Rangers Prospect Poll (Summer 2018): #7 Prospect

[HatTrick Swayze]

Miller. Add Barron. Also, why is Hajek 4th? When Pionk hasn’t even been voted in yet

Because many view his upside as significantly higher.

If there were a league wide fantasy draft I’d pick Hajek over Pionk 10/10 times.

 

[JayMan82]

I agree with you. But I don't see Pionk as a player has a ceiling better than a 3rd pairing D. Frankly, I don't see his ceiling as someone who should be on a contending team at all. I guess that is where we disagree.

In the history of the NHL, I can recall a few defensemen that have developed past the age of 22.

This was his first pro year and he showed glimpses of decent two way play in the midst of a sell-off and produced some impressive stats. I think that's worth a consideration.

 

[Fitzy]

Pionk is probably next on my list after Miller, FWIW.

 

[pblawr]

I see what pionk did, but again, it's just 28 games. It's a very small sample size at the end of the season when the team was a complete cluster. I'm not ready to shoot him up the rankings as one of our top prospects over some 1st round talent players who have a higher upside than him.

I agree with the small sample size comment, but to me it's moreso about what he showed he could do in the NHL and the toolset he displayed than the stats he produced. I think plays like stopping Ovechkin one-on-one or going end to end through the entire Caps team are evidence that he has high upside. On top of that, I think his toolset is good enough to be a top 4 player with premium offense. He's a fantastic skater, he has a high compete level, he makes a lot of smart reads in the offensive zone, and he has a solid shot.

I would also add that a lot of the guys going above Pionk (after Chytil, Shesty, Kravstov, and Lias) have limits on their upside too:
- Hajek might become a guy you can put out against the other team's top line, but he's never really scored at a high rate at any level and I think his offensive upside is limited
- Howden gets left off a lot of top prospect lists because of concerns about his upside
- Even Gordie Clark said he doesn't see Miller manning an NHL Power Play

If any of those guys had upside as a #1 D or first line forward I'd put them ahead of Pionk, but given that their upside has limits also, it made sense to me to go with the guy who is already in the NHL.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

No one here is concerned by Pionk's supposedly dismal advanced stats? I know he was in a tough position but what exactly is the barometer for success?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

No one here is concerned by Pionk's supposedly dismal advanced stats? I know he was in a tough position but what exactly is the barometer for success?

I think the small sample size on a team without any direction (after trading away Miller, Nash, Grabner and McDonagh, and losing Kreider and Shattenkirk to long-term injuries) should not be ignored but it should also be looked at in context. While it's not definitive either way, it's good to keep this in mind going forward. Pionk was put in a tough position, playing heavy minutes. He was in over his head due to unforeseen circumstances. I feel the fact that he didn't look like Michael Kostka out there is at least promising.

 

[pblawr]

No one here is concerned by Pionk's supposedly dismal advanced stats? I know he was in a tough position but what exactly is the barometer for success?

I'm skeptical of them.

1) They are only from 28 games. I think you need to have a degree of skepticism about stats based on a small sample size.

2) I think there are a lot of situational factors that complicate the application of advanced stats to Pionk's NHL play. Specifically, he frequently played against the other team's top line, with weak defensive partners, while starting in his own defensive zone. I'm aware that there are stats that adjust for these factors, but making those adjustments exacerbates the small sample size issue and including the adjustments for all those factors adds noise to the statistical output you get (they aren't perfect adjustments and the noise can be especially prominent given the small sample size, again).

3) His situation was fairly unique. He was a 22-year old playing against the other team's top line in his first 30 games in the NHL. That's not a typical situation for those stats to be applied to. In general, I think possession or expected goal stats are intended to give you a picture of how well a player performed relative other players in the league. They aren't designed to tell you how a prospect projects, controlling for the situation he played in and the experience he had at the time. As far as I know, there aren't any advanced stats that compare Pionk to a baseline of all the other rookie defensemen who frequently matched up against the other team's top line in their first 30 NHL games, which is the comparison that I think would be the most relevant from a prospect evaluation perspective.

I'm not an anti-stats guy, I just think that in this case the sample size and situational factors are significant enough that you have to take the stats with a grain of salt.

 

[nyr2k2]

No one here is concerned by Pionk's supposedly dismal advanced stats? I know he was in a tough position but what exactly is the barometer for success?

Not really. One year prior he was finished with his NCAA season after 42 games. Then he comes in and through 48 games is the best all-around defenseman in Hartford, his rookie debut. Then, he makes the jump to an abysmal Rangers team and assumes the role of a first-pair D, when many college guys are hitting a rookie wall. When looking at the totality of the circumstances, I think he did great. I don't really care what the "advanced" stats say in this instance.

 

[Lundy HOF]

Miller, add Day

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Rykov, add Huska.

Rykov is really underrated by most here because he plays in a league they won't bother to watch. He played just as well, if not better, at the 2017 WJC than Hajek played at the 2018 WJC. He also just finished a really good season with the best team outside the NHL. And considering all our defense prospects, Hajek, Rykov, Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov has the most dynamic game of all of them. His lack of votes here doesn't make much sense.

 

[Fitzy]

No one here is concerned by Pionk's supposedly dismal advanced stats? I know he was in a tough position but what exactly is the barometer for success?

The barometer is not one particular method of analysis after a third of a season's worth of games. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I view them as a piece of the puzzle rather than the singular focus of all my attention. Pionk did enough things very well on the ice both in Hartford and under heavy minutes in the NHL to make me less than concerned about shot generation.

Kid had the 2nd highest TOI/game played on the whole NYR roster last season. That's a lot of responsibility to bear at a time when the team is struggling.

 

[CaptBagel]

I went with lundkvist
He will be their best dman in 5 years imo
Pionk is a solid third pair RD on a great team
Miller still too risky to rank this high yet
I do like rykov.
He's probably my next guy

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Miller. Add Day.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I went with lundkvist
He will be their best dman in 5 years imo
Pionk is a solid third pair RD on a great team
Miller still too risky to rank this high yet
I do like rykov.
He's probably my next guy

I'm surprised Lundkvist got so few votes. I voted Miller but he'd probably be my next guy. Or Rykov.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Rykov, add Huska.

Rykov is really underrated by most here because he plays in a league they won't bother to watch. He played just as well, if not better, at the 2017 WJC than Hajek played at the 2018 WJC. He also just finished a really good season with the best team outside the NHL. And considering all our defense prospects, Hajek, Rykov, Miller, Lundkvist, Rykov has the most dynamic game of all of them. His lack of votes here doesn't make much sense.

I dunno; I like Rykov, but it seems a little early.

Do you think that at the TDL we would of been able to trade Grabner for a second and the early rights to Miller (if Jersey had owned them for argument's sake)? I think they would of laughed at that offer.

Granted, Rykov's value to them may have been a little lower if they were concerned about him coming to NA, but not so much as for them to sell him at half value or anything so drastic.

 

[Savant]

Miller then Pionk, add Lettieri.

This

 

[Good Intentions]

Lundkvist - no disrespect to Miller but I’m just so impressed with where he’s at now (contrasting it with Miller who will just start his college career in the fall). Counting on a late growth spurt to get to 6’1 or more and set of skills that could reasonably take him to 1D level.

Add Barron.

Really nicely said. Just get the vibe that Lundkvist possesses all the classic Swedish DMan traits - high IQ, elite intangibles, responsible in both zones. If he’s this effective now - at this level - with the body of a 15 year old, what will he be in 4 years?

Feels like we’re building this not so differently from the Red Wings of 15-18 years ago. Huge compliment.

 

[egelband]

In the history of the NHL, I can recall a few defensemen that have developed past the age of 22.

This was his first pro year and he showed glimpses of decent two way play in the midst of a sell-off and produced some impressive stats. I think that's worth a consideration.

Totally. He has skill and heart. At least that’s what i saw. He may not be big or even super fast. But if his hockey brain matches the heart and skill I think he’ll be fine.
Jury still out, but I would lean toward him being more likely to make it rather than less likely.

 

[darko]

The advanced stats folks have really soured me towards Pionk.

He got thrown in the deep end.

 

[egelband]

I dunno; I like Rykov, but it seems a little early.

Yeah. 100% agree. There’s a lot of projection in ranking Rykov so high. Really unfair to a guy like Pionk who has had some NHL success.

 

[JayMan82]

On the bright side, if a somewhat proven NHL defenseman is as low as no. 8 on this list, we’ve certainly stockpiled some assets.

 

[WeRa]

Miller. Add Ronning

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

For me, it goes:

• Miller
• Lundkvist
• Rykov
• Pionk
• Lindgren
• Georgiev

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Gotta go Pionk here

 

[kovazub94]

Rykov is a difficult case. He plays in the best league outside of NHL at the relatively young age but he plays on a loaded team so his stats might be skewed, he doesn’t get important minutes and doesn’t stand out in anyway. I liked him in WJC but it is still difficult to judge how it all will translate at the NHL level.