OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: More of the same

[DanielPlainview]

I think Dickerson is about back. He's hammered the ball tonight

 

[DanielPlainview]

Williams has a 0.75 ERA since the ASB, including tonight. Awesome stuff. Keep it going

Edit: Got my dates mixed up (looked back to June instead of July). Still, going back two months to June 12, he's thrown a 2.92 ERA.

In my mind right now, Williams and Musgrove are #2a and #2b. The only thing holding him back is efficiency; he just needs to go 6+ more regularly.

 

[TNT87]

Can't ask for a better performance from Williams tonight. Bring home the victory bullpen.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Kela looks absolutely unstoppable as a Pirate. We're back to the days of something like Watson-Melancon-Hanrahan, but we also have Santana on top of that, and then RichRod. It would be such a boost if Boshers can work out for us, and I'm sure somebody like Brault, Holmes, etc can step up for that swingman spot next year in any case.

Williams was drawing lots of Locke comparisons when he struggled earlier this year, but I've never seen that. Obviously he has his ups and downs, but he's an outstanding backend guy to have around because he's so often good for 5-6 innings where you are firmly in the game, and if anything, he's developed a better ability to get big strikeouts when needed this year.

 

[bathroomSTAAL]

Raise it!

Nice to have a quick 2.5 hour game on the West Coast

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

This is what the Pirates do when Hurdle doesnt mess with their lineup.

4 out of 5 now..should be 5 straight wins.

If Hurdle has learned his lesson, this team has a great chance at making the playoffs.

Firing on all cylinders now. Those losses back in June were when we had Kingham/Brault/Feliz/Kontos/Nova/etc... in there.

The rotation has a great top 4 right now with Nova being the only concern. Pen is set with 5 solid relievers, the 2 long relievers being the concern. Which we need to fix to go with Nova's starts.

Holmes could be that guy( I dont blame last night results on him..hes better than that). And Brubaker/Eppler could do the job as well. Both have been great lately in Indy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I was able to skip through the first three innings last night because I started late, and then also just watched some other random stuff while deciding whether I'd give up, and that was still so brutal to take in. This game was the complete opposite: pristine pitching, defense, situational hitting. Hopefully a good exorcism and a momentum-builder.

After this start from Williams, you really wonder how different this series could have been given that Musgrove and Taillon would have been lined up. I don't expect this to be a popular opinion, but if Musgrove, Taillon, and Archer can all have solid performances, it makes the rest decision look a whole lot better. We'll see. Getting the series win tomorrow and then hopefully finding some way to get both the Twins games would be about as perfect a result of this road trip as you could wish.

One minor nitpick is that Marte looks pretty out of sorts. I hope Hurdle doesn't try to get crazy and have Frazier play for him or something - we still don't really have a backup CF with Meadows gone. Frazier definitely should play over Harrison tomorrow, although credit to Harrison for some good defense and a key walk to end up scoring the first run of the game. It's crazy that Williams has been involved in 7 shutouts this year.

 

[DanielPlainview]

It's questionable whether Kuhl pitches again this year, but if he does, I imagine he'll slide into the long relief role. If they make the post-season, one has to assume it would be Kingham and Kuhl in the pen.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Kuhl in long relief would be a nice boost for sure, but no news probably means he'll just be shut down. I guess maybe if we hear something in a week or two, he'd have a chance to do a rehab assignment, but otherwise the minor league season will be over. Guess for long relief, he could still just do some bullpens etc here, but it does seem like a long shot.

I think the signs with this team are more positive than negative, even though I remain pretty skeptical that a WC spot will play out, just because there are so many teams involved. But, in some measure thanks to the winning streak, we're still playing like the best team in baseball over the last several weeks, and while I think Hurdle (and Huntington - have to assume the rest day wasn't solely Hurdle's call) deserves as much blame as possible, you can't win every game. The foundation of the starting pitching is very good right now, and could stand to be even better if Archer steps it up a little more. Combined with a shutdown pen capable of 4 innings if/when necessary, and a good enough offense, and you have a recipe to keep winning.

It would be extremely impressive if we continued winning series throughout the month, and depending on how our luck plays out, also not insane to think the division race might become just as plausible as the WC race. It should be said that even if we do see a crazy gap closed with the Cubs before our series, and can pull within two games or something, they still have 9 vs the Mets, Reds, and Tigers right after that. But if they flub somewhat, and/or we keep pace, the remainder of their season isn't very easy at all, with just some series vs the Reds and White Sox.

Too much to still try and project, and all we can do is win our series' and hopefully pick up some more along the way (such as the Twins games). Tomorrow won't be easy, but Musgrove has probably looked better than the other impressive pitchers of late, so we need another one from him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Why Joe Musgrove's off days are now just as important as his starts

Decent read on Musgrove from a couple days ago. I wouldn't be too shocked if the rest day was above all for his benefit. I think the Pirates have wanted to be careful with him, although he's gone 7 innings a bunch, and I think the rest day was also genuinely for the others Coors starters, and that's about all the sense I can make of the nonsensical move. But with Musgrove, hopefully he keeps this up. He's someone it wouldn't be too shocking to see skipped once or twice to preserve innings, though with 74 now and 109 last year, he probably has 5-6 starts before he gets to that number, and he should be able to go over it, though I bet he will have some kind of limit, so maybe one of the September games will warrant another gamble. I'm still pretty convinced that he had a basically phantom injury to start the season, in the event that something like this happened (we were in the hunt for the playoffs and he was pitching well, but don't want him close to whatever innings cap in July if he starts the season in April).

 

[DanielPlainview]

Glasnow went again today: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 79 pitches

I know we're still in small sample size territory, but if I'm a Rays' fan, I'm extremely happy with what I've seen from him.

Today, he continued to pound the strike-zone with 4-seamers that ranged 97-100 and sliders, with an occasional curve. A few pitches did go a bit upstairs/downstairs.

He managed 2 hits and 2 walks despite a few 3-1, 3-0 counts (the ump today was not particularly sharp).

He looked unfazed by base-runners: in the 2nd he walked a batter then promptly got a double-play, Russell Martin began the 3rd with a lead-off double and never moved, and he got 2 Ks in the 4th after a lead-off single.

Watching him now, the most glaring deficiency is no longer his command but his handling of base-runners - the single in the 4th became a triple after two steals mostly due to his own lack of effectiveness.

The walk in the 2nd I mentioned:


There were a number of really bad no-strike calls that hurt his pitch count (not that his efficiency was particularly bad). A lot of foul balls also contributed as the Jays were seemingly praying and swinging much of the time to stay alive.

The Rays decided to see what Glasnow could do in the 6th in a 1-0 game. After he walked the first batter, they immediately went to the bullpen. The runner did score, though, after the reliever gave up back-to-back hits. I just thought it was interesting to see the quick hook since it contrasts with Hurdle's approach.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I tuned in for the fifth inning briefly and he does look outstanding. I think if he sticks at starter and becomes anything like a front-end starter, then the real discussion should center around the Pirates square peg, round hole approach, and not the trade really.

On the trade, I don't see anyone saying this, but I'd be very skeptical of the idea that you would find many people who would be upset with the deal if you had told them the day before the deadline that we could move Glasnow, Meadows, and a PTBNL for Archer. Now, if both of those two thrive, and the third player is someone like Newman or (who I'm thinking it will be, and really hoping to be wrong) Cruz, then you'll probably really need to see Archer return to dominant form in the NL, but that's really a bridge we cross next May/June and not now.

But if Glasnow has so quickly flipped a switch in the rotation, then a real evaluation of the upper level development needs to be done. I think there's generally some obfuscation when people try to bring Morton into it, because he became an entirely different pitcher once his velocity went up. Obviously the Cole situation was pretty predictable, but Glasnow even moreso was just bad in Pittsburgh, other than a fairly decent couple of stretches in the bullpen. I would still like to see how he finishes out the season and starts next season, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Searage and company.


Looks like Hurdle has started Frazier over Harrison, and we catch a break with Posey being on the bench. The big question is definitely going to be whether the offense can get something going vs Rodriguez, but hopefully Musgrove picks up where he left off.

 

[Coastal Kev]

How the Pirates dumped this kid after being a top 5 prospect in baseball is baffling. I suggested they hire Randy Johnson or a pitching coach that specialized in tall pitchers two years ago. As an organization, they seem to be very arrogant, OUR WAY OR gtfo!

Meadows, Glasnow and good PTBNL..... this trade can look like an all time worse within 2 years.

I truly want to love the Pirates again, but the combination of Nutting, Huntington and Hurdle makes it nearly impossible to do so.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Even if Archer returns to dominant form, I think this trade is going to end up being 1 young, elite SP; 1 young, very good outfielder; and 1 good middle infielder for a 30 year old pitcher who had one or two good seasons left. That'd be a big L for the Pirates.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If Glasnow is elite, then maybe, but prior and all throughout the year, Glasnow was a bust to most Pirates fans.

I'm a little unsure by what metric other than guesswork Archer has one or two good years left. It's not like guys just turn to salt once they are over 30 years old. I don't think a lot can be said right now other than the fact that we went after the type of piece we've never really been able to have, outside of maybe Cole or Taillon. It's going to take at least two or three years to really evaluate what the Rays have gotten, but I can totally live with the gamble.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I don't know of too many slender pitcher like Archer who are good into their mid 30s.

 

[Pengwins]

I've never been impressed with Musgrove or Archer

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Need a clean inning from Musgrove here - Rodriguez is starting to look like he's fading, but none of Dickerson, Marte, or Polanco look particularly inspiring today. That bad defensive play by Bell which costed us the third run might loom pretty large.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Sloppy defense, bad luck, and about half the at-bats not being very good are what will make this a loss today. Splitting this series is a pretty big setback, especially with a loss like this and a game we just totally gave away. Now the Minnesota games are must-wins, as we hope to continue to eek our way around 3/4 back in the race.

In particular, Bell's bumble, and then Mercer not catching that ball for a stolen base are killer. Otherwise it's 2-1 and we just need a couple breaks or a mistake to be right back in it. Three runs in two innings will be tough, but the Giants bullpen is far from perfect.

 

[DanielPlainview]

About done with Mercer as the regular at SS. Having ++ defense at SS is pretty huge and the gap at the plate between him and Hechavarria isn't so great that it demands he start.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, he had some key hits recently, but the defense has taken a nose dive. At minimum, we should be seeing a quasi-platoon. Let's get Mercer some of that rest, too.

This is shaping up to be disappointing, but I'll definitely take one more crack at Giants pitching. Rodriguez was dominant today. The bottom of the order looked a bit decent at times vs him, but mostly he was just executing his pitches extremely well. Musgrove did a solid job. He basically gave up 4 or 5 lucky hits and didn't get consistent defense behind him. Gotta find a way to steal this, it would be huge.

 

[DanielPlainview]

The split sucks. Especially with what went down Friday night.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, a bad loss, one we probably couldn't afford, although still not devastating. We pretty much need to win all these series vs the Cubs, Braves, and Brewers, and that would have been true even if we had won today. Even though Musgrove looked pretty sharp again, the Friday decision still looms as disastrous. If we can take the two in Minnesota, it's still a fine road trip at 6-3, but easier said than done when one of the pitchers is Archer.

Hopefully the good starting pitching continues, as that's the foundation for whatever success we'll have in the final 6/7 weeks. We just got outplayed today all around, and this was definitely a do or die for the Giants.

 

[AverageJoeFan]

Cubs, Atlanta, and the Brewers. I think this next stretch of 10 gems or so really define the rest of the season.

Right now, 5 games out of the last WC spot, I think. More daunting are the numbers of teams in between and the quality of those teams minus let's say the Rockies.

I am never one to judge baseball trades, but so far that hasn't gone quite to plan.

I really think the Pirates are not in a much different place than they have been in the past several years. With an exception or two of course. They still can't begin to compete with some of the teams in the top echelon. Whomever I could blame, in the end it's actually gone a wee bit better so far this year than I thought it would. If they finish at .500 I think that is as much as I could hope for.

1979 certainly does seem like a lifetime ago.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's going to be an extremely tall order to catch up in the WC race. I think we're probably lucky in some ways that we have these games vs our direct opponents, especially having 6 vs Atlanta, since they have several games in hand (they have a double-header today vs the Marlins, and I'm not sure who their other games are against, but that doesn't bode well for catching up).

I think if you just look at the WC standings, the last 10 column says it all. The Cards beat us in an extremely pivotal series where they pulled ahead, and now they are right on the cusp of the WC race, while we're still steps behind. A big difference? The Cards are 8-2 in their last 10 games, while everybody else in the league is basically 5-5 or 4-6 or 6-4.

We just have to stack wins and hope for the best. If we win a bunch of series, maybe we'll be right around 2 games back in early September, and can shave off another game or two by sweeping the Marlins or Reds. I don't think it's likely to happen, but continuing to get good starting pitching will be the foundation for it to happen if it will. And I think looking ahead, getting good starting pitching will be a key to success next year. This has been such a wild season, and we played so poorly for so long that it took a gigantic winning streak to even keep us on the verge of relevant. There are so many points where you can look back and ask whether a 10 game stretch could have gone differently, and had us with a better fighting chance in these final weeks.

Looking at the team on paper, I think the prognosis going into next year is still that we're a fringe WC team. A lot of the specific questions remain the same, and it's definitely a question for the winter, but there still have been some good developments this year, both in terms of acquiring Archer/Kela and in terms of player development.