Speculation: Realistically, what would have been a package commensurate with 1-Year of EK65?

[WhatTheDuck]

REalistically? Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd.

I dont get the point of this thread. We speculated for months what he should go for. We found out yesterday what one year of him is realistically worth.

For me it's just not quite that simple. We've seen what they managed to return after backing themselves into a corner and allowing most of the suitors to move on. I can't be convinced there weren't better offers available back in the spring when more teams were involved, and that this whole thing wasn't terribly mismanaged in away that completely voided Ottawa of any leverage.

To summarize, I think what we've seen is just about the worst case scenario for what one year of a player of this caliber should fetch, less than what we should generally expect under more normal circumstances.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I would have offered Meier, Merkley, Norris, 2020 1st, 2019 2nd, and a conditional 2021 1st based on us re-signing him. I honestly would have.

I was extremely high on Karlsson and wanted him more than Tavares even if we had to give a package like this. I really have no idea how nobody beat our offer. This is the best defenseman in the NHL and a top-5 player in the NHL. We saw what he did against Ottawa.

As that one famous economist, John Maynard Keyes I believe, said: “In the long run, we are all dead”. Yes, it’s possible that Karlsson doesn’t re-sign, and that you don’t win the Stanley Cup in the year he is there. But in the NHL, a league where only 1 team out of 31 can truly say that they were successful, and where success is something so beautiful and delicious that many of us never experience, you MUST take chances! When a player like Karlsson, who almost carried the 2016-2017 Senators kicking and screaming into the f***ing Cup Finals, becomes available at the age of 28, you have to take a chance!

 

[Clayonator]

As much as Ottawa got crapped on yesterday (including by me), I’m sure they took the best package offered to them so they did the right thing by taking it. It was well know that Karlsson was on the trade block all summer. It seems like he wasn’t willing to re-sign right away which killed his trade value. From the Stars I said the deal would have had to be this;

Dellandra (2018 1st)
Honka (2014 1st, 3rd pair)
2019 1st
2020 2nd
Shore (2012 2nd, 3rd liner)
Caamano (2015 5th)
Conditional picks

Three 1sts and two 2nds is a lot for a player that may leave. Even though there is a chance that all of these pieces could amount to nothing it’s a lot to trade, particularly when you could get a deadline rental for cheaper.

I think in retrospect, Honka looks pretty damn good right now.

 

[Clayonator]

I would have offered Meier, Merkley, Norris, 2020 1st, 2019 2nd, and a conditional 2021 1st based on us re-signing him. I honestly would have.

I was extremely high on Karlsson and wanted him more than Tavares even if we had to give a package like this. I really have no idea how nobody beat our offer. This is the best defenseman in the NHL and a top-5 player in the NHL. We saw what he did against Ottawa.

As that one famous economist, John Maynard Keyes I believe, said: “In the long run, we are all dead”. Yes, it’s possible that Karlsson doesn’t re-sign, and that you don’t win the Stanley Cup in the year he is there. But in the NHL, a league where only 1 team out of 31 can truly say that they were successful, and where success is something so beautiful and delicious that many of us never experience, you MUST take chances! When a player like Karlsson, who almost carried the 2016-2017 Senators kicking and screaming into the ****ing Cup Finals, becomes available at the age of 28, you have to take a chance!

To be honest, from a Sharks return perspective, if Meier had been included in some capacity I would have been a lot less concerned about the other assets coming back. That’s the quality type of centre piece we needed.

 

[CanadienShark]

They got a very good package deal for him. Honestly better than I expected.

It's a big package of pretty good pieces, but none really has a good shot at being a top line player let alone star. It could turn out well, but as it stands today, the Sharks are winners.

 

[CanadienShark]

To be honest, from a Sharks return perspective, if Meier had been included in some capacity I would have been a lot less concerned about the other assets coming back. That’s the quality type of centre piece we needed.

We all speculated on the Sharks board something along the lines of Couture + 1st, Meier + 1st + prospect, Hertl + prospect, Merkley + Labanc + 1st, etc.

So at least one high end piece.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

To be honest, from a Sharks return perspective, if Meier had been included in some capacity I would have been a lot less concerned about the other assets coming back. That’s the quality type of centre piece we needed.

Meier is awesome but he’s always going to be a complementary guy on a 1st line. He’s the F1 - the first forechecker - with great puck possession skills and physicality. I don’t think he has the scoring touch to ever be the goal scorer on an elite 1st line, nor the playmaking ability to be the playmaker on an elite 1st line. But I do think he is a hell of a player and I was convinced he was gone when I saw that Karlsson had been traded.

 

[Starat327]

For me it's just not quite that simple. We've seen what they managed to return after backing themselves into a corner and allowing most of the suitors to move on. I can't be convinced there weren't better offers available back in the spring when more teams were involved, and that this whole thing wasn't terribly mismanaged in away that completely voided Ottawa of any leverage.

To summarize, I think what we've seen is just about the worst case scenario for what one year of a player of this caliber should fetch, less than what we should generally expect under more normal circumstances.

Right, but these factors - mismanagement, bad optics, etc - are all part of the 'realistic' scenario that exists. I mean, if you take all that away, EK probably isnt available in the first place, no?

 

[StreetHawk]

For me it's just not quite that simple. We've seen what they managed to return after backing themselves into a corner and allowing most of the suitors to move on. I can't be convinced there weren't better offers available back in the spring when more teams were involved, and that this whole thing wasn't terribly mismanaged in away that completely voided Ottawa of any leverage.

To summarize, I think what we've seen is just about the worst case scenario for what one year of a player of this caliber should fetch, less than what we should generally expect under more normal circumstances.

It all comes down to the sens actually having asked EK would he extend with the acquiring team if they wait to move him this summer. If the answer was no, then they should have seat him at the TDL to give the new team 2 playoff runs if he wanted to hit the market in 2019.

2 options were hit ufa this get 2 shots at cup but he market is narrow of where you can go. Or take the security of a long term deal in the summer when teams can extend you and open up more teams to acquire you.

If his choice was hit the market then that decides the option to take.

 

[Clamshells]

As much as Ottawa got crapped on yesterday (including by me), I’m sure they took the best package offered to them so they did the right thing by taking it. It was well know that Karlsson was on the trade block all summer. It seems like he wasn’t willing to re-sign right away which killed his trade value.

Based on how the Hoffman trade played out, you can't even be sure of that.

 

[FerrisRox]

I mean, its pretty common for people to talk frameworks/how interested, etc. But it doesnt look like they were to get anything concrete done - MAxPac's deal was signed like 8 hours after they acquired him, so there was obviously some negotiation there first. But the condition of the conditional pick where if he plays in the east ottawa gets another pick seems to insinuate they didnt have anything done.

This is just my personal opinion so take it with a grain of salt, (and as i type this he's probably watching the ink dry on a contract) but i think EK is gonna test the waters unless he falls in love with san Jose.

I would be very surprised if the puck drops on this season without him already being extended.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

REalistically? Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd.

I dont get the point of this thread. We speculated for months what he should go for. We found out yesterday what one year of him is realistically worth.

So I guess Larsson is worth Hall?

 

[Vegan Knight]

I would be very surprised if the puck drops on this season without him already being extended.

If this were Dallas I would be more confident in that.

I don't believe that Dallas wouldn't have outbid SJ's offer (without even giving up the pieces they were refusing the whole time) if they thought he was open to signing before July 1.

Dallas would be more attractive to EK, I would have to believe, in most ways to SJ and Ottawa would have certainly looked for a better return and, after the Hoffman stuff, had no reason to help SJ by not shopping their offer back to Dallas.

If EK were willing to re-sign with anyone (besides Tampa but Ottawa didn't want that) then I think it would have been Dallas well before SJ and they would have been all over cut price Karlsson for more than a year.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I would be very surprised if the puck drops on this season without him already being extended.

I doubt it happens that soon but I do expect him to be extended at some point before the trade deadline.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Right, but these factors - mismanagement, bad optics, etc - are all part of the 'realistic' scenario that exists. I mean, if you take all that away, EK probably isnt available in the first place, no?

I think if Ottawa just merely decided to undertake a rebuild and traded Karlsson early in the off season under more normal circumstances, they would have been able to fetch more. Instead we saw this ridiculous circus drag out all summer until they were backed into a corner and losing leverage by every hour closing in on the start of camp.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that I do think you can get a better return for one year of a player of this caliber if you don't wait until your market is nearly depleted. I see this trade as being botched in execution a lot more so than I see it being a reflection of the value of (one year of) Karlsson.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I would be very surprised if the puck drops on this season without him already being extended.

I doubt it happens that soon but I do expect him to be extended at some point before the trade deadline.

 

[CraigsList]

Highly doubt SJ doesn’t resign him.

Agreed. I think they’ll have every intention to.

No Tierney contract, trading Braun and signing Thornton to a 1m contract easily gets them Karlsson for 11-12 million. If Thornton was willing to take a discount for Tavares, I don’t see why he wouldn’t take a discount for a top 3 defenseman in the NHL.

 

[blinkman360]

I think it's safe to assume that he would have brought back more value had Dorion not kept him off limits from half the league. Not sure if that was his call or Melnyk's, though.

 

[Starat327]

I think if Ottawa just merely decided to undertake a rebuild and traded Karlsson early in the off season under more normal circumstances, they would have been able to fetch more. Instead we saw this ridiculous circus drag out all summer until they were backed into a corner and losing leverage by every hour closing in on the start of camp.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that I do think you can get a better return for one year of a player of this caliber if you don't wait until your market is nearly depleted. I see this trade as being botched in execution a lot more so than I see it being a reflection of the value of (one year of) Karlsson.

I dont necessarily disagree, but at the end of the day, this is what they got because of how they handled it. I think they might have gotten more if they were willing to trade to an East team, etc. But trying to discuss that value is a) moot and b) kinda senseless, since we know what the sens fans ask was (Point+) and what he was traded for. Theres a WHOLE lot of wiggle room in between those two, and getting someone to agree on what it was seems like an exercise in futility - especially around here.

 

[4thline]

Meant to post this here and not the trade thread

Forsberg as a ppg C rental -1st+3rd+ NHL ready top 9 forward (Upshall)+ Prospect stay at home D (Parent)
Sundin as a ppg C rental - (Rumoured) 1st+2nd+top 6 forward (Higgins)+ Prospect (Grabo)
Brian Leetch as one of top offensive D's in the game- 1st+2nd+ 2x depth prospects
Hossa as one of the top forwards in the game - 1st+Prospect+2x 3rd line forwards

Should EK's return scaled up from this due to his age/the full season/ his betterness, yes. But as a rental it was never going to be a franchise changing return. It never is. And that's before factoring in how much more teams understand the value of youth now in the salary cap era.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Disagree. I think they’ll have every intention to.

No Tierney contract, trading Braun and signing Thornton to a 1m contract easily gets them Karlsson for 11-12 million. If Thornton was willing to take a discount for Tavares, I don’t see why he wouldn’t take a discount for a top 3 defenseman in the NHL.

I think you misread the post you quoted. That person was saying they thought SJ will re-sign him. I personally don't. Of course they want to but EK definitely will need to weigh many, very attractive, options.

I think SJ is competitive for the next 3 or 4 seasons even with EK and maybe never the absolute favorites, even in their own conference. A Karlsson extension would lock him up for 8 years.

I put it at around 25% because maybe EK falls in love with the Bay Area and Wilson convinces him he would definitely trade him in the last four years of a new contract to a contender when SJ fall off if he doesn't have a Cup with them by then.

 

[Canada4Gold]

His fair value is what he got. That's the definition of fair value, what he can get on the market. If you want people to tell you he should have gotten more that's fine, but what he got was the fair market value with the restrictions Dorian likely out on himself(trading him West)

 

[agentblack]

Haha i love it. HF cant handle they dont know sh!t

 

[Kranix]

*emerges from bog
Let's talk about state taxes!

 

[FerrisRox]

If this were Dallas I would be more confident in that.

I don't believe that Dallas wouldn't have outbid SJ's offer (without even giving up the pieces they were refusing the whole time) if they thought he was open to signing before July 1.

Dallas would be more attractive to EK, I would have to believe, in most ways to SJ and Ottawa would have certainly looked for a better return and, after the Hoffman stuff, had no reason to help SJ by not shopping their offer back to Dallas.

If EK were willing to re-sign with anyone (besides Tampa but Ottawa didn't want that) then I think it would have been Dallas well before SJ and they would have been all over cut price Karlsson for more than a year.

Why would he prefer Dallas to San Jose?