Reason for Hawks' early success?

[Esq]

Unless you were all-in for the tank, we've all been pleasantly surprised by the Hawks play of late. Stronger forecheck, quicker attack, more balanced lines, better team defense and (gasp) finishing checks. The question is ... why?

Possible candidates:
1. Less pressure on the team; we were supposed to suck this year, so anything positive is gravy.
2. The new players are just plain better than what we had before.
3. The team is finally buying in to JC's coaching style.
4. Injuries to Toews/Dach means that everyone on offense needs to be more accountable because Kane himself cannot carry the load.
5. This is a complete aberration and our team actually sucks.

Note that I don't think the answer is Lankinen, because even with strong goaltending last year, we were awful.

Thoughts?

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[Kaners Bald Spot]

Unless you were all-in for the tank, we've all been pleasantly surprised by the Hawks play of late. Stronger forecheck, quicker attack, more balanced lines, better team defense and (gasp) finishing checks. The question is ... why?

Possible candidates:
1. Less pressure on the team; we were supposed to suck this year, so anything positive is gravy.
2. The new players are just plain better than what we had before.
3. The team is finally buying in to JC's coaching style.
4. Injuries to Toews/Dach means that everyone on offense needs to be more accountable because Kane himself cannot carry the load.
5. This is a complete aberration and our team actually sucks.

Note that I don't think the answer is Lankinen, because even with strong goaltending last year, we were awful.

Thoughts?

I'd wait until after March is over to make any sort of proclamation because that schedule is brutal

I lean toward the idea that the goaltending is keeping them afloat because I haven't seen a game in a couple weeks where the Hawks carried play. They didn't even carry play the last two games against Detroit. I'm not ready to declare them a good team until they start carrying play again.

So, based on what I've seen so far, the answer is #5. If you can't carry play against Detroit, you suck.

There's talent here, no doubt....but it is very raw, especially on the back end. I'm not trying to piss on anyone's parade, but the Hawks are both in a schedule soft spot and overachieving simultaneously. There are a ton of good signs, and also I think everything you listed is correct.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

6. All of the above.

 

[Hawkaholic]

A lot of it is a really good PP and solid goaltending. But the way a lot of the players are playing, is the way you want to see teams with a lack of skill play. If this team can add more top talent, or develop it properly, playing this way will pay off.

Right now they remind me a bit like Columbus when they upset TB. Just hard work with not as much skill, but still find a way to stay in games.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Jeremy Colliton

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

It took pretty much everything going very right.

 

[WeAreSoPucked]

Hawks are 2nd in the league (behind legit contender BOS) in combined special teams (PP% + PK%); and smack dab in the middle, 16th, goal differential. (Very unfancy stats via NHL dot com, but a keep-it-simple-silly quick rule of thumb overview of clubs' performance.)

This tells me tho, another important stat, 5 on 5 goals, the Hawks below average and unless improved, eventually that deficiency will show up in the W-L numbers.
So, how to do so?

Well, of course, #19 and/or Dach coming back but I'm not counting on either, tho only want to be wrong there.
Don't want to rush the young man back and Jonny - assuming & hopeful it isn't medical - might be he's just lost interest. There is precedence, couple years back was a STL (or was it BUF) player just up and stopped playing. Walked away from hockey.

What's really left for Toews to accomplish?
His trophy room literally has every award any jock could ever desire, including an Olympic gold medal. And assuming he's not running buddies w/ EKane, have to believe, $$$s-wise set for life. And then some prolly ten lifetimes over.

Could say, if their "generational" 2C decides he's going to actually battle for a puck or dedicate himself to winning FOs, that would result in improved even strength play but - no offense to Musto - I've given up waiting for Strome to live up to his potential. Is what it is and will gladly admit being wrong should #17 prove me so.

Where then, does that leave this club? A fun ride for a bit longer here and then - most likely - the rooks hit a wall (hey it happens) and DAL, CBJ, & maybe even NSH overtake them the final playoff spot. (TBL, CAR, FLA assumed 1,2,3 in the Central.)

But who knows? I'm up for finding out; this club is a blast to watch. Hagel alone makes it fun. The other rookies too. Kurashev's score last night was highlight reel stuff league-wise. And Beaudin & Mitchell, both's maturity is remarkable to watch.

Lankinen? Let's ride that pony boys ... I'm old enough remember Tony-O. He won the Vezina his rookie year. A hot goalie's run CAN last an entire season long.

And we have another lock Hall of Famer actually playing right now to boot. And a Cat looking like a legit all-star now, as well.

So, WhoTF knows anyways? I've half senile now & I can easily "forget" any stinker outings to come. I'm up for the fun this bunch of beauties have in 'em!
GoHawks.

 

[nmgrbhfn]

No. 2 through addition by subtraction and other reasons. First, a lot of Hawks fans are loyal to the SC core, but in comparison to other cores, they seemed to reach their use-by date more quickly. Kane and Keith are the last standing right now, and as the others have been eliminated from the roster, the team has gotten better (even during this season when a former stalwart went down to a recurring problem).

In addition, the front office and coaching staff are on the same page so you don't have a problem like in prior years where the roster didn't make any sense. Q and Bowman simply had different ideas on how to assemble a roster.

Further, it seems to me that the Hawks org thought it would be a good idea to form a US heavy team with greater Chicago contacts (NOT a hockey consideration). The org got burned when the Schmaltz, Hino, Hartman and Hayden roster didn't get the job done, and it took some time to extract the team from that self-imposed predicament. Now fans have seen the team pass on players with Chicago connections and to focus solely on talent, regardless of where it comes from. The Hawks org also has been proficient in developing talent through non-traditional routes.

 

[HawksDub89]

Special teams.

5v5 numbers are problematic.

I’m just enjoying the development of the young players, the wins are a nice byproduct of them playing well.

we’ll see if this is sustainable.

 

[Illinihockey]

Hawks have 18 power play goals, thats a huge reason. Something tells me they can't keep up that PP goal a game pace.

 

[Illinihockey]

U
Note that I don't think the answer is Lankinen, because even with strong goaltending last year, we were awful.

Last year Crawford and Lehner had a .917 save%, Lakinen is at .931. .931 would have been tops in the entire NHL last year.

 

[Esq]

Last year Crawford and Lehner had a .917 save%, Lakinen is at .931. .931 would have been tops in the entire NHL last year.

Agreed, but .917 is solid as well.

 

[hawksfan50]

1. GOOD Goaltending= 70% of winning..

2. Team no longer divided into Coubtry Ckib 1 way vets who only ojay 10 minutes hard in a game vs. tge grunts...now Team must buy in tosuport each other on shift..

3 Special teans good even if 5x5 is meh to poor...

4.Opps all thought Hawks were a cellar team..so psychologically not being their best games..

5.Hockey gods smiling on us now in close games.

Is this sustainable given the putrid 5x5 play stats showing us losing that Even game almost every game?

 

[JaegerDice]

If I had to break it down, I'd say:

75% goaltending = The truth is, none of the underlying numbers are pretty for the Blackhawks. And that makes complete sense considering they're playing without their #1C, #2C, probably their second-best Dman and a bunch of kids on the back end. And team in that situation is going to have the puck less than the other guys on most nights. Lankinen has been a revelation. Given he has no NHL track record, I have no idea if he can keep it up. But it's almost entirely him.

15 % Jeremy Colliton = I found myself wondering if having both Toews and Seabrook on IR has actually helped Colliton take more control of the lockerroom. Not by force or anything, but simply having two guys that typically take up a lot of oxygen either completely gone or on the periphery (I've heard Seabrook is still hanging around the team even though he's not playing) created a vacuum for somebody to fill. Suddenly instead of looking to the big name vets, the biggest voices in the room for over a decade, the new guy coach is the guy they're looking to first instead. And the fact that Kane, who's probably the most vocal vet on the team right now, has basically openly supported Colliton from day 1, helps insulate and amplify. I still have problems with the mechanics of a man-to-man system on a team with a lack of foot-speed, but it's clear that every guy on the roster is busting their ass every single minute and are buying into what he's preaching.

10% Talent better than expected = There were a lot of question marks as far as the skaters on this team, and outside of a down year from DeHaan so far, Strome being exactly what he's always been and Zadorov being pretty meh at best, pretty much everybody up and down the roster has out-performed expectations.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Last year Crawford and Lehner had a .917 save%, Lakinen is at .931. .931 would have been tops in the entire NHL last year.

Our sv% this year, is 0.006 higher than last year (0.919 this year vs 0.913 last year). That's like, 1.5 goals, total.

 

[Illinihockey]

Our sv% this year, is 0.006 higher than last year (0.919 this year vs 0.913 last year). That's like, 1.5 goals, total.

9 of the Hawks 18 games have been 1 goal games, that doesn't include games like last night where its a one goal game and the Hawks get an empty net goal. 1.5 goals approximates to 2-4 points won. Having 18 points in 18 games (approx 82 points in a 82 game season) vs having 22 points in 18 games (approx 100 points in a 82 game season) is a big deal.

 

[giza]

Ex-Lax in the opponents water cooler each game.

 

[Brightwing]

Don't forget special teams. Our PP% is 32.7 (2nd) and our PK% is 82.1 (11th). Is it sustainable? Who knows. Probably not in absolute numbers on the PP side, but perhaps relative to the league. Last year we finished with an 82.1 PK% (9th) and a 15.2 PP% (28th). So in a close game scoring those PP goals makes a difference. Certainly our PK seems sustainable if it's essential the same rate as last year.

 

[Hawkaholic]

9 of the Hawks 18 games have been 1 goal games, that doesn't include games like last night where its a one goal game and the Hawks get an empty net goal. 1.5 goals approximates to 2-4 points won. Having 18 points in 18 games (approx 82 points in a 82 game season) vs having 22 points in 18 games (approx 100 points in a 82 game season) is a big deal.

It equates to 2 points, or maybe it's a goal in one of the games where we didn't just win by 1 goal and equates to 0 more points. I don't expect the Hawks to be as good as they are all season anyway, so not sure what your point is. So far, it isn't just goaltending, because the goaltending is very, very similar to last year where they had a much worse record.

 

[SimpleJack]

1. The new goalie

2. The coaching

3. The new faces at forward ALL performing well(Suter, Kurashev, Hagel, Soderberg, Janmark), thus giving us solid forward depth despite not having Dach and Toews(and now Shaw too).

4. The young defenseman holding their own, and adding depth to the blueline

5. The PP

6. Cat bouncing back

7. Kane remaining elite

Those 7 factors have combined to put us where we are right now.

 

[JaegerDice]

It equates to 2 points, or maybe it's a goal in one of the games where we didn't just win by 1 goal and equates to 0 more points. I don't expect the Hawks to be as good as they are all season anyway, so not sure what your point is. So far, it isn't just goaltending, because the goaltending is very, very similar to last year where they had a much worse record.

I mean, are we talking about team goaltending, or are we talking about one guy?

Lankinen is responsible for 7 of the Blackhawks 9 wins, and he's played 9 of their games, with a .931 SV% and 2.29 GAA (which is a team stat, granted).

The other two goalies together have just over half as many games played (5), 2 wins (both Subban), and a combined .890 SV% and a combined 5.15 GAA.

Considering Lankinen was the 3rd goalie to get a look, this seems a pretty clear case of before and after over this admittedly short sample.

The Blackhawks started winning when the SV% behind them reached elite status.

How long it stays there is another question entirely.

 

[Brightwing]

Ok. Because I'm a giant nerd, I pulled up our scoring to compare the first 18 games of last season to this one.

Here's last year: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And here is this year: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

-Kane has the same number of points (23) and is as consistent AF. He had two more goals last year but two fewer assists.
-Debrincat has two more points (17 total) in four fewer games and four more goals.
-Dylan Strome has the same number of goals (4) but his assists dropped from 11 to 4.
-In one more game, Kubalik has one more goal and six more assists for a total of twice as many points as last year with 14 this year.
-Saad, Toews, Dach and Nylander had 30 points combined in the first 18 games last year including 14 goals. This year Janmark, Suter and Kurashev have 29 points including 17 goals.

TL/DR When it comes to our top producers, Kane is the same, Debrincat and Kubalik are better, Strome is worse and the new guys have made up for the loss of the injured/traded top six players.

 

[ClydeLee]

I mean, are we talking about team goaltending, or are we talking about one guy?

Lankinen is responsible for 7 of the Blackhawks 9 wins, and he's played 9 of their games, with a .931 SV% and 2.29 GAA (which is a team stat, granted).

The other two goalies together have just over half as many games played (5), 2 wins (both Subban), and a combined .890 SV% and a combined 5.15 GAA.

Considering Lankinen was the 3rd goalie to get a look, this seems a pretty clear case of before and after over this admittedly short sample.

The Blackhawks started winning when the SV% behind them reached elite status.

How long it stays there is another question entirely.

Subban himself is .917 despite his first game. To take him and Delia together just seems intentionally misleading. Beyond the 1st game Subban has 3 good games in net and a OT loss and 2 wins.

So yes, other than just the first 4 games. It's total team goaltending in that context.

 

[JaegerDice]

Subban himself is .917 despite his first game. To take him and Delia together just seems intentionally misleading. Beyond the 1st game Subban has 3 good games in net and a OT loss and 2 wins.

So yes, other than just the first 4 games. It's total team goaltending in that context.

I combined them because, as I said, they have a combined 5 games played between them. Each goalie's individual sample is so small as to be irrelevant. ANY goalie in the NHL can have 2 or 3 excellent or terrible games.

Which is not to same any of the samples we're working with are ideal, but at the very least we can see a clear delineation between Lankinen and not-Lankinen. Even if you want to pretend Subban could continue to put up a .917 for the rest of the season, that's still a long way from .931.

 

[Pez68]

Compete goes a long way.