RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

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Avsblitzkrieg

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May 1, 2016
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I can see it. Though I don't think the gap b/w the two will be all that big. This was a great defensemen draft. I think guys like Brannstrom, liligren, Timmins will all end up steals for the team that drafted them and be close to top pairing defensemen.
Timmins is gonna have to work on his skating. I wasn't terribly impressed. He needs to get a skating coach ASAP
 

Lampedampe

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Feb 26, 2015
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I love hos people keep bringing up Mono as an excuse to why he fell and keep bringing up that he was a consensus top 3 pick a year ago. You know how ironic it is then that a player called Patrick had a much tougher season injury wise and only just about fell one spot while being ranked 1st overall on many lists just before the draft.

The reason why he fell was because scouts started to see glaring flaws in his game.

I really like this pick for Toronto though, one of the better picks in the draft but to already say that he's a steal and to somehow claim that he has the highest ceiling in the draft is plain stupid.
 

Cleatus

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Nov 21, 2008
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I love hos people keep bringing up Mono as an excuse to why he fell and keep bringing up that he was a consensus top 3 pick a year ago. You know how ironic it is then that a player called Patrick had a much tougher season injury wise and only just about fell one spot while being ranked 1st overall on many lists just before the draft.

The reason why he fell was because scouts started to see glaring flaws in his game.

I think it's because lately, scouts have tended to over-analyze defensemen who had a lot of draft -2 hype, and it's much easier for them to fall in the draft than forwards because defense is a tougher position to guage.

I have a good feeling Liljegren is going to be one of those Fowler or Chychrun kind of cases.
 

Luddowich

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May 1, 2013
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I love hos people keep bringing up Mono as an excuse to why he fell and keep bringing up that he was a consensus top 3 pick a year ago. You know how ironic it is then that a player called Patrick had a much tougher season injury wise and only just about fell one spot while being ranked 1st overall on many lists just before the draft.

The reason why he fell was because scouts started to see glaring flaws in his game.

I really like this pick for Toronto though, one of the better picks in the draft but to already say that he's a steal and to somehow claim that he has the highest ceiling in the draft is plain stupid.
Somewhat agree as in this is way to small sample size but Patricks and Liljegrens seasons weren't comparable. I think the biggest issue with Liljegren last year was trying to do too much, overthinking which imo were results of lost confidence added with playing for Rögle. Patrick had a much harder case falling since he was the consensus number one pick for this draft since 4 years because of his track record.
This isn't some type of competition of who had the "difficultest" injury season, these are different individuals with different characters with one who was out with injury and one who was out with illness.

Also, if you compare Liljegren 2015-2016 and back and 2016-2017 it's very obvious that they don't look like the same players.

But yes, it's waaaaaay to early to draw any conclusions. Pettersson isn't a bust because he had a poor tournament and Liljegren isnt a sure thing because of a tournament.
 

Jimmy Firecracker

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Mar 30, 2010
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I love hos people keep bringing up Mono as an excuse to why he fell and keep bringing up that he was a consensus top 3 pick a year ago. You know how ironic it is then that a player called Patrick had a much tougher season injury wise and only just about fell one spot while being ranked 1st overall on many lists just before the draft.

The reason why he fell was because scouts started to see glaring flaws in his game.

I really like this pick for Toronto though, one of the better picks in the draft but to already say that he's a steal and to somehow claim that he has the highest ceiling in the draft is plain stupid.

I mean, only one person brought up the mono in this thread, and it wasn't even really used as an excuse.
 

TheGroceryStick

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Jan 19, 2009
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He fell because of Mono; he stayed there because teams liked other players. The draft is a great thing; players close the gap on 'consensus' very very quick.

Doesn't mean - he wouldn't have fallen or rose had he not had mono though.

These thing happen every year - it's all about whether the teams still see the potential, through injuries/sickness etc. (Galchenyuk/Rielly/ etc etc)
 

Lampedampe

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Feb 26, 2015
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I mean, only one person brought up the mono in this thread, and it wasn't even really used as an excuse.

Well sure I'm a bit late to the party, but the first 2 threads were filled with mono comments and was widely described as the major reason why he fell.

If a talent like for example Eichel didn't play a single game his pre-draft season he'd still be drafted where he was drafted. Scouts don't judge players due to injury unless it might be a recurring injury problem.
 
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TheBeastCoast

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Mar 23, 2011
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Well sure I'm a bit late to the party, but the first 2 threads were filled with mono comments and was widely described as the major reason why he fell.

If a talent like for example Eichel didn't play a single game his pre-draft season he'd still be drafted where he was drafted. Scouts don't judge players due to injury unless it might be a recurring injury problem.

I mean I think general idea was that he came back to early from the mono, which in turn negatively affected his performance which dropped his stock. I mean whether that is the case or not we won't really know until he gets out and plays this year but I think the Leafs believe that to be the case so we will see.
 

Lampedampe

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Feb 26, 2015
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I mean I think general idea was that he came back to early from the mono, which in turn negatively affected his performance which dropped his stock. I mean whether that is the case or not we won't really know until he gets out and plays this year but I think the Leafs believe that to be the case so we will see.

That is absolutely possible, he's a great prospect and could flourish and become what people once thought of him. What i was trying to say with my post however is that there are question marks to his game and that's mainly why he fell not the mono, but the potential is still there and i think he could end up being a steal at 17 but that remains to see.
 

Legion34

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Jan 24, 2006
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That is absolutely possible, he's a great prospect and could flourish and become what people once thought of him. What i was trying to say with my post however is that there are question marks to his game and that's mainly why he fell not the mono, but the potential is still there and i think he could end up being a steal at 17 but that remains to see.

I dont think anyone (many at least) are talking like he is going to be a hall of fame player. It was a weak draft where the rankings were all over the place from day 1. He was a top 2 pre draft year who battled illness. Even with that. I think 4 or 5 scouting services ranked him 7-10. We got him at 17. And..... he is a position of need. The exact style of player Toronto needs above all else.

There were people on the board who wanted the leafs to tank to try to get him. They made the playoffs and got him. That's why we are excited.
 

LeafChief

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Mar 5, 2013
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That is absolutely possible, he's a great prospect and could flourish and become what people once thought of him. What i was trying to say with my post however is that there are question marks to his game and that's mainly why he fell not the mono, but the potential is still there and i think he could end up being a steal at 17 but that remains to see.

Going back and looking at old threads - it's hilarious to see how many fans of other teams wanted their team to pick him BEFORE the Leafs pick.

Now they all think he's terrible :nod:
 

LeafChief

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If you go back in those threads, there was a lot of disappointment and criticism in his game from the past season BEFORE the draft even happened. Yes, there were fans that still wanted to take a chance on him. But to frame it as a complete 180 from the previous threads and only because the Leafs drafted him is false.

Okay, you've convinced me. It's a 170.
 

4thline

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this "The league has spoken, 17th, no better!" Is hilariously simplistic.

Of the 12 rankings on my NHL draft 10 of 12 had him between 7 and 16, 7 had him at 10 or higher with the highest being 7th. Of those 7 rankings that him no worse than 10th, there were 14 different players ranked ahead of him. 7 different opinion that all agree that he's no worse than 10th, and yet a very plausible scenario where he ends up at 15th.

Hell, expanding it to the 10 that had him no worse than 16th we end up with 18 players named ahead, potential scenario for 19th overall.

Of those players-
6 were consensus better (8,9, or 10 times ahead)- Patrick, Hirschier,Vilardi, Heiskanen, Glass, Middlestatd
3 were majority better (6 or 7) Tippet, Makar, Petterson
1 was a push (Necas)
3 were majority behind (3 or 4) Suzuki, Rasmussen, Tolvanen,
5 were concensus behind (1 or 2) - Kostin, Vesalainen, Andersson, Brannstrom, Valimaki


To be sure someone is going to ***** and moan about the 2 excluded rankings that had him 20+. Feel free to do the work, it doesn't change much. Bumps Suzuki up to a push, leaves him clearly in the top 12 and the overwhelming favourite as 3rd best D.

There were 14 different lists represented before Liljegren was taken, given the surprise of the scouting community at large that he was still available at 17 his final draft spot speaks more to the variation in the guys ahead of him than that he was consensus 17th
 

biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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If a talent like for example Eichel didn't play a single game his pre-draft season he'd still be drafted where he was drafted.

The same would have been true with Liljegren. The difference, however, is that Liljegren played 60+ games with many of them while recovering from mono and others while recovering from a hip injury.

Look at the comments people have left about Elias Pettersson for his performance at the summer showcase. Now imagine that same thing going on month after month after month and before the draft instead of after.

Scouts don't judge players due to injury unless it might be a recurring injury problem.

This assumes that scouts have a level of understanding when it comes to injury and illness that exceeds doctors and world class critical thinking skills on top of that. They don't they are normal people who evaluate the performance of young hockey players. Many have old school attitudes, and all are affected by the same biases that all people are affected by - such as the availability bias, in which current performance overshadows past performance.

Now in saying that I don't think that scouts downgraded Liljegren solely because of mono. He was still generally ranked around 5th going into April. His ranking fell after the U18-WJC. With a strong tournament, I think he would have stayed top 5 or close to that. With a poor tournament, possibly due a hip injury that was undisclosed at the time, the nagging doubts that existed among scouts concerning his play over the season became more prominent and I feel that scouts also started to rewrite history about his past performance. If you look at the scouting reports about Liljegren from last summer's Hlinka (made at the time) they were glowing, especially his defensive performance. But many months later, after some poor performances, a drumbeat started among a small number of scouts, who were not at Hlinka, that Liljegren had a poor Hlinka especially defensively. I think that there is a lot of group think among scouts, and that in the coming years Liljegren could be a case study - either due to group think over-rating him before mono (such as ignoring flaws in his play), group think under-rating him after mono, or both.
 

Future

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Feb 8, 2011
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I love hos people keep bringing up Mono as an excuse to why he fell and keep bringing up that he was a consensus top 3 pick a year ago. You know how ironic it is then that a player called Patrick had a much tougher season injury wise and only just about fell one spot while being ranked 1st overall on many lists just before the draft.

The reason why he fell was because scouts started to see glaring flaws in his game.

I really like this pick for Toronto though, one of the better picks in the draft but to already say that he's a steal and to somehow claim that he has the highest ceiling in the draft is plain stupid.

I just think that he has an elite shot from the point and elite skating. He has all the other skills to round out those kind of tools as well. I think that if he would have played in the OHL he would have been taken extremely high. He was playing in a very tough pro league as a defensemen... not easy. This just reminds me of when the Leafs picked Nylander. Exactly.
 
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WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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this "The league has spoken, 17th, no better!" Is hilariously simplistic.

Of the 12 rankings on my NHL draft 10 of 12 had him between 7 and 16, 7 had him at 10 or higher with the highest being 7th. Of those 7 rankings that him no worse than 10th, there were 14 different players ranked ahead of him. 7 different opinion that all agree that he's no worse than 10th, and yet a very plausible scenario where he ends up at 15th.

Hell, expanding it to the 10 that had him no worse than 16th we end up with 18 players named ahead, potential scenario for 19th overall.

Of those players-
6 were consensus better (8,9, or 10 times ahead)- Patrick, Hirschier,Vilardi, Heiskanen, Glass, Middlestatd
3 were majority better (6 or 7) Tippet, Makar, Petterson
1 was a push (Necas)
3 were majority behind (3 or 4) Suzuki, Rasmussen, Tolvanen,
5 were concensus behind (1 or 2) - Kostin, Vesalainen, Andersson, Brannstrom, Valimaki


To be sure someone is going to ***** and moan about the 2 excluded rankings that had him 20+. Feel free to do the work, it doesn't change much. Bumps Suzuki up to a push, leaves him clearly in the top 12 and the overwhelming favourite as 3rd best D.

There were 14 different lists represented before Liljegren was taken, given the surprise of the scouting community at large that he was still available at 17 his final draft spot speaks more to the variation in the guys ahead of him than that he was consensus 17th

How dare you bring logic into this forum :P

Honestly, as a fan I liked what I saw in that little tournament. Hope to see even more progress this season.
 

snipes

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Dec 28, 2015
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this "The league has spoken, 17th, no better!" Is hilariously simplistic.

Of the 12 rankings on my NHL draft 10 of 12 had him between 7 and 16, 7 had him at 10 or higher with the highest being 7th. Of those 7 rankings that him no worse than 10th, there were 14 different players ranked ahead of him. 7 different opinion that all agree that he's no worse than 10th, and yet a very plausible scenario where he ends up at 15th.

Hell, expanding it to the 10 that had him no worse than 16th we end up with 18 players named ahead, potential scenario for 19th overall.

Of those players-
6 were consensus better (8,9, or 10 times ahead)- Patrick, Hirschier,Vilardi, Heiskanen, Glass, Middlestatd
3 were majority better (6 or 7) Tippet, Makar, Petterson
1 was a push (Necas)
3 were majority behind (3 or 4) Suzuki, Rasmussen, Tolvanen,
5 were concensus behind (1 or 2) - Kostin, Vesalainen, Andersson, Brannstrom, Valimaki


To be sure someone is going to ***** and moan about the 2 excluded rankings that had him 20+. Feel free to do the work, it doesn't change much. Bumps Suzuki up to a push, leaves him clearly in the top 12 and the overwhelming favourite as 3rd best D.

There were 14 different lists represented before Liljegren was taken, given the surprise of the scouting community at large that he was still available at 17 his final draft spot speaks more to the variation in the guys ahead of him than that he was consensus 17th

Isn't my NHL draft just lists by random fans not actual scouts?
 

AppsSyl

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May 28, 2015
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Isn't my NHL draft just lists by random fans not actual scouts?

No that is draftsite.com. Mynhldraft.com has a draft rankings page, as you can see if you follow the link in the post. The link lists all of the most up to date rankings by different scouting agencies and personalities. They include McKenzie, Button (TSN), ISS, Mark Seidel (NASC), Pronman (ESPN), Kennedy (THN), Draft Analyst, Hockey Prospect, Dobber Prospects, Marek (SN), McKeens, and Future Considerations.
 

TDK67

Registered User
Apr 17, 2016
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Isn't my NHL draft just lists by random fans not actual scouts?

They have a page that aggregates all of the pre draft rankings from the most popular scouting sites/services. Nice to use if you want a quick reference of most of the rankings prior to the draft.
 

Battle Lin

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Dec 18, 2015
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is mono worst than breaking your leg? some prospects rated very high at beginning of year suffer horrible leg injuries miss the year or play a small portion of the season and still get picked very high
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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is mono worst than breaking your leg? some prospects rated very high at beginning of year suffer horrible leg injuries miss the year or play a small portion of the season and still get picked very high
Its different. With something that obvious you can directly point to it, and people understand rehab. Mono is hard to measure and people often come back before they are ready and end up chasing the season. Look at players who talks about how after missing training camp they feel like they are always a step behind everyone else and playing catch-up. I would assume mono would have a very similar effect.
 

Albi34

Registered User
Feb 14, 2010
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is mono worst than breaking your leg? some prospects rated very high at beginning of year suffer horrible leg injuries miss the year or play a small portion of the season and still get picked very high

I think the biggest difference is that if you break your leg you are out indefinitely, where if you have mono you are physically capable of playing but it will destroy your strength and energy
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
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So much raw skill, If the Leafs can really polish his game up, he will be a good one.
 
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