Realistic Expectations

[SCD]

What should be the expectation from each draft?

It is interesting to review the results of previous drafts on Hockeydb.com. So few players play a single NHL game

When it comes to defenseman, rarely is there an impact player drafted after the second round.

However, championship teams are built on finding these mid-to-late round gems in the salary cap era. May these first 4 picks have an impact.

Click to read more...

 

[Frk It]

Pretty vague question... not sure what you are looking for exactly.

Odds of hitting on picks?
Best draft strategy?
Certain players to key in on?

 

[Redder Winger]

Top 5 - Hope for a franchise player. Should get a core player.
If it falls top 7th or whatever, still have to hope for first pairing D. But there's always the chance he's less than that, or maybe even a bust.

27th overall *Vegas
---
Here the picks from 2003 to 2012 at 27th
03 - Tambellini - 242 games
04 - Jeff Schultz -409 games
05 - Joe Finley - 21 games
06 -Ivan Visnevsky - 5 games
07- Brendan Smith - 309 games
08 - John Carlson - 526 games
09 - Phillipe Paradis - 0 games
10 - Mark Visentin - 1 game
11- Vlad Namestnikov - 201 games
12 - Henrik Samuelsson 3 games.

10 years.
1 top pairing D.
1 top 6 forward
3 depth guys
5 guys with no NHL career to speak of.

----
33rd overall *Ottawa
03- Louie Eriksson 790 gmaes
04- Chris Bourque 51 games
05- James Neal 632 games
06- Igor Makarov 0 games
07- Taylor Ellington 0 games
08- Phil McRae 15 games
09- Ryan OReilly 570 games
10- John McFarland 3 games
11- Rocco Grimaldi 31 games
12- Sebastian Collberg 0 games

2 top 6 wingers.
1 top 6 center
7 busts
-----------------------

37th Detroit
--
03- Kevin Klein 627 games
04- David Dhantz 0 games
05- Scott Jackson 1 game
06- Yuri Alexandrov 0 games
07- Stefan Legein 0 games
08- Cody Goloubef 129 games
09- Mat Clark 9 games
10-Justin Faulk 401 games
11- Boone Jenner 267 games
12- Pontus Aberg 15 games

1 top pairing D (being generous)
1 depth D
1 middle six forward
1 AHL/NHL tweener
==========================
Realistically, in your top 4 picks you should expect
1 core player. Outside shot at a franchise player. (with a higher chance of failure the lower it gets)
And perhaps one top 6 winger or top 4 defenseman.
And two busts.

 

[DetroitRed]

So, according to Redder Winger's lists...

27th picks have averaged 171.7 NHL games (closest match: *Namestnikov @ 201 games).
33rd picks have averaged 209.2 NHL games (closest match: Chris Bourque @ 51 games).
37th picks have averaged 144.9 NHL games (closest match: Goloubef @ 129 games).

*active

 

[Redder Winger]

So, according to Redder Winger's lists...

27th picks have averaged 171.7 NHL games (closest match: *Namestnikov @ 201 games).
33rd picks have averaged 209.2 NHL games (closest match: Chris Bourque @ 51 games).
37th picks have averaged 144.9 NHL games (closest match: Goloubef @ 129 games).

*active

If you come away with Namestnikov and a top pairing D, that's not bad.
But it's not the visions of sugar plums some dream of.

 

[BinCookin]

I look at it a little differently.

Each pick has a 70-80% chance of busting.
We should be happy if any of them turn into something useful.

 

[Frk It]

I look at it a little differently.

Each pick has a 70-80% chance of busting.
We should be happy if any of them turn into something useful.

Well, there's the odds of what will happen...
But, there's also what we NEED to happen (despite the odds)...

If we just draft "useful players", we will never re-build and climb out of this.

 

[BinCookin]

Well, there's the odds of what will happen...
But, there's also what we NEED to happen (despite the odds)...

If we just draft "useful players", we will never re-build and climb out of this.

Ya I just mention that perspective to temper our expectations.
Anyone who thinks we "should" get 3 NHL'ers who will all eventually play 500 GP... that is not likely to happen.

If we come away with 2 players, we beat the odds
If we come away with 3 players we have done very very well.

 

[Flowah]

Ya I just mention that perspective to temper our expectations.
Anyone who thinks we "should" get 3 NHL'ers who will all eventually play 500 GP... that is not likely to happen.

If we come away with 2 players, we beat the odds
If we come away with 3 players we have done very very well.

Which should hammer home just how hard it is to find impact players outside the top5 picks and why some of us are real hard on the tank train.

You're crushing NHL odds if half your picks each year turn into just average NHL players. That's sad. And like everyone has mentioned, it will never make you competitive even if you beat the odds but don't find star players.

 

[waltdetroit]

We have the 36th pick

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I would say in a typical year a team has 7 picks, that team should expect that two of those drafted players go on to play at least 150 NHL games

If you get more than two players to do so, OR, you get a least one draftee to go on and play significantly more than 150 NHL games(like 500 or more) than it should be viewed as a significant success

now for us with 11 picks this year and with so many coming much higher, if we dont get at least 4 guys who go on to play at least 150 NHL games than the draft was a fail as a whole

 

[PelagicJoe]

Realistic expectations are that this team is going to suck terribly for another 5-7 years at least. It is probably closer to 10 years since we have a history of sucking at developing our draft picks, outside of Larkin of course.

 

[NickH8]

We're going to need to get a franchise player near the top of the draft (obviously). We'll likely be mediocre until then, unless we find a steal, which is very unlikely with today's scouting. Larkin is a solid center and I love the guy, but he can't take over a game. You need two guys who can control the game and change the momentum at will, usually centers and defensemen. You can have two centers (Pittsburgh) two defensemen (Nashville) or one of each (LA, Chicago with prime Toews, Boston with prime Chara).

 

[lilidk]

We're going to need to get a franchise player near the top of the draft (obviously). We'll likely be mediocre until then, unless we find a steal, which is very unlikely with today's scouting. Larkin is a solid center and I love the guy, but he can't take over a game. You need two guys who can control the game and change the momentum at will, usually centers and defensemen. You can have two centers (Pittsburgh) two defensemen (Nashville) or one of each (LA, Chicago with prime Toews, Boston with prime Chara).

You don't think Rus is #1 center?

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

How many bottom 5 finishes can we realistically expect in the seasons ahead?

 

[PelagicJoe]

How many bottom 5 finishes can we realistically expect in the seasons ahead?

Edmonton has managed to do it for about 2.5 decades now.

 

[Oddbob]

Edmonton is a huge fail as measuring stick on this subject. They are the exception, not the example! Being honest, I see us being competitive again in 2-4 seasons, and sooner if some of our youngsters surprise, and that is something that happens from time to time, despite all the way overblown negativity everyone is spreading around here. Turning things around doesn't always take 8+ seasons, and I am counting these past 2 seasons as the start of the turn around! Not the fake, we should have rebuilt in 2010-2013 garbage!

 

[Pavels Dog]

How many bottom 5 finishes can we realistically expect in the seasons ahead?

Realistically between 0 and however many seasons ahead you want to count. I think most are pretty confident saying we'll be bottom 5 next season.. but that's a guess, and anything beyond next season is basically determined by how optimistic or pessimistic you want to be.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I think we have some lean years ahead of us, I don’t see this team making it out of the first round for another 5 years.

 

[NickH8]

You don't think Rus is #1 center?

Rasmussen? No. Unless he works hard as f*** and is born again as a player, I don't see it. He'll be good, but I'm talking real game changers, guys who take over the game at will and can change it's course single handedly. Guys like Datsyuk, prime Zetterberg, and Lidstrom.

 

[BinCookin]

Rasmussen? No. Unless he works hard as **** and is born again as a player, I don't see it. He'll be good, but I'm talking real game changers, guys who take over the game at will and can change it's course single handedly. Guys like Datsyuk, prime Zetterberg, and Lidstrom.

So early man. So early.

We have no idea how our 19 yr olds will work out.

they could be out of the league at 21, they could be 4th liners, they could be the next Jamie Benn... who knows. I am not banking on any success... but lets not do the opposite and assume failure in advance.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

We finished bottom five this year.

I think its not only reasonable but more important desirable that we do so in each of the next two seasons as well.

After that I hope we finish in the 12-17 draft spot, so either just making it or just missing and from there we steadily advance upwards.

I think that is a realistic expectation

 

[rhef3]

I say atleast another 4 years, IF we draft a defenseman with the 6th pick he won't be nhl ready for atleast 2-3 years, and as long as we are still pushed up against the cap we can't really sign worthwhile free agents. Just need to stay the course and draft quality players and slowly get out from our bad contracts and then we will be in that "good" area where we should have a good amount of cap space and our rookies are starting to play more significant roles.

I'd say 2021-22 season will be the last bad season for a while
Helm, Hank, Kronwall, Big E, Weiss will be off the books with abdelkader and neilson in their contract year.

By that time most of our prior picks will be having bigger roles (hronek, cholo, Raz, bert) and whoever we draft this year will be knocking on the door or already up.

 

[TheOtherOne]

So you're telling me if we're being very optimistic we could hope for the next Brendan Smith...

 

[PelagicJoe]

So you're telling me if we're being very optimistic we could hope for the next Brendan Smith...

That is the HF Boards equivalent of triggering someone's Vietnam flashbacks on purpose.