OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Sky is Falling

[DanielPlainview]

It's easy to blame injuries, and they have been significant, but any excitement I want to have is diminished by the fact Hurdle is bound to cost this team more games down the line. Hurdle singlehandedly has cost this team at least 5 wins with stupid decisions. This team has to figure out a way to win in spite of him to have a real shot.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think that's fair. It's not totally on injuries, but I think a lot of it coms down to Taillon + Williams, and Taillon is all but counted out for now. I guess we'll find out some fairly definitive news this weekend.

I think to avoid that problem, we basically need to become a team that can get consistent starting pitching going forward and not lose the solid offense which occasionally goes wild with surges. That will be a good team, especially with RichRod back, and at least a small shot that somebody like Keller, Tucker, or Hayes could still provide an internal boost. It will be relatively Hurdle-proof, but he'll still find a way I'm sure.

I think we're nearing the post limit. On to another do or die series with cautious, ever-so-slight hope.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm definitely hoping the Pirates don't buy, I'm very much in the selling mindset. That doesn't mean "blow up the team", but I'd be willing to move anyone outside of Newman, Reynolds, Diaz and Bell. Them going on a winning streak really doesn't change what they should do: start selling off some of the mediocre depth pieces you have to let your young guys with upside shine.

Like I said yesterday, the big move I'd be making is trading Polanco and re-signing Dickerson. I'm pretty much over the Polanco experiment at this point, him having a bum arm after his surgery makes him a dramatically less valuable player for this team.

 

[DanielPlainview]

The Cubs being in a series with the Reds this weekend elevates the importance of the Bucs winning their series. It seems unlikely they'll get much help from the Reds.

Archer dropping the 2-seamer is hopefully the start of a comeback of sorts for him. I haven't seen data on it but I'd wager him trying to force that pitch was the primary cause of his HR woes. His game today seems extra important to win given the matchup with Chacin will be the only somewhat favorable one with Lyles v. Woodruff tomorrow and Brault v. Davies on Sunday.

The offense needs to again take advantage of the confines of a hitter's park. I want to see at least two HR a game. I feel like we're due for a Moran tater or two.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is from early June but it has good numbers on Archer's various pitches: Chris Archer vs. the Two-Seamer - The Point of Pittsburgh

In the Atlanta game, I thought early on he was able to use the two-seamer to good effect, because he desperately needed to get into good counts against hitters. I'd need to do more research on numbers to see how this bears out, but I suspect that that game is a good example, because although he can use it for strikes, once hitters have timed it up, they just destroy it. Even earlier in the game, he's looked fairly good but given up crushed HRs on it.

I think he can still occasionally work it in to make sure he stays ahead in the count, but I hope otherwise it's entirely abandoned. That means that he's probably going to live or die based on his four-seam command as well as hitters chasing the slider, and probably continued use of the changeup. He's thrown a lot of really good changeups to my eye test, but he doesn't go to it all that often. But pretty simply, if he can't locate the four-seam in the zone at all, then he's going to end up with more brutal starts with a lot of walks, etc.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's a relatively substantial sample size, although undoubtedly there are some high BABIPs sustaining that. I don't feel like looking up exact numbers, and you have to fudge a little bit, but a key development has been that the rotation has coalesced into something more dependable over the same time period.

Maybe that's going too far, but a lot of the problem starts in this period were the Rookie Davis spot start, Keller's games, Musgrove getting tossed on that bullshit, etc. If you toss out the weird ones and the spot start, there's maybe just 2-3 since the start of June, which when coupled with RichRod re-emerging and even some decent signs from Holmes and Feliz, is really encouraging. We have to keep it up, of course, but the rotation has started trending in the right direction, and I'm certain that it will be the key story if we navigate the next 10 games in a strong way.

 

[td_ice]

Anyone that has The Athletic, has got to read the Mike Piazza buys an Italian soccer team article.