Ray Scapinello Division Finals - Chicago Cougars (1) vs Montreal Canadiens (2)

[ImporterExporter]

Chicago Cougars (1)


Coach: Tommy Gorman

Syd Howe - Anze Kopitar (A) - Mike Bossy
Alex Tanguay - Ryan Getzlaf (A) - Larry Aurie
Patrick Sharp - Red Sullivan - John MacLean
Brenden Morrow - Brian Skrudland - Ryan Callahan

Lionel Conacher - King Clancy (C)
Rod Seiling - John Carlson
Joe Watson - Adrian Aucoin

Tom Barrasso
John Ross Roach

Spares: Viktor Shalimov (RW), Kevin Bieksa (D), Morgan Rielly (D)

PP1
Howe - Getzlaf - Bossy
Carlson - Clancy

PP2
Tanguay - Kopitar - MacLean
Aucoin - Sharp

PK1
Kopitar - Skrudland
Seiling - Conacher

PK2
Sullivan - Aurie
Watson - Clancy/Carlson

Extra PK F: Callahan, Sharp, Howe (also can play D)

This team plays a heavy forechecking system with strong forecheckers abundant throughout the lineup. Most of the time the 1st line will go power vs. power.

Estimated Ice Time

Forwards
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
S. Howe	13	4		17
A. Kopitar	14	2	4	20
M. Bossy	14	5		19
A. Tanguay	12	3		15
R. Getzlaf	13	5		18
L. Aurie	13		3	16
P. Sharp	10	3		13
R. Sullivan	11		3	14
J. MacLean	10	2		12
B. Morrow	11			11
B. Skrudland	8		4	12
R. Callahan	9			9
TOTAL	138	24	14	176

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defense
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
L. Conacher	18		4	22
K. Clancy	18	4	2	24
R. Seiling	16		4	20
J. Carlson	16	4	1	21
J. Watson	12		3	15
A. Aucoin	12	3		15
TOTAL	92	11	14	117

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

VS



MONTREAL CANADIENS (2)




GM: BenchBrawl

Coach: Scotty Bowman
Captain: Sidney Crosby
Assistant: Dit Clapper
Assistant: Charlie Gardiner
Assistant: Patrice Bergeron


HEAD COACH

Scotty Bowman

ROSTER

Gordon Roberts - Sidney Crosby (C) - Bill Guerin
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron (A) - Phil Kessel
Max Pacioretty - Ivan Hlinka - Mark Stone
Milan Lucic - Craig Conroy - Rejean Houle

Dit Clapper (A) - Jack Crawford
Gus Mortson - Viktor Kuzkin
Bryan McCabe - Niklas Hjalmarsson

Charlie Gardiner (A)
Olaf Kolzig

Spares: Saku Koivu, Mark Streit

PP1:
Gordon Roberts - Sidney Crosby - Phil Kessel
Dit Clapper - Bryan McCabe

PP2:
Brad Marchand - Ivan Hlinka - Bill Guerin
Gus Mortson - Viktor Kuzkin

PK1:
Patrice Bergeron - Brad Marchand
Dit Clapper - Jack Crawford
Charlie Gardiner

PK2:
Rejean Houle - Sidney Crosby
Gus Mortson - Niklas Hjalmarsson
Charlie Gardiner​

Click to read more...

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's to a good series BB!

I'll start off by looking at 7yr Vs.X of the top 6, with 10 yr listed in parenthesis for more modern players. These figures are through the 2018-19 season found in Hockey Outsider's post.

Note: I would like to look at ES Vs.X, but there are a lot of current players here, and the only source I have is Hockey Outsider's post which is only through 2016-17. Does anyone have updated figures?


1st Lines
Chicago
Howe: 83.9
Kopitar: 79.2 (76.1)
Bossy: 94.8 (89.4)
TOTAL: 257.9

Montreal
Roberts: not listed
Crosby: 102.4 (99.3)
Guerin: score not high enough to make the chart*

*Lowest scores on the chart are 65.3 (58.1), Guerin does make the ES Vs.X chart with a 48. I believe previously we said the average was for ES score to be about 70% of regular,which would be 68.5, so Guerin likely just missed the cut.

If we assume Guerin has a 7yr score of 65.2, his total with Crosby is 167.6, which is 90.3 pts below Chicago's 3 man score. There is no was Gord Roberts has a score in the 90's, and likely not in the 80's (for reference Michel Goulet is a 79.3), so there is likely a large advantage for Chicago here.

Chicago's line is also better defensively than Montreal's with Kopitar as the best defensive player on either line, and Howe as the best defensive winger on either line. It is clear that Crosby has been given the burden to carry the major offensive load of this line, and Chicago has a very strong defensive center to line up against him. This 1st line matchup is a huge advantage for Chicago and one of the keys to why Chicago will win the series.


2nd Lines
Chicago
Tanguay: 73.4 (67.6)
Getzlaf: 83.7 (78.0)
Aurie: 71.6
TOTAL: 228.7

Montreal
Marchand: 74.2 (61.0)
Bergeron: 68.6 (65.9)
Kessel: 83.1 (76.8)
TOTAL: 225.9


Montreal's 2nd line is clearly better defensively, they have the better 2nd line, but it isn't nearly as big as Chicago's advantage on the 1st line

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Now I will take a look at Defense...

1st Pairs

Clancy > Clapper: I have Clancy just outside the top 10, an above average #1 for a draft this size, with Clapper a couple tiers lower, average to slightly below average #1.

Conacher >> Crawford: I have Conacher as a borderline #1/#2, while Crawford is at best an average #2 and likely slightly below average.

Large advantage Chicago


2nd Pairs

Carlson = Mortson

Carlson Norris Record: 4*, 5, ?**
*3rd in AS voting that season
**This for the current season (teams are through 70-ish games) where he has 10 points more than the next closest defenseman (Josi), 20 points more than any defenseman after that, and ranks 10th among Dmen in TOI/GP. It is almost certain Carlson will have a top-5 Norris finish, and likely that he will be a top-3 finalist.

Mortson AS/Norris Record: 1, 7, 7

Playoffs:
Carlson has won 1 Cup in a 30+ team era as his team's #1 and leading all Dmen that post season in points
Mortson won 4 Cups in the O6, although only played 5 of 9 games for one of them, and his partner Jimmy Thomson was generally considered the better player

Seiling <= Kuzkin

These 2 are hard to compare given Kuzkin's best years were in the Soviet Union from the mid 60's to very early 70's. I have both as above average #4's in a draft this size, but Kuzkin is probably a little better.

Very Minor advantage Montreal


3rd Pairs
Watson and Hjalmarsson seem fairly similar, defense-first guys on successful multiple-Cup winning teams, not thought of as their team's #1 D, although is is worth noting that Watson was the Flyers ES ice time leader for both Cup years, and Aaso led 1968 & 1973 Flyers in icetime, and was 2nd in 1969, 1970 & 1976. I would probably give Watson a small advantage here.

Aucoin Norris Record: 5, 8
McCabe Norris Record: 4, 9

Their careers almost perfectly overlapped. McCabe was generally on better teams and consistently played higher minutes, although Aucoin has the 2 highest TOI/GP averages between them. My personal memory is that McCabe was considered the better player, but he also played in a huge market during the prime of his career. Still, I give McCabe the advantage, although it's probably closer than most think.

I'd call these 3rd pairs about even


Overall Chicago has the better blueline, due to a large advantage on the 1st pairing.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Hello, I'm not going to be able to participate much. Thank you for presenting a throughout case for your team. I will throw a few comments:

Saying your 1st line is a huge advantage over mine seems optimistic. I have Sidney Crosby on the line, a Top 5 center of all-time, supported by players I feel are a very good match for him. Up to people to decide if they agree.

My 1st pairing deserves some boost for real-life chemistry. Still not as good as yours obviously.

I feel my advantage on the 2nd line is larger than your advantage on the 1st line, so I guess this is my main disagreement with your argumentation.

Let's also highlights two major advantages for Montreal: Scotty Bowman is much better than Tommy Gorman, and Charlie Gardiner is astronomically better than Tom Barrasso. Both of these can be a huge determining factor in this series.

Another point: Unless I'm missing someone, your team lacks a good right-handed faceoff man. Getzlaf is not good there, and AFAIK Sharp isn't neither. Meanwhile my team has Crosby and Bergeron as the left-handed and right-handed faceoff combo. This is a huge functionnal weakness on your team as far as I am concerned, especially against a coach like Scotty Bowman who can capitalize on that hole, and who has the horses to exploit it.

Good luck mate!

 

[Dreakmur]

Unless I'm missing someone, your team lacks a good right-handed faceoff man. Getzlaf is not good there, and AFAIK Sharp isn't neither.

Both Getzlaf and Sharp are under 50

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Sorry for my absence, I thought I would have more time to keep posting comparisons, I did not have any intention of ignoring Goaltending or Coaching, here are by brief thoughts...

Goaltending
Large advantage to Montreal, I have Gardiner just outside the top 10 all time, while Barrasso is below average, probably somewhere around 30th or so. This likely cancels out Chicago's advantage on the blueline.

Coaching
In a vacuum Bowman is clearly better than Gorman, most have Bowman as the best coach of all time, however, it is important to look at fit, for which I think Gorman's team fits his style better than Bowman's. Many of Bowman's players will fit in just fine under his coaching style, but there is one guy who I think may be a problem, and that is Phil Kessel. Kessel is known for being an offense-only player with very little to no grit/physicality. Now, in real life Bowman was able to work with Lafleur who was an all-offense guy, but this was during a time when he was arguably the best offensive player in the league. Phil Kessel is nowhere near that level in the ATD. As per the previous offensive analysis, Phil Kessel is carrying the offensive load for Montreal's second line, if Bowman starts cutting his minutes, this could have a significant impact on Montreal's overall offense, which is already behind Chicago's due to the large advantage when looking at 1st lines.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I think we both wish we would've had more time to discuss this one, but still was a good series BB. Good luck with your other team going forward!

 

[tinyzombies]

Kopitar Getzlaf Barrasso over Crosby Bergeron and Gardiner? Ouch.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Kopitar Getzlaf Barrasso over Crosby Bergeron and Gardiner? Ouch.

We selected those positions at different times, those are BB's 1st, 4th, and 3rd round picks compared to my 5th, 7th, and 6th round picks. Of course Montreal looks better when you state it that way.


Let's try it with top 2 D and best winger instead...

Clancy (1st), Conacher (3rd), Bossy (2nd) over Clapper (2nd), Crawford (6th), Marchand (5th)

 

[tinyzombies]

We selected those positions at different times, those are BB's 1st, 4th, and 3rd round picks compared to my 5th, 7th, and 6th round picks. Of course Montreal looks better when you state it that way.


Let's try it with top 2 D and best winger instead...

Clancy (1st), Conacher (3rd), Bossy (2nd) over Clapper (2nd), Crawford (6th), Marchand (5th)

I just think Canadiens have the bigger advantage at more important positions, no? And even if it all evens out, there's still Gardiner as a massive advantage over Bare-a-hole.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I just think Canadiens have the bigger advantage at more important positions, no? And even if it all evens out, there's still Gardiner as a massive advantage over Bare-a-hole.

Although the posts made in this series weren't extensive, I think they go a far ways in answering this

 

[BenchBrawl]

Truth is, Montreal was disqualified the day I drafted Patrice Bergeron to play on Sidney Crosby's wing. People didn't buy it, and by doing so they disqualified the team from contention because the Bergeron pick was now mediocre, and nowadays you cannot win if you make a mediocre pick inside the Top 200.

I gambled and lost. I own it. I tried to patch it creatively by picking the first coach and stuff like that but it was too little too late.

 

[Dreakmur]

Truth is, Montreal was disqualified the day I drafted Patrice Bergeron to play on Sidney Crosby's wing. People didn't buy it, and by doing so they disqualified the team from contention because the Bergeron pick was now mediocre, and nowadays you cannot win if you make a mediocre pick inside the Top 200.

I gambled and lost. I own it. I tried to patch it creatively by picking the first coach and stuff like that but it was too little too late.

Not disqualified, but once that pick was received the way it was, you were in tough. You still put together a good team.

 

[VanIslander]

I'll be back with chemistry vs. competition analysis, but I will start with questions:

Chicago: Kopitar (as 1st line center), Aurie & Tanguay (as 2nd-line all-time greats)?

Montreal: Guerin & Kessel I loathed away from the puck, so, can I get past the fact that they are drafted as top RWers all time?

I really dunno.

 

[Dreakmur]

I'll be back with chemistry vs. competition analysis, but I will start with questions:

Chicago: Kopitar (as 1st line center), Aurie & Tanguay (as 2nd-line all-time greats)?

Montreal: Guerin & Kessel I loathed away from the puck, so, can I get past the fact that they are drafted as top RWers all time? (Like, elsewhere: can I get past Redden on the 1st pairing & Spezza as 3rd line center on an all-time great team. Ugh.)

I really dunno.

I just hope you can get past making arguments in the wrong threads.

 

[VanIslander]

I just hope you can get past making arguments in the wrong threads.

I edited out my bracketed minor point because this thread is not about YOU.

 

[Dreakmur]

I edited out my bracketed minor point because this thread is not about YOU.

It’s not about anybody anymore. This series was decided when we voted earlier this week.

 

[VanIslander]

Lol.

Really?