OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Sky is Falling

[Scandale du Jour]

Have at it friends

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[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts

They could send him back and I suspect if he gets shelled like this another time or two they will. It doesn't really have an effect on anything other than their impression of his development, since his option has already been used and he's almost definitely cleared the Super Two date.

John Dreker has a few interesting remarks about Keller on his twitter. It seems as though Keller often doesn't break out the curve until later in his starts. I can see the case for him maybe being a bit unlucky in the first inning especially. His struggles were certainly not the same kinds of struggles he faced in the first start, especially if the left side of the infield could have made an above average play to bail him out. The worrying thing to me is that Dreker was saying that he wasn't strictly using the fastball in the first inning, even though it sure looked like it to me. I guess he is working in a cutter, and there was maybe a slider or two.

The 97, 98 mph heat will absolutely play if he can locate it. The question to me is whether that cutter is actually cutting, and whether the Pirates are going to hamstring him by trying to throw that heat low in the zone. Especially if he has a cutter, he can try to locate that lower in the zone for swings and misses or ground balls, but the fastball is good enough that he should be challenging hitters up in the zone. This isn't rocket science, it's literally copying what successful hard throwers are doing all across MLB and directly what multiple failed pitchers under Searage's instructions have done as the cornerstone to being front-end, dominant starters after they've left.

They should literally just keep him away from Searage and give him tapes of Gerrit Cole to watch.

I agree about Vazquez unfortunately. I want to see us do a responsible retool, more or less in line with what Huntington has repeatedly been trying to do, except to tap into the core a little bit more in order to get better pieces back. The Dodgers have the talent depth to be attractive, especially if you can pry guys like Stripling away as part of a package. Stripling, Smith/Ruiz, and a couple pitchers from lower down on their list would be a nice haul.

The trouble is, Cleveland is in just as bad a situation as us, and should be making Brad Hand available, who is arguably more appealing than Vazquez in a trade.

While there's still going to be 1% of me that holds out for the miraculous, i.e., a long winning streak that starts today (let's say 9 games, win today, sweep the Fish, then run the table on the homestand), the rational part of me is fully acknowledging the fact that signifiant changes need to be afoot. Vazquez is probably the best trading chip that we have in terms of risk/reward and how volatile closers can really be.

Marte is a good trading chip too, although I think his detractors are going to be in for a rude awakening with what life looks like without him. The Phillies are the obvious fit, but I do not like any of their prospects well enough to want to move Marte. Marte is a dominant CF with an almost unparalleled skillset across the league, outside of perhaps Cain, and he's going to look that much better on a team where he doesn't need to be the 1st or 2nd best guy in the offense all the time.

At the end of the day though, Huntington maneuvering for a bigger deal like this is just utterly depressing to me. I have the confidence that he can probably fix some current holes by nibbling around the edges, moving a guy like Cabrera, and give the team another shot to have everything work out perfectly, multiple guys play well at the same time, no injuries, etc. in 2020. But beyond that? He could tap slightly into the young core here and get 6-8 players back. If he gets the right mix, we're a division contender by this time next year. If he doesn't, we're a cellar team with Josh Bell on the block.

So I dunno, maybe rooting for the winning streak is the only sane option. I guess the "middle ground" position here to what I'm thinking out loud about is move Vazquez + Cabrera, Dickerson if anyone will have him, and perhaps Frazier, and then anoint Crick the new closer and let the rest of the bullpen guys see if they can figure it out, which has the side benefit of padding the L column to get a better pick. Then you hope to head into 2020 with a better bullpen and the pieces from the Vazquez deal, and if that's not going to work, you have Marte and Bell to think about moving next summer. But I think as tempting as it is to just say move Vazquez and Marte, I don't see the team emerging that gives you good value for Marte this summer.

I'll add a triple post to point out explicitly what I left only implied with my "unfortunately" response above: salivating over who we'd be able to get for Vazquez is almost exactly the same situation we were in when Cole was on the block. The Dodgers make perfect sense because getting one of their catchers + Stripling would make for immediate improvements at positions of need (my idea here not being that Diaz is bad, but that Diaz + Smith/Ruiz is a perfect combo in a world where you need two good catchers).

We lined up the Astros and Yankees in a similar fashion, and NH managed to get two ok supplementary pieces. In theory, Vazquez's value should be higher than Cole's was when we dealt him, by a significant amount, but I do not really trust NH to get the right 4 pieces in a deal.

And I guess there is potentially some logic to exploring a Marte trade, in the sense that Bryan Reynolds is probably best profiled as a CF, and so there'd be no better time to get him tons of playing time there than in a season totally lost to retooling. This needs something of a caveat because PNC's LF is like another CF, but the thing with Reynolds is, I'm not sure he has the power to be a corner OF longer term. Obviously we'll take the hitting, but we absolutely need to figure out how to get more power from LF, RF, and 3B. Hayes is all projection and now might have some kind of hand/wrist injury that can totally sap power.

So I'd say if we can find a blue chip option for Marte, it's maybe worth it. Let Reynolds play CF every day and make mistakes, let Polanco play every day to see if he can find the form he had last year and stay healthy. And then give whoever a look in LF. Hell, it would be a disaster, but even throw Will Craig out there and see if his bat will play in MLB.

I want Will Smith from LA. I think he's a legit MLB prospect at C. He's 24, ready for the show by all accounts and should make for a nice 1-2 punch with Diaz behind the dish.

I had a long write up proposing some deals last month and getting Smith and Gonsolin (for Vasquez) was what I proposed. Both are essentially MLB ready guys. Gonsolin has legit starting potential but I think he ends up as an 8th/9th inning guy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

To Importer:

I like both of those guys (Smith and Gonsolin), although I think I'd want a bit more as the starting point. Vazquez potentially has some concerns, but he's also among the most dominant 5 closers in the game and more importantly is locked down for 4 more years after this at an insane bargain, basically taking him through his prime. I'd try and hold the Dodgers over a barrel to get him, and get three guys who I think are nearly ready, immediate upgrades. My gut says they probably don't want to move Stripling because they want his flexibility and will eventually make him a starter, but Stripling, Gonsolin, Smith, and one more would be the kind of package I'd be aiming for.

Considering what Chapman was able to get, the Dodgers should be desperate enough to win now, and have the chips to do it. The only question might be whether they'd prefer to get Brad Hand or find a better fit there in terms of what they'd want to give up. Hell, with them wanting to improve their bullpen, maybe we could include Lyles and/or Liriano in order to maximize the specific top prospects we could get. Of course, Cleveland also has a bunch of options that they could include to sweeten the deal.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Bats are so much better now...we arent winning but thats great to see going forward. Newman is looking like he will be a solid player. Add him to Reynolds, Bell. If Moran can keep this up even better. Our IF is getting better and better and thats without Tucker, Hayes, Kramer, and Craig. OF will always have solid players ..now and coming up in a few years.

Once again this just comes down to injuries with our top pitchers and the young guys being forced into roles they weren't ready for.

Dont care about wins right now..if it happens and they go on a run great. If not..as long as each player continues to improve so we are much better off heading into next season....id love to see what we can get in return at the deadline. Us having these injuries could end up being what makes us a playoff team again next year and beyond. Last year set us back with that winning streak...this year possibly the opposite.

The thing they should know by now is never take any year for granted. We came into the year with a top rotation...and they all got hurt. The best two out longterm. But also a fine line...you dont make that Archer trade unless you know for sure your team has a great chance at winning it all.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Anyone else see what Casey Mize is up to? Video game numbers. Tigers have an ace on their hands with him I think.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Watch Williams come back and the Pirates make a run similar to the 10-game streak they had last season, hamstringing any prospective trades (again).

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Buccos leaking runs... again

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Watch Williams come back and the Pirates make a run similar to the 10-game streak they had last season, hamstringing any prospective trades (again).

Yeah, this is my fear as well. If we get a bit of luck, we're definitely capable of sweeping the Marlins, and the home stand doesn't exactly feature world beating teams. If we go on a little run, and then maybe surprise and win the Astros series or something, we'll be right back in contention for the division, probably 4 or 5 games out.

I don't really think there's a "danger" of it happening, though. We simply don't have enough pitching to get that many wins in a row. Musgrove and Archer are at best inconsistent, Keller is trying to find his footing, and the bullpen features a number of guys who at best might put two runners on and manage to have one clean inning if they get lucky. A good day for this pitching staff is giving up 3-4 runs. I feel pretty safe in saying that there's no chance we can win more than three games in a row, even when Williams is back. We're toast.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I guess I feel like Williams represents a huge shot in the arm and confidence booster. It could take the pressure off Musgrove and Archer to be perfect, hopefully improving their performance.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I actually wonder if the Braves wouldn't be an ideal landing spot for Marte. They've been very careful not to make an aggressive move, but they are out in front of the division and signed Keuchel. They have a future OF that seems all but lined up, but two of the guys aren't in the picture. Getting Marte would give them an elite CF, allow Acuna to go to LF, and I guess would see Reilly in a kind of platoon with Donaldson, which is where the idea runs aground a little bit.

But they have a plethora of young pitching, much of it already somewhat established in MLB or in the high minors.

 

[cookthebooks]

tim williams with a frank article on how the pirates are making the same dumb mistakes with keller they made with cole regarding pitch selection. his word is 'unexcusable'

 

[DanielPlainview]

How the f*** do you hit someone on an 0-2 pitch. Good grief, Dovy

 

[DanielPlainview]

tim williams with a frank article on how the pirates are making the same dumb mistakes with keller they made with cole regarding pitch selection. his word is 'unexcusable'

Yeah, I think it's apparent the pitching philosophy/staff needs a retooling.

 

[cookthebooks]

small market teams that are also painfully cheap have no ability to rest on their laurels. meanwhile nh and co are still taking victory laps for stuff that happened 5 years ago

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ray Searage should not be employed by this team through the weekend.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It really is insane. Keller is like a combination of Cole's aggressive fastball and Taillon's curveball, and while it's a good sign that we're trying to have him learn a slider, it's clearly the same stuff in terms of throwing the fastball low in the zone. It reminds me exactly of when Cole first broke on the scene, up to and including the games where he would get bad luck and give up a bunch of softly hit singles. It's never going to change while Searage is the coach. I think there are player development problems that go beyond him, but he's an obstacle to having good starting pitching unless the guy is a reclamation project who has the upside of a #3 starter.

That sequence getting to Moran unable to come through with a hit is like a microcosm of the entire team and franchise.

Right now, I'd say trade off Vazquez and then keep all of these hard throwing righties around – Hartlieb, Feliz, Holmes, Neverauskas. See if any of them can earn a role on this team beyond this year, and then reassess next year. A few of them can look very good for periods of time, and can dominate in AAA (this is especially true of Neverausakas), so maybe they just need more innings in MLB to establish themselves somewhat. With W/L basically not mattering, there's no better time to try and rebuild a bullpen. Vazquez is just going to go to waste, and while he figures to be around when the young core gets better, there's always a chance he regresses or gets hurt.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm excited to blow it up soon:

*Vazquez
*Archer
*Marte
*Dickerson
*Crick

Let's go get ourselves 5-6 top 100 prospects and embrace the suck.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I'm excited to blow it up soon:

*Vazquez
*Archer
*Marte
*Dickerson
*Crick

Let's go get ourselves 5-6 top 100 prospects and embrace the suck.

After July 5th, please. I do not want to see 3 blowouts

 

[cookthebooks]

the blow it up model stinks because who will be making the trades

 

[ChaosAgent]

the blow it up model stinks because who will be making the trades

I don't care. I can't stand the sight of this group together anymore. I am a diehard fan/follower but I've just completely tuned this season out. They are a historically bad team, like 110 loss bad, that got lucky at the start of the year.

And that person should be fired too.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't think this is too hot of a take, though maybe it is, but I'm not comfortable saying this team is so terrible. They are regressing hard currently because of injuries, but unless Williams comes back and gets immediately injured again and Taillon never returns at all, I think they'll still win 75 games.

Blowing it all up is probably going too far, and it's debatable if Dickerson will be able to fetch more than a glorified salary dump unless he catches fire. I'd be listening intently on Vazquez as well as Marte, and prioritizing moving Cabrera and maybe Lyles if he comes back healthy.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I don't care. I can't stand the sight of this group together anymore. I am a diehard fan/follower but I've just completely tuned this season out. They are a historically bad team, like 110 loss bad, that got lucky at the start of the year.

And that person should be fired too.

Actually they were just healthy to start the year. Pitching was great other than Rich Rod blowing games as well as Kela. The bats are now better than ever...this is all on injuries. Hurdle is still bad..and other things spiraled but all started due to injuries. This isnt a bad team.

Now just make the most of it and be sellers...improving the team even more. Would love to get close to a top 5 pick too.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don't care. I can't stand the sight of this group together anymore. I am a diehard fan/follower but I've just completely tuned this season out. They are a historically bad team, like 110 loss bad, that got lucky at the start of the year.

And that person should be fired too.

Yeah that is completely false

 

[ChaosAgent]

Actually they were just healthy to start the year. Pitching was great other than Rich Rod blowing games as well as Kela. The bats are now better than ever...this is all on injuries. Hurdle is still bad..and other things spiraled but all started due to injuries. This isnt a bad team.

Now just make the most of it and be sellers...improving the team even more. Would love to get close to a top 5 pick too.

If your team plays .250 baseball because of injuries to 2 starting pitchers, your team sucks.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

If your team plays .250 baseball because of injuries to 2 starting pitchers, your team sucks.

We've had way more than that...but no need to keep this going