Post-Game Talk: Rangers at Lightning - March 6

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Yeah but did you see that fight? Inspirational man. Two garbage hockey players fighting over nothing really got that team spirit up.

Your unwillingness to even cede an inch in this argument stinks of ignorance. These things do change the tenor of a game.

 

[silverfish]

Your unwillingness to even cede an inch in this argument stinks of ignorance. These things do change the tenor of a game.

Here's the relationship this season between fighting majors and points:

In the grand scheme of things, fights are meaningless. And they can't possibly mean something during the game to give one team an advantage, because in order for there to be a fight, it will have combatants from both teams.

 

[Zil]

If we shouldn't count on stellar goaltending every night, why shouldn't we count on the team getting its stuff together offensively and defensively?

Because they haven't had their stuff together offensively and defensively since early in the season.

Your unwillingness to even cede an inch in this argument stinks of ignorance. These things do change the tenor of a game.

Every study done shows they either have negligible or negative impact:

We can see in all four of these data sets that there is no evidence that winning a fight leads to better results in the immediate aftermath of the fight. In fact, it appears that the team winning the fight will score slightly less goals in the game than they did previously. In all four groups, the percentage of goals scored by the winning team is within 1.96 standard deviations of the percentage of its total goals scored, indicating that the results are negligible. Thus, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that winning a fight has no impact on a team’s momentum and goal differential.

https://georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-true-impact-of-a-hockey-fight/

Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of how little something like fighting should have on future outcomes can see that this 54%-to-46% data set is nothing more than getting lucky (or, unlucky) on a series of coin-flips. Realistically, the number should be just about 50%-50%. The methodology in this study is questionable, too. My guess is that an even-more rigourous aproach, with score-effect adjustments and the lot, will turn up what everyone expects: there's truly nothing to see, because fighting is irrelevant to future performance.

But if you're Nick Kypreos and still under the impression that fighting can impact games (and, more specifically, goal-scoring), there's your answer. It absolutely can. For the other team. And the goal for all fighting-types should be the same from here forward. Start a fight, but take a dive. Lose at all costs. If you're a gritty, heart-and-soul guy looking to sacrifice your well-being for the success of your hockey team, wear a flurry of rights on your face. Do it, and you'll have a 4% better chance at scoring the next goal. Also, enjoy the concussion that comes as a proximate result.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/8/4/winning-a-fight-has-impact-on-future-outcomes

So, I guess, our overall conclusion from this study isn't completely certain. We wind up with a summary like:

1. The effect doesn't seem to exist for run-of-the-mill fights.
2. When a goon fighter on a goon team fights when his team is down, it seems to benefit that team by 1/8 of a goal, or a bit less than a normal power play.
3. But, that effect isn't statistically significant, so we have some doubts that it's real.
4. And, with only 364 such datapoints qualifying out of around 5,000, only a small percentage of fights match the criterion for that kind of boost.

If you had to reduce that to one line, it might be:

At best, there might be a small effect in certain specific circumstances ... but much, much less than sportscasters make it out to be.

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2012/01/do-hockey-fights-lift-teams-performance.html

To be balanced, I will offer the most positive conclusion any study on fighting has ever achieved:

Now before you get excited about your favorite team signing a new goon, remember that an NHL team needs to improve its goal differential by approximately six goals to win one additional game. So winning a fight is worth a little more than 1/80th of a win in the standings; given that the best fighters might win at most ten fights in a season, the direct benefit is probably on the order of having the equipment guys make sure nobody's playing with an illegal stick.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=222

 

[Megustaelhockey]

Oops. Forgot to close this.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2199827