Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
So the plan is...to draft better to rebuild the prospect pool? Damn if only ATL had thought of that!
Rebuild continues to go well for Winnipeg Jets
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So the plan is...to draft better to rebuild the prospect pool? Damn if only ATL had thought of that!
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Sweech
Oh When the Spurs
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
scelaton
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2012
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Challenge to the statisticians:
If you look at these numbers closely, a concerning pattern emerges. Comparing the 5 successful rebuilds (total of 18 seasons) to the 6 unsuccessful ones (total of 27seasons):
a)successful teams were 3 times as likely to have a 1st overall pick (6 picks in 18 seasons or LR= .33 vs LR=.11 for unsuccessful teams)
b)successful teams had top-5 picks almost twice as often (LR 1.05 vs .59)
c)successful teams had slightly more top 10 picks, but the difference was not significant (1.1 vs .8)
Looking in the mirror, the Atlanta/Wpg rebuild has numbers that place it clearly in the 'unlikely to be successful' camp, by these criteria (no top overall pick and only 2 top-5s in 5 years)
It looks as if , during a rebuild, it's much better to be very bad (i.e., bottom 5) than mediocre, as Holden and others have pointed out.
Thoughts?
I believe there is a formula to winning a cup.
IMO, simply put, you need at least 2 scoring lines - so teams can not simply shut down a top player, or his line. Those two lines have 'elite' scoring and playmaking, and put up points consistently. Both can handle pp time with results and can win line match-ups. Then, a 3rd line that wins their line match-up by scoring modestly and being mostly a plus in (+/-), and a 4th line that can spell the other lines as much as needed and chip in offensively as well (but that's not that critical). A 4th line that can bang, create chances and is defensively aware - ideally two on that line are pk worthy and good at it.
On d, a top pairing with at least one offensive-minded guy who can be a pp qb, that will play heavy minutes without being physically overmatched. A 2nd pairing shut-down group that is very solid in their zone and is still competent offensively (strong outlet passes, good shot from point, etc.), and bottom pairing that is a bit of both, but not quite ready for heavy minutes.
In goal, a guy that can win games by himself, but most of all is a consistent performer who provides solid (and, at times when needed, spectacular play) goaltending game in and game out. Doesn't give up bad goals often, rather, he 'gets into the head' of opponents and gets them doing things they normally wouldn't when trying to score.
To me, 're-building' is really about getting certain type of players you don't have - to be successful. You can gain them via trade, or draft, but it's the type of player more so than where you pick - to complete your lineup. You can't simply pick elite goal scoring LW'ers each time in a top 5. That said, to get an elite player to generate points (elite winger or center - like P Kane, Stamkos, Toews, Malkin, Crosby, Tavares, etc) that's usually obtained with a the top 3 pick - maybe top 5. Same with that elite, top pairing dman, he is also usually a high pick as well. Goalies tend to be picked later, but i'd argue that likely arent going to find an elite goalie in the 7th round.
Thrashers took Stefan, Heatley and Kovy all in the span of a few years. Then took Coburn and Kari. That should have been the foundation of a very strong team going forward. But for Atlanta, Stefan was a bust, Heatley drove impaired killing Snyder and Kovy eventually had virtually no one to play with. They lost patience with both Coburn and Lehtonen and moved them. They almost lost patience with Bogo after 3 yrs. The Thrashers, under different ownership and circumstances, may have been a successful franchise. They had the draft picks to be a strong team.
As for the Jets rebuild, i feel we have an elite scoring winger in Kane. We need an elite center, and maybe that's Scheifele one day, not sure. In the meantime, Oli slots in there as a very good stop gap. I don't think Burmi will become an elite 1st line center, but that doesn't mean he's not a valuable player moving forward. He has elite skill, but hasn't put it together, yet, to generate points. If we pick early enough in 2013, another elite level forward would look good. Next, Little, Ladd, and Wheeler (with two of those players taken in top 5), are a very competent scoring 2nd line - and are all reaching their prime. Our third line of Poni, Burmi and Antro could be a 3rd line that wins most match-ups, but i'm a bit concerned that all three need new contracts for 2013/14. Potentially all three could not be Jets next year (if Burmi signs in KHL, for instance). I also don't see many 3rd line wingers in our system - telegin, meh. I consider a guy like Jannik Hansen a very good 3rd line winger, and would love to see the Jets acquire him in a trade. Slater is a very good 3rd or 4th line center and pk'er, imo. Other young players - Cormier, Machacek, Klingberg, etc. - could fill the remaining 4th line spots.
On d, slick puckmover Enstrom is signed long-term. I'm comfortable Bogo will be locked up long-term, as well, so i see that as a very good top pairing duo with offense and defense capabilities. I think Trouba is a very solid #3 dman (when he arrives), and Stuart, Redmond and Postma round out the bottom pairing. I don't see Buff in the mix long term (maybe that's just me), so a future LH 2nd pairing shut-down dman is a 'need' for me going into the draft (say, Nurse or Morrissey-type) though, I see a 2nd rnd pick used on a player like that.
In goal, Pavy is signed long-term, has shown some flashes but is terribly inconsistent - perhaps due to his conditioning and preparation, etc. Hopefully he matures to the point where his game improves and he can be a solid performer game in and game out.
Anyway, i guess what i'm saying is...
1) if Scheifele can grow into a very good 1st or 2nd line center in next 2 yrs,
2) if Trouba develops into a solid #3 shut-down dman in next 2 yrs,
3) we can grab an elite forward in the 1st rd of 2013 draft (may be a top 5 or 10),
4) we can grab a shut-down dman in the 2nd rd of 2013 draft,
5) we select a goalie of the future in the 2nd rd of the 2013 draft,
... then our 're-build' looks pretty good. We also have Buff to use as trade bait to get a player we lack once Trouba arrives, say a solid two-way player for our 1st or 2nd line ... or 2nd pairing dman, that might speed up this process a bit.
That fruit won't come to bear until 16-17, 17-18 at the earliest. Bogosian's played 4 NHL/pro seasons, and he's just starting to show "shut-down" ability. I don't think it is fair to Trouba or the organization as a whole to expect him to develop that quickly.
Sure, they will need some time to grow and develop, and at the NHL level too. Make the playoffs, get spanked and exit early. Then, win a round or two. Then, finally be a team that has a legitimate chance of winning a cup.
Two years is likely a bit ambitious, and may indeed take more than that, but I'm thinking within four years these players could be (hopefully) contributing at a significant level. The good part is you lock them up, and they are key contributors for a number of years on a playoff caliber team.
I get what your saying bob but I think your timelines a little off. I'd be floorI'd id trouba was capable of #3 #4 minutes in less then 4 years. That means 5 for a drafted LHD. A goalies going to take at least five as well.
That makes LLW all 30+ in the unlikely event they stick around that long.
Frankly, as Holdens mentioned before, were kinda out of time to "build from within" if. were keeping LLW and bug S part of the core. Wed practically have to start over focusing on only bongo and Kane as our current keepers.
Mix in the probability that were almost garanteed(statistically) to have one of schief/teouba/pick disappoint and that outlook gets real grim real quick.
I agree those are the pieces we need, but realistically I don't think we have the time to draft them...
teuba and bongo is our d core of tomorrow....
i'd go back and clean that up but it wouldn't feel honest
truck
Registered User
You had lots of gold in there. A few thoughts...
Moving Coburn and Kari were huge mistakes IMO. Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, but the addition of those two players to last year's roster would have made a huge difference. Imagine last year's squad with a Coburn / Bogosian 2nd pairing and real consistent goalkeeping.
As for the rebuild, I am kind of in between you and Grind on the timeline.
I agree that a top flight forward would be a huge piece, but I am not sure that:
a) the Jets will get one in the draft (It will depend where our guys draft)
b) that a 2013 draft pick will make a difference quick enough to help this core. MacKinnon or Barkov would be amazing though. Could Monahan or Lindholm make the jump early?
Unless we add one of those guys, I can't see the new forward making an impact any time soon.
That said...
I do think our current core could develop or be made into a contender. It may be a bit of a long shot, but there is a chance and a lot of it will be about how Burmistrov, Kane and Scheifele develop.
The Forwards
Ladd is here for 4 year and while Little and Wheeler's deals are both up for renewal, TNSE should be able to re-up Little for really decent value. Wheeler will probably get a deal similar to Kane's. Neither of those contracts will throw the salary cap out of wack and while they may not be elite, they could be a cost effective top 6 grouping for the next 4 years or so.
Now we get to the ifs... If a line of Kane, Scheifele and Burmi can develop into a similarly dangerous group (or better) the Jets won't be hurting in the top 6. Call them 1a and 1b or even 2a and 2b, if that trio develops, the Jets will be fine. The system has an abundance of depth players and depth players can be had via free agency so I don't really worry about the bottom 6.
Of course hedging bets on that trio is a big gamble, so some tinkering with free agency would make a big difference and add a lot more security. Obviously one of Kane's buddies (Perry and Getzlaf) would be huge, but even someone like Roy or Zajac or any pretty much any other decent 2nd line C / RW could make the Jets top 6 into a solid unit.
The Defenders
The Jets have 3 very good defenders signed long term, but there definitely is a hole on that 2nd pairing. I have been a big defender of Hainsey, but I am always looking for upgrades. Filling this position from within will probably take years, especially if the Jets hope to do it with a 2013 draft pick.
Long term, Buff could be moved to make room for Trouba. Short term, I live the idea of a free agency pickup. I have had dreams of Smid for a long time. I think he would be a perfect fit next to Bogo on that 2nd unit, but there will be other options via free agency.
Conclusion
The Jets nabbed a top 6 stop gap in Olli, if Scheifele and or Burmi can legitimately earn top 6 roles in the next two years, then the Jets can role with this core. Of course, a couple solid FAs would expedite the process.
If the youngsters tank, the rebuild will have to start over... and the core moving forward will be Bogo, Scheifele and Trouba.
Very much agree, Truck.
I'm hopeful our young players will really contribute at the NHL level within the next two to three years, to take advantage of current core guys of LLW, Pavs and Toby being in their primes.
If it becomes apparent they won't be able to contribute within that timeframe, then upgrades via trade and FA is definitely needed. Really, the only concern i had with signing Oli is his age. In short-term, he's a big help, but his long-term value to the Jets is marginal, imo.
I'd target a bit younger a player via trade - say a Bobby Ryan or Nick Backstrom-type (if the later is availabe due to his large contract and the asking price was 'reasonable') - to fill existing line-up holes.
If the Jets are drafting in the 10-20 slot this year, they may get a quality player, but that player would be 4+ yrs away. If they pick in the top 5, that player may only be 2-3 yrs away from contributing in a significant way.
I think the Jets rebuild is pretty fluent. I'm hopefuly if something pops up via trade market, that can speed this 'rebuild', Chevy jumps at it.
truck
Registered User
I can't get on board with a trade unless is is a crazy crazy bargain. The Jets simply don't have the roster or system depth to make a substantial move.
The only real redundancy they have is in bottom 6 players and right handed PP defenders. Moving anyone else screws and already shallow talent pool.
The other thing stopping a major move too is Chevy doesn't have to make a major trade to 'save his job' like Lombardi felt compelled to do. Granted the Kings were much closer and had significant pieces in place already, but they were sputtering for most of the year until a few moves were made (Sutter/Carter).
The Jets can be patient and add prospects and take the 2 or 3 more years to see how close they are.
But i like the moves the Kings made, moving young virtually unproven players for key support guys that helped win the cup. Boston did something similar, the year before with Kelly and Peverley - and Horton & Campbell prior to the season.
I look forward to when the Jets are in that type of situation, where a deal or two makes the difference in being a playoff team to a legit cup contender.
truck
Registered User
Those teams also had pieces to move. Most experts have our prospect pool graded among the worst in the league.
We would be moving Burmi, Scheifele & Postma in a package to get anyone good. That would cripple the team going forward.
Well, i'm okay with moving Burmi, Postma and even one of our 2nds this year, in the right deal to get someone that is young, 'controllable' contract-wise, and upgrades our top 6 substantially. I'm not sure how crippling that would be, tbh. Our poor prospect pool, imo, is based on lack of quality as much as it is lack of quantity.
Scheifele and Trouba would be the only prospects that would be non-starters in a trade, for me.
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