OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona

[DJ Spinoza]

Not a shocker - it seemed like he became plan B when Nava was a bit banged up, and likely came here because of a chance to make the roster, which is pretty much gone now with Dickerson. I suspect that the final spot may end up coming down to Brentz and Nava. Luplow should be getting at-bats in AAA still. Maybe Osuna works into the mix too, but Brentz seems to stand out in terms of power, so I'd give the edge to him before really seeing any relatively meaningless results.

Nava seems like a fine depth/bench player to have, but none of the tools make him particularly interesting, and with already having Frazier as a good hitting LH bat on the bench, it makes sense to have a righty for spelling Polanco and Dickerson.

Nothing too much of note today, other than Meadows with 2 doubles, a single, and a walk. Good to see Eppler put up a couple of clean innings vs. MLB hitters: just a hit and 3 Ks in two innings. He's someone who could end up with a slightly higher chance to be an injury fill-in if you have Glasnow and Brault in the bullpen. Presumably you could just stretch those guys out if one is a long relief guy in MLB, but it will also be nice to have Eppler and Kingham as viable options in AAA.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

A couple clips here:

 

[Brandinho]

Nava seems like a fine depth/bench player to have, but none of the tools make him particularly interesting, and with already having Frazier as a good hitting LH bat on the bench, it makes sense to have a righty for spelling Polanco and Dickerson.

A healthy Nava is a better player than Corey Dickerson. The problem is that Nava's 35, has chronic back issues and doesn't even have a full season's worth of at-bats in the last 3 years combined. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't make the team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

A healthy Nava is a better player than Corey Dickerson. The problem is that Nava's 35, has chronic back issues and doesn't even have a full season's worth of at-bats in the last 3 years combined. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't make the team.

I think it could go either way. He'd be useful as a part-time kind of guy, but I think if anyone stands out in camp, he's likely not to make it for the reasons you outline. I like the idea of Brentz, if he shows good things in camp. If the swing change carries over, he keeps the pressure on the other OFs for playing time, and you probably get more OF production overall.

I don't have any particular attachment to Osuna or Luplow, though I do think it's probably more useful for Luplow to get regular at-bats in AAA.

 

[Brandinho]

I think it could go either way. He'd be useful as a part-time kind of guy, but I think if anyone stands out in camp, he's likely not to make it for the reasons you outline. I like the idea of Brentz, if he shows good things in camp. If the swing change carries over, he keeps the pressure on the other OFs for playing time, and you probably get more OF production overall.

I don't have any particular attachment to Osuna or Luplow, though I do think it's probably more useful for Luplow to get regular at-bats in AAA.

It's just a shame that Osuna isn't more fleet of foot. I like his bat and I love his arm, but he just doesn't have the mobility to be a decent outfielder and you lose his arm at first.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Pirates A.M.: Kevin Siegrist eager to put on Pirates jersey.

I like this deal lot.

 

[Asuna]

huntington just wanted the fans to sweat a bit before making those championship moves!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I mean it's not a huge deal, but after Dickerson becoming available and the Pirates getting him, and then getting Siegrist on a minor league deal, I'm feeling like this is Christmas. We'll see if he can put things back together - if so, he has some nice upside, especially since we have the Kontos-Rivero tandem already in place for this and next year.

The bullpen will now be the most interesting thing to follow over the next few weeks. I wonder a little bit if it will make sense to try going with an extra bullpen arm instead of an extra bench bat. Perhaps not immediately, since a call-up can always happen after the first few weeks. With Musgrove named as the fifth starter, here's the group of bullpen options:

Rivero
Kontos
Feliz
Crick
Schugel
Nerversaukas
Santana
Smoker
Leathersich
Milbraith
Glasnow
Brault
Siegrist
Smoker

I'd say that the first three are likely locks, with the rest of the spots open in camp. Maybe that gives Feliz a little too much guarantee, since he must have options left, but he pitched a good amount of games last year and I figure he's in the mix.

That means four guys on that list will compose the last spots, or five if we decide to carry an extra arm, which I prefer even as I'd be intrigued to see what Brentz brought off the bench. I'd like to see Schugel in there (out of options I think), and probably only one of Glasnow or Brault - I'm thinking the former. Maybe things change if Brault makes it, but otherwise you have to assume one spot may go to Leathersich, Smoker, or Siegrist, which leaves several guys vying for a final spot. If it were just a video game where you had the best versons of everybody, my stab at what I like is Rivero, Kontos, Feliz, Schugel, Neversaukas, Glasnow, Milbraith, Siegrist.

Obviously, open competition is the best way to sort the bullpen picture out, but I think the approach I might take if I were the Pirates was to see who stands out, and if you have several options and one includes Milbraith, then take an extra pitcher to start the year unless Brentz or Osuna or somebody has had a monster spring.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Have had the game on in the background today. It seemed like Kingham turned in two nice innings, some Ks, fastball was 94, maybe even touching 95 once. Holmes started ok but had control trouble.

Feliz just came in for his inning and struck out the side. A bunch of swinging strikes, fastball was already up at 96. In those meaningless coincidences that spring training can produce, two of the three guys Feliz struck out were Andujar and Frazier.

 

[TNT87]

I really hope Meadows can shake the injury bug this season.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Greg just cranked a dinger over the boardwalk. Most of the starters are basically out of the game or on their way out at this point for both teams, but I'm going to keep it on to hear Crick later in the game (ideally next inning, because I need to get some shit done today...).

Edit: Crick sitting at 93, got two quick outs and then gave up a gap shot to Florial that went for a triple, but he strands him by getting the next out. Block is only occasionally mentioning how fast the pitchers are throwing - I think he has said it once or twice for every different pitcher, so hard to get too much of a handle, plus it's early in spring.

I imagine Crick probably has an inside track for one of the bullpen spots, which basically means that three spots are up for grabs in spring training. Seems like some thing both Brault and Glasnow should be in the pen, and I don't disagree with the idea, but with several other viable options kicking around, I'd be hesitant. Schugel is someone who really needs to show something this spring. I like him, but he hasn't found consistency, and has already gone unclaimed, so I doubt he gets handed anything with so many people competing.

I like the idea of Brault and Glasnow more if we are going to go with a bigger bullpen, and less so with the traditional layout. If both have great springs, sure, but otherwise I'd carry one of them and have the other as immediate depth. It's a tough situation because Glasnow will essentially just be rotting in AAA, and Brault has performed well without being given too much of a shot, and shown some decent things in long relief already.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Quick clip of Polanco's HR here, not the best of views but you can definitely see the swing he put on it, which looks nothing like the Polanco we saw last year.

 

[Brandinho]

I like the Siegrist signing. NH has generally done a good job of finding solid relievers for cheap (the problem seems to be when he spends money on free agents) and he's still only 28 so there might be something there if he's healthy.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Glasnow is starting today's game, FYI. Haven't seen a lineup but looks like lots of regulars again... more curious about the pitchers and their performance/velocity at this stage. Musgrove is throwing a bullpen today, so maybe we'll get an update on him later.

On the right kind of contract, I think I'd drift into the "please sign Alex Cobb" camp. I'd be more gung ho about the injury risk if his K rate was better. I think he'd improve in several ways by moving to the NL, and have a strong likelihood of being worth something like 12-13 million a year, especially if he only ends up with a three year term. But the combination of Ks, injuries, and also this business about largely losing the feel on his best pitch last year make it a more opaque option, as utopian as it is in any case.

I hadn't realized that the rule for compensation if you received revenue sharing was that you lose your third highest pick. Since we basically end up in the competitive balance round every year, I guess that always means a second round pick, but that's not a terrible price to pay if you are going to add a 3+ WAR guy to your lineup. Still, with all of the internal options and the generally risk-averse Huntington, there's no way it happens. But the market could essentially be presenting an option for boosting the current configuration a little bit more, and possibly by late next season, you'd have a mix of Taillon, Cobb, Keller, and Musgrove, which makes Nova/Kuhl/Williams/Glasnow/Brault a lot better of a fifth starter option.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I listened to the early parts of the game off and on - the noteworthy things are Kramer's HR, Schugel seemingly having a shoulder issue (and his velocity seemed fairly low, even for him), Meadows with a bases loaded triple, and Glasnow being somewhat middling. His stat line is actually a bit deceptive. He had some trouble in his second inning, giving up a long HR to Castellanos, and then having things slip a bit when a high bloop fell on the line for a double. Hard to say much without seeing things, but the signs I'm looking for were mostly positive from him. He was getting ahead in counts and throwing gas - sitting 97-98, with several 100 mph fastballs. Biertempfel said he threw a lot of changeups in the second inning and they were rusty. Based on Block and Walk, his curveball sounded like it was fairly on target, so I'd say those are strong things to build on as a bullpen possibility.

With the Twins grabbing Morrison, you have to wonder which teams out there are even suitors for Arrieta and Cobb at this point. I guess Philadelphia has been connected to Arrieta, but it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense in terms of Arrieta maybe giving you some value now, and being a huge risk at the end of a longer contract.

It's possible that one or both of them might need to hang on for several weeks through spring training to see if somebody goes down to injury, but it's hard to see how holding out into the season would benefit either.

 

[Brandinho]

Glasnow is starting today's game, FYI. Haven't seen a lineup but looks like lots of regulars again... more curious about the pitchers and their performance/velocity at this stage. Musgrove is throwing a bullpen today, so maybe we'll get an update on him later.

On the right kind of contract, I think I'd drift into the "please sign Alex Cobb" camp. I'd be more gung ho about the injury risk if his K rate was better. I think he'd improve in several ways by moving to the NL, and have a strong likelihood of being worth something like 12-13 million a year, especially if he only ends up with a three year term. But the combination of Ks, injuries, and also this business about largely losing the feel on his best pitch last year make it a more opaque option, as utopian as it is in any case.

I hadn't realized that the rule for compensation if you received revenue sharing was that you lose your third highest pick. Since we basically end up in the competitive balance round every year, I guess that always means a second round pick, but that's not a terrible price to pay if you are going to add a 3+ WAR guy to your lineup. Still, with all of the internal options and the generally risk-averse Huntington, there's no way it happens. But the market could essentially be presenting an option for boosting the current configuration a little bit more, and possibly by late next season, you'd have a mix of Taillon, Cobb, Keller, and Musgrove, which makes Nova/Kuhl/Williams/Glasnow/Brault a lot better of a fifth starter option.

I'd think that $12-13 million is probably the low end of what Cobb will get. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets something like 4/60.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think that's fair, but I'm just wondering who pays him that? 4/60 is a bit too steep of a risk, but 12-13 million in a weak market, basically what Liriano got, is a little too bargain friendly to not be intrigued by... The Yankees seem like they are out of the mix even for 13 or so million, because they want some flexibility around the deadline.

The Pirates could basically afford that kind of contract, and Cervelli and Nova both come off the books after 2019. Maybe even something like some escalators for IP and a vesting option would be fine. I don't think it'd move the needle all that much, but if we're essentially trying to tread water and go for a WC spot, a rotation led by Taillon and Cobb is at least palatable, and you hope Musgrove works his way into the mix, and then by 2019 Keller.

Simply because of the quantity of possible options, I doubt it happens, but if the cheap end of the price is right, it's a move that would fit in terms of value. The money is not really spendable anywhere else other than Bob's pockets.

 

[Brandinho]

I think that's fair, but I'm just wondering who pays him that? 4/60 is a bit too steep of a risk, but 12-13 million in a weak market, basically what Liriano got, is a little too bargain friendly to not be intrigued by... The Yankees seem like they are out of the mix even for 13 or so million, because they want some flexibility around the deadline.

The Pirates could basically afford that kind of contract, and Cervelli and Nova both come off the books after 2019. Maybe even something like some escalators for IP and a vesting option would be fine. I don't think it'd move the needle all that much, but if we're essentially trying to tread water and go for a WC spot, a rotation led by Taillon and Cobb is at least palatable, and you hope Musgrove works his way into the mix, and then by 2019 Keller.

Simply because of the quantity of possible options, I doubt it happens, but if the cheap end of the price is right, it's a move that would fit in terms of value. The money is not really spendable anywhere else other than Bob's pockets.

I'm not sure who, but I'd imagine some team will look at his second half performance and think he's back on track. Even with a pretty underwhelming first half (which is understandable given that he was returning from injury), he put up 2.4 WAR. With a single WAR valued at roughly $10m, $12m seems really cheap to me. You don't even need the 2015 version of Cobb to make 4/60 a reasonable contract, he just has to be a ~2 WAR guy and boom, you've got surplus value.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Came across this picture of Clint in an article:

and immediately thought of:

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In case anyone hasn't noticed, the pbcbreakdown twitter account is posting short highlights from every spring training game, it seems. Looks like Nova got hit a bit today (he's candidate #1 for a scapegoat if they get off to a bad start, IMO, and generally someone to be slightly worried about, though I'll say that if Musgrove can fill the role of a #3 a bit, Nova being so-so will be more tolerable as long as he eats innings and gives them a chance to win). Taillon pitched two clean innings and got 3 Ks.

Will likely be more of the same for a while. The only spots that even seem up for grabs are the 5th bench spot and maybe 2-3 bullpen jobs. The first actually televised game is Sunday, if you have MLB TV.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I suspect that the actual argument is on the Pirates side of things here, but this is basically a good thing from the fan perspective, since continued negative PR and pressure towards ownership is better than nothing at all. Maybe it will slightly tip the balance when the team is competitive again.

It's really a separate point, but if you look at how the roster is currently composed, the MLB payroll will be in a much better situation if the team returns to WC-level performance this year or next than it was in the earlier iterations. This puts the cart before the horse a little bit, but this is even moreso the case if you have the 1B and 3B spots locked down.

The obvious problem is still kinda threefold: 1) whether the free agents coincide with the team's needs, 2) whether the Pirates will even take the risk, and 3) assuming both those huge things, why any free agent would sign here.

Speculatively, the one area that still will probably present a problem is front line starting pitching. The market next year isn't even that great - it might just be Price and Keuchel, bracketing Kershaw.

Looking into things a bit more kinda firms up the idea that now might be the time to strike with a guy like Cobb, even if you spend more than you're comfortable with. We're always going to be caught in this game is cheapness and risk, but Huntington has still assembled a fringe playoff team, and at the end of the day, it's difficult to swallow that a 79 million payroll is going for it. Snagging Cobb and getting the payroll back up to where it was a few years ago is at least a move in a more competitive direction, and one that doesn't seem like it will handicap anything else according to their own standards.

I have no doubts that revenue sharing money has been invested in ways largely unseen by the fans, but I also find it hard to square with the discrepancy in payroll. Cutch and Cole were baseball trades which also cleared payroll in the immediate term. When you toss in losing Kang's salary, there's really just no way to believe that there isn't room to meet Cobb's demands, even if it's 4 years, 80 million. It's a totally viable argument that that's too risky of a move, but I guess the point that I always come back to with the team is that so much is bound up in similar risk and contingency, and they've never shown any breaks from a conservative vision that has made them a viably average NL team and nothing more.

 

[AverageJoeFan]

Report: Players' union files grievance against Pirates, three others regarding revenue sharing

 

[Winger for Hire]