OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Tanking underway

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JimmyTwoTimes

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Polanco is just as bad (he's f***ing batting .071), and he's another one I never understood the hype on. Always looked awkward as hell moving. He was so long and his swing suffered because of it. And his baseball IQ was pathetic. There were blowhards in the Pitt media that put him in the same sentence as Bonds. Yawn.

Bell wouldn't have given you a huge haul but had you moved him last year mid season I think you'd have at least brought back 1 top 5 prospect from a team + more. Years of control, switch hitter, big power, still young. Especially the AL his value would have been fairly high IMO.

Not dealing Vasquez is an epic failure for obvious reasons.

I want to see what the leadership does with an actual entire off season and spring training (hopefully) in 2021 to iron out the road map. I knew this team would be bad, but they are downright atrocious. We should end up with the worst record comfortably. The only real question is do we get f***ed by Manfred and MLB. If they go to a lottery system for a one off, we could end up drafting 25th....

Only way they dont go with lottery is if Redsox finish with worst record. So we may have to settle with rooting for 2nd overall. Jack Leiter would be fine consolation over us ending up getting screwed in the lottery.
 
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Winger for Hire

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Asking for a friend
 
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DJ Spinoza

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RP market might be taking shape, as the Phillies pick up Workman and Hembree. Hard to ballpark the return for me, because Pivetta is a buy-low guy who could still really pop up. The prospect looks like depth and the Red Sox also sent most of the money to cover the deal, which makes me suspect that Pivetta's value was pretty high.

The Padres are the obvious team to keep an eye on. Yates is hurt and now Pomeranz is down. They have an incredibly deep system, so lots of options if they wanna take a stab at it. A name I've seen thrown around is Anderson Espinoza – electric, high risk arm who Cherington actually signed when he was with Boston, but he has had two TJS. FG has him as potential front-line starter but high leverage reliever seems more possible in the near future at least. I would be glad to shoot a shot at a star with a rental trade in this wonky season.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Keone Kela, thank you for your sacrifice on the Road to Rocker. While getting injured denies us some random 40 FV prospect, it does open up a spot to bring back Del Pozo and forestall any momentum that the offense might get after tonight.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Although I am increasingly anti-BC, I do think we have some useful supplementary players in the group. What's unclear is where we'll get the top-end talent as well as depth necessary to make even a serious WC run. He has his work cut out for him, and look, say what you will about NH, but it's ultimately Nutting who is holding the cards. NH looking somewhat vindicated with Gonzalez showing some upside as a super utility/defensive wiz with not the worst bat.

One thing in light of today: Tucker's performance should absolutely earn him another start tomorrow. I suspect he may play over Polanco again which is fine, but I'd like to see him get a game at SS.
 

DJ Spinoza

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This bullpen stuff is really disastrous. Not only are our top 4 guys all hurt now, depending on how bad/what's happening with Kela, but more importantly, trading bullpen pieces could have been one way to really kick start some more talent into the organization.

Who knows what the actual value will end up being, but at minimum it seems plausible to think that there could be some serious bidding for bullpen pieces this year. The word coming out is that in addition to the Phillies, some other teams who could see themselves competing this year (including the Marlins for example) are looking for bullpen help. And teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are expected not to stay quiet.

If we had even just half of healthy and productive Kela, Crick, Santana, and Burdi, we might be able to get some decent pieces in return. I guess now all we can hope is that the Kela removal was extreme precaution and he'll pitch tomorrow and be fine or something, but him grabbing his forearm is the biggest red flag there is. When you couple it with a slight touch of wildness and his history of injuries, it's difficult to get excited. I'd like to see what Cherington could do with him reasonable healthy, but I doubt it's in the cards.

RichRod is someone who could interest teams, as after a rocky start, he has been quietly very good again, but he gave up a HR last night. Maybe the only hope for something half decent is if he steps into the picture and strings together another 3 or 4 really good appearances soon. I can't really see any teams being interested in anyone else, although of course you can't really rule out the possibility that a team would want a guy like Kuhl, Brault, etc., for multi-inning relief. Cherington has to be open to all possibilities and craft a way forward despite the injuries.

My view is that we should try and sign Kuhl to an extension, and I also think Brault is a very useful backend starter + swingman type, but at some point you have to stare down the question of whether you can continue to retool and rebuild through the 2021 season with possible light coming in 2022, or if you need to full-blown tear things down and keep assessing, which concretely I think means being open to any and every possibility right now in order to get the best talent that you can. With all the injuries and covid weirdness, I don't really think rash decisions should be made, but any realistic assessment of competitiveness in 2022 also has to include fairly increased spending. I think taking some measured gambles to lock in mid-t0-backend starters like Kuhl or Brault would not be the worst idea; it's not like either is going to cost a lot, but just to spin out something concrete and end this rant, if the Yankees came knocking with Andujar or Frazier for Kuhl, I think you might have to take them up on it, and as I have been saying on a couple of occasions, I am reasonably high on Kuhl.
 

bigdaddyk88

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Kela Moran Lock Dyson Holland and Frazier all should be flipped by September 1st maybe wait until December on Moran. We need pitchers and catchers. Come September 1st Cruz is everyday RF Tucker everyday SS Hayes 3rd Craig 1St. Play Martin or whoever in CF.
Offseason starts with signing one of Stroman ordoizzi Paxton. Bringing back archer cheap and hoping Jameson can finish the season and extend Musgrove.
 

The Great Mighty Poo

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Kela Moran Lock Dyson Holland and Frazier all should be flipped by September 1st maybe wait until December on Moran. We need pitchers and catchers. Come September 1st Cruz is everyday RF Tucker everyday SS Hayes 3rd Craig 1St. Play Martin or whoever in CF.
Offseason starts with signing one of Stroman ordoizzi Paxton. Bringing back archer cheap and hoping Jameson can finish the season and extend Musgrove.

Archer can go f*** off to a bayside property in Dont give a f*** bay.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I have long not been a proponent of a full-blown rebuild, largely because I think in the end it's much easier said than really done. I have gradually moved further and further towards a pretty skeptical position on Cherington, due largely to the complete wasting away of Hayes and even Oliva at this point, but if his strategy really is a kind of patient, retool/rebuild, I think there's still some reason for optimism.

The biggest questions I have are 1) what's the target year for really trying to compete? and 2) where is the star power going to come from?

#2 is why I'm so frustrated about Hayes, when we are trotting JT Riddle or Jose Osuna – two players who very well could be decently useful bench pieces in their own way – most days.

I do not really see us getting a lot of value for the various trade pieces that we have. I do think, whatever happens via trades, it is an absolute necessity to clear ground in order to play the young players regularly after the deadline. Tucker has finally started to earn his opportunity of late, but my anti-BC line would be to say that we've sort of wasted three weeks of only intermittent playing time for him to do this.

My sense is that Frazier might pick up half decent assets, and if Kela is healthy, he could too. Perhaps RichRod. Most other options I would assume don't garner much, if anything at all. What I'm most covetous of to be honest are other young players who could use an opportunity to play repeatedly and see what happens – Frazier, Barreto, and Andujar being the three most notable. I don't know that we have the bullets to get any of them, but if Oakland comes knocking about A. Frazier, then I hope we'd take on Barreto in return. He brings the possibility of power which we sorely need and which could help supplement Hayes being more of a 15 HR guy who gives you ace defense. Just thinking out loud, but possibly:

Hayes at third, Tucker/Newman at SS, and Barreto/Newman at 2B, with one of Tucker/Newman being a kind of super utility, and Erik Gonzalez being an excellent defensive depth option. That might not be horrible, but it's a lot of unproven guys and still leaves 1B totally unsolved, as Bell clearly doesn't seem like the answer. What to do about Bell is an entirely different post, but a hot take someone floated to me recently, which I think I'd consider rolling the dice on, is to try and extend him now and buy out one free agent year. I doubt he would be willing to go for it since his value has never been lower, but maybe he takes a guarantee in light of that and you then hope that the contract enables him to relax more or something and find a happy medium as a 1B/DH masher.

Put differently re: Bell, I'm more than ready to move on from him, but trading him for very little is potentially a mistake. Him continuing to suck a lot and then go on a few hot streaks also does very little. If you believe in him a little bit, then express it by offering what probably amounts to a raise over what he'd garner in arbitration in exchange for one year of free agency as an option year or something.

2021, assuming it will be a normal season, was always going to be somewhat more important than 2020 anyways IMO. We have to sort out which players fill which roles as part of a solid, supplementary core and which potential players can become more of the star level talent that can get the team back to decency. I do not really agree with the idea that we need catchers. Organizationally, we could use some, but perhaps the biggest positive story of this miserable season has actually been Stallings. We don't have depth behind him, but if he's healthy, he is a perfectly competent #1A catcher: his defense and framing are absolutely elite and it certainly looks like he can provide average offensive production. The problem is elsewhere in the lineup.

We need pitching, pitching, and more pitching, and then we need actual big offensive production from certain spots in the lineup. The former is not really too much of a surprise given that your top penciled in guys basically everywhere got hurt – even if for many of them, it's still an open question if they would have performed decently. Same goes for offense, except obviously, guys have been healthy and just underperformed like crazy. If the offense had performed even a little bit, I think we'd just have a few more wins to show for it, which concretely only means less or no distance between us and other teams on the Road to Rocker.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Annoying for at least two reasons. Most importantly, Riddle at 3B while Hayes continues to waste away in Altoona. Less so, but I think still worth pointing out, is Tucker in the lineup but continuing not to get a look at SS, which is his natural position.

Look, Tucker might be learning the OF better, and in theory that makes him a little bit more valuable going forward, but I'd sort of say only insofar as you have already made the assessment that his bat will never really arrive. We have seen flashes of a potential star player. They are only flashes, but short stop is one of, if not the most important positions on the team. If you can have a strong offensive and defensive player there, you are really starting well in terms of fielding a competitive team.

My assessment right now is that Newman has scuffled enough that he should be somewhat off the SS-train. At least, I don't think he's the answer as the everyday SS, even though I think he can be useful as the everyday 2B. Gonzalez does have to play somewhere to get reps, so that's an issue and maybe one reason why Tucker is playing the OF still, but I think at a certain point and very soon, if Tucker hits well with the bat, you should just plop him into SS and let him start there for a week or two straight to see what happens. I am presenting the most extreme optimistic case of course, but he might seize it and run with it.

tldr; of me on Tucker is that I think we know what Kevin Newman is and we know what Erik Gonzalez sort of is (and it's much better than most of us including me thought - credit to NH), but we really don't yet know what Tucker is at all. He could be a super utility type, heart and soul player who plays multiple valuable defensive positions, but I'm not sure we're really built to run that kind of player out every day. I want to see him play for a month straight at SS and assess.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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I think its more about waiting until the deadline . 1. The record we started with and 2. Can then clear out the Holland's , Dyson's , etc. While bringing up Hayes after.

It also allows Hayes to spend time away from this losing. We all know how contagious it is..

Seems like the FO is really going for that #1 overall. Unless MLB screws them with a lottery. Because Hayes would be up right now if that wasnt the case. They know how great his defense is and how he would improve our pitching. I say hes up right after deadline. And even if we start winning, id be okay with it. A top 5 pick in this next draft will still be a great one.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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As for Tucker, with such a crowded IF right now and with us having Nick Gonzales, Bae, Peguero, etc who are all top prospects...probably just experimenting. Tucker just happens to be the player whos on the roster now as opposed to the others. Btw, I think he will continue to add power and be a 20+ HR type. That was his scouting report a few years ago. Like you said we've seen it here and there, just needs to find that consistency now.

Id trade Frazier for sure but dont be surprised if they try to sell high on Erik Gonzalez too.

We then have 3B Hayes , SS Tucker , 2B Newman for next season. With Tucker having experience in the OF while the others develop. I havent seen much of Peguero but if Bae continues with his development he could be our starting SS. Not a lot of power but 60 hitter and 70 runner. .400 OBP last season. Either way we have alot of options for middle IF so I dont mind Tucker getting action at Center right now
 
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DJ Spinoza

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This season has broken my brain so much that although I agree with you on a rational level, I would also feel nihilistic glee to see this team rattle off 10 wins in a row somehow and find themselves in a playoff position. Imagine that happening and then winning a World Series with a starting rotation of Kuhl-Williams-Brault and Pat Mears as the closer. It would be incredible.

Even under the old management, the team was like this, where you could get the weird sense that a flaming hot streak was about to happen. I think we could very well rattle another win off today, especially since the Brewers have to be utterly enraged, seeing Cleveland completely sock it to us and then coming in here to be embarrassed.

The best rational take I can give regarding the Road to Rocker is that our pitching should probably save us. The bats are waking up, which is what has finally led to some wins as opposed to the worst winning percentage for a baseball team ever, i.e., an impossibly unsustainable situation. The starters are all half decent but not really good enough to dominate and win a game by themselves. The bullpen is just totally decimated, so on any given night someone will be in danger of giving up a three or four-spot in innings 5/6-9, which will seal losses unless the offense truly explodes.

We have to root for some of these AL teams to get hot so that we can maintain a kind of 4 game cushion from most of them. Before the season I and maybe others made a big deal of saying that we weren't as bad as some of the other bad teams in the league on paper – and maybe it's a hot take, but I would still say it's true, though injuries have complicated things even further. But setting aside whatever Manfred is going to do or not do with the draft, the big key now is really just a question of time. That's why I like the formulation you bring up IE of "no more wins until 20 losses", since the further into the season we can drag our feet and be dead last by 4 games or so, the more difficult it will be for another team to bottom out and get passed us, just due to the number of games remaining and the guarantee that we will keep losing games.

Anyways, I think the deadline could still be important in this regard. Given how depressing things were, it seems possible that two really big offensive performances will lighten the spirits and partially help lead to above-.500 baseball heading towards the deadline, but if Cherington intervenes with as many trades as he can do, even, say moving somebody like Williams or Kuhl which would be a little surprising, then that might interrupt whatever momentum we are gaining. Then inserting the remainder of the prospects into the mix should likely continue last place type results, but you never really know: to me it is entirely within the realm of possibility that Hayes finally gets his call after the deadline and just tears it up in September, but experience points more towards the fact that he'll have ups and downs (which is why he should already be starting on this dead last team as of last week at least....).
 

DJ Spinoza

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No Tucker in the lineup today. There's very little logic to this constant lineup shuffle that Shelton is playing but I suspect more and more that it's part of an indirect tanking strategy. Normally I never support tanking, but I'm willing to acknowledge that in our current situation, it is far better to do whatever we can to secure a top pick since we aren't going anywhere this year and there's not too much baseball left.

I just think it's strategically unwise to waste the opportunity to look at Tucker and Hayes, especially the latter who is doing nothing other than practicing this year. Tucker has shown flashes and is playing well, and I think it's still possible to indirectly tank while keeping him in the lineup. Even if he starts playing like Josh Bell last May, it's only going to go so far in helping us win. I'll defend Polanco until the bitter end, but there's no reason Tucker should be on a bench and guys like Dyson, Riddle, Polanco are playing ahead of him, especially given that it looks like his bat is heating up.

Give him the rest of the season as a trial for a starting spot in the future. With those other guys, best case scenario is that Riddle is a bench option, and Polanco re-establishes some value to be dealt as a rental next year. It should not be rocket science to still get Dyson and Polanco some at-bats while rotating Tucker in extremely often. If it's just a one off day for him on the bench, that's one thing, but he needs to be back in the lineup on Tuesday and then not out of the lineup again for quite a while. He's gotta be playing 6/7 games a week from now on, unless he slumps horribly or something.
 
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