Speculation: Ranking the RFA Signings

[StreetHawk]

Each deal you need to take within the confines of the team and player.

CBS have plenty of cap space but ended up with a bridge for Warenski. Expires same years as Jones when he hits ufa. But it’s a solid $5 mill cap. Is that good or bad?

Boston has limited cap so bridge was their option. He’s had injuries and he would still be 2 years from ufa.

Rantanen was around the ballpark I expected for him around $9.5. Glad he didn’t cave under $9 mill. Screw what Mack makes. I’m sure he’s not thrilled constantly hearing how team friendly his contract is. Likely he wishes that he didn’t go as long term as he did but that’s the risk he took.

Marner, did very well. Tavares probably upped the amount M and M ask for. I liken his situation to where your department hires a more experienced person that does the same job as you but in the end both your outputs are comparable. So why should you make much less than that person. Had they brought in Someone with a different skill set that the company needed then you can’t argue about salary. If Tavares was a D like Hedman for example then Marner isn’t asking for $11 mill.

Some surprises of course.

Felt Connor took less than I expected. Thought he’d land in the $7.5-$8 range per going that long. He’ll be 29 when his deal ends. Not terrible but not ideal leverage on the next contract.

Aho he got the term he wanted plus front loaded SB. For him that offsets the higher amount he was lookin for. Carolina gets a good cap hit, just have to borrow or ask the owner to front the cash. But they don’t get the term they wanted. So ends in a push IMO.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Lol @ comparing an underachieving team's point totals to 2 overachieving team's point totals.

Either way, it shouldn't matter. You said:

So anybody can miss, right?

Look at that; an ECF final team! So it doesn't matter that Tampa has been to the ECF. It can happen to anybody! 98 points to 67? Gee, that's a 31 point drop. A drop that high would put Tampa at a point total below this year's cutoff for the playoffs. Guess their amazing season doesn't make them immune, right?

Even cup champions not immune! I think it's pretty well-established that anybody can miss, according to you.

Yeah, I mean at least a powerhouse like Tampa wouldn't go out in the first rou... Oh.

Looks like I'll be seeing you in Tampa threads; unless of course you're just a biased user getting your anti-Leaf narrative with no justification out in an off-topic thread...

If you were a tampa fan, I would understand why you would be so angry at the mere assertion that the leafs may miss the playoffs. But a first round exit team that only finished 5 points ahead of the closest outside playoff team should not have that level of confidence.

Hell, I can even understand why Ottawa fans snerked when they didn't think they would drop that far. But the leafs dropping 5 points is absolutely possible.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you were a tampa fan, I would understand why you would be so angry

But that's not what you said. You said anybody could miss in your attempt to push the narrative that the Leafs are at risk, which we all know is beyond ridiculous. You gave examples of teams that missed that all apply to Tampa (and every other team). Yet you're only in this off-topic thread saying these things about the Leafs, who have been a top team for multiple years, who improved this offseason, and who have the 2nd best cup odds behind Tampa as they enter their primes.

But the leafs dropping 5 points is absolutely possible.

Technically possible? Yes, anything is technically possible, including Tampa missing the playoffs.
In any way likely or worth mentioning if not for fan-baiting purposes? No.

If you knew anything about this team that you've been bashing for months, you'd know how ridiculous your statement is.

Now maybe get back to the actual topic.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

But that's not what you said. You said anybody could miss in your attempt to push the narrative that the Leafs are at risk, which we all know is beyond ridiculous. You gave examples of teams that missed that all apply to Tampa (and every other team). Yet you're only in this off-topic thread saying these things about the Leafs, who have been a top team for multiple years, who improved this offseason, and who have the 2nd best cup odds behind Tampa as they enter their primes.


Technically possible? Yes, anything is technically possible, including Tampa missing the playoffs.
In any way likely or worth mentioning if not for fan-baiting purposes? No.

If you knew anything about this team that you've been bashing for months, you'd know how ridiculous your statement is.

Tampa can miss the playoffs. For them its "technically possible". The leafs are NOWHERE NEAR THAT level. They are not a top team, they were a wild card team. The leafs can make the playoffs and obviously as a fan, you should demand they do. If you give me something like 3-1 odds the leafs miss the playoffs, I might take it. If its tampa, I would want something like 12-1.

 

[Dumais]

Each deal you need to take within the confines of the team and player.

CBS have plenty of cap space but ended up with a bridge for Warenski. Expires same years as Jones when he hits ufa. But it’s a solid $5 mill cap. Is that good or bad?

Boston has limited cap so bridge was their option. He’s had injuries and he would still be 2 years from ufa.

Rantanen was around the ballpark I expected for him around $9.5. Glad he didn’t cave under $9 mill. Screw what Mack makes. I’m sure he’s not thrilled constantly hearing how team friendly his contract is. Likely he wishes that he didn’t go as long term as he did but that’s the risk he took.

Marner, did very well. Tavares probably upped the amount M and M ask for. I liken his situation to where your department hires a more experienced person that does the same job as you but in the end both your outputs are comparable. So why should you make much less than that person. Had they brought in Someone with a different skill set that the company needed then you can’t argue about salary. If Tavares was a D like Hedman for example then Marner isn’t asking for $11 mill.

Some surprises of course.

Felt Connor took less than I expected. Thought he’d land in the $7.5-$8 range per going that long. He’ll be 29 when his deal ends. Not terrible but not ideal leverage on the next contract.

Aho he got the term he wanted plus front loaded SB. For him that offsets the higher amount he was lookin for. Carolina gets a good cap hit, just have to borrow or ask the owner to front the cash. But they don’t get the term they wanted. So ends in a push IMO.

Werenski will still be a RFA with arbitration rights (7m per will be the lowest possible salary). It does make it interesting with Jones (UFA, top 5 dman in the league) sweetheart of a deal ending at the same time. Best case scenario is we keep both (seems unlikely) we trade/lose both (seems even less likely) or we keep one and trade/lose the other (most likely). But I personally think it's smart, within three years we will know if Werenski can be as good as Jones defensively. And I would certainly sign both for 10-12m in three years if they have become one of the most dominating pairings in the league.

I dont see any problems with the contract. Only time I have problems with contracts is when a team is up against the cap...CBJ arent.

 

[StreetHawk]

Werenski will still be a RFA with arbitration rights (7m per will be the lowest possible salary). It does make it interesting with Jones (UFA, top 5 dman in the league) sweetheart of a deal ending at the same time. Best case scenario is we keep both (seems unlikely) we trade/lose both (seems even less likely) or we keep one and trade/lose the other (most likely). But I personally think it's smart, within three years we will know if Werenski can be as good as Jones defensively. And I would certainly sign both for 10-12m in three years if they have become one of the most dominating pairings in the league.

I dont see any problems with the contract. Only time I have problems with contracts is when a team is up against the cap...CBJ arent.

Was referring to jones for ufa. My bad on not being clear.

You can view the signing as either good or bad. If you believe in him you’d probably wanted long term since you have the space. If you’re unsure you’re happy with the 3 years.

It’s a 2 way street. Unless both sides can agree what the player is or will be you really can’t do a deal for term as it will be considered risky for one of the two sides

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tampa can miss the playoffs. For them its "technically possible". The leafs are NOWHERE NEAR THAT level.

They are actually very close to that level. It is equally ridiculous to think it's worth discussing either of them missing.

They are not a top team, they were a wild card team.

They were not. You can't even get that right and you expect people to trust your obviously biased opinion.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Okay, that was probably a bit hyperbolous on my part. But I do think prime Toews gets extremely underrated on this forum.

Possibly. It's hard to assess the value of players like him so ... possibly.

Tampa can miss the playoffs. For them its "technically possible". The leafs are NOWHERE NEAR THAT level. They are not a top team, they were a wild card team. The leafs can make the playoffs and obviously as a fan, you should demand they do. If you give me something like 3-1 odds the leafs miss the playoffs, I might take it. If its tampa, I would want something like 12-1.

So you say, but I'd say you're wrong.

Wild card team - it's already been pointed out that you're wrong about too so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Dumais]

Was referring to jones for ufa. My bad on not being clear.

You can view the signing as either good or bad. If you believe in him you’d probably wanted long term since you have the space. If you’re unsure you’re happy with the 3 years.

It’s a 2 way street. Unless both sides can agree what the player is or will be you really can’t do a deal for term as it will be considered risky for one of the two sides

Yep, I was hoping long term (so we can get that sweetheart deal) when he out preforms 8m (or whatever it was going to cost for a 8year deal) but it also works out in the long run. If we save on this contract and pay market value on the next; the deal than works out to 11years for slightly less than market value.

So yeah I agree, it is a two way street.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

every single comparable here is wrong

1) Nylander 135pts in 185 games vs Larkin 140pts in 242 games. 800k more is well justified for a 0.73ppg guy vs a 0.58ppg guy

2) Matthews vs Eichel? Seriously. Eichel hasnt hit 30g yet, Matthews hasnt not hit 30. Matthews 40g as a rookie then ppg+ years 2 and 3...eichel didnt hit ppg until his 4th year. Matthews has led the leafs to the playoffs all 3 seasons, jack is 0 for 4. this is an awful comparable. Matthews is easily worth 1.6 more than Jack

3) aho and marner had identical stats....ehrr no? Marner had 94pts and 83 arent identical. Marner 0.93ppg for his career. Aho 0.81ppg. Make the case that C > W or 8.5>10.9 but dont lie and say identical stats
21 man roster or trade a forward? 21 man roster it is then. Helps to have the farm team in the same NHL city.
having a guy like justin holl on the roster to get in 11 games the entire year, or Leivo 16 the year before isnt exactly necessary


gotta love all these "leafs ruined their cap" type comments. Nah, they signed all their stars long term. Arizona, NY rangers, Buffalo, Philly, Vancouver and Florida are all up against the cap and none of them are likely to make the playoffs. thats called ruining cap. they have no terrible UFA signing like okposo/eriksson/Neal making 6mil, they just paid their own guys

Think you are looking at the Leafs with home town fanaticism. Larkin had carried the Wings. How you figure Nylander is a better player....
It's Matthews 5 year term that makes his contract poor from the Leafs standard. Making Matthews the second highest paid player in the league or a shorter term deal....foolish. How is it justified compared to other contracts No other teams would have offered such a contract.
Marner and Aho in the past two years have had identical years. Nice that you play the point per game nonsense but Aho scores more goals, so really their offensive stats are very close.
Not that the that three RFA contracts are that destructive to the Leafs cap, but from a objective point of view, the Leafs overpaid 4m or so. What were the Leafs competition when they signed these deal?

 

[CatchyTune]

I think they’ll b good players as well but let’s not sell Muzzin as a scrub here. He’s a very good d man

I know that. All I said was I font want him at 36-37 years old. Sandin/Lilj at 21-22 > Muzzin at 32-33

 

[Dache]

I know that. All I said was I font want him at 36-37 years old. Sandin/Lilj at 21-22 > Muzzin at 32-33

That might be a close call, I’d say for sure they’re better than him at 36-37. Not saying they for sure won’t be better than him at 32-33 but not a foregone conclusion

 

[GirardSpinorama]

They are actually very close to that level. It is equally ridiculous to think it's worth discussing either of them missing.


They were not. You can't even get that right and you expect people to trust your obviously biased opinion.

Wild Card level team is what I should have said. You got me there. They were 1 point better than the Canes and 2 better than Columbus. They were the 5th seed in the conference and unlike the two wild card teams, the leafs LOST their series. So, at the end of the day, they had a worse season than both Columbus and the Canes. If we include playoffs (which we should since playoffs matter), the leafs were the 7th best team in their conference (better than Pittsburg).

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Imagine someone using the word "implicate" when he clearly has no idea what the word means.

You also apparently have no idea what betting odds are. Let's start with this - the favourites don't always win - please tell me you understand that much about the way things work.

Hey, I'm not the one who suggested that betting odds implicate future success.

By the way, go look up the definition of implicate. Maybe you'll get a clue as to what's being said here.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Possibly. It's hard to assess the value of players like him so ... possibly.

So you say, but I'd say you're wrong.

Wild card team - it's already been pointed out that you're wrong about too so I'll just leave it at that.

Then you must mean that all 8 playoff teams from last year were on Tampa's level. Columbus, they actually beat Tampa. Hurricanes, made it to the ECF. The Islanders made it past Pittsburg who had the same amount of points as the leafs and finished with 3 more points. Washington finished with more points than the leafs and are cup champs. Bruins beat the leafs, no explanation necessary. I see no actual tangible information that says the Leafs were this "top" team. Playoff team, yes that was 4-5 points away from missing the playoffs.

 

[sakux]

The gap in linemates is not as big as people make it out to be, especially when considering the full ELC. For some reason, people have convinced themselves that Aho plays with a bunch of scrubs.

And what happens to the gap considering one of them carried his team to conference finals while the other one did something else..

 

[Didalee Hed]

Kyle Dubas has been the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs for one year and five months.

If y'all put half the effort into your banter that you put into being smug, this forum would be more fun for everyone.

Just when you think you have lived long enough to have seen everything, you get to witness a Maple Leafs fan calling someone else smug.

Oy vey.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Then you must mean that all 8 playoff teams from last year were on Tampa's level. Columbus, they actually beat Tampa. Hurricanes, made it to the ECF. The Islanders made it past Pittsburg who had the same amount of points as the leafs and finished with 3 more points. Washington finished with more points than the leafs and are cup champs. Bruins beat the leafs, no explanation necessary. I see no actual tangible information that says the Leafs were this "top" team. Playoff team, yes that was 4-5 points away from missing the playoffs.

That's not what I said at all.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

You think there’s a reasonable opportunity that Marner’s contract turns out to be a bargain? Heh.

I never said that but I guarantee when people look back on that list of contracts, they'll find some live up better than others and that some made mistakes in short term.

Automatically assuming Marner to be the worst based on everything he's done in his hockey career is yet another example that HF Boards is where intelligence/hockey knowledge goes to die (like having 3/4 of the voters rate him as a 4th liner).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hey, I'm not the one who suggested that betting odds implicate future success.

By the way, go look up the definition of implicate. Maybe you'll get a clue as to what's being said here.

Sound advice, you should take it.

 

[Guffman]

I never said that but I guarantee when people look back on that list of contracts, they'll find some live up better than others and that some made mistakes in short term.

Automatically assuming Marner to be the worst based on everything he's done in his hockey career is yet another example that HF Boards is where intelligence/hockey knowledge goes to die (like having 3/4 of the voters rate him as a 4th liner).

Sure, in hindsight, we will probably say some players did not give enough value to the contract they signed. We obviously can’t have that discussion today.

From what we know today, I think most reasonable observers will see the gross overpayments that the Leafs made with their RFAs over the past couple of years where it is very unlikely that you will look back and say that it is a good value contract.

I really don’t get Leaf fans at all. If I was a Leafs fans, I’d be upset with what Dubas has done as he should have signed better contracts and then had more salary cap dollars to spend on other parts of the team. Why defend actions that make your team not as strong as it otherwise could be? It’s bizarre.

 

[sparxx87]

Wild Card level team is what I should have said. You got me there. They were 1 point better than the Canes and 2 better than Columbus. They were the 5th seed in the conference and unlike the two wild card teams, the leafs LOST their series. So, at the end of the day, they had a worse season than both Columbus and the Canes. If we include playoffs (which we should since playoffs matter), the leafs were the 7th best team in their conference (better than Pittsburg).

Lol where does Tampa rank?

Some excellent maneuvering by you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wild Card level team is what I should have said.

Which is equally wrong.

They were 1 point better than the Canes and 2 better than Columbus. They were the 5th seed in the conference and unlike the two wild card teams, the leafs LOST their series. So, at the end of the day, they had a worse season than both Columbus and the Canes. If we include playoffs (which we should since playoffs matter), the leafs were the 7th best team in their conference (better than Pittsburg).

This is such a lazy analysis and faulty way of evaluating the quality of teams. By your logic, if playoffs matter so much, then clearly Leafs were better than Tampa, who had 3 less playoff wins.

Leafs were 7th in the league, and they have been for 2 years straight. They were 4th in ROW and goal differential. They have since improved from that already elite level, and are one of the best teams in the league, which is why they have the 2nd best odds to win the cup.

Please take your biased anti-Leaf narrative elsewhere.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And what happens to the gap considering one of them carried his team to conference finals while the other one did something else..

Lol, "carried".

Playoffs involve vastly different quality of opponents, and it is an incredibly small sample. This has no effect on anything. Marner has been a good playoff performer. He actually has a better production rate than Aho.

 

[Gary Nylund]

From what we know today, I think most reasonable observers will see the gross overpayments that the Leafs made with their RFAs over the past couple of years where it is very unlikely that you will look back and say that it is a good value contract.

I really don’t get Leaf fans at all. If I was a Leafs fans, I’d be upset with what Dubas has done as he should have signed better contracts and then had more salary cap dollars to spend on other parts of the team. Why defend actions that make your team not as strong as it otherwise could be? It’s bizarre.

Marner is the only player who got a substantial overpayment. The Matthews contract is fine, so is the Nylander contract and Johnsson/Kapanen ended up costing less than people thought so overall, not so bad.

When people like you talk as if everyone got grossly overpaid, I can only guess that either:

1) You really don't know what you're talking about

OR

2) You have an agenda

Yes I am upset that Dubas paid Marner so much, no question about it. I look at the big picture though and I see that the Kapanen/Johnsson contracts were good so made up for a good chunk of it right there plus I love the personnel moves he made so overall, he gets maybe a B+ or so for what he did this summer. Maybe A-, our situation as the beginning of the off-season was tough and it was clear that faced enormous challenges. I think Dubas is a very smart guy who is off to a pretty good start and he will also improve as time goes on.

If you told me at the beginning of the off season what our roster would for opening night and that it only cost us a 1st round pick to get there, I'd say wow, that's amazing if you can pull that off.