OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Sky is Falling

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DJ Spinoza

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This might be a hot take filled with recency bias, but I sort of think the Pirates should be forcing Cervelli into retirement. That's probably something that needs to be decided on independently of the actual team for ethical reasons, and I don't really think Stallings is the answer as a backup C, but he's adequate enough for now. Concussions are no joke and it's possible that if Cervelli goes back out there, he gets seriously injured. The way the Pirates are commenting, it seems like there's a decent chance that they won't let him catch again.
 

DanielPlainview

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This might be a hot take filled with recency bias, but I sort of think the Pirates should be forcing Cervelli into retirement. That's probably something that needs to be decided on independently of the actual team for ethical reasons, and I don't really think Stallings is the answer as a backup C, but he's adequate enough for now. Concussions are no joke and it's possible that if Cervelli goes back out there, he gets seriously injured. The way the Pirates are commenting, it seems like there's a decent chance that they won't let him catch again.

I agree. I really don't want to see Cervelli behind the plate again. Primarily because he's so susceptible to concussions but also the sharp decline in his skills this year. I think he's done as a major leaguer.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I actually don't hate the idea of putting the lid on Musgrove's day. He tends to wane when his pitch count gets into the 90s, and although a couple of runs is nothing to sweat about in this game, it seems like keeping him fresher for his next turn should take a little bit of a priority, especially with a well rested bullpen. I wonder if we'll see any of the backend guys get work, or if we'll try to get two from Feliz and one from Hartlieb if the score remains this lopsided.
 
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Empoleon8771

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It's too bad they missed their opportunity at selling Cervelli for actual assets, I can't imagine they can even get a return for Cervelli this year. Even if he comes back and shows he's healthy again, no one will want that risk.
 

DJ Spinoza

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It's too bad they missed their opportunity at selling Cervelli for actual assets, I can't imagine they can even get a return for Cervelli this year. Even if he comes back and shows he's healthy again, no one will want that risk.

Yeah, it would have been nice to get something for him, but I'm a little skeptical that there was much of a trade, since the risk was already pretty high for him last winter. Maybe if we had paid his contract completely down, but I doubt it. The one thing I was thinking is that maybe a paid down Cervelli could be an extra trade asset in a Vazquez to LAD deal for a ton of prospects (including Smith or Ruiz), but it seems like if the Pirates force him to not catch, he's basically done.

Disappointing end for a great guy.

Unfortunately it looks like the Cubs will probably win today, and the Brewers have won, but we'll certainly take gaining one game on both of them during this series. Gotta keep the momentum going through the road trip and onto the homestand.
 

DJ Spinoza

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This seems like one to file under "nobody has looked," and maybe that's so because of the small sample size, but damn. The dude does have a pretty decent approach at the plate. He's not a world beater but he isn't a completely empty batting spot either.
 
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DanielPlainview

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I don't know if I've seen a team improve this much at the plate from one season to another. They could put out a lineup where everyone but the pitcher is hitting near .300
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, even though it makes the IF defense a bit suspect, I wouldn't mind trying to see us roll out Moran and Osuna at 2B and 3B for a game in this series, maybe even tomorrow with Archer on the mound.

We aren't getting too much luck with the matchups this weekend, although we haven't really hit Anderson well. Big opportunity to start the series vs Chacin tomorrow, and hopefully keep the bats hot. Then we'll face Woodruff and Davies.

Looking at Archer to have another strong performance, which I'll define vs the Brewers in Miller Park as 6 IP, 3 ER. I really hope tomorrow is the nail in the coffin for him ditching the two-seamer entirely, and getting back to being a four-seam/slider guy, with some curves and changes occasionally tossed in. That's not going to vault him to top of the rotation stuff IMO, but at least it should curb some of the hard hit problems, and maybe make him a decently viable mid-rotation type talent.
 

ImporterExporter

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It's too bad they missed their opportunity at selling Cervelli for actual assets, I can't imagine they can even get a return for Cervelli this year. Even if he comes back and shows he's healthy again, no one will want that risk.

Which is why Huntington is a bum for the most part.

We wait to long to sell on vets.
 

DanielPlainview

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Looks like Brault on Sunday. Wonder if they bring Keller up for the Tuesday start against the Cubs.

I'm not too worried about the Brewers pitching. Woodruff and Davies are good but the Pirates have done decently against them this year. I'm more worried about the Miller Park effect while starting Archer, Lyles, and Brault.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think the pitching is the biggest story between now and the ASB. Certainly the offense can't go suddenly cold, but if we're going to stack up series wins, then it seems like a good bet that we need two full strong turns of the rotation.

I don't think Keller will get another start so soon, since Musgrove would line up for Tuesday on regular rest, and that might be a reason we didn't push him too close to 100 pitches with the lead today.
 

td_ice

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With today's win, the Pirates are the only team to have won a series vs the Astros, in Houston, so far this season.
 
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bigdaddyk88

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Which is why Huntington is a bum for the most part.

We wait to long to sell on vets.
They tried to sell him to the dodgers last season for strippling but the dodgers said no. I am sure they would have loved to unload his contract at anytime last year when he was hitting but no one was interested
 
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bigdaddyk88

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Until they move lyles Keller should stay in Indianapolis but after the trade deadline call him up for good
 

DJ Spinoza

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Not too shocking, but Freeman will start the ASG over Bell. But, what hasn't been mentioned is that there is a DH for both teams, so Bell might have a decent shot at that (the manager picks it).

Also, the Brewers called Hiura back up for tomorrow's game, and sent Shaw to the minors. Just in time for him to hit 5 HRs off our pitching this weekend.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Since we've still got about 24 hours before the next game, here's a bit of meaningless speculation on another scenario at the deadline: Madison Baumgarner.

The Giants have to sell him, and he should get a decent return, but I also doubt that current day GMs are going to overpay for his previous MLB playoff dominance. A good ballpark for value that people are pointing to is the Yu Darvish deal, which sent a top-100 prospect in Willie Calhoun and two other top-30 prospects in a deep Dodgers system.

Three guys is a lot for a rental, but one thing that might help the Pirates out in this kind of a situation is that they have a relatively deep system that is stocked with interesting players. For good reason, I'd imagine Huntington will be gunshy to offer up Hayes, Tucker, or Keller, and although I've repeatedly spoke in favor of moving Keller if it lands Stroman, Huntington probably has the right inclination there if I'm true.

But a true rental situation where you are parting more with depth options might be the ideal kind of package for us to think about, especially since we have some good depth at infield and outfield in the system, including at the very top now with Reynolds, Tucker, Newman, and you can throw Polanco in there as well because of his contract (and even sort of his age).

What does this mean, concretely? Well, we were just lamenting Swaggerty's numbers this year, but he's a prospect that has a similar top-100 profile as Calhoun, or you could take a guess and say he'll drift off the next list, but Craig will have worked his way on. I think there's also some chance that Calvin Mitchell will work his way on. So perhaps one of those guys is the starting point for a MadBum trade, and then the two supplemental pieces could come from the group of Kramer, Alemais, Oliva, Martin (Mason or Jason), Sanchez, or perhaps one of the prep arms. And maybe you even include a guy like Juan Pie as the third piece, instead of one of those other options. It would certainly be a lot to give up for just one rental, but it would be hurting our system more in terms of depth than anything in the near-future window of 3-5 years. Continued solid drafting could replenish that depth fairly well, and as long as you are a believer in the guys like Reynolds and Newman who have broken out, then it's a classic in terms of an aggressive move that doesn't break the bank.

All that said, my hunch is that the team that gets him might end up being the Braves, Brewers, or Astros, because those teams all have the kind of pitching prospect that you might want headlining a deal, whereas Keller is a little bit better than what I'd want to see us do. However, a final twist in this idea is that it gives the Giants more control about getting three pieces that they'd really like, since Bumgarner has basically put all of the other teams who would feasibly try and get him on a no-trade list.
 

ImporterExporter

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This team doesn't need to be buyers. We saw what happened the last time Neal H went that route. I honestly don't even care if we hit July 30th in first place.

Bumgarner?

No. Just no.
 

DanielPlainview

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We'll see where things are around July 20th. If they're above .500 and within 3.5 games, you have to be looking acquisition. A lot depends on where Taillon is, too.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I don't want to use the tried excuse of "I'm just throwing out ideas," although in a sense I definitely am. To try and put my main take as succinctly as possible: I'm inclined to want to see aggression starting with the ASB if we do end up winning all these series and have thus pulled within a handful of games of first. But that's a major if, and even then, there are a few caveats for me, and I think ultimately waiting until July 20th is wiser, because by then we will have a much better idea of the outlook, since there will be another bunch of divisional games in the book.

If we win all these series then I think we should definitely buy in some fashion.

My attitude towards buying is in general pretty simple. The purpose of doing it is to boost your biggest need(s) in order to try and get into a playoff series, where all bets are more or less off at that point, especially in terms of what it takes to build a 88-90+ win team vs what can happen in the span of a couple of games or even innings.

There are multiple ways to try to do that with varying amounts of risk attached. The Archer trade has been unequivocally a failure to this point, although unlike some I still want to see how the full array of it pans out (although Archer continuing to put up below replacement starts would basically kill it even if Meadows' upside is only a pretty good everyday OF and Glasnow never puts it all together).

I have a different idea than what the Pirates are seeming to commit themselves to publicly, which is that they can compete year in and year out with a solid system. I think they've approximately gotten there, which is a testament to them finding themselves in this similar ambiguous state many summers in a row. But I still believe slightly in boom and bust cycles, when you should push your chips in a little more aggressively and then revamp for a couple of years. My read of the Archer and especially Kela trades is that we did just that, and hence if we are again in need of some boosts, we should make another aggressive move before we'll need to do a more substantial tear down after next season.

The idea of Bumgarner is a slight compromise, because I don't presume it would do much more than slightly hurt the depth of the team. That said, maybe Stroman's value isn't quite different than that, in which case I'm back on the Stroman train. Toronto may even be a more ideal partner for a deal involving multiple talented players closer to the majors, but they seem to need pitching and Keller remains right on the borderline for me in terms of a deal. If you think Keller will be more of a middle rotation, Musgrove-type with a slightly better fastball, then I think 1.5 years of Stroman is a good return. But if you think as he refines the offspeed pitches further, there's more swing and miss there, then Keller needs to be lumped in with the players who are untouchable, which for me as it stands are Bell, Taillon, Marte, Reynolds, Newman, Tucker, Hayes, Musgrove, Williams, and probably also Moran and Polanco for contract reasons.


I'm going on and on again but I guess what I'm trying to get around to is that if you think Keller is an impact player, then he needs to be part of that decent young core of mostly pre-arb guys. If not, then he's fine as a trade chip. Prospects are often fickle. MadBum strikes me as someone who would still cost a decent bit, but he allows you more of a wait and see by holding Keller. Stroman's year this year plus the extra year of control is probably enough to demand Keller, although one thing with these deals is that they are often pretty hard to ballpark exactly.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Brewers actually making some substantial roster changes for tomorrow: swapping Shaw for Hiura, and also DFAing Hernan Perez, who has always seemed like a decent utility backup for them.

They are 6-9 since we faced them. By contrast, we are 8-7. That includes the 4 game sweep by Atlanta. Had we managed not to do that and to salvage some games in the slide earlier in the season, we'd probably be talking a lot more about buying, because we'd be in first place.

It's situational stuff like this that keeps me from committing too strongly to one idea. One the one hand, we've been down this kind of road before, and got burned after a hot July last year, relatively speaking. But on the other hand, I think this current team is better than last year's team, and that's with barely any production from Polanco, as well as only two or three weeks from Dickerson. I don't think we're the team that has had these bad stretches if we get better luck with injuries, but I'd be a lot more confident in saying that if we got some good news about Taillon's throwing session this weekend.

When it comes down to it, the division is just a lot more winnable this year, and that's the major bottom line in my thinking. We need to prove that we can win division games and simultaneously be 0-3 games out of first rather than 5, but everybody has substantial flaws. The Cardinals offense is trash and they just lost Hicks. The Cubs are 7-8 over this same period where we are 8-7 and the Brewers are 6-9. If either of these teams were legitimate contenders that were head and shoulders above the rest, they'd be out to an 8 or 9 game division lead.
 
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