OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[Winger for Hire]

Move Cervelli, sign Mesoraco to backup Diaz and bask in the savings.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We signed Tyler Lyons to a minor league deal. Pretty much Siegrist 2.0, although his problems seemed to be due more to wildness than velocity loss. His numbers after going back to AAA look solid, and it's a no risk signing. I actually like it even though I wouldn't read much into it other than a depth option. A rehabbed Lyons that approaches what he did in 2017 would be the perfect addition to the pen - someone who could go multiple innings and also be a loogy. Has some ok peripherals even last year.

If nothing else, he'll be someone to push Brault in camp.

Have to wonder with the holiday freeze etc whether Tulo just told teams he'd decide in the new year. I'm still not very optimistic. If we were going full steam ahead, I think it would have happened when the rumors kicked up, since there's nowhere else for him to start at SS.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Winger for Hire]

Come on. We all knew as soon as he held a workout the Pirates were basically eliminated.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The chatter is apparently that the Yankees may not even be out on Machado, so it seems likely that he just went with the team who has both some playing time available and a strong WS chance. I still held out some hope, but with the open spot and the Hurdle connection, it should have happened quickly if it was going to happen.

Tulo could very well be toast, but this is kind of a bummer. Seemed like the perfect high upside opportunity that would have brought some excitement into the fold at the very least. Hopefully there's some more to the offseason other than hoping for a good return like Stripling for Cervelli.

I still like Ahmed more than the free agent possibilities, but we definitely need some kind of stopgap coverage at SS.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Yea that’s a f***ing let down. Rich getting richer with a basically free player who may wind up riding the bench for them... When he could’ve actually helped a team like us, significantly.

 

[Winger for Hire]

This is one signing I can't put any blame on the Pirates directly. Tulo had literally his pick of teams because every contract option was the same. It all came down to where Tulo felt comfortable and what teams could give him what he was looking for.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To me, the only thing Tulo signing elsewhere does is that it totally invalidates Rollison as a legitimate source. I'm disappointed, but I'm not mad at the team or anything like that.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I do wonder if they were even interested at this point.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I wonder if playing at PNC compared to Yankee stadium had anything to do with Tulo derision.

Its hard to hit homers at PNC for right handed hitters.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I think that's a good guess, along with just wanting to win. He'll get immediate playing time, and likely some chance to at least stick around for a while even in a utility role. I also wonder if the Pirates were sort of wishy washy on his playing time opportunity. Obviously he had an inside track here, but depending on how that was emphasized, it could have not been as appealing as he'd wanted.

If the Yankees do end up with Machado, you have to wonder how that affects Andujar. Obviously nothing about Tulo really affects him, but if they invest hugely in Machado and already have Torres and several others, who knows?

Here's an outside the box idea: would the Yankees pair Gray with Andujar to really maximize their return in terms of prospects? If so, would you start a package with Keller in that case? It would likely take more than that, and I don't know how well we'd match up for the rest of a trade, but it's definitely an intriguing idea, even if it's sort of blocked by the current array of 3Bs on the team.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'd have a hard time parting with Keller. He's too close, ceiling is too high, and is going to hit the scene right in the sweet spot of the current window. Jamo, (rejuvenated) Archer, (improving) Musgrove, (defying peripherals) Williams, and Keller give a really solid rotation at an affordable price for the next ~3 seasons. There's no real #1, but everyone can pitch at a solid #2 to high end #3 while having Kela, Crick, Vazquez locking down the late innings can lead to some good things.

Of course it's all moot if the offense isn't going to produce runs, which is where Andujar would really, really help this team.

It's an interesting proposition (aside from not being enamored with Sonny). I wouldn't complain (much) if that were to happen, but personally I'd stick to what they have in Keller and run a solid rotation 1 through 5 and hope Hayes forces their hand and Tucker really carries his AFL performance into 2019 and wiggles into the SS picture soon to bolster the lineup internally.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah I am not sure I'd want to go ahead with it, either. Keller seems like he has the prospect pedigree of Jamo without the injuries, and could be viably chipping in as early as July. When we already don't really have the roster space and Hayes behind Moran anyways, it's not the ideal asset management situation.

I suppose it's possible to tinker with using Andujar at 1B, 2B, or perhaps even OF eventually, and the temptation is that he's already proven himself in MLB, but it's a little hard to see the fit, not to mention that the Yankees would likely want Keller + another significant chip in a deal.

I think you'd have to be extremely confident in a projection for Gray, and then it would depend on the other pieces involved. At least hypothetically, it would bolster the current roster and secure an above average position player who might have some more helium for the core, with the prospect of Kuhl being back in the mix for a 2020 rotation. But it seems like a bit of a stretch, and then you have to think about whether you could spin Moran into something of decent value, etc.

In any case, I am increasingly worried that the major remaining offseason question will shape up to be: can we sign Freddy Galvis as a stopgap without shedding Cervelli's contract? Which, if true, is pretty depressing, because 1) that shouldn't be a question financially, and 2) even if it isn't and we signed Galvis, it doesn't do anything more than stabilize the likelihood that we'll be the fourth best team in the division and on the periphery of the WC race if a couple other things break right for us.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah I am not sure I'd want to go ahead with it, either. Keller seems like he has the prospect pedigree of Jamo without the injuries, and could be viably chipping in as early as July. When we already don't really have the roster space and Hayes behind Moran anyways, it's not the ideal asset management situation.

I suppose it's possible to tinker with using Andujar at 1B, 2B, or perhaps even OF eventually, and the temptation is that he's already proven himself in MLB, but it's a little hard to see the fit, not to mention that the Yankees would likely want Keller + another significant chip in a deal.

I think you'd have to be extremely confident in a projection for Gray, and then it would depend on the other pieces involved. At least hypothetically, it would bolster the current roster and secure an above average position player who might have some more helium for the core, with the prospect of Kuhl being back in the mix for a 2020 rotation. But it seems like a bit of a stretch, and then you have to think about whether you could spin Moran into something of decent value, etc.

In any case, I am increasingly worried that the major remaining offseason question will shape up to be: can we sign Freddy Galvis as a stopgap without shedding Cervelli's contract? Which, if true, is pretty depressing, because 1) that shouldn't be a question financially, and 2) even if it isn't and we signed Galvis, it doesn't do anything more than stabilize the likelihood that we'll be the fourth best team in the division and on the periphery of the WC race if a couple other things break right for us.

I just think it's foolish for any National League Team, including the Pirates, to unload prospects in a bidding war on a guy like Andujar. He is a player whose value is maximized in the American League where the DH is an ever-present option.

I do want the Pirates to do something impactful otherwise as we really do not have enough B+ and above-type players on this team to think we can contend for anything, but Andujar wouldn't be the guy I'd go after. I suppose if the price is low enough, then sure but I find it hard to believe an AL team wouldn't be willing to outbid us.

 

[Winger for Hire]

While I'm mostly agreeing, at this point ANY type of MLB proven bat and power source would be more than welcome.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I also brought it up mainly to pass the time as we await whatever depressive mediocrity remains this offseason, although I'll be curious to see how the situation(s) play themselves out. In general, I just think it's not the ideal fit: we couldn't get Andujar when we wanted him and in part got Moran largely for that reason. When you add in the fact that Hayes is our top position prospect, it's just not the right target. I think there are some interesting possibilities, and in general only started thinking about it just because our offensive possibilities are so limited for next year and beyond, but these possibilities would pretty much need to involve spinning Moran for some value elsewhere, as well as a potential different landing spot for Andujar defensively.

I don't necessarily think the book is written on him defensively, but when you start getting into these further contingencies, things get messier. And these things are maybe symptomatic of the entire problem: Andujar could certainly displace Bell, for example, as offensive production should play pretty much anywhere. But whatever situation you try and play out, the logical endpoint is trying to reshuffle a deck of mediocre-to-possibly-ok MLB pieces, which aren't going to do it. You could move Moran or move Bell and probably get reasonable MLB talent back, but it's a lot harder and you'd have less of a position of strength to deal from.

The better approach is fairly obvious, which is that you hope Hayes rises even quicker to force the issue, and then are hopefully figuring out how to reorient the approach from the perspective of your home grown talent that might be more impactful. Realistically, that's probably also the path to take with Keller and the prospects of eventually flipping a pitcher. Right now is not the ideal timing, unless there's some kind of pretty surprising two or three step plan NH has in play, which... can't see it.

The Yankees situation will be interesting in general. I can't see them having a ton of leverage in moving Gray, even though they should be able to get a decent prospect or two in a deal. I'd like to see us involved if for no other reason than it would be a smaller gamble that could pay off: it's possible that he could complete fall off or get injured, but a slightly revamped, NL Gray could help boost a good pitching staff to the next level, and another outcome in that scenario would likely be getting almost the same kind of value in a trade deadline package if we are too far out of the picture or Keller really emerges or something. The Yankees also could add Andujar to the mix, and while I'm sure that could probably entice teams (and perhaps the Reds would be an ideal match there, budging on Trammell in order to get a pitcher and an immediate offensive impact player, even if they have to put him in LF), I still don't see them gaining a lot of leverage.

Regardless, getting involved in the Gray mix and gambling that you might be able to get 3.5/4 WAR out of him seems like one of the few ways to bolster next year's team beyond the solid/average idea of someone like Ahmed or Galvis. Can he be had without even discussing Keller, Hayes, Cruz? Obviously you'd hope so--I'd expect none of the middle infield carousel to really interest NYY, since they'd have to roster them, but the tier below our top prospects is pretty stocked with 45 FV guys, and I'd assume that Escobar, Mitchell, or Reynolds and a lower list flier would be able to get the job done. After all, the original package for Gray was hardly amazing, and now NYY has committed to trading him and he only has one year left.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Regardless, getting involved in the Gray mix and gambling that you might be able to get 3.5/4 WAR out of him seems like one of the few ways to bolster next year's team beyond the solid/average idea of someone like Ahmed or Galvis. Can he be had without even discussing Keller, Hayes, Cruz? Obviously you'd hope so--I'd expect none of the middle infield carousel to really interest NYY, since they'd have to roster them, but the tier below our top prospects is pretty stocked with 45 FV guys, and I'd assume that Escobar, Mitchell, or Reynolds and a lower list flier would be able to get the job done. After all, the original package for Gray was hardly amazing, and now NYY has committed to trading him and he only has one year left.

For me, the Yankees can have any prospect below 5 on this list: MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch
(Not including Reynolds, though, as he kinda seems ticketed to be Dickerson's replacement) I do like Sonny Gray a lot for the Pirates and would definitely take a flyer especially now that we've dumped Nova.

Speaking of Keller, I'd trade him if Chris Taylor were available from LAD. I also really, really dislike losing Taylor Hearn for Kela now. Maybe I'm just overly enamored with Hearn.

 

[Winger for Hire]

There better be a big addon with Taylor in your scenario. Taylor is good, but not straight up for a blue chip pitcher good.

If I'm looking to move Keller, I would want a young, but established position player like Harrison Bader included... in fact I would really consider moving Keller if the Cards were to offer a package of Bader and Elehuris Montero.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Woo! The Buccos are the best at something!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Taylor would certainly be intriguing since he's still so cheap and has several years of control. Losing Hearn is certainly a blow and makes the prospect of shopping Keller more difficult because there's basically nothing behind him at that level, but I still tend to side more on the side of prospects being fickle and to some extent, quantity mattering almost as much as quality, especially if you aren't in full tear down and rebuild mode.

For that reason a hypothetical deal for Taylor could solve some serious short term problems, and not be too terrible value wise. I wonder if a core deal that involves Stripling + Taylor and Cervelli + Keller might be workable? Dodgers get an immediate solution at C while also acquiring a high-end, nearly ready prospect pitcher, and the Pirates solve a couple offensive issues while also getting another potential #2/3 type with lots of control. Would temper the risk slightly for the Dodgers of a Cervelli for Stripling deal, which is something that the Pirates should obviously do straight up, while adding more of an improvement to the 2019 roster for the Pirates.

I understand being especially protective of Keller, but a guy like Taylor is still young enough and weirdly controllable that he fits in exactly with the current core. From our perspective this secures two additional young roster players instead of one prospect who might be impactful immediately and a catcher we hope will stay healthy to probably trade in July anyways. There's maybe some more value to be squeezed out, but Taylor's a quite useful player bringing exactly what we need. Maybe there's a third player we could kick in to get the Dodgers to include Yadier Alvarez, and have another crack at a Hearn type but from the right side. Keller has perhaps an understated ceiling, but I don't know how commanding his value would be in a trade, and certainly getting controllable and proven above average players would be nothing to scoff at.

I haven't seen much to indicate that the Dodgers would shop Taylor, but I can see how he winds up without as much playing time as he should have if they sign Harper. I like the idea of targeting him, Keller or no.

 

[ChaosAgent]

DJ, I agree:

Cervelli + Keller for Stripling + Taylor would be a good framework. Taylor provides much needed above-averageness at a key position. Keller is still an unknown. The #5-#10-ranked pitching prospect in baseball doesn't have all that much more value than 3 years of Chris Taylor. Pitching prospects are just more volatile than hitting prospects. It's why Hayes has more value than Keller even if many people think Keller could be the better player.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I guess I'm a little extra protective over Keller because pitchers, while indeed being the more volatile prospects, command a bigger price when they do hit and it seems to be harder to strike gold nowadays with under-the-radar pitchers with the focus on atomic level numbers (spin rates on all pitches, Bauer Units, new training methods to unlock that last 3-4 MPH, etc) that kept some guys hidden longer.

With the current ownership and budget, I think it's more beneficial to keep and groom a blue chip pitcher and hope to hit on a Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Kris Davis, Jose Martinez, Scooter Gennett, Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames, etc. I am a big Chris Taylor fan, but, personally, I feel if you're going to move Keller you need to return someone with an elite tool. Taylor doesn't have an elite tool to lean on. That's not saying I wouldn't take him in a heartbeat, just that I'm hesitant to sign-off on this thought exercise trade.

Also, I appreciate the conversation with you guys. It's nice to have a Bucco conversation without the words "apologist", "idiot", "Nutting" being included and focusing on baseball. You guys help make the barren winter months brighter and the bridge to opening day shorter.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I wonder if the Dodgers would consider Taylor for Cervelli straight up? Not the best asset management, but neither is the rumored willingness to talk Stripling in such a deal. Maybe a flier prospect or even adding a Kramer to the mix for them as a depth option could sway it.

It seems like we're a good match in general for a trade. Miami still wants the world for Realmuto, and they could just sign somebody, but with a top prospect on the horizon, a stopgap is ideal for them. Cervelli's health makes it dicey, but Taylor's effectively a luxury utility player for them if they sign Harper. That's a good thing for a top team to have, for sure, but they have some reasonable depth at the various positions in the minors, and if they got 2018 Cervelli, they'd be in extremely good shape to try and break through and win it all. It seems like the kind of risk worth taking if the other pieces are right, and for the Pirates it solves a number of short and medium range issues, and mitigates losing a key immediate piece to a weak offense.

 

[Winger for Hire]

He said looking in the direction of Southwest PA...

ETA-

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I forget what I was reading, I think something on FG in the fantasy section, but I've actually come around to the idea that reviving his sinker will be the key for Archer.