beat anyone of note.
 
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finnishflash13

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Oct 28, 2020
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We better hope Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin and Perunovich turn out to be difference makers. And that’s very possible.
Already seen 3/4 of those players in the NHL. Without seeing Perunovich, Thomas is probably most likely out of the remaining 3. Kyrou just does not seem to have the drive to play both ends of the ice and gets knocked off the puck way too easily for someone people want to be elite. His one move is the wraparound....
 

Mike Liut

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Already seen 3/4 of those players in the NHL. Without seeing Perunovich, Thomas is probably most likely out of the remaining 3. Kyrou just does not seem to have the drive to play both ends of the ice and gets knocked off the puck way too easily for someone people want to be elite. His one move is the wraparound....



Way too early to make a conclusion on any of them.
 

Celtic Note

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Kyrou and Thomas are NHL players now and project at that level in the future. I am confident in penciling them in. Where they get penciled is the question. Both could be game breakers at their peak or 3rd liners at their base IMO.

Scotty P and Kostin are “?s”. But they have some significant potential, need to show at the next level that there is hope they can reach it and establish themselves as baseline NHL players.


We have three goalies with significant potential and varying degrees a readiness. As we all know, it’s hard to get a good read until they get closer to the NHL, so it’s a bit harder to get a handle on what we have.

The next tier is a lot of lower potential guys and a few wildcards that we can’t bank on having much impact.
 

LetsGoBooze

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Whether you like the recent results or not, we're still in on the roster for another 2-3 years minimum. Absolutely no way we can, or should start a rebuild currently. Honestly, i still believe in this roster being good enough to make the playoffs over the next few years, but i agree that we no longer feel like a top team and far from 'favorite'. But catching fire in the right playoff scenario i could still see this team making a run.

Overall, I would brace for mediocrity for the next 5 years then prolly bottom of the barrel for the next 5 while we completely rebuild from the bottom up. I may be in the minority but i dont see this as a bad thing, give this current roster a few more runs, then as the current roster ages, transition into being in the bottom 3rd of the League for a few years and build a new roster through the top of the draft for multiple years.
 

Renard

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Nov 14, 2011
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Whether you like the recent results or not, we're still in on the roster for another 2-3 years minimum. Absolutely no way we can, or should start a rebuild currently. Honestly, i still believe in this roster being good enough to make the playoffs over the next few years, but i agree that we no longer feel like a top team and far from 'favorite'. But catching fire in the right playoff scenario i could still see this team making a run.

Overall, I would brace for mediocrity for the next 5 years then prolly bottom of the barrel for the next 5 while we completely rebuild from the bottom up. I may be in the minority but i dont see this as a bad thing, give this current roster a few more runs, then as the current roster ages, transition into being in the bottom 3rd of the League for a few years and build a new roster through the top of the draft for multiple years.

Now I know how I will be spending my declining years.
 

BlueMed

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Jul 18, 2019
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maybe they've got a run in them like the 8th-seeded Kings had in '12.

We would need Parayko and Tarasenko to start playing like their former selves if thats gonna happen. Also, bringing Kostin over could be the big body presence we are lacking.
 
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GoldenSeal

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Dec 1, 2013
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Coming back from a 3rd shoulder surgery and averaging only a 48-point pace in his first 20 games back....he's done. Yep, this is the kind of quality analysis that almost keeps me not coming back to this forum.

<deep breath> Ok. Yea, it is very frustrating that we are bad and Tarasenko is no longer a difference maker. But he is producing in aggregate. That is good. As of 3 months ago, I honestly didn't think he'd even be dressed and skating by now. Give him some time to recover and find his groove before completely writing him off.

In his first 20 games since coming back from his 3rd SHOULDER SURGERY, he is 2nd on the team in scoring chances per 60, first in individual Corsi events per 60, 3rd in assists per 60, 7th in points per 60 (but not far away from 4th). The goals aren't going in but he is producing assists and opportunities. There is not reason to believe that the other numbers wont improve with time and healing. His few goals we have seen are prime Tarasenko goals. Given time it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he gets that classic Tarasenko swagger back.

We need 91 to convert on those scoring chances. I think his best days are behind him. He plays with sheer will but his body just isn’t there anymore.
 

Majorityof1

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We need 91 to convert on those scoring chances. I think his best days are behind him. He plays with sheer will but his body just isn’t there anymore.

We also need Parayko to be 100% healthy and we need one of our LHD to play defense like prime Bouwmeester. Just because we need those things doesn't mean its fair to expect them, or they are even possible. Nor does what we need have anything to do with the long-term prognosis on Tarasenko's ability to become a game-changer again. Just because his body isn't there, doesn't mean it won't continue to get stronger.

In addition, based on my viewings, it more his confidence that needs work. He is getting scoring chances, but he has always been a high volume guy and the volume isn't there. He is passing up opportunities. Moreover, he is not making the confident play. I think his confidence and timing need to come back. That might take nothing more than a hot streak. Coming down the ice with the puck, he is more likely to go wide or pass. He needs to cut in toward the middle rather than passing it or holding it. He needs to trust he can get to a better position around or through the defender and that he can score from that position. I think he is waiting for the perfect opportunity because he doesn't yet have the confidence to believe he can make an opportunity.

My favorite Tarasenko moment was when the team hung Elliott out to dry and went down by a goal. Tarasenko skated over, told him "we'll get that back". Then he went out and did just that. I won't begin to write him off until I see that swagger coupled with a failure of his body to score, or until its been at the least a full year without seeing that swagger.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Last game I saw Tarasenko make a familiar power cut to the front of the net and try to get it past the goalie, getting flipped in the process. It didn't work, but that move from Vlad has scared defensemen in this league for years. I also saw a PP where he was standing by the wall basically watching the other 4 guys cycle, and eventually got the puck for an unscreened shot from distance that had very little hope of being anything but a no-rebound save.

To my eye, he is getting increasingly more engaged in the games, but he still has lapses where he is passing to no one, or isn't moving his feet like he needs to. I think its unrealistic to see him as a difference-maker before this post-season comes to an end, but maybe he'll have a flash or two to remind us.
 

Ted Hoffman

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Shayne Gostisbehere cleared waivers last month. He was on pace for 16 goals and 36 points when he cleared, is only 27 years old and is only 3 years removed from a 65 point season where he finished 10th in Norris voting. He has 2 more years of a $4.5M cap hit and is only owed $3.25M a year in real dollars for each of those seasons. No team in the NHL was willing to take that contract for nothing.
You do know why "no team in the NHL was willing to take that contract for nothing," right? Hint: it has to do with the salary cap, and it's been true for 15 years and counting now - and it's going to be true for the next 15 years, too.

It is incredibly optimistic to think that Tarasenko has any trade value with a $7.5M cap hit, $15M in remaining salary owed and only 30 games played in the last 2 seasons. Any team scouting him right now is going to have concerns and I don't see any owner being willing to pay $15M on that gamble, much less giving up a good asset to do so.
Tarasenko has trade value. Tarasenko does not have "high" [1st + top prospect + whatever else] value in the regular season, absent us taking a similar contract back. He might not have it in the offseason without the same condition. I don't know, I haven't sat and thought about it. But there is almost always a GM somewhere that thinks yeah, we can find some of that lost magic, we can find that 30-35 goal form he had before and will swing a deal banking on it. It's 2 years. If you think he can get you to a next level in those 2 years and maybe you make another move and you're on the precipice of a Cup, it's worth it.

Would it help if Tarasenko started proving he could be that 30-35 goal guy again? Sure, but if he did that would we be talking about trading him? Likely not. You don't trade the guys who are stellar for you, you trade the guys you don't want or you trade the guys who have the highest value on the market because you're rebuilding in some way. We're not in the latter camp, so if we're putting him out we're probably talking about being in the former.
 

Ted Hoffman

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We better hope Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin and Perunovich turn out to be difference makers. And that’s very possible.
That's a lot of eggs in one basket. What I expect:

Thomas - could turn into a 2nd-line center, definitely not a 1st-line one. Might be a 3rd-line center a la Lars Eller, which is not horrible.

Kyrou - could be a 2nd-line winger. Could be a 4th-line winger. Will have to really blossom to get to 1st-line potential. Again, not horrible.

Kostin - yet another look, he's doing X in some other league, he'll be fantastic here! story. See Dmitrij Jaskin? That's about what you're looking at with Kostin.

Perunovich - he's going to get every last possible chance to show he's a top-4 guy. If we're lucky, he's Torey Krug in Boston up through last season. If we're not, he's perhaps Steve Wagner.

Behind them? It gets ugly among the skaters. I see 4th liners galore, perhaps one player getting developed enough to be a 3rd-liner. Walman is a 6/7 kind of guy. So is Mikkola. They're going to get playing time out of necessity, they'll occasionally make a play and people will go ga-ga over them, but the bottom line is they're not guys you're building a Cup-winning defense with.

WYSIWYG, people. This roster is what's going to carry us through the playoffs for however long it's together. When guys age out and/or leave, we have nothing to replace them and going out and finding someone is going to be expensive. We're not in rebuild now, but when we are it's going to be painful We won a Cup, though - and we may be clinging to those memories for a while.
 
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LGB

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I think Thomas is being underrated since he hasn't gotten on the scoresheet as much recently. Since joining the Blues he is even with ROR with ~2.1 p/60 leading the team. Also has always had postive xG impacts. 2nd line is his floor IMO. Kyrou is an interesting case because he really excels off the rush and the Blues generally prefer the cycle. Will he adapt? Will the Blues cater one of the lines to his play style? No doubt in my mind he has the talent of a top 6 forward but I'm not as sure it will work our for him here.
 
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Blueston

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That's a lot of eggs in one basket. What I expect:

Thomas - could turn into a 2nd-line center, definitely not a 1st-line one. Might be a 3rd-line center a la Lars Eller, which is not horrible.

Kyrou - could be a 2nd-line winger. Could be a 4th-line winger. Will have to really blossom to get to 1st-line potential. Again, not horrible.

Kostin - yet another look, he's doing X in some other league, he'll be fantastic here! story. See Dmitrij Jaskin? That's about what you're looking at with Kostin.

Perunovich - he's going to get every last possible chance to show he's a top-4 guy. If we're lucky, he's Torey Krug in Boston up through last season. If we're not, he's perhaps Steve Wagner.

Behind them? It gets ugly among the skaters. I see 4th liners galore, perhaps one player getting developed enough to be a 3rd-liner. Walman is a 6/7 kind of guy. So is Mikkola. They're going to get playing time out of necessity, they'll occasionally make a play and people will go ga-ga over them, but the bottom line is they're not guys you're building a Cup-winning defense with.

WYSIWYG, people. This roster is what's going to carry us through the playoffs for however long it's together. When guys age out and/or leave, we have nothing to replace them and going out and finding someone is going to be expensive. We're not in rebuild now, but when we are it's going to be painful We won a Cup, though - and we may be clinging to those memories for a while.
We have some interesting guys from last 2 drafts as well. Neighbors could be 2nd liner, Alexandreev 3rd. The big kid at BC too. And Kessel and Tucker could both play in NHL.

But I agree with larger point. We need ROR and Parayko andSchenn and Faulk and Krug and Tarasenko to be our best players bc other than Thomas doesn’t look like anyone coming behind will be at that level.
 
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BlueMed

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That's a lot of eggs in one basket. What I expect:

Thomas - could turn into a 2nd-line center, definitely not a 1st-line one. Might be a 3rd-line center a la Lars Eller, which is not horrible.

Kyrou - could be a 2nd-line winger. Could be a 4th-line winger. Will have to really blossom to get to 1st-line potential. Again, not horrible.

Kostin - yet another look, he's doing X in some other league, he'll be fantastic here! story. See Dmitrij Jaskin? That's about what you're looking at with Kostin.

Perunovich - he's going to get every last possible chance to show he's a top-4 guy. If we're lucky, he's Torey Krug in Boston up through last season. If we're not, he's perhaps Steve Wagner.

Behind them? It gets ugly among the skaters. I see 4th liners galore, perhaps one player getting developed enough to be a 3rd-liner. Walman is a 6/7 kind of guy. So is Mikkola. They're going to get playing time out of necessity, they'll occasionally make a play and people will go ga-ga over them, but the bottom line is they're not guys you're building a Cup-winning defense with.

WYSIWYG, people. This roster is what's going to carry us through the playoffs for however long it's together. When guys age out and/or leave, we have nothing to replace them and going out and finding someone is going to be expensive. We're not in rebuild now, but when we are it's going to be painful We won a Cup, though - and we may be clinging to those memories for a while.

Robert Thomas is only 21 years old. He has shown great potential and already has the skill to be a slightly more offensive and slightly less defensive version of Bergeron. He just needs to grown into his man body and man strength.
 
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