OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: The Condemned of Altoona

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Empoleon8771

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Dickerson is a really intriguing move, I actually like the Pirates outfield for this year. Marte, Polanco and Dickerson is a pretty solid group and they have them for I think 2 seasons. It's an interesting move for sure, I like it a lot.

What are some modest projections if he takes the everyday job? .270 AVG/25 HR/70 RBI?

Baseball reference has him projected at a .268 batting average with 25 HRs and 66 RBIs. So you're pretty much right on the money. Although he does bat left and PNC seems like a friendly ballpark for left handed power hitters, so maybe his HR projection increases a little bit.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Gotta take the sanguine approach: J-Hay is going to help him develop an intangible sense for swinging at bad balls and making improbable things happen more often.

I stand by my take that Moran and Polanco are probably the two key factors for the offense, but with this move in place, both Marte and J-Hay become important as table-setters. If the former two guys produce with some power, then this lineup all of a sudden has enough power to make up for some things. I'm not sure how to deploy things.
 

Winger for Hire

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Dec 9, 2013
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Gotta take the sanguine approach: J-Hay is going to help him develop an intangible sense for swinging at bad balls and making improbable things happen more often.

I stand by my take that Moran and Polanco are probably the two key factors for the offense, but with this move in place, both Marte and J-Hay become important as table-setters. If the former two guys produce with some power, then this lineup all of a sudden has enough power to make up for some things. I'm not sure how to deploy things.

What scares me now is that their best leadoff hitter is now out of a job and I really hate Harrison or Marte leading off. Harrison, to me, fits more into the 6/7 and Marte is a 2 on this team.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Need to set the record straight, and then I'm done with this exchange. I was wrong in my discussion of Cabrera vs. Gomez, sloppily projecting Melky as a tier above him without carefully looking into it.

Then, you insult me because I pointed out that it is flat out wrong to say Melky is on a higher plane than Gomez. It is clear you can't seperate your dislike of Gomez from his performance.

I'm unsure which aspects of my posts you interpreted as insults, but you are absolutely correct that I am wrong to claim Melky is better than Gomez. I had been operating under the assumption that Cabrera's 2017 was better than the numbers say.

Moreover, I was being neither consistent nor clear in what I was trying to say. Putting Cabrera and Gonzalez as a tier above Dyson Gomez et all is probably indefensible based on anything other than name brand recognition. Part of Gomez's brand is that he's an asshole, but in my mind we've long passed the Brewers version of Gomez. In any case, whichever of that crew one prefers probably comes down to both personal preference and what needs you want to see a team address. I don't particularly like Gomez on those fronts for the Pirates, and now this whole thing is moot with Dickerson.

Dickerson probably also belongs around the same tier, but the exception I'd make for him is that he's much more likely to bring his power with him, and maybe then some, in PNC Park. I like the intrigue of Gonzalez, but I think out of all of the options, Dickerson is most appealing to me on a speculative level, and we got to shed Hudson's roster spot.
 
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cookthebooks

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hopefully he plays well and they trade him for some interesting prospects at the deadline since luplow is a better option
 

DJ Spinoza

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ZiPS has Dickerson as a 2 WAR player with .325 wOBA, 104 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ in Tampa, I can't see the move to Pittsburgh moving the needle too much either way.

Yeah, I think the only way he really moves the needle is that he's an everyday MLB player. He's probably more around the 2016 version than the first half of last year, where he was almost unstoppable.

I still love this trade for both subtracting Hudson, which makes more room for longer-term upside guys in the pen, and for adding power to the lineup. Now suddenly we have a whole mix of players capable of 15-20 HRs, and ideally you get more than that from Dickerson and Bell.
 

Empoleon8771

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Looking at this team, I'm actually not as down on it as it seems like other people are. Losing Cole probably doesn't hurt because Cole wasn't good last year, I think Musgrove will likely be able to put up similar results to Cole. Dickerson is projected to have almost the same exact season as McCutchen is supposed to have according to Baseball Reference, both have them at a .268 batting average with Dickerson having 25 HRs to McCutchen's 23. This team can be better than what it was last year I think, it just depends on how their younger players progress and how the new guys do.
 

Big McLargehuge

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May 9, 2002
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Oh yeah, I don't think this team will be an abject disaster at all, if a couple things go right .500 may even be a possibility.

But potentially flirting with .500 is nowhere near where this franchise should be in 2018 given the trajectory we were on.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I don't have the drive to really search, but has anyone heard anything about Musgrove's shoulder?

I remember reading it was just precautionary, sounded like nothing to worry about.

I'm pretty sure Dickerson always hit pretty high in the order with the Rays, but projecting how to array the lineup is pretty difficult. Who knows how Hurdle will try and go about it, but it seems like the best strategy might just be to see what kind of combination of things works, and adjust based on who is on what kind of streak. Here's a stab at Opening Day:

Marte CF
Dickerson LF
Harrison 2B
Bell 1B
Cervelli C
Polanco RF
Moran 3B
Mercer SS
Taillon SP

Would rather see Harrison down in the order, but I think he'll be in the top half as a go-to vet for Hurdle. Maybe things look different if Polanco or Moran really tears it up in spring training, but that's my best attempt to read Hurdle's mind. With the speed, I think Marte is likely to be the leadoff. The lineup is really LH heavy, especially with Frazier probably being the first bat off the bench. Possibly gives an edge to Brentz, Luplow, or Osuna as the final bench spot, and now Nava et al being on minor league deals takes on a different character (actual depth in case of injury!).

I guess ideally, if Polanco returns to form, you might want him higher up, but stealing bases is probably the last piece of the puzzle I'd try to get working for him.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Harrison in the 3 spot is giving me Tike Redman flashbacks...

Yeah... it's not an ideal situation unless Harrison plays like he has in short bursts. Ideally Hurdle will do a fair amount of tinkering, because outside of Marte at leadoff or second, and maybe Bell at cleanup, the rest seem kind of interchangeable. I think Frazier will get a fair share of at-bats, and S-Rod sometimes too (have to imagine he's a defensive replacement a lot late in games if we are winning, either for Moran or Dickerson), but I do think those 8 are clearcut "starters" on paper.

I think they are a legitimate 79-82 win team on paper, and more than that if they get some luck. So basically a fringe WC team. Things are a lot more difficult in that regard if the NL West teams are mostly for real and the Mets stay healthy. Toss out the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals as division winners: we're within striking distance of the other competitive teams, but at the lower end on paper. Need health, luck, and not doing particularly poorly in specific ways (like getting housed by the Brewers and/or Reds, and/or Cubs and/or NL West and/or playing down to all the teams on paper legitimately below them... so basically not repeating the kinds of mistakes we always repeat).
 

PensandCaps

Beddy Tlueger
May 22, 2015
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Dickerson had a good year last year. Why'd he go so cheap?

Damn his 2014 season was insanely good....

Looks to be a 260./320./800. Guy.
 

PensandCaps

Beddy Tlueger
May 22, 2015
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I'd try to get Fraizer in the lineup everyday. He's a hit machine. No power though, but a solid 2 hole option. Sit Polanco if you have to.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I could see that kind of lineup happening sometimes, possibly with Harrison as the 3B. In addition, getting Polanco more regular rest would not be a bad idea. A bench composed of Frazier, Freese, Rodriguez, and Brentz/Nava/Saunders/Luplow/Osuna has the potential to be pretty decent.

At the end of the day, Dickerson is relieving to me because he firms up the situation that already exists a bit more. Tons of what ifs/possibilities remain, but offensively it's more about Polanco/Moran and the right combinations. As for the rotation, if Kuhl and Williams repeat, that will firm up the floor for the team overall, and if anything, Hudson being out of the picture opens up more of a chance to wield the pen as a weapon. It's really just a nice win-win from the perspective of the corner this team has backed itself into.

Frankly, I'm not really sure there's a big difference between Cutch and Dickerson, production-wise, at this point, and the same basically goes for their defense (Cutch has somewhat of an edge, assuming he doesn't start tapering off, but the difference isn't very big). Unless Polanco or Marte totally collapse or something, then as a team, they have to be better than what we saw overall last year. The question is really what potential there is for some X-factor to catapult them into the WC race more legitimately. I've repeated Polanco and Moran ad nauseam for weeks, but here I think it's more Musgrove/Glasnow. If one emerges as an upper half of the rotation starter, then the team is a good bit more formidable.

I don't really think any of the top prospects can be counted on in this regard: Keller has only thrown like 40 AA innings, Tucker is still a bit away, Meadows needs to show he can be healthy and produce some in AAA, etc. Maybe Newman is an outside shot to rebound some and make some noise, but I think Musgrove/Glasnow are really the only possible fits.

Further, if I had to guess, I imagine that this is the kind of thing Huntington will say when he's asked: we've re-arranged, gotten a bunch of control, are confident in our young guys, and have a good amount of flexibility to make adjustments at the trade deadline. The latter line is definitely true, even though they basically will never do that.

I'm also not really sure I'd even want to venture back into the market, hypothetically speaking. Wouldn't touch Lance Lynn with a 10 foot pole, and Cobb is a little iffy for me to want to lose a pick for. The only names hovering out there I think I'd like to see are Cahill and Siegrist, on minor league deals.
 
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Brandinho

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Aug 28, 2005
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Tristan Gray's actually kind of interesting and Dickerson is going to be an unmitigated disaster in left, but if he can maintain his offensive production then it's not a bad move. At least it's a genuine attempt to improve.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I suppose it's a good thing he didn't miss much of spring training with us then, seeing as how that's the only pitch we allow our starters to throw.

In all seriousness, I do think Dickerson's got enough of a track record as a good hitter that it's reasonable to expect him to make adjustments. His floor seems like a somewhat streaky, mediocre defending everyday OF with pop, which is totally an upgrade on thoughts and prayers.

Eppler is starting in tomorrow's game, but if memory serves, we are at least five or six days from pitchers actually stretching out to 3-4 innings?
 
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