OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: We're the Pirates, bro

[ChaosAgent]

now i am really confused. you just said a nutting business decision to increase attendance made them make a bad looking at the onset trade irrespective of what happened next for meadows/glasnow but yet we arent supposed to view everything baseball ops wise in the context of what it means that nutting owns the pirates?

You are welcome to view everything through that lens. You are right to do so. But a guy who knows baseball just said he prefers talking on this board because we aren't just inundated with that stuff (even if it's right). Even those of us in this thread who are optimistic about the new baseball regime and the minor league system have a wary eye towards ownership. Its just that ownership becomes tiresome to talk about.

 

[cookthebooks]

purely baseball like the archer trade to increase attendance

 

[Winger for Hire]

I thought we were past digging up this trade other than mentioning it in passing.

I'll check back in tonight to see if anyone wants to discuss Jack Herman. Hadn't heard of him until that PL list came out.

 

[ChaosAgent]

purely baseball like the archer trade to increase attendance

CTB - realized we are ships passing in the might here. You are defending Wilbur's right to be cynical. I totally agree. Everyone has a right to be cynical and Wilbur is probably the biggest Pirate fan around. He has earned his bonafides.

I'm still peeved from the wave of "f the Pirates" after the Marte trade (from posters who I respect for their Pens opinions so I can't set them to ignore) that really threatened to derail the quality of this thread here.

It's no biggie either way.

 

[Gallatin]

He's way too young and raw to get that detailed into his future like that.

I know I've seen at least 2 Miguel Cabrera comps on him.

Prospectslive is putting out an amazing amount of free info this year. I was shocked at how detailed they are in their evals, especially past the top-20. Not sure what to think, except that clearly this is the work of a whole group. Must have some decent start-up cash sitting around....

 

[Gallatin]

i dont think hes passive about his disdain at all. i also dont understand how you can talk about baseball, which is a business, without talking about the limitations on your preferred franchise arbitrarily set by the owner of that business which are decidedly out of line with other owners self imposed limitations. it hangs over every aspect of the organization from drafting, international signing, player development, and the major league club.

Dude - I'm just done with all the whine....

I follow the Bucs on my own terms, heavily focused on what I care most about, which is quality management, player aquasition, and development.

I feel there's something worth following going on right now with the Bucs. I do not whish to be part of this constant endless put-down of the org. because the owner sucks. I don't give them a cent of my money since the Archer trade. But I love to follow and learn about organizational development, in particular now that we have potentially great management.

And I would much rather discuss the possibility of MLB getting a cap, and more even playing field. That has a better chance of happening than Nutting changing his ways IMO.

 

[Gallatin]

i dont think hes passive about his disdain at all. i also dont understand how you can talk about baseball, which is a business, without talking about the limitations on your preferred franchise arbitrarily set by the owner of that business which are decidedly out of line with other owners self imposed limitations. it hangs over every aspect of the organization from drafting, international signing, player development, and the major league club.

It definitely does. Nutting is a disgrace and runs the Pirates as a profit center rather than a break-even business with the promise of cashing out at a higher valuation (as owners these days ought to do).

But harping on this subject constantly really impedes discussion and enjoyment for most of us. I really don't want this thread to become another one of those places.

Thank you. Your last paragraph is why I came aboard.

 

[Gallatin]

You are welcome to view everything through that lens. You are right to do so. But a guy who knows baseball just said he prefers talking on this board because we aren't just inundated with that stuff (even if it's right). Even those of us in this thread who are optimistic about the new baseball regime and the minor league system have a wary eye towards ownership. Its just that ownership becomes tiresome to talk about.

This....

One of the things I love about this board is that I can usually drop in and read a couple pages of several fairly well read fans discussing actual baseball. I know it's not always like that, but you guys have more conversation focused on things other than taking shots at ownership - than just about any other board I know of these days.

And as a fan of sports - I enjoy the chase for a championship almost as much as attaining the Prize. And yes - I know I am strange for having said such a thing.

 

[ChaosAgent]

This....

One of the things I love about this board is that I can usually drop in and read a couple pages of several fairly well read fans discussing actual baseball. I know it's not always like that, but you guys have more conversation focused on things other than taking shots at ownership - than just about any other board I know of these days.

And as a fan of sports - I enjoy the chase for a championship almost as much as attaining the Prize. And yes - I know I am strange for having said such a thing.

There have been 5 Pittsburgh championships in my non-diapers lifetime.

Each time I'm always a little bit shocked at how...not, overwhelmingly euphoric I am? I'm satisfied and proud, but not on cloud 9 throughout.

I do enjoy the journey as much if not more than the destination.

Whatchu think about Jack Herman, since @Winger for Hire brought him up earlier?

 

[ImporterExporter]

What is Cruz's ceiling for everyone?

 

[Gallatin]

There have been 5 Pittsburgh championships in my non-diapers lifetime.

Each time I'm always a little bit shocked at how...not, overwhelmingly euphoric I am? I'm satisfied and proud, but not on cloud 9 throughout.

I do enjoy the journey as much if not more than the destination.

Whatchu think about Jack Herman, since @Winger for Hire brought him up earlier?

I've always been more about the Journey too. Nice to see a kindred spirit on here.

Jack Herman is an enigma to me. A 5ish tool player that was injured his Junior year of high school. The year before and year after he was Player Of The Year in the state of New Jersey. Well, those were New Jersey media outlets - so I guess they didn't count? How did this guy last to the 30th round?

I can't understand how this kid wasn't picked earlier, can't understand why nobody ever talks about him? Does he have A communicable disease or something?

I don't know what to make honestly - being I'm a data accumulator. And I hardly ever here about this kid, or detailed dives on his tools at least. And I have not seen him play....

Among hitters - highest ceiling after Cruz maybe?

 

[Gallatin]

What is Cruz's ceiling for everyone?

290/375/650 with good infield D or a really good outfielder. That's the ceiling that he maybe has a 10% chance of hitting IMO. I think of his power potential as Willie Stargell-like. BTW I used to know Willie, saw him often the last 5 years of his life.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What is Cruz's ceiling for everyone?

For me I see 6-7 WAR, franchise player type.

But there's a lot of outcomes in between based on how refined as hitter he gets and whether or not his size takes him out of short.

And there's also the chance he busts completely.

But from a raw upside perspective, could you imagine 2019 Bell playing a premium defensive position decently? Yeah, that.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What do we see as Hayes' outcome, also?

At this point I see the GG defense as such a consensus that it's not even worth debate. The question is how high the bat pops...and at this point I'm thinking it stays lower-middle of the pack at 3B. That's still a solid regular but not necessarily a foundational player.

I'd love to be wrong but I've never heard his hit tool really expressed glowingly, more that it'll be good enough to ensure him a major league starting job. Having said that, he's been consistently young for his levels. I'd love to see him rake at Indy in April-May.

 

[Gallatin]

What do we see as Hayes' outcome, also?

At this point I see the GG defense as such a consensus that it's not even worth debate. The question is how high the bat pops...and at this point I'm thinking it stays lower-middle of the pack at 3B. That's still a solid regular but not necessarily a foundational player.

I'd love to be wrong but I've never heard his hit tool really expressed glowingly, more that it'll be good enough to ensure him a major league starting job. Having said that, he's been consistently young for his levels. I'd love to see him rake at Indy in April-May.

Hays has real nice exit velocity, but he tends to hit a ton of ground balls. Sound familiar? One of the guys that may seriously benefit from modern MLB hitting theory.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Hays has real nice exit velocity, but he tends to hit a ton of ground balls. Sound familiar? One of the guys that may seriously benefit from modern MLB hitting theory.

I guess I don't know the extent to which hitting up on the ball/hitting lower on the ball can be taught. Seems pretty instinctual to me.

 

[Gallatin]

I guess I don't know the extent to which hitting up on the ball/hitting lower on the ball can be taught. Seems pretty instinctual to me.

It is one of the revolutions that has overtaken the sport in recent years. Launch Angle is huge right now, just huge. But there is a lot more to it.

The real revolution is in training away from the games using high speed cameras and body sensors to analyze the swing, and then improve it. RAPSODO is an early front runner in that field. Cutting edge hitting coaching is heavily focused on educating young players on how to coach themselves using new technology. Tech is taking over.

This is exactly the reason the Bucs pitching philosophies failed so badly.

 

[Gallatin]

I guess I don't know the extent to which hitting up on the ball/hitting lower on the ball can be taught. Seems pretty instinctual to me.

Way Back, Back, Back: The Unlikely Origin of Baseball’s Launch Angle Revolution

The Launch Angle Revolution - Lawyers, Guns & Money

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansascity.com/latest-news/article214401304.html

Hitting - Rapsodo

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I am extremely high on Hayes, although I do think he needs to unlock a little more power. From all that I read, though, the hit tool is plus, he will get on base, and at least for right now, he can contribute with stolen bases. I think he's like an adjustment away from being looked at as a franchise player. Even if he "only" can scratch 15-20 HRs as a ceiling, he'll be insanely valuable IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

First game of the year, oh boy

 

[Gallatin]

I am extremely high on Hayes, although I do think he needs to unlock a little more power. From all that I read, though, the hit tool is plus, he will get on base, and at least for right now, he can contribute with stolen bases. I think he's like an adjustment away from being looked at as a franchise player. Even if he "only" can scratch 15-20 HRs as a ceiling, he'll be insanely valuable IMO.

No question Hays could be really good. Wish I was as confident as you are he gets there.

 

[ChaosAgent]

No question Hays could be really good. Wish I was as confident as you are he gets there.

If Hayes gets to average offensively for a 3b (no guarantee) that's a 3 WAR player. And he'll probably have a couple years where the bat'll pop. Like Harrison in 2014. He was so valuable that year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Season Prediction, or: My Optimistic Take that the Pirates Will Try to Compete in 2021

TL;DR: The Pirates stink in the first half, but hover around .500 in the second half with many encouraging performances from young players. They go 72-90 but with a lot of optimism flowing.

Note: all these predictions will come true exactly.
Also note: just kidding.

Pitching - where most of the optimism lies

• Joe Musgrove breaks out as a #2-#3 starter. Carries a low-3s ERA throughout the season and is the Pirates best overall player. He is beloved in Pittsburgh. At the deadline, there is crazy interest and offer packages come in that aren't dissimilar to what the Pirates paid for Archer or what the Cubs paid for Quintana. Cherington is negotiating a trade when ownership interferes and vetoes it. Instead the Pirates extend Musgrove for 4 years/$55M with a 5th year team option for $20M.
• Jameson Taillon's injury recovery progresses well. The team and Taillon flirt with a September 2020 return before just shutting him down and waiting for '21.
• Mitch Keller's stuff is always there, but the results in the 1st half are disastrous. In the second half, though, Keller puts it together and retains his top-end upside.
• Chris Archer bounces back well enough to (surprising no one) be traded in July.
• Either Chad Kuhl or JT Brubaker becomes a rotation mainstay.
• Keone Kela performs well and is moved in July.
• Robbie Erlin and Steven Brault both pitch well under the new pitching coach. Erlin and the team express mutual interest in sticking with each other and agree on a 2 year/$7M extension in June.
• 3/4 of Blake Cederlind, Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez and Edgar Santana form a good right-handed bullpen core throughout the season. The bullpen is considered a strength heading into 2021.

Hitting/Defense - making improvements

• Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jared Oliva are both called up in June-July to replace the ineffective Erik Gonzalez and Jarrod Dyson. Both Hayes and Oliva struggle offensively but show tremendous defensive prowess. They each hit well in September and win the starting jobs at 3B and CF for 2021.
• Since Kevin Newman is David Eckstein, he puts together an Eckstein season: .280/.350/.360 and a 2.5 WAR.
• Bryan Reynolds regresses mostly due to batted-ball luck, but still puts up 3 WAR and is locked in as the Pirates starting LF.
• CATCHER OF THE FUTURE is acquired in either the Archer or Kela deals and plays decently in August and September.
• Cole Tucker improves offensively from his first year, but not enough to unseat Adam Frazier who is a mainstay at the top of the Pirates order. Still, Tucker settles into a sort of super-utility role with the Pirates, getting time at 2nd-3rd-short and the outfield.
• Gregory Polanco hits well, above an .800 OPS, but his fielding becomes increasingly unbearable. Not to worry: the NL commits to adopting the DH in 2021 and Polanco is earmarked for the DH spot especially against right-handed pitching.
• Josh Bell puts up worse numbers than 2019, as he does not replicate his astronomical 2019 May. However, he still hits for a very good .280/360/.500 slash line and his defense at 1B goes from "omg this is horrible" to "ehhhhhh we can live with it I guess." Which is good because Polanco and his contract have already been ticketed for the DH spot. Talk of a $100M contract is in the rearview but Bell's career is in a far more stable/established place.

I'd keep going but I'm already at a gazillion words and gonna play golf. Flame away!

 

[Empoleon8771]

I know it's just spring training, but Williams giving up 4 runs in 2 innings with a walk, a HBP and no strikeouts really isn't that encouraging to see. I'm really hoping to see a bounceback season from him.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I know it's just spring training, but Williams giving up 4 runs in 2 innings with a walk, a HBP and no strikeouts really isn't that encouraging to see. I'm really hoping to see a bounceback season from him.

I omitted Williams from my long list of predictions for a reason. Williams has very marginal talent and so any kind of good performance from him is a bonus. I know he's done well enough in the past but I just don't think righty guys with meh stuff last that long anymore.