Prospect Info: Rangers Prospect Poll: #3

[Zil]

Miller, add Lindberg.

 

[bmoak]

Miller. Add Lindberg.

 

[Beacon]

Are the results of previous polls like this compiled somewhere?

Like a list of the rankings per the votes on here?

Click on "Prospect Info" and you'll get all the prior polls sorted out by round.

 

[Beacon]

For its worth, Anisimov got .581 points per game as a 19-year-old AHL rookie and Miller so far has .538 per game. At the time, HF had him listed as our second-best prospect (http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=550286) so the expectations were pretty high. He wound up getting 80 points over 161 games in the last two seasons, and the 40-point per season pace is probably what we can expect from him going forward in his career. Sure, he'll have a great career year and he'll have a disappointing down year, but I would bet he'll average about 40 points per season over the next 8 seasons before his ability starts to decline due to age.

That's what I expect from Miller. I am not saying because he is scoring the same as AA in Hartford, it proves that he'll be the same, but I'm just not seeing any offense in him that is above what we saw with Anisimov 5 years ago. He can always exceed expectations, but no reasonable projection today can predict that he'll be scoring more than 35-45 points per game as a two-way tweener.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

For its worth, Anisimov got .581 points per game as a 19-year-old AHL rookie and Miller so far has .538 per game. At the time, HF had him listed as our second-best prospect (http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=550286) so the expectations were pretty high. He wound up getting 80 points over 161 games in the last two seasons, and the 40-point per season pace is probably what we can expect from him going forward in his career. Sure, he'll have a great career year and he'll have a disappointing down year, but I would bet he'll average about 40 points per season over the next 8 seasons before his ability starts to decline due to age.

That's what I expect from Miller. I am not saying because he is scoring the same as AA in Hartford, it proves that he'll be the same, but I'm just not seeing any offense in him that is above what we saw with Anisimov 5 years ago. He can always exceed expectations, but no reasonable projection today can predict that he'll be scoring more than 35-45 points per game as a two-way tweener.

Liking what I'm hearing about McI in the AHL, but given the injury and the development curve vs. Miller, I'm going to give the nod to Miller in this poll.

Add Lindberg.

 

[mrudds90]

McIlrath, add Lindberg.

 

[Dalagaze]

Miller. Add Lindberg

 

[Zil]

For its worth, Anisimov got .581 points per game as a 19-year-old AHL rookie and Miller so far has .538 per game. At the time, HF had him listed as our second-best prospect (http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=550286) so the expectations were pretty high. He wound up getting 80 points over 161 games in the last two seasons, and the 40-point per season pace is probably what we can expect from him going forward in his career. Sure, he'll have a great career year and he'll have a disappointing down year, but I would bet he'll average about 40 points per season over the next 8 seasons before his ability starts to decline due to age.

That's what I expect from Miller. I am not saying because he is scoring the same as AA in Hartford, it proves that he'll be the same, but I'm just not seeing any offense in him that is above what we saw with Anisimov 5 years ago. He can always exceed expectations, but no reasonable projection today can predict that he'll be scoring more than 35-45 points per game as a two-way tweener.

Fortunately, your projections are completely meaningless. Everyone who puts up X points in the AHL does not automatically go on to post Y points in the NHL. It doesn't work like that, especially when we're talking about the development of two different young players with two different skillsets.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

So all of the people going McIlrath, what are you predicting him to be? Top 4 D-man? Seriously still can't believe we took him over Tarasenko, one of the top prospects in the NHL. I know a lot of people think we went with need. Well that's ridiculous since you're drafting a raw 18 year old. We had and still do a lot of need for top talent in our prospect pool for a dynamic forward. We had a million D-men. So when you have 2 needs you go with the guy that can become a 1st line forward, not the guy that could become a second pairing D-man.

 

[Beacon]

Fortunately, your projections are completely meaningless. Everyone who puts up X points in the AHL does not automatically go on to post Y points in the NHL. It doesn't work like that, especially when we're talking about the development of two different young players with two different skillsets.

Fortunately, most people have reading skills that you don't. I specifically said that this isn't based purely on the two of them having identical stats, but rather that it was part of the equation. I cited stats because some people act like him scoring 0.5 points per game as a 19 year old is a great achievement and a sign of great offensive strength, and it was important to show that 0.5 points per game doesn't mean he'll be a scorer.

Then I went on with the rest of the argument based on actually watching him play. You know, that thing I do that you don't do: watch prospects.


This forum (and others) functions on a joint opinion of people who mostly have no clue and base it on hype, or lack of it. One person who doesn't know what he's talking about says something to the other and he repeats it to the third person, and it becomes common knowledge. And any opinion to the contrary is ridiculous. Then a report comes out and suddenly everyone's opinion changes.

The latest example of it is Hrivik. For over a month nobody gave me the time of day on Hrivik. Then yesterday Brooks writes that the Rangers are thinking of making him the only prospect to be invited to camp next week, and suddenly he's everyone's choice as a surprise prospect of the year. That had nothing to do with what Brooks wrote, right?

Other prospects, whether good (JAM) or bad (Pashnin), any deviation from the chorus makes your opinion ridiculous, until it becomes clear to the chorus that they were wrong and they quietly move on.

This is true in other spheres as well. For two years I was making a ridiculous argument that the cap will not go down, and that it is likely to be higher in 2012-13 than it was in 2011-12, and it will never be lower. What a ridiculous opinion that was. After all, it went against the chorus.

And let's not forget the chorus belief that mid and late first rounders are projected second liners who'll be in the NHL in 2 years after their draft year. Every year this is said by every team's fans and two years later, nobody remembers making this projection, as the same projection is made for yet another first rounder.


So yeah, there's an advantage to watching games (instead of falsely insinuating that you do) and keeping track of all draftees, not just the couple stars that were the exception to the rule for the position they drafted.

But you stick with your nasty comments because it makes you feel superior and it makes it look like you actually know what you are talking about and you actually watch games.

 

[broadwayblue]

So all of the people going McIlrath, what are you predicting him to be? Top 4 D-man? Seriously still can't believe we took him over Tarasenko, one of the top prospects in the NHL. I know a lot of people think we went with need. Well that's ridiculous since you're drafting a raw 18 year old. We had and still do a lot of need for top talent in our prospect pool for a dynamic forward. We had a million D-men. So when you have 2 needs you go with the guy that can become a 1st line forward, not the guy that could become a second pairing D-man.

At the end of the day the organization didn't have the same thought process. Perhaps they were afraid of using a high pick on a Russian player? I really can't say for sure. I was definitely surprised when McIlrath was called...particularly over Tarasenko and Fowler. But I haven't let that bother me in quite a while as what's done is done. You should try and move on as well.

 

[Beacon]

So all of the people going McIlrath, what are you predicting him to be? Top 4 D-man? Seriously still can't believe we took him over Tarasenko, one of the top prospects in the NHL.

This is a terribly unfair argument. No team can draft the guy who years later turns out to be the best player of all those available. Imagine if your boss held you to this standard: if someone ever does a better job than you, then you are a miserable failure and he will never forgive you.

And I don't want to hear from people who say that you wanted Tarasenko from the start. People tend to imagine things that didn't actually happen or Tarasenko was merely one of a several players you mentioned. I don't even care if you were actually right about Tarasenko. You were wrong the other 95% of the time. Where are all the players who whined about us drafting Stepan instead of Jared Staal or Kirill Petrov?

Since 2004, our scouting staff did a better job than any other team's when taking the draft position into account. While not every pick will become a Hall of Famer, overall the record is phenomenal and all the whining that they didn't choose the best player every time is preposterous.

 

[Zil]

First off, my mistake on missing that line. Total brain fart.

I specifically said that this isn't based purely on the two of them having identical stats, but rather that it was part of the equation. I cited stats because some people act like him scoring 0.5 points per game as a 19 year old is a great achievement and a sign of great offensive strength, and it was important to show that 0.5 points per game doesn't mean he'll be a scorer

I haven't really seen anyone using Miller's stats as the reason to be high on him. It's a lot more talking about his game and how it compares favorably to Dubinsky's. They have similar physical skills, but Miller appears to have much better knowledge of his limits and when not to try to be too fancy.

So yeah, there's an advantage to watching games (instead of falsely insinuating that you do) and keeping track of all draftees, not just the couple stars that were the exception to the rule for the position they drafted.

I love how because I missed a line in one of your posts, I now am a fraud responsible for every horrible, unjust criticism you've ever had to face. It's funny because the only time I've ever had a hockey disagreement with you has been over St. Croix and your "statistical" projections for him. You know, the ones based on not watching the games.

But you stick with your nasty comments because it makes you feel superior and it makes it look like you actually know what you are talking about and you actually watch games.

Something about pot and a kettle.

 

[Jabroni]

Miller.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I am quite surprised by the Miller landslide.

 

[Zil]

I am quite surprised by the Miller landslide.

I think a lot of it has to do with he's the only high pedigree prospect doing reasonably well left on the board. That and the WJCs just ended and everyone saw his strong tournament.

There's a real lack of clarity in the system right now. It's too early to tell whether Thomas will successfully adjust to the pro game or what kind of pro McIlrath will be. Lindberg and Fast are doing well, but nobody knows how they'll transfer to the North American game. Hrivik's a darkhorse and Skjei's too far away. It's funny, because I think Gorton and Clark are still bringing a lot of talent into the system. We're just at a particularly murky point in everyone's development.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I am quite surprised by the Miller landslide.

It will only really get interesting after the McIlrath and Skjei landslides to follow.

 

[Boruto]

Its a concern, but I'm in the mode where the next 3 seasons are the important ones in my mind.

Ya. Although the key is always to be building. Detroit has gotten thus far on good depth in all their years and not to let the future slip up at the cost of "the window".

Slats and his drafting this past year and the next 2-3 years will be vital.

 

[Boruto]

It was 5-0 McIlrath before the Miller landslide

 

[Nanaki]

Miller, add St. Croix

 

[Joey Bones]

Miller add Lindberg.

 

[NYR Viper]

For me, after Miller the list goes:

McIlrath
Lindberg
Fast
Thomas
Skjei
Hrivik
St. Croix
Nieves
Noreau
Kolarik(if he is still considered a prospect)
Fogarty
Andersson
Ceresnak
McColgan
Talbot
Bourque
Spelling

 

[nyr2k2]

Players eligible for addition:

Andersson
Bourque
Ceresnak
Delisle
Fogarty
Jean
Lindberg
McColgan
Missiaen
Niemi
Nieves
Noreau
Parlett
Pashnin
St. Croix
Spelling
Stajcer
Talbot
Wilson
Yogan
Zuccarello

 

[Clowes Line]

Miller. Add Lindberg.

 

[jniklast]

Miller, add Lindberg