Ranking the last 30 #1 Draft picks

[Seanconn*]

Also I think about 5 players could be ahead of owen nolan on the OP's list. In 1990 teams could have had Jagr, or Broudeur. Pretty bad choice in retrospect.

 

[JackSlater]

Also I think about 5 players could be ahead of owen nolan on the OP's list. In 1990 teams could have had Jagr, or Broudeur. Pretty bad choice in retrospect.

The thread is about how good each number one pick was, not how good they were relative to the players in their draft class.

 

[Hardyvan123]

For the active ones, let's assume their careers ended now.

I'd take the following in the All-Time Draft, in the following order:

1) Mario Lemieux - Magnificent.
2) Sidney Crosby - Amazing that he's already the clear #2 here.
3) Alex Ovechkin - Ditto for #3.
4) Eric Lindros - Best peak, absolutely dominant.
5) Joe Thornton - impossible to ignore all the assist titles and linemate elevation.
6)Mike Modano - two-way phenom.
7)Dale Hawerchuk - underappreciated offensive star,
8)Mats Sundin - see above
9) Vincent Lecavalier - more talented than 6-8, but inconsistent.
10) Ilya Kovalchuk - crazy good goalscorer, little else
11) Pierre Turgeon - phenomenal compiler
12) Rick Nash - great peak goalscorer who is now starting to build career value
13) Owen Nolan - at his best, a wrecking ball
14) Wendel Clark - ditto, even more talented, far less career value, very good at what he was good at, very bad at what he was bad at.

I'd take the following in the MLD, in the following order:

15) Ed Jovanovski - earned serious norris consideration at his best, now more solid than ever.
16) Roman Hamrlik - a career #2 defenseman, that is impressive.
17) Patrick Kane - 3-year career, but is a 2nd team all-star and has a career low of 70 points
18) Steven Stamkos - a goal title and on his way to a runner-up too.

I'd take the following in the AAA draft, in the following order:

19) Chris Phillips - shutdown ace
20) Marc- Andre Fleury - very inconsistent, his cup win overrates him but he's been mostly above average

I'd take the following in the AA draft, in the following order:

21) Joe Murphy - good scorer, little else
22) Bryan Berard - unreal offensive instincts, possibly worst defensive defenseman of this generation, particularly after injury

I wouldn't consider these players significant all-time, but if I had to rank them, it would be as follows:

23) Erik Johnson - He's been very good in a short career.
24) Rick Dipietro - He's been very good... in the 2nd half of his short career... when healthy.
25) Gord Kluzak - He's better than his career. Just wrecked by injuries.
26) John Tavares - a very good rookie season, at least.
27) Taylor Hall - I'll take his half season and future uncertainty over the pure mediocrity below.
28) Patrik Stefan - at least had some value as a penalty killer.
29) Brian Lawton - Mediocre at best.
30) Alexander Daigle - inconsistent at the only thing he did well - put up points. Soft, brutal defensively, lacksadaisical, mostly disinterested in hockey.

At 1st glance this is probably the best list so far, when I get time I will do my own but am leaning on putting Modano and Lindros slightly higher (based on overall careers) than AO right now.

Clark is also too high but I have a bias against him as Wendy is a good nickname...will be back later with my list and details.

 

[Starchild74]

1.. Mario Lemieux: The best number 1 ever
2. Sidney Crosby: What he has done in a short time is amazing
3.. Eric Lindros: Truly a dominant player wish he wasn't so injury prone
4. Dale Hawerchuk: One of the best draft picks ever. Right from the start he was great
5.. Alexander Ovechkin: One day will be 3rd on this list.
6.. Mike Modano: One of the most consistent players ever
7.. Joe Thornton: Would be higher but can't get over his lack of playoff production
8.. Mats Sundin: Always wanted more out of this guy with his skill
9.. Pierre Turgeon: Underated and pretty consistent as well.
10. Vincent Lecavalier: Never became that superstar Centre that he could have been
11. Ilya Kovalchuk: One of the best pure goal scorers to be drafted number 1
12. Rick Nash: has carried the Blue Jackets and can only see him rise on this list
13. Roman Hamrlik: He has had a very good career and for the most part a really good defenceman
14. Wendel Clark: True heart and soul player. Wanted to put him higher just couldn't
15. Patrick Kane: Yeah he is pretty high but since almost from day one he has been good in the NHL and will only be getting better
16. Steven Stamkos: Can't put him any lower for what he has done so far.
17. Owen Nolan: One of the most overated players. Could have been so much better then what he was
18. Chris Pillips: A very consistent stay at home defenceman.
19. Ed Jovanovksi: would have had him higher except he has been inconsitent at times
20. Gord Kluzak: One of the best defenceman drafted at number 1, too bad we didn't see him play a full healthy career
21. Marc Andre Fleury: Can't believe I have a Stanley cup winning goalie so low. It is just that on alot of nights he doesn't look like a Stanley Cup winning goalie
22. Joe Murphy: Only thing that saved him was beign traded to Edmonton
23. Erik Johnson: Been pretty good so far could see him moving up
24. Bryan Berard: Just an offensive defenceman and not a very good one at that. Maybe if he never got injured his career might have been better just never saw anything in him that was good
25. John Tavares: Has not reached his potential yet but hard to do with the Islanders
26. Taylor Hall: Could have a really great career but too early to tell
27. Rick Dipietro: Very incosistent play and one of the worst number 1 picks ever
28. Alexander Daigle: Too bad he didn't have heart he sure had some skill
29. Patrick Stefan: One play sums up his career the open net gaff against the Oilers. That was pretty much his career.
30. Brian Lawton: As bad as 27-29 are in my opinion this guy shouldn't even be talked about with these players that is how bad he was for a number 1

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Just like I can't see ranking Lindros below Lecavalier, I also can't see ranking him above Ovechkin.

 

[IggyFan12]

The ultimate goal when drafting a player first overall is to one day win the Stanley Cup with that player, It's amazing how few times this has worked out. Mario, Vinny, Kane, Fleury, Crosby and Modano are the only ones in the last 30 picks which is a 20% success rate.

 

[seventieslord]

The ultimate goal when drafting a player first overall is to one day win the Stanley Cup with that player, It's amazing how few times this has worked out. Mario, Vinny, Kane, Fleury, Crosby and Modano are the only ones in the last 30 picks which is a 20% success rate.

I suppose to determine if that's really a poor success rate, you'd need to do the exact same thing with the last 30 #2, 3, 4, and 5 picks. If their success rates are all in the 10-15% range then what does that tell you?

 

[BenchBrawl]

I would be very interested in making a all-time 1st overall list.I don't see the point in leaving the 70s picks behind.I'll start a thread with no disrespect to the OP.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I would definately put Lafleur and Potvin ahead of Crosby and Ovechki for now , but I'm wonderign where Perreault woudl be if we listed them all.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I would definately put Lafleur and Potvin ahead of Crosby and Ovechki for now , but I'm wonderign where Perreault woudl be if we listed them all.

I agree, Potvin and Lafleur should definitely be 2/3 after Mario. IMO those two are extremely close. I would have absolutely no problem if someone ranked Lafleur 2nd, but I personally would give the nod to Potvin. It's really a tough call to make though.

I'm thinking Perreault fits in after Crosby and Ovechkin at the number 6 spot.

 

[Derick*]

I suppose to determine if that's really a poor success rate, you'd need to do the exact same thing with the last 30 #2, 3, 4, and 5 picks. If their success rates are all in the 10-15% range then what does that tell you?

Indeed.

Same mistake as the "President's Trophy Curse."

You also have to consider that you have to already be a ****** team to get a first overall pick, so to control the sample you'd have to compare to lottery teams that didn't get it.

 

[Dave Karp]

Obviously some of the young guys are just thrown in there. Hard to really rank them anywhere, Stamkos is an exception but too early to truly predict his career.

1. Mario Lemieux
2. Sidney Crosby
3. Alexander Ovechkin
4. Eric Lindros
5. Mike Modano
6. Dale Hawerchuk
7. Mats Sundin
8. Joe Thornton
9. Vincent Lecavalier
10. Rick Nash
11. Ilya Kovalchuk
12. Pierre Turgeon
13. Owen Nolan
14. Wendel Clark
15. Ed Jovanovski
16. Patrick Kane
17. Marc Andre Fleury
18. Steve Stamkos
19. Erik Johnson
20. John Tavares
21. Taylor Hall
22. Chris Phillips
23. Roman Hamrlik
24. Joe Murphy
25. Bryan Berard
26. Rick Dipietro
27. Gord Kluzak
28. Patrik Stefan
29. Brian Lawton
30. Alexander Daigle

 

[reckoning]

The ultimate goal when drafting a player first overall is to one day win the Stanley Cup with that player, It's amazing how few times this has worked out. Mario, Vinny, Kane, Fleury, Crosby and Modano are the only ones in the last 30 picks which is a 20% success rate.

You could also add Nolan and Lindros. They didn't win Cups but were directly traded by their teams for players who would go on to.

Whenever a fan talked about how their team should "tank" to get the #1 pick to guarantee them a Cup run in the future, my comeback was always to ask why so few #1s have won a Cup in their career. Of course, now the number has grown by three over the last two years with Crosby, Fleury and Kane. Maybe it's a sign that scouting has become so advanced that #1s now are literally "can't miss" these days, but I'm inclined to believe it's the law of averages evening out.

I suppose to determine if that's really a poor success rate, you'd need to do the exact same thing with the last 30 #2, 3, 4, and 5 picks. If their success rates are all in the 10-15% range then what does that tell you?

Just quickly off the top of my head without checking a list, it seems like there's a lot of #2 picks who won Cups, though almost never with the team that drafted them: Walter, Muller, Simpson, Shanahan, Pronger, Bellows.