Reason for Jets success this season so far?

[Guffman]

My thoughts on Brian Burke are quite similar as my thoughts of Maurice. Obviously they would see eye to eye, they have the same warts. Birds of feather flock together.

So don't expect me to take it as a negative, that Brian Burke disagrees with me. I don't take him for a serious hockey analyst.

Yeah, Burke was only a General Manager for a number of years with other executive titles. He doesn’t know much about hockey.

 

[buggs]

What if...Buff was the problem last year.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think the biggest reason for success is hustle from the team as a whole.
Goaltending right there with it.
We do have a deadly forward group, WHEN they are hustling.
Coaching is a hard one to assess.

It’s an odd season for sure as it picked up where we left last January and it appeared that the disharmony was still present in some form.
Then I have heard some comments from both Wheeler and Maurice and I’m thinking the younger players are being heard at some level.
I was thinking early on Maurice was a dinosaur not willing to try certain things and while injuries have forced his hand he still could have kept 26 & 55 together but didn’t.
Helle has been great and Brossoit is rounding into form.
Our D corps is finding a way and the team seems to believe in each other.
This was not apparent early on and the change is wonderful to see as a fan.
I’m guessing the advanced stats aren’t great but thank goodness for “outliers”

 

[Gm0ney]

All I know is Rosie looks better with legit Nhlers.

BREAKING: Players look better with better linemates

 

[Gm0ney]

Yeah, Burke was only a General Manager for a number of years with other executive titles. He doesn’t know much about hockey.

I'd say at least as much as Mike Milbury, who was a player, coach and GM for many years at the highest levels of the sport. Haven't heard about his vote for the Jack yet.

 

[rkp]

Hellybuck makes the defense look better than it actually is...if hellybuck had a .910/15 , would everybody be saying that the dense is really rounding out in form?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

OK, where would Boston, NYI, and STL be if they had .910 goaltending? Why did Craig Berube get all those kudos? Wasn’t it all Binnington?

We pay Hellebuyck to be an elite goalie. Why have a “what if” scenario that he sucks?

Should we have a “what if” scenario wondering if Schiefele became a 40 point centre? Or what if Morrissey played like Meyers? What if Big Buff decided to not show up this year and we had to deploy an AHL defence (oh, that happened?).

The Jets paid their elite goalie to an elite contract. The expectations are there that he would play to his contract.

If we were paying $2M for a .910 goalie, where do I get to spend the other $4M to upgrade the team?

Or, you like to wonder what would happen if big contract players just played like mediocre players to what...deflect praise to other aspects of the team and coaching?

Good post Guff. The goalie is part of the team, not apart from the team.

Still, given the subject of this thread it is appropriate to look at goaltending but maybe the 'what if' should consider if Helle was just playing to his contract rather than exceeding it. He is getting 6 mil and playing like 10. What if his sv% was in the .915-.920 range?

I think Helle's play is the biggest single reason for our good record. But there are several other lesser contributors and that has to include coaching.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hate him or not, if the Jets continue at this pace for the rest of the season, Paul Maurice has to be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year.

That's a big if at this point.

But yes, if the Jets finish the season at their current pace. That = 102.5 pts on the season, btw.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Staring Ice Hockey GIF by NHL - Find & Share on GIPHY

Hmmm not sure how to embed a gif into the thread...

Like this.

 

[PhilJets]

NHL.com
Fantasy ranking

Has 5 Jets forward as first line players.

Combine that with Helly a top 5 league goalie.

Recipe for a good team.

Thats without
Buff
Little
Appleton
.
Some of the other injuries that can and will replace others who are currently in the line up

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’ve noticed that the Jets have historically played better team defence when they are missing a lot of d-men to injury. More care is taken on team defensive play.

Maybe that’s one factor this year. Maybe feathers were unruffled. Laine is getting his opportunities. Wheeler at C is giving us two solid lines. Roslovic has stepped up. Getting rid of an anti-team player like Trouba may have helped cohesion. And someone mentioned his recently but with Buff out and Wheeler being more chill, maybe the locker room is easier for the young players.

On paper, we sometimes like at how we did one year and then expect we will do better/worse based on some changes or growth in young players. That just doesn’t happen so cleanly. The mental part of the team often impacts things.

I don’t know what happened last year with the team’s mindset but they somehow fixed it this year and are doing well despite the talent downgrade.

Really can’t point to one factor. This is a collective team change that is making us successful.

You are not the first to notice the Jets team play improving when the D is weaker on paper. I keep hoping each time they will learn to continue the good team play when the D gets better, for whatever reason. Maybe this is the time.

I think we have a tendency to look too much at individual players - stars - and forget how much of a team game hockey really is.

 

[Gm0ney]

Hellybuck makes the defense look better than it actually is...if hellybuck had a .910/15 , would everybody be saying that the dense is really rounding out in form?

Would the defense even have a chance to round out into form if not for the stellar goaltending? When your goalie isn't making stops, the wheels can come right off in a big hurry.

At 5v5, according to HockeyViz the Jets are giving up 7% more than average in their own zone:

Well that doesn't seem so bad...but in fact, it's 3rd worst in the NHL behind only NYR (+21 wtf are you doing, Rangers?) and Chicago (+13). The Isles and the Sharks are tied for 4th worst in the league with +3.

 

[Saidin]

Like this.

Yea... How'd you do it?

 

[Guffman]

Good post Guff. The goalie is part of the team, not apart from the team.

Still, given the subject of this thread it is appropriate to look at goaltending but maybe the 'what if' should consider if Helle was just playing to his contract rather than exceeding it. He is getting 6 mil and playing like 10. What if his sv% was in the .915-.920 range?

I think Helle's play is the biggest single reason for our good record. But there are several other lesser contributors and that has to include coaching.

Morty, if Hellebuyck is the 6th highest paid player, it’s reasonable to expect he would be the sixth best goalie. The sixth best goalie has a GAA of .931, .003 less than Hellebuyck. So, if Helly simply played to his contract, we still are where we are.

You ask where would we be if he was a .915 to .920 goalie, which would rank him in the 14th to 22nd ranking. In other words, where would we be if Hellebuyck was an average to below average goalie?

Well, obviously not where we are.

What’s the base line of expected performance and should we be giving major kudos for matching expected performance?

 

[DRW204]

the Jets are 31st in xGA at 5v5 for the season , and 21st at all strengths.

the Jets are 8th best in both all strengths and 5v5 for GA

Praise Helle

 

[Guffman]

You are not the first to notice the Jets team play improving when the D is weaker on paper. I keep hoping each time they will learn to continue the good team play when the D gets better, for whatever reason. Maybe this is the time.

I think we have a tendency to look too much at individual players - stars - and forget how much of a team game hockey really is.

I think players think that regular season is for stats and contracts and the playoffs are separate and apart (thus, a more responsible game).

This year, we don’t have the luxury to play for stats plus we don’t have any major players in a contract year.

Definitely more of a team game being played. Perhaps good lessons learned last year.

 

[Guffman]

I'd say at least as much as Mike Milbury, who was a player, coach and GM for many years at the highest levels of the sport. Haven't heard about his vote for the Jack yet.

Button was also praising Maurice. He may not win, but if the Jets keep this up, he’ll get some votes.

 

[Atoyot]

You are not the first to notice the Jets team play improving when the D is weaker on paper. I keep hoping each time they will learn to continue the good team play when the D gets better, for whatever reason. Maybe this is the time.

I think we have a tendency to look too much at individual players - stars - and forget how much of a team game hockey really is.

This is common not just for us. There's something about a rag tag crew banding together and over performing for a stretch, but it generally doesn't last long term. Could be that the players can see the weakness so they adjust their game accordingly to compensate, but eventually they become comfortable again and fall back onto bad habits.

Real life example that I've seen over and over again is a team having a weaker goalie start for them, so the whole team puts more effort into limiting high danger chances. I had a player once have to start 3 games over a season because our starter couldn't go, guy wasn't a goalie and it was very obvious but we were in a pinch, posted 2 shutouts in his 3 games. Our starter, who is a legitimately good goalie, hadn't posted a shutout in over 2 20+ game seasons up to that point. We've seen it with Hutchinson's and Brossoit's runs with the Jets too, team plays differently in front of a backup when they don't entirely trust them, then they become complacent and return to their game and the goalie returns to their normal numbers.

 

[Duke749]

Morty, if Hellebuyck is the 6th highest paid player, it’s reasonable to expect he would be the sixth best goalie. The sixth best goalie has a GAA of .931, .003 less than Hellebuyck. So, if Helly simply played to his contract, we still are where we are.

You ask where would we be if he was a .915 to .920 goalie, which would rank him in the 14th to 22nd ranking. In other words, where would we be if Hellebuyck was an average to below average goalie?

Well, obviously not where we are.

What’s the base line of expected performance and should we be giving major kudos for matching expected performance?

Is .915 - .920 average to below average save percentage?

Considering that guys get signed to new contracts every year with a different cap I wouldn’t say using pay as a gauge as very reasonable.

Helly is part of the team but without goaltending it’s extremely hard to compensate for it if you don’t have it.

 

[Guffman]

Is .915 - .920 average to below average save percentage?

Considering that guys get signed to new contracts every year with a different cap I wouldn’t say using pay as a gauge as very reasonable.

Helly is part of the team but without goaltending it’s extremely hard to compensate for it if you don’t have it.

If you filter the save % for goalies that have played 9 or more games (default setting on NHL.com, .915 to .920 average places a goalie 14th to 22nd, like I stated.

Agreed that in terms of goalie compensation, it should be based on % of cap... Helly would have had a higher % of cap when he signed it versus just using a straight AAV of today. That all said, he is still paid as an elite goaltender.

And agreed again that goaltending is very important. We got a good one and we're paying high compensation for him (that leaves less $'s for the rest of the team).

 

[Adam da bomb]

If you filter the save % for goalies that have played 9 or more games (default setting on NHL.com, .915 to .920 average places a goalie 14th to 22nd, like I stated.

Agreed that in terms of goalie compensation, it should be based on % of cap... Helly would have had a higher % of cap when he signed it versus just using a straight AAV of today. That all said, he is still paid as an elite goaltender.

And agreed again that goaltending is very important. We got a good one and we're paying high compensation for him (that leaves less $'s for the rest of the team).

But right now he’s better bang for the buck than most of our guys. If that’s what 6 mil buys you than Wheeler, Connor, Schief all owe the team some money.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Morty, if Hellebuyck is the 6th highest paid player, it’s reasonable to expect he would be the sixth best goalie. The sixth best goalie has a GAA of .931, .003 less than Hellebuyck. So, if Helly simply played to his contract, we still are where we are.

You ask where would we be if he was a .915 to .920 goalie, which would rank him in the 14th to 22nd ranking. In other words, where would we be if Hellebuyck was an average to below average goalie?

Well, obviously not where we are.

What’s the base line of expected performance and should we be giving major kudos for matching expected performance?

You are counting non-starter goalies. Helle is 2nd among starters. The 6th starter is MAF at .919.

IDK for sure, but I doubt average is above .915. I chose that range to put him at avg, or a little above. The avg of the top 31 goalie contracts is 5,388,172. That doesn't match perfectly with the list of 31 starters but it is close. So Helle is a little above avg for starters. That should be a fairly close match to that .915-.920 range of bang for the buck. The 2nd highest paid goalie is Bobrovsky at 10 mil. His sv% is way down at .884 (ouch!)

I agree that there are several factors contributing to our record to date - but the biggest single one is Helle's performance - And I guess we can say, add whatever is enabling him to perform so well, whatever that is.

 

[Gm0ney]

If you filter the save % for goalies that have played 9 or more games (default setting on NHL.com, .915 to .920 average places a goalie 14th to 22nd, like I stated.

Agreed that in terms of goalie compensation, it should be based on % of cap... Helly would have had a higher % of cap when he signed it versus just using a straight AAV of today. That all said, he is still paid as an elite goaltender.

And agreed again that goaltending is very important. We got a good one and we're paying high compensation for him (that leaves less $'s for the rest of the team).

Hellebuyck got about average starter money (15th in terms of cap hit percentage at time of signing - he's now 11th because some big cap hit% contracts expired or were bought out since July 2018), but he's an above-average starter. So, the Jets are actually paying below fair market value for him.

The market for goalies may be a bit screwy, but in terms of that market, the Jets are getting a lot of bang for their buck.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is common not just for us. There's something about a rag tag crew banding together and over performing for a stretch, but it generally doesn't last long term. Could be that the players can see the weakness so they adjust their game accordingly to compensate, but eventually they become comfortable again and fall back onto bad habits.

Real life example that I've seen over and over again is a team having a weaker goalie start for them, so the whole team puts more effort into limiting high danger chances. I had a player once have to start 3 games over a season because our starter couldn't go, guy wasn't a goalie and it was very obvious but we were in a pinch, posted 2 shutouts in his 3 games. Our starter, who is a legitimately good goalie, hadn't posted a shutout in over 2 20+ game seasons up to that point. We've seen it with Hutchinson's and Brossoit's runs with the Jets too, team plays differently in front of a backup when they don't entirely trust them, then they become complacent and return to their game and the goalie returns to their normal numbers.

Yup. I even heard there was an NHL team that won a game with an accountant in goal. Sure must have been embarrassing for that other team ..... whoever they were.

The thing is that teams discover a winning formula. If they could learn to apply that formula when they have their "A" team, they just might win a Cup.

 

[Guffman]

But right now he’s better bang for the buck than most of our guys. If that’s what 6 mil buys you than Wheeler, Connor, Schief all owe the team some money.

The concession that I will make is that I recognize goaltender performance can vary quite a bit from year to year for a particular player. Would I pay Hellebuyck $8M or $9M a year if I got guaranteed performance that he is delivering this year? Yep. Would I pay Hellebuyck just north of $6M (his current contract) for the performance he delivered last year? Nope.

Maybe in that context, I'll be a sport and concede off my position and give a chunk of kudos to Helly for this year's success.