Rangers Prospect Poll (Summer 2018): #22 Prospect

[The Crypto Guy]

Ranger's Summer 2018 Prospect Poll

1. Filip Chytil (F) (2017 Draft - 1st round) (66%)
2. Igor Shestyorkin (G) (2014 Draft - 4th round) (59%)
3. Vitali Kravtsov (F) (2018 Draft - 1st round) (52%)
4. Lias Andersson (F) (2017 Draft - 1st round)
5. Libor Hajek (D) (2016 Draft - 2nd round) (44%)
6. Brett Howden (F) (2016 Draft - 1st round) (47%)
7. K'Andre Miller (D) (2018 Draft - 1st round) (55%)
8. Neal Pionk (D) (Undrafted) (56%)
9. Nils Lundkvist (D) (2018 Draft - 1st round) (60%)
10. Ryan Lindgren (D) (2016 Draft - 2nd round) (41%)
11. Alexander Georgiev (G) (Undrafted) (50%)
12. Yegor Rykov (D) (2016 Draft - 5th round)
13. Ty Ronning (F) (2016 Draft - 7th round) (28%)
14. Vinni Lettieri (F) (Undrafted) (28%)
15. Sean Day (D) (2016 Draft - 3rd round) (27%)
16. Ville Meskanen (F) (Undrafted) (32%)
17. Jacob Ragnarsson (D) (2018 Draft - 3rd round) (27%)
18. Morgan Barron (F) (2017 Draft - 6th round) (31%)
19. Patrik Virta (F) (2017 Draft - 7th round) (34%)
20. Michael Lindqvist (F) (Undrafted) (30%)
21. Lauri Pajuniemi (F) (2018 Draft - 5th round) (23%)

*Anthony DeAngelo played 6 too many NHL games is no longer eligible*
----------------------------------------------​

Added: Fontaine

Please post who you want added, eligible prospects that can be added:

Bernhardt, Daniel LW/L
Bigras, Chris D/L
Crawley, Brandon D/L
Fogarty, Steven D/L
Gilmour, John D/L
Gropp, Ryan LW/L
Gross, Nico D/L
Halverson, Brandon G/L
Hughes, Riley RW/R
Kjellberg, Simon LW/L
Lakatos, Dominik C/L
Leedahl, Dawson LW/L
Nanne, Tyler D-F/R
Nell, Chris G/L
O'Gara, Rob D/L
Pedrie, Vince D/L
Reunanen, Tarmo D/L
Sjalin, Calle D/L
Wall, Tyler G/L

Click to read more...

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I'm pretty surprised that Gettinger is getting so underrated and likely won't even be a top 25 prospect. Huge body at 6'6 and has steadily improved every season in the WHL to become a point a game player last season. I could see him rocketing up the Winter ratings if he starts off well this season in the AHL.

 

[Matt4776]

Lindbom. Add Hughes.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Going with Fontaine because I feel he and Boo aren't that far apart in terms of current potential, yet Fontaine has some room to grow still.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Nieves is a better prospect than at least 5 of the guys ranked already, IMO.

Add Bigras, I suppose. He had decent numbers down the stretch for Hartford.

 

[Edge]

Went with Keane.

He's a bit of a late bloomer, and there's nothing particularly flashy or eye-catching about his game, but he had a very good season in the OHL in 2018.

The question is whether he can build on that. But if he does, he's going to climb up the rankings.

Add Gropp. Who for as disappointing of a season as he had, was actually tied for the second highest goal pace on the team.

 

[Good Intentions]

Is Fontaine the next Dale Weise?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Huska, add Hughes

 

[eco's bones]

Nieves. Bigras.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Voted quickly, without looking. Should of went Fontaine, but I can't imagine it will make a difference this round anyway.

Add Gilmour.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Lindbom, add Gropp.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Boo. Add Bigras.

 

[pblawr]

Went with Keane.

He's a bit of a late bloomer, and there's nothing particularly flashy or eye-catching about his game, but he had a very good season in the OHL in 2018.

The question is whether he can build on that. But if he does, he's going to climb up the rankings.

Add Gropp. Who for as disappointing of a season as he had, was actually tied for the second highest goal pace on the team.

Keane, add Sjalin.

Our rankings of CHL and ex-CHL players seem all over the place to me.

Ronning is ranked 13th. Meanwhile Gropp, who produced at a higher rate than Ronning in his overage year, and Gettinger, who is almost a year younger than Ronning and wasn't that far behind Ronning in terms of point production, haven't been ranked yet. I appreciate that Gropp and Gettinger had superior supporting casts, and I agree with ranking Ronning first out of those 3 players, but it doesn't make sense to me that the difference between 3 players who performed relatively similarly in their overage years should be so large.

I also worry that expectations for how high-scoring CHL overagers will adjust to the AHL are unrealistic. I don't think the drop off that Gropp experienced last year is that unusual. Fontaine experienced a similar drop off last year too. So I worry that expectations for what Ronning will do in the AHL might be unrealistic and also think people might be overreacting the drop off Gropp had last year.

Additionally, Day, who wasn't mentioned in OHL defensemen award voting, is ahead of Keane, who won the OHL East's best defensive defenseman award and was a finalist for the OHL defensemen of the year award. OHL coaches seem to feel pretty strongly that Keane is a better defenseman than Day, despite the fact that Keane is a year and a half younger, so I'm not sure why we are ranking Day roughly 10 spots ahead of Keane.

 

[nyr2k2]

Nieves, O'Gara.

 

[Let Blaine Die]

Huska, add Bigras.

 

[nyr2k2]

Is Fontaine the next Dale Weise?

I doubt it. Weise was a banger and that helped him adjust to the professional game and become an impact player offensively by year two. I'd be really surprised to see Fontaine take that kind of step forward. He also doesn't play the same game that Weise did. He may become the next Weise in the sense that he could be a fourth liner we developed that's actually worth keeping, but that's where the comparison ends for me.

Keane, add Sjalin.

Our rankings of CHL and ex-CHL players seem all over the place to me.

Ronning is ranked 13th. Meanwhile Gropp, who produced at a higher rate than Ronning in his overage year, and Gettinger, who is almost a year younger than Ronning and wasn't that far behind Ronning in terms of point production, haven't been ranked yet. I appreciate that Gropp and Gettinger had superior supporting casts, and I agree with ranking Ronning first out of those 3 players, but it doesn't make sense to me that the difference between 3 players who performed relatively similarly in their overage years should be so large.

I also worry that expectations for how high-scoring CHL overagers will adjust to the AHL are unrealistic. I don't think the drop off that Gropp experienced last year is that unusual. Fontaine experienced a similar drop off last year too. So I worry that expectations for what Ronning will do in the AHL might be unrealistic and also think people might be overreacting the drop off Gropp had last year.

Additionally, Day, who wasn't mentioned in OHL defensemen award voting, is ahead of Keane, who won the OHL East's best defensive defenseman award and was a finalist for the OHL defensemen of the year award. OHL coaches seem to feel pretty strongly that Keane is a better defenseman than Day, despite the fact that Keane is a year and a half younger, so I'm not sure why we are ranking Day roughly 10 spots ahead of Keane.

I agree Ronning is too high. I also agree Gettinger is far too low. Ronning was a fun but really kind of mediocre player until last season. Now granted he didn't have a lot of help most of his career, but still, he was a little guy that didn't score. I definitely think he can potentially stick since he's a hard worker and is relatively strong for his size, but yeah, the 60-goals as an over-ager stuff really inflated perceptions of him.

Gettinger, I actually like his chances more than Ronning, but with a lower ceiling. The knock on Gettinger is his skating. He plays a very pro-style game though so I'm hoping he has some good success as a rookie. Again though, I do have concerns about the skating. I would have been pushing for him by now but I voted Virta for like three or four rounds before he finally won, and then went straight to Nieves, who I may be on my fourth time voting for.

Gropp, his rookie season did certainly cause him to drop. However, he has never really been particularly popular here. If he was ever ranked highly it was because the system was shit. A lot of folks hated the pick and then a lot of people said he was strictly a passenger for Barzal, or that when he wasn't playing with Barzal, his numbers weren't good for someone his age picked in the second round. So, people have been hard on him and him doing poorly last season just reinforced it. I was more forgiving over his Junior career, but he looked awful last year. Very reminiscent of Tambellini, a guy who in Juniors was excellent at finding space to get off his plus shot and rack up points. Gropp found neither the time nor the space last season and just wasn't processing things quickly enough. Yes, he was a rookie, but I've seldom seen someone look that ineffective as a rookie go onto "figure it out" thereafter. I have little hope for him.

Keane is an interesting prospect for sure. Day is less interesting to me. However, you can see the allure of Day's potential upside is wearing off around here. The thread about him, I think it was largely agreed that the massive upside probably doesn't exist anymore and he's seen as anywhere from a total bust to maybe a 4/5 at absolute best. People know less about Keane but if he has another big year he'll pass Day soon enough. I don't really care about accolades, we had Mantha win Top Defenseman or whatever in the OHL and didn't even give him a contract, Nejezchleb was the top over-ager in the WHL and he was an ECHL-level player, Zborovskiy's coach called him the best defenseman in the WHL, etc. That's just the past couple years. It's not to say they mean nothing, but I think we all understand that being a great Junior player doesn't mean you're even a good pro prospect. So, there may be some of that with Keane. Until we all get familiar with him those are just hollow awards. I like him though and I'm eager to see what he does this year.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

I feel like I’ve been Lindbom, add Gilmour for five spots now

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Keane add Bigras

 

[Lays]

Close between Fontaine/Nieves. Both are almost NHL ready but at the same time I wanna go with Keane because I really like him. I’ll go Fontaine-can’t forget this beauty he scored (last season)

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Close between Fontaine/Nieves. Both are almost NHL ready but at the same time I wanna go with Keane because I really like him. I’ll go Fontaine-can’t forget this beauty he scored (last season)

That was 2 seasons ago. He played in the AHL last season.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

That was 2 seasons ago. He played in the AHL last season.

Who won the Stanley Cup this season? Washington
Who won the Stanley Cup last season? Pittsburgh

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Who won the Stanley Cup this season? Washington
Who won the Stanley Cup last season? Pittsburgh

The last season of hockey that was played was the 2018 season. You're on a roll today huh?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The last season of hockey that was played was the 2018 season. You're on a roll today huh?

You bring out the best in me.

 

[nyr2k2]

This is all OT, but I consider that when the draft and free agency happen, we're now onto "this" season and the season that just occurred is "last" season.

 

[pblawr]

I doubt it. Weise was a banger and that helped him adjust to the professional game and become an impact player offensively by year two. I'd be really surprised to see Fontaine take that kind of step forward. He also doesn't play the same game that Weise did. He may become the next Weise in the sense that he could be a fourth liner we developed that's actually worth keeping, but that's where the comparison ends for me.

I agree Ronning is too high. I also agree Gettinger is far too low. Ronning was a fun but really kind of mediocre player until last season. Now granted he didn't have a lot of help most of his career, but still, he was a little guy that didn't score. I definitely think he can potentially stick since he's a hard worker and is relatively strong for his size, but yeah, the 60-goals as an over-ager stuff really inflated perceptions of him.

Gettinger, I actually like his chances more than Ronning, but with a lower ceiling. The knock on Gettinger is his skating. He plays a very pro-style game though so I'm hoping he has some good success as a rookie. Again though, I do have concerns about the skating. I would have been pushing for him by now but I voted Virta for like three or four rounds before he finally won, and then went straight to Nieves, who I may be on my fourth time voting for.

Gropp, his rookie season did certainly cause him to drop. However, he has never really been particularly popular here. If he was ever ranked highly it was because the system was ****. A lot of folks hated the pick and then a lot of people said he was strictly a passenger for Barzal, or that when he wasn't playing with Barzal, his numbers weren't good for someone his age picked in the second round. So, people have been hard on him and him doing poorly last season just reinforced it. I was more forgiving over his Junior career, but he looked awful last year. Very reminiscent of Tambellini, a guy who in Juniors was excellent at finding space to get off his plus shot and rack up points. Gropp found neither the time nor the space last season and just wasn't processing things quickly enough. Yes, he was a rookie, but I've seldom seen someone look that ineffective as a rookie go onto "figure it out" thereafter. I have little hope for him.

Keane is an interesting prospect for sure. Day is less interesting to me. However, you can see the allure of Day's potential upside is wearing off around here. The thread about him, I think it was largely agreed that the massive upside probably doesn't exist anymore and he's seen as anywhere from a total bust to maybe a 4/5 at absolute best. People know less about Keane but if he has another big year he'll pass Day soon enough. I don't really care about accolades, we had Mantha win Top Defenseman or whatever in the OHL and didn't even give him a contract, Nejezchleb was the top over-ager in the WHL and he was an ECHL-level player, Zborovskiy's coach called him the best defenseman in the WHL, etc. That's just the past couple years. It's not to say they mean nothing, but I think we all understand that being a great Junior player doesn't mean you're even a good pro prospect. So, there may be some of that with Keane. Until we all get familiar with him those are just hollow awards. I like him though and I'm eager to see what he does this year.

I think you make a lot of really good points.

The biggest one, for me, is that players who don't excel in junior leagues until they are older rarely turn into valuable pros:
- Zboro was great in the WHL and got waived
- Nej scored at a high rate in the WHL and couldn't make the AHL
- Mantha won the top defensemen award in the OHL and wasn't signed
- Gropp scored over a ppg in the WHL and struggled in the AHL
- Fontaine scored almost a ppg in the Q and put up less than 20 points in the AHL

That history is very concerning to me when it comes to guys like Ronning, Gettinger, and Day.

In general, it seems like for a junior league player to be a legit prospect, they have to stand out while they are still young.

I think the history of the OHL top defenseman award supports these points. Here are the last several winners and their age at the end of that season:
Nicolas Hague (2018, age 19)
Darren Raddysh (2017, age 21)
Sergachev (2016, age 17)
DeAngelo (2015, 19)
Ekblad (2014, 18)
Sproul (2013, 20)
Dougie Hamilton (2012, 18)
Ryan Ellis (2011, 20)
Muzzin (2010, 21)
Ellis (2009, 18)
Doughty (2008, 18)
Staal (2007, 20)
Sekera (2006, 19)

The guys who won by 18 or 19 (Sekera, Doughty, Ellis, Hamilton, Ekblad, Sergachev, DeAngelo, and Hague) have almost all turned into really good NHL players, while the guys who won at age 20 or older (Staal, Muzzin, Sproul, and Raddysh) are a mixed bag with a much lower hit rate. My hope is that Keane, who was still 18 when he was nominated as an award finalist, is closer to the first group than the second, although I don't think anyone thinks he has the upside of guys like Doughty or Ekblad.